市场定价由"通胀"初步切换至"衰退"逻辑 —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 2 期） 分析师：许冬石、吴京 CGS-NDI 周度报告 市场定价由"通胀"初步切换至"衰退"逻辑 —— 资本市场周报（2026 年第 2 期） 2026 年 3 月 30 日 核心观点 分析师 许冬石 ：010-8092 7609 ：xudongshi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515030003 吴京 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ：010-8092 7702 ：wujing_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523080001 研究助理：郝安琪 美以伊冲突以来全球主要股指涨跌幅情况 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 本周焦点（3 月 23 日-29 日）：特朗普"压力线"或已逐渐显现。自美以伊 冲突升级以来，原油价格与美国国债收益率走势大体一致，而每当原油价格、 美债收益率上升至一定敏感区间（如 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the "Tech-7" group, which includes major companies: Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Oracle (ORCL) [2][19][29]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF) Growth**: The Tech-7 is expected to generate USD1.3 trillion in OCF in 2026, an increase of approximately USD300 billion from 2025, driven by nearly USD500 billion in additional revenue [14][39]. - **Capital Expenditure (Capex) Allocation**: In 2026, 62% of non-operating cash expenses will be allocated to capex and investments, up from 52% in 2025. Shareholder returns (buybacks and dividends) are expected to decrease as a percentage but may increase in absolute terms [2][14][27]. - **Revenue Growth**: Tech-7 revenue is projected to grow by 21.5% in 2026, reaching USD2.8 trillion, compared to 16.5% growth in 2025 [30][22]. - **AI Impact**: The AI megacycle is driving demand for compute capacity, benefiting companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft, which are well-positioned due to their infrastructure and compute exposure [4][13][20]. Financial Health and Flexibility - **Cash Reserves**: By the end of 2026, Tech-7 is expected to have a cash balance of USD196 billion, down from USD204 billion in 2025, despite a significant increase in capex [15][39]. - **Debt Management**: The Tech-7 group has identified USD126 billion in off-balance sheet Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) debt, which provides flexibility in financing [3][20]. - **Shareholder Returns**: Buybacks are still 2.3 times higher than necessary to offset dilution from share-based compensation, indicating strong cash management [3][39]. Company-Specific Insights - **Alphabet (GOOGL)**: Expected OCF of USD186 billion in 2026, driven by cloud and AI revenue growth. Capex is projected to increase significantly, reducing cash available for shareholder distribution [51][52]. - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Anticipated OCF of USD178 billion in 2026, with a capex budget of USD200 billion, primarily for AWS. Amazon does not pay dividends, focusing on long-term growth [57][58][59]. - **Apple (AAPL)**: Expected OCF of USD149 billion in 2026, with a high shareholder return through buybacks and dividends. Capex remains low compared to peers [64][66]. - **Meta (META)**: Projected OCF of USD132 billion in 2026, with a significant increase in capex due to AI investments. Share buybacks are expected to decrease [72][74]. Additional Important Points - **Market Sentiment**: Despite strong performance in 2024 and 2025, there are concerns about rising capex budgets and debt levels, as AI monetization is still in early stages [17][18]. - **Long-term Growth Strategy**: Companies are adopting a "re-invest first" philosophy, focusing on internal growth and capacity expansion rather than immediate shareholder returns [58][60]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial projections for the Tech-7 companies, highlighting their strategies and market positioning in the evolving tech landscape.

27 Mar 2026 10:00:00 ET │ 8 pages Flash | Global Semiconductors Assessing TurboQuant's Impact: The Jevons Paradox CITI'S TAKE Despite near-term market turbulence following the introduction of TurboQuant, we believe the continued advancement of KV Cache compression technology such as TurboQuant will accelerate AI adoption, ultimately serving as a positive catalyst for memory demand. As illustrated by the Jevons Paradox, increased compute efficiency has historically triggered stronger memory demand. Moreover, ...

Turboquant 专家解读小范围 - 存储系列专家 20260329 （training-free）以及对 GPU 和 TPU 等加速器友好的特性，在量化技术的多 个关键维度上达到了理想的平衡。 论文的核心结论指出，该技术在码率失真关 系上能接近信息论的下界。在 KV Cache 的实验中，每个通道使用约 3.5 比特 即可实现接近无损的量化效果，在 2.5 比特时也仅出现轻微的性能退化，这显 著优于传统认知中低于 4 比特量化会带来较大损失的普遍看法。 总结而言， TurboQuant 是一项推理基础设施的压缩技术，它将高维向量的低比特压缩从 一个偏重工程技巧的领域，提升到了一个有理论边界、工程可行且理论上最优 的层面，并具备跨场景复用的潜力。 TurboQuant 的技术价值体现在哪些方面？它是否为单点技术创新？ TurboQuant 的技术价值在于它在量化领域的多个关键特性上实现了最优平衡， 具体体现在：它既能做到在线可用，又与数据无关，无需额外训练或校准即可 处理任何向量；同时，它对现有的 GPU 和 TPU 硬件非常友好，并且在理论层 面达到了当前的最优水平。 该技术的创新并非源于单一技术突破， ...

要点 Omdia 预测，到2027年Netflix全球月活跃用户将突破10亿，而YouTube全球用户规模预计将接近30亿。 这一最新数据由Omdia媒体与娱乐业务负责人Maria Rua Aguete在Series Mania大会上发布，展示了全球平台如 何重塑欧洲的视频消费格局。 在与YouTube法国及南欧区董事总经理Justine Ryst的对话环节中，Aguete指出，Netflix和YouTube已成为法国用 户观看视频服务的首选平台，领先于传统广播电视和付费电视平台。其中，Netflix以18%的占比位居第一， YouTube以12%位列第二。 主题为 "如何将YouTube打造为剧集资产？" 的会议环节强调了YouTube在内容生态中的角色正在不断演变。尽 管YouTube与法国主要广播平台（如France TV、TF1+和 M6+）的受众存在明显重叠，但数据显示，YouTube 仍有相当一部分用户尚未使用这些平台，这使其成为扩大内容触达范围、获取增量受众的重要平台。 这种双重动态使YouTube同时扮演两种角色：既是补充型平台——帮助内容在现有电视观众中扩大触达；也是 通向新观众的入口，吸引 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reactions - Power stocks declined across the board, with Huadian International down 5.86%, Longyuan Power down 3.62%, Huaneng International down 1.98%, and China Resources Power down 2.15% [1] - Shoucheng Holdings fell nearly 6% after reporting a revenue of HKD 1.437 billion for 2025, an increase of 18.24% year-on-year, and a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.0047 per share [1] - Meili Tianyuan Medical Health dropped over 11% post-earnings, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 30%, despite reporting a revenue of approximately CNY 3 billion, a 16.7% increase year-on-year [2] - Brilliance China experienced a drop of over 10%, reporting a revenue of CNY 1.182 billion for 2025, a 7.84% increase, but a net profit decline of 35.97% [2] - Photovoltaic stocks fell sharply, with Xinte Energy down 6.09% and Junda Co. down 5.04%, following the announcement of a 9% VAT export tax rebate cancellation on solar products [2] Group 2: Company Earnings and Financial Results - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of CNY 144.145 billion for the year, a slight increase of 4.49%, but a net profit decline of 13.39% [3] - Yadea Holdings saw a rise of over 5% after announcing expected net profits of no less than CNY 2.9 billion for 2025, compared to CNY 1.27 billion in 2024 [3] - CRRC Corporation reported a revenue of CNY 273.063 billion for 2025, a 10.79% increase, but a net profit increase of only 6.40% [4] - Angelalign reported a total case count of 532,400 for 2025, a 48.1% increase, with revenue rising 37.8% to USD 370 million and net profit increasing 163% to USD 26.3 million [4] - Weigao Group's revenue was approximately CNY 13.389 billion, a 2.3% increase, but net profit fell by 22% [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Precious metals sector strengthened, with Coeur Mining up 5.94% and Pan American Silver up 4.13%, as gold prices surged over 3% to USD 4,538.25 per ounce [5] - Argan's stock surged 37.91% after reporting Q4 revenue of USD 262.1 million, exceeding market expectations [5] - Unity Software rose 13.54% after strong Q1 2026 financial performance expectations, with projected revenue between USD 505 million and USD 508 million [6] - AstraZeneca's stock increased by 2.74% following the approval of a new treatment for breast cancer in China [8] - Major U.S. indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.8%, as concerns about economic downturns increased due to geopolitical tensions [8]

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, representing a major shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the multi-trillion-dollar potential of AI, suggesting a broad consensus on its economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is redefining work, learning, and creativity, leading to increased interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that may play a crucial role in the AI revolution, with its technology posing a threat to competitors [4] - Prominent figures in technology and investment, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a significant advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8] Market Predictions - The anticipated value of AI technology could lead to a reconfiguration of business, government, and consumer interactions globally [2] - The narrative suggests that investors may regret not investing in certain stocks associated with this AI revolution in the near future [9]

Core Insights - Abrams Capital Management reported an equity portfolio valued at approximately $5.67 billion, reflecting a concentrated, high-conviction value investing strategy [1][12] - The portfolio is focused on a small number of core positions, targeting undervalued businesses with strong asset bases and durable cash flows [2][12] Portfolio Overview - Estimated Portfolio Value: ~$5.67 billion [4] - Top 10 Holdings account for approximately 99% of the portfolio, indicating extreme concentration [4] - The portfolio exhibits very low turnover, with minimal changes in holdings, emphasizing long-term investments [3][12] Top Holdings - Loar Holdings (LOAR): ~$2.18 billion, ~38.4% of the portfolio [4] - Lithia Motors (LAD): ~$828 million, ~14.6% of the portfolio [4] - Alphabet (Class A) (GOOGL): ~$600 million, ~10.6% of the portfolio [4] - Tempur Sealy International (TPX): ~$518 million, ~9.1% of the portfolio [4] - Asbury Automotive Group (ABG): ~$501 million, ~8.8% of the portfolio [4] Recent Activity - No major new positions were initiated during the quarter, reflecting a patient approach focused on existing high-conviction holdings [6] - Notable trims included modest reductions in Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META), indicating tactical adjustments rather than a shift in long-term views [7][8] - A full exit from Circle Internet Group (CRCL) suggests capital redeployment into higher-conviction core holdings [11] Investment Themes - The portfolio emphasizes cyclical, asset-driven, and consumer-oriented businesses, with selective exposure to dominant technology platforms [5][10] - Key sectors include automotive retail, consumer durables, and housing-related exposure, predominantly focused on U.S. markets [16]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping nearly 7% last week and over 26% year-to-date, despite reporting strong financial results driven by its cloud operations [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter, Microsoft reported a 17% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $81.3 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share rising 24% to $4.14 [4]. - The company's cloud operations were the primary growth driver, with Microsoft Cloud revenue increasing 26% year-over-year to $51.5 billion, and "Azure and other cloud services" revenue climbing 39% [5]. Competitive Landscape - Microsoft is facing intensified competition in the cloud market, particularly from Alphabet, which reported a 48% year-over-year growth in Google Cloud revenue, reaching $17.7 billion, outpacing Azure's growth [8]. - Despite Microsoft's cloud business being larger, it is losing relative momentum to Alphabet, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [9]. Risks from AI - The rise of AI poses structural risks to Microsoft's traditional software subscription model, particularly in its productivity and business processes segment, which generated $34.1 billion in revenue [11]. - As AI systems become more capable, they may reduce the need for human workers, potentially decreasing the demand for Microsoft 365 commercial seats and introducing deflationary pressure on the subscription model [12]. - Increased competition driven by AI could lead to reduced pricing power and margins in the software sector, impacting overall profitability [13]. Valuation Considerations - Microsoft stock is currently trading at approximately $357 per share, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 22, which may appear attractive compared to historical valuations [15]. - However, the company faces rising capital expenditures, intensified competition, and long-term risks from AI, suggesting that the stock may deserve to trade at a lower valuation [16]. - Investors are advised to consider waiting for a more significant discount before purchasing shares, given the rapid market share gains by Alphabet's Google Cloud and the associated risks [17].

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet Inc. and Meta have been found liable for neglecting the harmful impacts of their social media designs on young users, with a verdict that may influence future similar cases [1][2]. Legal Case Summary - The jury ruled that both companies must pay a total of $6 million in damages, with Alphabet responsible for $1.8 million and Meta for $4.2 million [2]. - The case involved a 20-year-old woman, Kaley, who claimed addiction to YouTube and Instagram due to their attention-grabbing designs, leading to the jury's finding of negligence [4]. Company Overview - Alphabet Inc. owns several major platforms, including Google Search, Google Maps, Gmail, and YouTube, and is recognized for its advancements in cloud computing, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence [5].