Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for revenue growth and profitability improvements [2][7] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by its integration with Taotian, which is expected to enhance customer ARPU and attract new clients [2][5] - Cost reduction measures have significantly improved profitability, with adjusted net profit increasing by 205.1% YoY in 2024Q3 [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 180.3 billion, 196.0 billion, and 211.2 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.0%, 4.1%, and 4.2% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024Q3, the company's total revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB, a 6.6% YoY increase [5] - Integrated supply chain revenue was 20.7 billion RMB, with internal revenue from JD Group growing 8.1% YoY to 12.79 billion RMB, while external revenue was 7.87 billion RMB, with customer numbers up 9.4% but ARPU down 7.4% [5] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, supported by improved service capabilities and expanded air routes [5] Cost Efficiency - In 2024Q3, employee benefits, outsourcing costs, rental costs, depreciation, and other operating costs were 14.6 billion, 15.0 billion, 3.1 billion, 1.1 billion, and 5.4 billion RMB, respectively, with changes of +4.8%, +2.7%, 0.0%, +10.0%, and -5.3% YoY [6] - Gross margin improved to 11.7%, up 3.8 percentage points YoY, driven by automation, optimized vehicle scheduling, and network structure improvements [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance service quality by increasing transportation routes and frontline staff, while exploring opportunities in industrial belts [7] - Integration with Taotian is expected to provide a new revenue stream, contributing to future growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$20.67, representing a 39% upside from the current price of HK$14.88 [2][3] - The target price has been revised upward by 17% from the previous target of HK$17.68 [5] Core Views - JD Logistics demonstrated strong profitability in 3Q24, with non-IFRS net profit margin increasing to 5.2% from 1.3% in 3Q23, driven by efficiency improvements despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company's adjusted net profit surged 313% YoY in 3Q24, supported by robust margin expansion, particularly in gross margin [10] - Access to Tmall/Taobao merchants and overseas expansion are identified as two key long-term growth drivers [9][11] - JD Logistics plans to double its self-operated warehousing space for international business by 2025, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region [11] Financial Performance - Revenue grew 6.6% YoY in 3Q24, with revenue from JD Group and third-party channels increasing by 8.1% and 5.9% respectively [11] - Gross margin improved to 10.6% in 2024E, up from 7.6% in 2023A, reflecting the company's efficiency initiatives [13][20] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E has been revised upward by 36.2%/24.4%/20.4% to RMB 0.93/1.07/1.19 [5][20] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 3.3% in 2024E, up from 2.4% previously forecasted [20] Valuation - The target price of HK$20.67 is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [21][22] - JD Logistics is currently trading at a 28.0% discount to the revised target price, with a 2024E P/E of 14.6x and 2025E P/E of 12.6x [21] Industry Outlook - The logistics industry remains highly competitive, but JD Logistics is well-positioned to benefit from its access to Tmall/Taobao platforms, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [11] - The company's international business, though relatively small, is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth with manageable capital expenditure [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [3] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved record-high profitability in Q3 2024, driven by cost optimization and external order growth [3] - External orders remain the primary revenue source, accounting for 71.20% of total revenue [6] - The company's net profit surged 438.15% YoY to RMB 2.445 billion in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 44.396 billion, up 6.56% YoY [3] - Internal revenue from JD Group grew 8.13% YoY to RMB 12.788 billion, accounting for 28.80% of total revenue [6] - External revenue increased 5.94% YoY to RMB 31.608 billion [6] Profitability - Net profit attributable to shareholders skyrocketed 928.77% YoY to RMB 2.205 billion [3] - Non-IFRS profit rose 205.14% YoY to RMB 2.573 billion [3] - Gross profit margin improved by 3.79 percentage points to 11.71% [10] Cost Structure - Operating costs increased 2.18% YoY to RMB 39.198 billion, lower than revenue growth [11] - Outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.26 percentage points [11] Business Segments External Integrated Supply Chain - Revenue grew 1.23% YoY to RMB 7.875 billion, representing 17.74% of total revenue [6] - Customer base expanded 9.36% YoY to 59,300 [6] Pure Distribution Business - Revenue increased 7.60% YoY to RMB 23.733 billion, accounting for 53.46% of total revenue [6] - Deppon contributed RMB 9.850 billion, up 1.03% YoY [6] - Non-Deppon revenue grew 12.80% YoY to RMB 13.883 billion [6] Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow 9%, 8%, and 7% in 2024-2026, reaching RMB 182.424 billion, RMB 196.535 billion, and RMB 211.010 billion respectively [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase 1035%, 10%, and 10% in 2024-2026 [12] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted at 13.03x, 11.83x, and 10.80x for 2024-2026 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting expectations of significant growth in the next 6-12 months [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 130.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.5% YoY increase, with a net profit of RMB 4.47 billion, turning from a loss to a profit [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached RMB 44.4 billion, up 6.6% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 2.2 billion, a 929% YoY increase [2] - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts have significantly enhanced profitability, with Q3 gross margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points to 11.7% [2] - The company has expanded its overseas presence by opening new warehouses in Malaysia and the US, and has partnered with Taotian Group to integrate with the Taobao and Tmall platforms [2] Financial Performance - Revenue from JD Group grew by 8.1% in Q3 2024, higher than the overall growth rate, driven by growth in fast-moving consumer goods, 3C, and apparel sectors [2] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers reached RMB 20.7 billion in Q3 2024, with internal JD Group revenue growing 8.1% and external revenue growing 1.2% [2] - Other customer revenue increased by 7.6% to RMB 23.7 billion, mainly due to increased business volume in express and freight services [2] - Operating costs in Q3 2024 were RMB 39.2 billion, up only 2.2% YoY, reflecting improved operational efficiency and cost control [2] Future Projections - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 6.7 billion, RMB 7.7 billion, and RMB 8.8 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of RMB 4.6 billion, RMB 5.2 billion, and RMB 5.9 billion [2] - Revenue growth is expected to slow to 9.63% in 2024, 5.70% in 2025, and 5.89% in 2026, reflecting a maturing market [4] - Net profit growth is projected to be 984.16% in 2024, 15.13% in 2025, and 14.24% in 2026, indicating strong profitability improvements [4] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating costs in Q3 2024 were driven by a 4.8% increase in employee compensation, reflecting workforce expansion [2] - Gross profit in Q3 2024 was RMB 5.2 billion, up 57% YoY, with a net profit margin increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 5% [2] - The company's ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 12.17% in 2024, 12.29% in 2025, and 12.30% in 2026 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has integrated with Taobao and Tmall platforms, allowing consumers to track JD Logistics shipments within the Taobao and Tmall apps, which is expected to boost business volume [2] - Overseas expansion continues with new warehouses in Malaysia and the US, enhancing global logistics capabilities [2]

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Company**: JD Logistics Core Views and Arguments - **Revenue Growth**: JD Logistics achieved a total revenue of 44.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. External revenue accounted for 71.2% of the total, with adjusted net profit margin reaching 5.8%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. [2] - **Integrated Supply Chain**: Revenue from integrated supply chain business reached 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The number of external integrated supply chain customers reached 59,286, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. [4] - **Express and Express Delivery**: Revenue from express and express delivery business reached 23.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. [5] - **International Business**: JD Logistics actively expanded its international business, establishing an integrated global supply chain network with overseas warehouses as the core. [6] - **Technological Innovation**: JD Logistics continuously integrates advanced technologies and algorithms into daily operations, promoting changes in logistics network layout, site operation processes, automation applications, and transportation scheduling. [7] - **Cost Control**: JD Logistics achieved significant results in cost control, with efforts to further optimize operations and control costs in various areas. [10] Other Important Content - **Cost Control Efforts**: JD Logistics will continue to focus on cost control in areas such as employee costs, outsourcing costs, rental costs, other expenses, sales and marketing expenses, research and development expenses, and general and administrative expenses. [10] - **Impact of Policy Support**: The subsidy policy for home appliance replacement with old ones had a limited impact on JD Logistics' overall revenue structure. [12] - **Fourth Quarter Outlook**: The company expects the fourth quarter to be the best quarter of the year in terms of profit performance, with stable profit margins. [13] - **Future Investment Plans**: JD Logistics plans to continue exploring better business operation models and applying innovative technologies to seek higher resource efficiency. [16] - **Profitability Outlook**: JD Logistics has already exceeded the profitability target promised to shareholders at the time of listing and has reached a reasonable level in the industry. [17] - **Customer Growth**: JD Logistics expects customer numbers to continue to grow, with more customers choosing JD Logistics and JD Express. [18] - **Tmall Cooperation**: JD Logistics expects significant revenue growth from its cooperation with Tmall, with a rapid increase in market share. [19] - **Expansion of Business Opportunities**: JD Logistics plans to expand its business opportunities by combining its integrated supply chain capabilities with Tmall's platform. [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current closing price of HKD 14.92 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a strong performance in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with a projected net profit of over RMB 2 billion for Q4, corresponding to a profit margin of over 4% [1][2]. - The company is expected to enter a relatively stable profit margin phase in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 7.9 billion for 2024, reflecting a 30% increase from previous estimates [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's cost reduction strategies, including product upgrades, network optimization, and increased automation, which have significantly improved profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, JD Logistics achieved a revenue of RMB 44.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross profit margin improvement of nearly 4 percentage points to 12% [1][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was RMB 2.6 billion, approximately double the previous year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.8%, the highest quarterly level since the company went public [1][3]. - The report projects total revenue for 2024 to reach RMB 180.83 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4% [2][9]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been increased to RMB 7.9 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4%, and for 2025, the adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 7.9 billion [3][9]. - Revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with 2024 revenue expected at RMB 180.83 billion and 2025 at RMB 193.08 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 98.86 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 52.56% [4][5]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 6.80, indicating significant volatility and growth potential [4][5].

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, JD Logistics reported revenue of RMB 44,395,616 thousand, a 6.6% increase from RMB 41,662,646 thousand in the same period of 2023[2] - The non-IFRS net profit for the third quarter of 2024 reached RMB 2,572,583 thousand, reflecting a significant increase of 205.1% compared to RMB 843,078 thousand in the same quarter of 2023[2] - The gross profit for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 5,197,449 thousand, up 57.5% from RMB 3,300,429 thousand year-over-year[2] - The company achieved a non-IFRS EBITDA of RMB 5,726,417 thousand for the third quarter of 2024, compared to RMB 3,834,399 thousand in the same period of 2023, marking a 49.3% increase[2] - Revenue from JD Group reached RMB 12.79 billion, accounting for 28.8% of total revenue, while revenue from others was RMB 31.61 billion, making up 71.2%[10] - Operating costs increased by 2.2% to RMB 39.2 billion, with the percentage of operating costs to revenue decreasing by 3.8 percentage points to 88.3%[11] - Gross profit rose from RMB 3.3 billion to RMB 5.2 billion, with gross margin increasing from 7.9% to 11.7%[13] - Net profit increased significantly from RMB 500 million to RMB 2.4 billion, primarily due to the increase in gross profit[17] - Free cash flow for the period was RMB 2.7 billion, up from RMB 2.1 billion in the same period last year[22] - Total cash resources amounted to RMB 47.1 billion as of September 30, 2024[21] Customer and Market Growth - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased from 54,212 to 59,286, contributing to a 5.4% rise in revenue from integrated supply chain customers to RMB 20,662,768 thousand[8] - Revenue from other customers increased by 7.6% to RMB 23,732,848 thousand, driven primarily by growth in express delivery services[8] Operational Developments - JD Logistics opened new warehouses in Malaysia and the United States in Q3 2024, enhancing its global logistics network and service capabilities[3] - The company’s warehousing network now includes over 1,600 self-operated warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party operated cloud warehouses, covering nearly all counties in China[4] Expenditures and Investments - The company’s total human resources expenditure reached RMB 87 billion for the twelve months ending September 30, 2024, reflecting its commitment to job creation and social contribution[4] - Research and development expenses remained stable at RMB 912.7 million compared to RMB 866.5 million in the previous year[15] - Sales and marketing expenses were stable at RMB 1.4 billion for both periods[14] - The company maintained stable rental costs at RMB 3.1 billion for both periods[11] Sustainability and Recognition - JD Logistics was recognized in the S&P Global 2024 Sustainability Yearbook as an industry best performer in corporate sustainability assessment[4] Corporate Governance - The board expresses gratitude to all employees, customers, and business partners for their continued support and trust[23] - The board includes executive director Hu Wei, non-executive director Liu Qiangdong, and independent non-executive directors Gu Yi, Zhao Xiande, Zhang Yang, and Ye Lin[24]

Investment Rating - JD Logistics (JDL) is rated **Overweight (OW)** with a price target of HK$20 for December 2025 [1][4][9] Core Investment Thesis - JDL has shown **fundamental improvements** and **margin expansion** since its IPO in May 2021, driven by business model recalibration and operating leverage gains [1][9] - Despite fierce competition in e-commerce and express parcel delivery, JDL has achieved **breakeven in 2Q23** and rapidly improved profitability in subsequent quarters [1][12] - JDL is expected to benefit from China's **trade-in policy**, which boosts home appliance sales, and its integration with Taobao/Tmall for logistics services [1][12][16] - The company is **undervalued**, trading at 3.9x FY25E EV/EBITDA, compared to the industry average of 5.5x [1][23] Financial Performance and Forecasts - JDL's revenue is expected to grow **6% YoY** in 3Q24, reaching Rmb44B, with net profit of Rmb1.1B and a net profit margin (NPM) of 2.5% [2][12] - Revenue from external customers is growing faster than from JD, with JD's contribution declining to around **30%** of total revenue [2][12][14] - JDL's **EBITDA margin** is forecasted to improve from 8.8% in FY23 to 11.5% in FY25, driven by cost optimization and scale leverage [8][12] Growth Drivers - JDL is poised to benefit from **Double 11** sales events, with Taobao/Tmall's integration expected to unlock growth in express parcel business [16][17] - The company plans to expand its **overseas warehousing** capabilities, doubling the gross floor area (GFA) by the end of 2025, focusing on regions like the Americas, Europe, and Southeast Asia [20] - JDL's partnership with JD is expected to drive **mutual growth**, particularly in home appliance sales, which surged 67% YoY during the October National Days Holiday [12][16] Valuation and Market Performance - JDL's share price has surged **52% YTD**, outperforming the HSCI index (+18%) and other Chinese logistics companies [1][21] - The stock is trading at **12.2x FY25E P/E**, with a forecasted EPS CAGR of 20% during FY24-26E [1][23] - JDL's valuation discount to Alibaba/PDD is aligned with its target EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.0x, which is below the industry average of 5.5x [1][9][23] Industry Comparison - JDL's **EV/EBITDA multiple** of 3.9x for FY25E is lower than peers like ZTO Express (8.0x) and Yunda Holding (4.4x) [26] - The company's **ROE** is expected to improve from 4.7% in FY23 to 12.4% in FY25, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [8][26]

研究报告 Research Report [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$14.86 目标价 HK$19.91 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$98.46bn / US$12.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$20.91mn 发行股票数目 6,626mn 自由流通股 (%) 36% 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 45.1% 78.6% 56.4% 绝对值（美元） 45.5% 79.4% 57.4% 相对 MSCI China 28.0% 65.0% 41.6% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 166,625 176,002 194,821 215,303 Revenue (+/-) 21% 6% 11% 11% Net profit 2,761 6,788 11,5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].