[Table_StockNameRptType] 快手-W（01024） 港股公司点评 可灵商业化持续推进，首次宣派特别股息 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-08-28 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | 76.00 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）81.65/37.75 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 4,316 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,588 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 3,280 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 2,727 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] -16% 15% 46% 77% 108% 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 快手-W 恒生指数 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.快手 25Q1 业绩点评：可灵商业化进 程加速，业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that game companies are actively addressing player concerns and optimizing their game mechanics to enhance user engagement and trust [1][2][3] Group 2 - "Honor of Kings" has clarified its matchmaking mechanism, stating that historical win-loss distribution and other external honors are not considered in matchmaking, which may help improve player trust and community activity [1] - Kuaishou's game "Three Kingdoms: Looking at the World" is set to begin a new round of testing on September 4, indicating ongoing optimization in strategy and commercialization, potentially enhancing user engagement and market competitiveness [2] - Hero Game's RPG "Double Helix" has opened pre-orders on the App Store and will launch on October 28, featuring a no-gacha system and no stamina limits, which may attract player interest and strengthen the company's competitive edge [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and growth potential. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 35.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 5.618 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year. The gross margin reached 55.7%, marking a historical peak [1][3]. - The commercialization of Kuaishou's AI product, Keling, is accelerating, with Q2 revenue of 250 million yuan, a 66.7% increase from Q1. Keling has generated over 200 million videos and 400 million images since its launch [3][6]. - The company's online marketing services revenue reached 19.765 billion yuan in Q2, a 12.8% year-on-year increase, contributing to a higher average revenue per daily active user [3][6]. - E-commerce and live streaming businesses are steadily growing, with live streaming revenue of 10.044 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year, and e-commerce GMV reaching 358.879 billion yuan, a 17.6% increase [3][6]. - Daily active users (DAU) reached a record high of 409 million, with an average usage time of 126.8 minutes per day, reflecting a 7.5% year-on-year increase in total usage time [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, Kuaishou is projected to achieve total revenue of 113.525 billion yuan in 2023, growing to 172.537 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.5% [5][6]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 6.396 billion yuan in 2023 to 26.536 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [5][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 50.58% in 2023 to 57.4% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiency [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.98 in 2023 to 12.81 in 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5][6].

Group 1 - A former executive of Kuaishou, Feng Dian, was involved in the embezzlement of 140 million yuan intended for service providers and operators, which he allegedly laundered through Bitcoin [1][2] - Feng Dian was responsible for the approval of service providers and the execution of subsidy policies during his tenure at Kuaishou, which facilitated the opportunity for the crime [2] - Seven individuals, including Feng Dian, received prison sentences ranging from three to fourteen and a half years, along with fines, and over 90 Bitcoins were recovered [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Kuaishou's revenue for the second quarter increased by 13% year-on-year to 35 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit rose by 20% year-on-year to 5.6 billion yuan, both exceeding market expectations [1] - The growth is primarily attributed to robust e-commerce operations and better-than-expected performance in AI commercialization [1] - For the third quarter, the firm anticipates total revenue to grow by 13% year-on-year, driven by strong momentum in e-commerce and resilient growth in online marketing [1] Group 2 - The firm has slightly raised Kuaishou's earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 0% to 1% to reflect positive developments in the AI sector [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 80 HKD to 84 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating, with an optimistic outlook on Kuaishou's AI development and commercialization prospects [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the internet sector, is experiencing a rebound, with significant gains in major tech stocks and ETFs [1][2][4] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has seen a strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of over 35% as of the end of July, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index [4][5] - Recent data shows that the Hong Kong Internet ETF has attracted substantial capital inflow, totaling 773 million yuan over ten consecutive days, reaching a record high fund size of nearly 8.7 billion yuan [2][4] Group 2 - The liquidity situation in the Hong Kong market has improved, with the interbank lending rates stabilizing and external liquidity conditions becoming more favorable, supporting a potential phase of price recovery [2] - Major holdings in the Hong Kong Internet ETF include Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, which collectively account for over 54% of the fund's total weight [5][6] - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Internet ETF has been 593 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity and the ability to support intraday trading without restrictions [7]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou is facing significant legal and operational challenges, including a substantial copyright infringement ruling and internal corruption issues, which may impact its reputation and business operations [2][8]. Group 1: Legal Issues - Kuaishou has been ordered by two courts to pay a total of 89.1 million yuan for copyright infringement related to the unauthorized distribution of content from "De Yun Dou Xiao She" and "Chang Xiang Si" [2]. - The Guangdong and Chongqing High People's Courts found that Kuaishou had engaged in numerous infringement activities and mandated the platform to implement effective measures to prevent the spread of infringing videos [2][3]. - Despite receiving 2,179 "take-down notices" over three years, Kuaishou has failed to adequately address the issue, with over 2,000 infringing videos remaining on the platform [3]. Group 2: Corruption Scandal - A corruption case involving Kuaishou's former e-commerce service manager has emerged, with allegations of embezzling over 140 million yuan in subsidies and laundering the money through virtual currency platforms [8]. - The case has led to the conviction of seven individuals, including the former manager, who received prison sentences ranging from three to fourteen and a half years [8]. Group 3: Business Performance - Kuaishou reported a 17.6% year-on-year increase in e-commerce GMV, reaching 358.9 billion yuan in the second quarter, with an average of 134 million monthly buyers [9]. - The platform's "pan-shelf" e-commerce GMV accounted for over 32% of total e-commerce GMV, with significant growth during the 618 shopping festival [9]. - Despite strong performance, the platform faces challenges with high-profile influencers like Xin Yuzhi (Xin Ba), who has announced multiple withdrawals from the live-streaming industry, raising concerns about the platform's credibility [9][10][12].

Key Points Summary of Kuaishou's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou - **Industry**: AI Video Generation and E-commerce Core Insights and Arguments - Kuaishou's AI video generation model "Keling" is leading in domestic performance and ranks second internationally, with advantages in data accumulation, algorithm development, and organizational structure [2][4][5] - The commercialization of Keling has progressed rapidly, with monthly active users increasing significantly and partnerships established with thousands of enterprise clients. Professional creators are the main paying group, with applications in gaming and film production [2][7] - Kuaishou's e-commerce business is experiencing steady growth, with a GMV increase of approximately 18% in Q2, indicating a shift towards high-quality growth [2][20] - Advertising revenue benefited from AI optimization, with a year-on-year increase of about 13% in Q2, driven by improvements in ad load rates and CPM [2][21] Financial Performance - Keling's annualized revenue surpassed $100 million in March, with Q2 revenue exceeding 250 million RMB, showing significant growth from 150 million RMB in Q1 [2][7] - The company expects adjusted net profit for the year to reach around 20 billion RMB, despite increased capital expenditure on AI [4][24] - Kuaishou's stock performance has been positively influenced by its AI business developments, particularly the Keling model [3] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Keling's performance metrics, such as net income per daily active user, outperform competitors like ByteDance's "Dream," indicating a strong competitive edge [6] - The domestic video production market was valued at approximately $20 billion in 2024, with global market size reaching hundreds of billions, highlighting the potential for AI video products [11][12] Future Growth Potential - Kuaishou anticipates further revenue growth driven by technological advancements and product iterations, with significant customer development potential in gaming and film industries [9] - The company plans to enhance product interaction experiences and attract professional creators through innovative features and industry solutions [10] Advertising and E-commerce Insights - The advertising sector is expected to continue growing, with local life services and short dramas contributing to revenue increases [21] - Kuaishou's e-commerce strategy focuses on deepening engagement with small merchants and creators, leading to sustainable GMV growth [20] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - Kuaishou's capital expenditure for the year is projected between 11-12 billion RMB, with a focus on AI investments, while maintaining shareholder returns through share buybacks and special dividends [23][24] Conclusion - Kuaishou's strategic focus on AI technology and its application in video generation and e-commerce positions it well for future growth, with a strong outlook for revenue and profitability [25]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou faces significant legal and operational challenges, including a court ruling for copyright infringement and a corruption scandal involving substantial financial misconduct [2][8][9]. Group 1: Legal Issues - Kuaishou has been ordered by two high courts to pay a total of 89.1 million yuan for copyright infringement related to the unauthorized distribution of content from "De Yun Dou Xiao She" and "Chang Xiang Si" [2]. - The Guangdong and Chongqing high courts found Kuaishou guilty of numerous infringement acts, mandating the platform to implement effective measures to prevent the spread of infringing videos [2][3]. - Despite receiving 2,179 takedown notices over three years, Kuaishou has failed to adequately address the ongoing infringement issues, with over 2,000 infringing videos still available on the platform [3]. Group 2: Corruption Scandal - A corruption case involving Kuaishou's former e-commerce service manager has emerged, with allegations of embezzling over 140 million yuan in subsidy funds through a network of shell companies and laundering the money via foreign cryptocurrency exchanges [8][9]. - The main figure in the scandal, Feng Dian, along with six others, has been sentenced to prison terms ranging from three to fourteen and a half years for their roles in the embezzlement [9]. Group 3: Business Performance - Kuaishou's e-commerce business has shown robust growth, with a reported GMV of 358.9 billion yuan in Q2, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [9]. - The platform's monthly active buyers reached 134 million, and the general merchandise e-commerce segment accounted for over 32% of total GMV, with significant growth during the 618 shopping festival [9]. Group 4: Influencer Challenges - Influencer Xin Youzhi, known as Xin Ba, announced his fifth exit from the live-streaming industry, raising concerns about the impact of his repeated withdrawals on Kuaishou's credibility [10][12]. - Xin Ba's recent controversies, including safety issues with his product line, have further affected the platform's reputation, despite his significant sales contributions during major shopping events [10][12].

Kuaishou Technology Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology - **Industry**: Internet Services, specifically focusing on short-video platforms and e-commerce Key Financial Highlights - **Q2 2025 Performance**: - Revenue: Rmb 35,046 million, a 1.5% increase from UBS estimates - Net Income: Rmb 5,618 million, reflecting a 10.5% YoY growth - E-commerce GMV: Rmb 358,879 million, with a 3.1% increase QoQ - Kling AI revenue: Rmb 250 million, up 67% QoQ, exceeding expectations by 30% [2][3][10] Core Insights 1. **AI Growth**: - Kling's revenue growth is expected to be driven by new version launches and increased user engagement, with a projected revenue of Rmb 1 billion (approximately US$140 million) for 2025 [3][4] - Management is confident in maintaining global leadership in video generation AI, with significant growth potential in a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately 200 million users [3] 2. **E-commerce Performance**: - E-commerce GMV growth accelerated to 18% YoY, with expectations of 13% growth in H2 2025 [3] - The shift towards pan-shelf e-commerce is seen as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with live streaming e-commerce [3] 3. **Advertising Outlook**: - Domestic advertising growth is projected to accelerate to 15% YoY in Q3 and Q4, despite a temporary setback due to a one-off incident affecting Brazilian ad spending [3][4] - Overall ad growth is modeled at 12.6% and 13% for Q3 and Q4, respectively [3] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb 142,294 million - 2026E Revenue: Rmb 155,974 million - 2027E Revenue: Rmb 168,404 million [5] - **Profitability Metrics**: - EBIT margin expected to improve from 15.1% in 2025 to 22.5% by 2029 [5] - Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb 4.82, with a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2026 [4][7] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Price Target**: - Maintained at HK$ 95.37, implying a 14.4x PE for 2025E excluding Kling [9] - **Investment Rating**: - Current rating is "Buy" with a favorable outlook based on reasonable valuation and growth potential in e-commerce and AI [4][6] Risks and Considerations - **Competitive Landscape**: - Risks include intensifying competition, regulatory challenges, and potential slowdowns in user growth and monetization [18] - **Market Conditions**: - The slowing Chinese economy may impact online advertising revenue growth [18] Additional Insights - **Investor Positioning**: - Relatively low investor positioning suggests potential for upward movement in stock price [12] - **Market Cap**: - Approximately HK$ 308 billion (US$ 39.4 billion) with a free float of 81% [6] This summary encapsulates the key points from Kuaishou Technology's earnings call, highlighting financial performance, growth strategies, and market outlook.