1. 1月23日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.23%，标普500指数期货跌0.11%，纳指期货跌0.18%。 | ■ US 30 | 49,281.00 | 49,449.00 | 49,234.30 | -103.00 | -0.23% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,905.70 | 6,930.90 | 6,893.40 | -7.70 | -0.11% | | ■ US Tech 100 | 25,471.90 | 25,592.10 | 25,401.70 | -46.40 | -0.18% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.04%，英国富时100指数涨0.04%，法国CAC40指数跌0.40%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.41%。 | 德国DAX30 1 | 24,865.91 | 24,909.91 | 24,795.67 | -10.33 | -0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 英国富时100 | 10,151.65 ...

Intel stock was falling as it faces headwinds from soaring memory-chip prices, which could hit other companies such as Apple. ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock has dropped 13% despite beating expectations for the fifth consecutive quarter, primarily due to strong AI demand in PCs and data centers, but first-quarter guidance is weak due to supply constraints [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Intel's manufacturing execution and product pipeline are not keeping pace with industry demands, leading to a disconnect between promise and reality [2][3] - The company is facing challenges in competing with leaders like Taiwan Semiconductor, AMD, and Nvidia while trying to maintain flat or reduced expenses [3] Group 2: Market Position and Competitors - Competitors such as Nvidia and AMD are better positioned to meet the current demand, which may hinder Intel's market performance [3] - Intel's stock has seen significant price increases in anticipation of its ability to compete with Taiwan Semiconductor, but manufacturing yields are currently below expectations [6][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - It is projected that Intel may take until 2028 to realize its manufacturing promises, indicating a long road ahead for the company [7] - The stock is currently rated as underperforming with a price objective of $40, reflecting concerns over its high price-to-earnings ratio compared to market leaders [4]

I've been bullish on Intel Corporation ( INTC ) since late 2024, after Intel began a large reorganization, changing itself to better adapt to the way technology is moving, away from CPU-heavy cloud operations to GPU-heavy cloud operations. Since then, operations have been "gettingNewsletter Author | Investment Advisor | Top 5% of Experts on TipRanks | Long Signal, Short Noise | The Macro Obsession newsletter is a weekly brief on current events and trends in finance, tech, and the real economy. I am a macro- ...

Weather Impact on Retail - A winter storm is expected to affect a significant portion of the U.S., potentially impacting consumer behavior and retail sales [2][3] - Costco (COST) is anticipated to benefit from increased sales as consumers engage in pantry-loading ahead of the storm, similar to past events [4] - Anecdotal evidence shows crowded Costco stores in states like Texas and Florida, with shares up 13% year-to-date [5] Restaurant and Retail Sector Challenges - Dine-in restaurants and discretionary retail are likely to face revenue headwinds due to consumers staying indoors during the storm [5][6] - Several restaurant companies have previously reported traffic declines during severe winter weather [6] Capital One Acquisition - Capital One (COF) has announced the acquisition of fintech company Brex for $5.15 billion, with the deal structured as 50% cash and 50% stock [7][8] - This acquisition aims to enhance Capital One's capabilities in serving corporate clients through Brex's technology for corporate cards and expense management [8] Intel Earnings Report - Intel (INTC) reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results but provided a Q1 outlook that fell below analyst expectations, leading to a 12% drop in premarket shares [9][10] - The company expects Q1 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected to break even [10]

Group 1: Weather Impact on Retail - A winter storm is expected to affect a significant portion of the U.S., potentially impacting consumer behavior and retail sales [2][3] - Costco (COST) is anticipated to benefit from increased sales as consumers engage in pantry loading in preparation for the storm, similar to past events [4] - Anecdotal evidence shows crowded Costco stores in states like Texas and Georgia, with shares of Costco up 13% year-to-date [5] Group 2: Restaurant Sector Challenges - Dine-in restaurants and discretionary retail are likely to face revenue headwinds due to consumers sheltering indoors during the storm [5] - Several restaurant companies, including Dunkin' and McDonald's, have previously noted that severe winter weather negatively impacts customer traffic [6] Group 3: Capital One Acquisition - Capital One (COF) has agreed to acquire fintech company Brex for $5.15 billion, with the deal structured as 50% cash and 50% stock [7][8] - This acquisition aims to enhance Capital One's capabilities in serving corporate clients, particularly in corporate card issuance and expense management [8] Group 4: Intel Earnings Report - Intel (INTC) reported stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings but provided a Q1 revenue outlook below analyst expectations, leading to a 12% drop in premarket shares [9][10] - The company expects Q1 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share anticipated to break even, below the expected $0.08 [10]

Plus, soaring natural gas, Intel stock sinks ...

Core Viewpoint - Intel Corporation's shares fell over 12% in premarket trading following a significant drop of 14% after the fourth-quarter earnings release, despite beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings per share. The decline was primarily driven by a bleak first-quarter forecast and ongoing manufacturing issues highlighted by CEO Lip-Bu Tan [1][2]. Financial Performance - Intel reported fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $13.4 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of 15 cents compared to the expected 8 cents. However, the company recorded a net loss of $600 million, or 12 cents per diluted share, a significant decline from a net loss of $100 million, or 3 cents per share, in the same period last year [3][4]. - The Data Center and AI segment generated $4.7 billion in revenue, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by rising investments in AI infrastructure [4]. - The Client Computing Group's revenue fell 7% year-over-year to $8.2 billion, attributed to declining demand in the PC market [5]. - The foundry business reported $4.5 billion in revenue, although some of this revenue was related to internal accounting for Intel's own chip production [6]. Guidance and Challenges - Intel's first-quarter guidance projected revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with breakeven adjusted earnings per share, falling short of analyst expectations of 5 cents earnings per share on $12.51 billion in sales [7]. - The company anticipates a loss of $0.21 per share for Q1, highlighting significant challenges in CEO Lip-Bu Tan's turnaround efforts. Tan acknowledged production difficulties and emphasized the need for improved production efficiency [8]. - Investors expressed disappointment over the lack of updates regarding new customers for the chip fabrication division and minimal information on buyers for the next-generation 14A manufacturing process technology [8]. Stock Performance - Intel's stock, which had increased by 147% over the past year due to investments from Nvidia, SoftBank, and the U.S. government, closed at $54.32 on January 22 before dropping to $46.94 in premarket trading on January 23, marking a 13.59% decline [9].

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The core PCE price index rose +0.2% month-over-month and +2.8% year-over-year in November, aligning with expectations [1] - Q3 GDP growth was revised higher to +4.4% quarter-over-quarter annualized, surpassing the expected +4.3% [1] - November personal spending increased by +0.5% month-over-month, while personal income grew by +0.3% month-over-month, below the expected +0.4% [1] - Initial jobless claims rose by +1,000 to 200,000, compared to the expected 209,000 [1] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's major indices ended positively, with Meta Platforms rising over +5% and Tesla gaining more than +4% [2] - ARM Holdings surged over +4%, and Advanced Micro Devices rose more than +1% [2] - Datadog jumped over +6% after an upgrade to Buy from Hold with a price target of $160 [2] - Abbott Laboratories slumped more than -10% after weaker-than-expected Q4 net sales [2] Company-Specific Developments - Intel sank more than -13% in pre-market trading due to disappointing Q1 guidance and ongoing manufacturing challenges [3][12] - Nvidia advanced more than +1% after reports that Chinese officials informed major tech firms they could prepare orders for its H200 AI chips [13] - Intuitive Surgical rose over +3% after posting better-than-expected Q4 results [13] - Applied Materials gained more than +1% following an upgrade to Buy from Hold with a price target of $390 [14] - Procter & Gamble rose over +1% after receiving upgrades from JPMorgan and DBS Bank [14] International Market Insights - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell -0.45% as travel and technology stocks declined, while telecom stocks, led by Ericsson, rose more than +8% after positive Q4 results [6] - Eurozone business activity grew at a slower-than-expected pace in January, with the Composite PMI at 51.5, below expectations [8][9] - U.K. December Retail Sales rose +0.4% month-over-month and +2.5% year-over-year, exceeding expectations [8] - Japan's Nikkei 225 closed higher after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate, with the core consumer inflation remaining above the 2% target [10][11]

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