Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company HSAI.US, with a target price raised to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant milestone by recording its first profitable quarter in Q4 2024, with revenue of RMB 720 million, a 28% year-over-year increase, and a gross margin of 39.0% [10][12]. - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach RMB 30-35 billion, with substantial growth in non-GAAP net profit and GAAP profit projected between RMB 200-350 million [10][12]. - The domestic market for intelligent driving is accelerating, and the company is expanding its overseas customer base, which is expected to support continued growth in ADAS lidar shipments [10][12]. - The company is also seeing rapid growth in its robotics applications, with expectations of nearly 200,000 units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to its gross margin [10][12]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 1,877 million in 2023, RMB 2,077 million in 2024, RMB 3,058 million in 2025, RMB 4,231 million in 2026, and RMB 6,434 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][11]. - The expected net profit (loss) transitions from a loss of RMB 476 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1,054 million by 2027, indicating a significant turnaround [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate slightly, starting at 35.2% in 2023 and expected to be 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 16.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a target price of $20.0 [10][14][15]. - The company’s market capitalization is currently estimated at $2,034 million, with an average trading volume of $51.9 million over the past three months [5][10].

2025 年 03 月 12 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 规模效应凸显构筑高壁垒，龙头坐享智驾行业红利 ——禾赛（HSAI）2024 年业绩点评 7,100-7,400 万美元），同比增长约 45%-50%。 | 相对纳斯达克指数表现 | | | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 禾赛 | 40.90% | 106.70% | 318.06% | | 纳斯达克 100 | -10.94% | -9.32% | 7.54% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/11 | | 当前价格（美元） | | | 24.08 | | 52 周价格区间（美元） | | | 15.29-24.18 | | 总市值（百万美元） | | | 3,069.68 | | 流通市值（百万美元） | | | 3,069.68 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 12,748 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Hesai Tech [2][15] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 720 million yuan in Q4 2024, representing a 28% year-over-year increase and a 33% quarter-over-quarter increase, with a gross profit margin of 39.0% [15] - The company is expected to reach full profitability in 2025, with projected revenue of 3 to 3.5 billion yuan and a GAAP net profit of 200 to 350 million yuan [15] - The delivery volume of LiDAR products reached 222,000 units in Q4 2024, a 153% year-over-year increase, with ADAS deliveries accounting for 87% [15] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.228 billion, 4.225 billion, and 5.355 billion yuan respectively, with GAAP net profits expected to be 226 million, 382 million, and 708 million yuan [15] - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 40% for 2025 [15] - The company has a market capitalization of 3.07 billion USD and a current stock price of 24.08 USD [2] Market Position - The company is the largest revenue scale and the earliest to achieve profitability among all LiDAR companies [15] - The JT series of mini super-hemispherical 3D LiDAR for robotics is expected to see significant growth, with over 20,000 units delivered in December 2024 alone [15] - The target price is set at 21.4 USD per share, based on a 6.0X PS valuation for 2025 [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to the company with a target price of US$25.00, up from a prior target price of US$23.00 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high of 222,054 LiDAR units shipped in 4Q24, leading to a total revenue increase of 33.4% QoQ to RMB702 million, and achieved its first quarterly GAAP net profit of RMB147 million [4][5]. - For 2025, the company anticipates LiDAR shipments between 1.2 million to 1.5 million units, driven by strong demand from major clients and new product launches [6][9]. - The management expressed confidence in maintaining a gross margin of around 40% despite a projected decline in average selling price (ASP) due to product mix changes [9][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB2,077 million in 2024 to RMB3,440 million in 2025, with a projected net profit of RMB265 million for 2025 [7][9]. - The company aims for a non-GAAP net profit of RMB350 million to RMB500 million in 2025, significantly exceeding consensus estimates [9][11]. Shipment and Product Mix - The company expects to ship 1.0 million to 1.3 million units of ADAS LiDAR and around 200,000 units of robotics LiDAR in 2025, with new products contributing significantly to growth [6][11]. - The ASP for ADAS LiDAR is projected to decline to RMB2,300 to RMB2,500 in 2025, down from over RMB4,000 in 2024, due to a shift towards more affordable products [9][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation methodology has shifted from price-to-sales (P/S) to price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples, with a target price of US$25.00 based on a 25x 2026E P/E ratio [4][11]. - The current multiples for the company are lower than its competitors, indicating potential undervaluation [11].

规模效应助力全年盈利，机器人雷达快速放量 禾赛(HSAI.O) 登记编号 S0880523110003 本报告导读： 盈利能力大超预期。智驾平权快速推进，ADAS 雷达下探至 10 万级别车型，ATX 系列加速渗透；机器人雷达快速放量，开启第二增长曲线。 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 2024-03-11 2024-04-01 2024-04-19 2024-05-09 2024-05-30 2024-06-20 2024-07-11 2024-07-31 2024-08-20 2024-09-10 2024-09-30 2024-10-18 2024-11-07 2024-11-27 2024-12-18 2025-01-10 2025-01-31 2025-02-21 52周股价走势图 HSAI 纳斯达克综指 ——禾赛科技 FY24Q4 业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) | | | | --- | ...

跨越2030年的多年长期合作项目。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，禾赛科技日前宣布，与一家欧洲顶级主机厂达成了具有里程碑意义的多年独家定 点合作，为其下一代汽车平台提供高性能超远距激光雷达，覆盖其燃油车和新能源汽车的多款车型。 禾赛累计量产定点车型突破100款 新获三家国内头部车企的十余款车型 热门 IPO | 小马智行 | 地平线 文远知行_ | 黑芝麻智能 | | --- | --- | --- | | 手戈平 | 老铺黄金 小菜园 | 美的集团 | | 极智嘉 | 明略科技 特斯联 | 手桌 | 值得一提的是，这是一个跨越2030年的多年长期合作项目，也是至今为止海外前装量产激光雷达领 域规模最大的订单。 禾赛联合创始人及CEO李一帆表示，"此次长期合作项目，不仅是对禾赛极致性能与卓越质量的高度 认可，更是对禾赛产品实力的有力证明。这充分表明我们的产品能够满足国际顶级汽车主机厂的严苛 标准，也彰显了客户对我们未来发展的坚定信心。我们深感荣幸能够凭借创新的激光雷达技术，为未 来出行注入强大动力，这一技术将在传统燃油车与电动汽车平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) and raises the target price to $20.0, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a 2025 adjusted target P/E of 48.0x [1][5][10]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology achieved a revenue of RMB 720 million in Q4 2024, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, and became the first profitable manufacturer of automotive lidar [10][12]. - The company expects revenue to reach RMB 3.0-3.5 billion in 2025, with significant growth in both Non-GAAP and GAAP net profits [10][12]. - The domestic push for intelligent driving and successful overseas customer expansion are expected to drive continued growth in lidar shipments for passenger vehicles [10][12]. - The robotics application market is rapidly expanding, with expectations for nearly 200,000 lidar units shipped in 2025, contributing positively to the company's gross margin [10][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Hesai Technology from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,877 million - 2024: RMB 2,077 million - 2025E: RMB 3,058 million - 2026E: RMB 4,231 million - 2027E: RMB 6,434 million - The expected revenue growth rates are 56% for 2023, 11% for 2024, 47% for 2025, 38% for 2026, and 52% for 2027 [2][11]. - The gross margin is projected to be 35.2% in 2023, increasing to 42.6% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 39.2% by 2027 [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a revenue growth rate of 30% from 2030 to 2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3.5%, resulting in a target price of $20.0 [10][14][15]. - The WACC is calculated at 16.8%, with a beta of 1.49 and an equity risk premium of 11.2% [14][15].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved record net revenues of RMB2 billion (USD285 million), marking the highest in the global LiDAR industry [39] - Shipments exceeded 500,000 units in 2024, more than doubling the total from 2023, with December alone setting an industry record of 100,000 monthly shipments [39] - The company reported a full-year non-GAAP net profit of RMB14 million (USD1.9 million), a significant improvement from a non-GAAP net loss of RMB241 million (USD34 million) in 2023 [41] - The blended gross margin for Q4 2024 was 39%, down from the previous quarter due to a shift in product mix [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shipped over 20,000 units to its robotics business in December 2024, indicating significant growth in this sector [40] - For 2025, the company projects total shipments of 1.2 million to 1.5 million units, with nearly 200,000 units expected to come from high-margin robotic LiDAR [8][9] - The ATX LiDAR, priced at approximately $200, is anticipated to contribute significantly to total shipments in 2025, with expectations of high adoption rates among OEMs [44][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The adoption of ADAS in China is projected to grow from 8% in 2023 to 70% by 2030, indicating a transformative decade ahead for the industry [10] - LiDAR integration in EVs in China is expected to surge from 8% in 2023 to 20% in 2025 and then to 56% by 2030 [13] - The company has secured design wins for 120 vehicle models across 22 OEMs worldwide, including 9 out of the top 10 largest automakers by market cap in China [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its leadership in the LiDAR market by focusing on the growing demand for ADAS and robotics applications [6][29] - The strategy includes launching new production lines in Q1 2025, with an expected annualized production capacity of 2 million units by the end of the year [29] - The company is committed to lowering barriers to LiDAR adoption and driving technological equality, with a focus on cost-effective solutions [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving GAAP profitability of RMB200 million to RMB350 million in 2025, with non-GAAP profits projected to soar to RMB350 million to RMB500 million [50] - The company anticipates a strong year in 2025, driven by increased demand from both ADAS and robotics sectors [42] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a healthy gross margin of around 40% while continuing to invest in R&D [49][65] Other Important Information - The company has deepened collaborations with major clients such as BYD and Great Wall Motors, which are ramping up their strategic upgrades in intelligent driving technologies [24][25] - The JT Mini LiDAR is being positioned as a leading product in the robotics market, with significant orders expected in 2025 [31][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for 2025 and quarterly volume trajectory - Management provided revenue guidance of RMB520 million to RMB540 million for Q1 2025, with expectations of approximately 200,000 units shipped [55][56] - The ATX is expected to have an annual price decline, while gross profit margins are anticipated to remain close to 40% [58][59] Question: Long-term potential of the robotics LiDAR market - Management indicated that the robotics market could be several times larger than the passenger vehicle business, with high margins expected to persist [71][76] Question: Further cost reduction and technology advancements - Management noted limited room for further cost reductions on the ATX platform, emphasizing the importance of maintaining product reliability and performance [94][95] Question: ADAS LiDAR adoption in overseas markets - Management clarified that LiDAR is applicable to both EV and ICE vehicles, and the company is optimistic about growth prospects in overseas markets [130] Question: Long-term competitive landscape of ADAS LiDAR market - Management acknowledged that while exclusivity with OEMs is not guaranteed, the company's performance leadership and cost competitiveness are key advantages [140][141]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology (HSAI) for the first time [3]. Core Insights - Hesai Technology is a leading player in the LiDAR market with advanced technology and extensive collaboration with downstream customers. The company has secured over 100 pre-installed production models from 22 major OEM clients, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for automotive and robotic LiDAR in China [3]. - The report forecasts Hesai's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be approximately 2.09 billion, 3.27 billion, and 4.66 billion CNY, corresponding to 290 million, 450 million, and 640 million USD, respectively. The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 7.6, 4.9, and 3.4 for the same years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. LiDAR Market Leadership and Product Matrix - Hesai Technology, established in 2014, is recognized as the first publicly listed LiDAR company in China, focusing on advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles. The company has a comprehensive product matrix covering various applications, including ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics [17][18]. - The company has developed a complete range of products, including ATX, AT128, and PANDAR series, catering to different distance and application needs [20][21]. 2. Demand from Automotive and Robotics - The report highlights the significant growth potential for LiDAR in the automotive sector, with a projected market size exceeding 3.6 billion USD by 2029, driven by strong demand in China [52][54]. - The penetration of LiDAR in lower-priced vehicles is expected to increase, with prices for solid-state LiDAR dropping to around 200 USD, making advanced driving solutions more accessible [56]. 3. Self-Built Capacity and In-House Chip Development - Hesai has established a fully integrated manufacturing center, enabling it to maintain quality and efficiency in production. The company has filed 1,565 patents in key technology areas, ensuring a competitive edge [9][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-developed chips in enhancing product performance and reducing costs, contributing to the company's technological moat [3][9]. 4. Revenue Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects a recovery in revenue growth, with a forecasted total revenue of 1.36 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [26]. - Hesai is expected to achieve profitability under non-GAAP measures in 2024, marking a significant milestone as the first LiDAR company to do so globally [26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hesai Technology, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Views - Hesai Technology is a leader in the lidar industry with advanced technology and extensive collaboration with downstream customers. The company has secured over 100 pre-installed production models from 22 major OEM clients, positioning it to benefit from the growing demand for automotive and robotic lidar in China [3]. - The report forecasts Hesai Technology's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be approximately 2.09 billion, 3.27 billion, and 4.66 billion CNY, corresponding to 290 million, 450 million, and 640 million USD, respectively. The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 7.6, 4.9, and 3.4 for the same years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Lidar Leader with Comprehensive Product Matrix - Hesai Technology, established in 2014, is a leading lidar R&D and manufacturing company, with products widely used in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), autonomous vehicles, and various intelligent robotic applications [17]. - The company has developed a complete product line with eight series to meet different needs in ADAS, autonomous driving, and industrial applications [18][19]. 2. Automotive and Robotics Demand Driving Lidar Growth - The lidar market is expected to reach a trillion-dollar scale, with significant growth in the automotive sector, particularly in passenger vehicles and Robotaxi applications. The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% for the global lidar market from 2023 to 2029 [43][52]. - In 2024, the installation of lidar in Chinese passenger vehicles is projected to reach 1.595 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 109.3% [52]. 3. Self-Built Capacity and Self-Developed Chips - Hesai Technology has established a fully integrated lidar manufacturing center, ensuring high-quality production through rigorous testing. The company has applied for 1,565 patents in key lidar technology areas, maintaining a technological edge [9][3]. 4. Revenue Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that Hesai Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be 1.36 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The company aims to achieve profitability under non-GAAP standards in 2024, becoming the first lidar company to do so globally [26][30].