消息面上，可灵年底"连环升级" ，统一多模态O1+2.6音画同出+数字人2.0。华福证券发布研报称，可灵 AI功能迭代带来商业化空间进一步提升。以可灵2.6模型为例，同样生成5秒的视频，快手1.6模型"标准 模式"收费20个灵感值，高品质模式收费35个灵感值；而可灵2.6模型，仅支持高品质模型，收费50个灵 感值。价格提升，进一步打开商业化空间。 国联民生证券则表示，快手主业稳健增长符合预期，可灵发布新版本Q4流水环比有望提升，短期黑天 鹅事件或有波动，当前位置估值性价比高，建议关注黑天鹅事件落地后的投资机会。 智通财经APP获悉，快手-W(01024)早盘涨超12%，截至发稿，涨10.19%，报73港元，成交额30.3亿港 元。 ...

消息面上，可灵年底"连环升级"，统一多模态O1+2.6音画同出+数字人2.0。华福证券发布研报称，可灵 AI功能迭代带来商业化空间进一步提升。以可灵2.6模型为例，同样生成5秒的视频，快手1.6模型"标准 模式"收费20个灵感值，高品质模式收费35个灵感值；而可灵2.6模型，仅支持高品质模型，收费50个灵 感值。价格提升，进一步打开商业化空间。 快手-W(01024)早盘涨超12%，截至发稿，涨10.19%，报73港元，成交额30.3亿港元。 国联民生（601456）证券则表示，快手主业稳健增长符合预期，可灵发布新版本Q4流水环比有望提 升，短期黑天鹅事件或有波动，当前位置估值性价比高，建议关注黑天鹅事件落地后的投资机会。 ...

联想、哔哩哔哩涨超3%，中芯国际涨超2%，阿里巴巴涨1.9%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound, with a shift from traditional economic cycles to sectors like AI applications and new energy, indicating a significant change in market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened higher, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.33% and the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index increasing by 0.36% [1] - Notable stock performances include Kuaishou-W rising nearly 6%, and Alibaba, SMIC, Bilibili-W, Baidu Group-SW, and Xiaomi Group-W showing significant gains [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - The Guangfa Securities team, led by Liu Chenming, is optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market's potential for a rebound, noting that the weight of new economy sectors in the Hang Seng Index has increased from 17% to nearly 50% [1] - Liu's team attributes previous market suppression to liquidity and sentiment factors, suggesting that market sentiment may have adjusted sufficiently for a potential rebound in the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The Guangfa Securities team anticipates a dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies in most countries by 2026, which could lead to a reversal in liquidity [1] - A potential liquidity reversal, combined with seasonal market movements, could create upward momentum for the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Huaxia Fund recommends focusing on the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index, which offers liquidity advantages and a balanced distribution across high-end manufacturing, biotechnology, and internet sectors [1] - The current PE valuation of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index is 26.45 times, which is around the 41st percentile of its historical range over the past decade, significantly lower than valuations of A-share ChiNext, STAR Market, and the Nasdaq 100 [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.33%, with notable activity in tech stocks such as Kuaishou increasing over 5% and Alibaba rising over 1% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strength, with China Aluminum rising over 1%, and Baidu Group increasing nearly 1% as the company plans to spin off its Kunlun Chip business for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities believes that the overall profitability of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively strong, with scarce assets in internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Despite several months of continuous increases, the overall valuation remains low, indicating high long-term cost-effectiveness for allocation [1] - CITIC Securities projects that by 2026, the Hong Kong stock market may experience a second round of valuation recovery and further performance revival, benefiting from internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external fiscal and monetary easing from major economies [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities anticipates that the first half of 2026 will be favorable for the Hong Kong stock market due to a weak domestic economic recovery, ongoing Federal Reserve easing, and continued industrial catalysts. There is a projected incremental space of HKD 630 billion to HKD 1,050 billion for southbound funds, with passive index funds and insurance capital having relatively larger space [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.09% at 26,361.44 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.33% to 5,755.28 points. The National Enterprises Index fell 0.03% to 9,166.25 points, and the Red Chip Index decreased by 0.22% to 4,074.78 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance: Alibaba-W increased by 1.41%, Tencent Holdings rose by 0.16%, JD.com-SW fell by 0.26%, Xiaomi Group-W gained 0.79%, NetEase-S dropped 0.26%, Meituan-W decreased by 0.38%, Kuaishou-W surged by 5.89%, and Bilibili-W rose by 0.85% [1] - The three major indices in Hong Kong experienced a "New Year rally" on the last trading day, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.76% to 26,338.47 points, the Tech Index up 4% to 5,736.44 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 2.86% to 9,168.99 points [1] Investment Insights - CICC analyzed that the recent surge is likely not due to significant capital inflow or major policy changes, but rather driven by industry factors such as the listing of semiconductor leaders and the end of overseas holidays prompting investors to reposition for 2026 [2] - Huatai Securities recommends continuing to allocate to tech chains with performance expectations, while also considering a balanced allocation to cash flow assets due to changing driving factors and funding attributes [2] - Key sectors to watch in Q1 include strong cyclical industries with external demand catalysts, such as copper, aluminum, chemicals, and engineering machinery, alongside technology as a main focus [2] Company News - BYD is projected to achieve total sales of 4.602 million new energy vehicles in 2025, with pure electric vehicle sales expected to reach approximately 2.257 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.86% [6] - Semiconductor industry developments are highlighted by the increase in the shareholding of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund in SMIC from 4.79% to 9.25% [10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations to lower public fund sales costs, which is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, reducing the comprehensive fee rate by about 20% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The departure of Kuaishou's Vice President Zhou Guorui highlights a trend of ongoing executive turnover within the company, raising concerns about its AI strategy and organizational stability [1][9][10]. Group 1: Executive Departures - Zhou Guorui, Vice President and head of foundational models and recommendation models, is reportedly leaving Kuaishou, with internal systems indicating he is on leave [1]. - His departure is part of a broader trend, with over ten executives at the vice president level leaving since October 2023, including key figures in various technical roles [5][9]. - The exodus includes notable departures such as Yuan Shuai, Vice President of Magnetic Engine, and Zhang Di, who left after the revenue of the self-developed model "Keling" surpassed 100 million yuan [5][9]. Group 2: Impact on AI Strategy - Zhou Guorui's exit is significant as he was a key player in Kuaishou's AI strategy, having led the development of OneRec and other foundational models [5][10]. - The ongoing turnover raises concerns about the continuity of Kuaishou's AI strategy, especially as competition in the short video industry intensifies with rivals like Douyin and WeChat Video increasing their AI investments [10][12]. - The company is experiencing a shift in focus from long-term technological investment to immediate commercial efficiency, as evidenced by a decline in R&D spending from 18.4% of revenue in 2021 to an expected 9.6% in 2024 [9][12]. Group 3: Organizational Challenges - Kuaishou is undergoing significant organizational changes, including a major restructuring that affects 15 business lines and 25 mid-level managers, leading to increased instability and executive turnover [9][12]. - The company faces multiple business challenges, including underperformance in its AI business, with the revenue from "Keling" only reaching 250 million yuan in Q2 2025, accounting for just 4.8% of total revenue [12]. - The loss of key talent poses a risk to Kuaishou's technological advancement and could disrupt the internal team dynamics, further complicating its strategic transition [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou's recent operational challenges, particularly in its gaming segment, highlight systemic weaknesses in its risk control mechanisms, leading to significant market repercussions and a decline in user confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Kuaishou's user base has grown significantly, reaching an average daily active user count of 416 million by Q3 2025, showcasing its strong market presence [4]. - The company initially entered the gaming sector in 2017 with the launch of "Kuaishou Electric Ball," which struggled to gain traction and was eventually shut down in 2022 [5][7]. - Kuaishou's gaming strategy has evolved, with the establishment of a dedicated gaming division in 2021, aiming to consolidate its gaming operations under a more professional governance structure [8]. Group 2: Gaming Business Challenges - The launch of "Danzhi Universe" aimed to streamline Kuaishou's gaming efforts, but it has faced significant challenges, including project cancellations and layoffs, particularly after the underperformance of key titles [9][10]. - Kuaishou's gaming products, such as "Endless Dream Return" and "Super Time Run," have not met market expectations, with both titles failing to achieve sustainable long-term success [12][13]. - The company's approach to gaming has been characterized by a focus on smaller, less risky projects, but this strategy has not translated into substantial revenue growth [10][12]. Group 3: Industry Context - The gaming industry presents unique challenges for platforms like Kuaishou, which traditionally focus on short video content, as the operational and organizational demands differ significantly [20]. - Comparatively, Tencent's gaming success is attributed to its integrated platform evolution, which contrasts with Kuaishou's fragmented approach, leading to governance and operational difficulties [20]. - The recent "black and gray industry" incident underscores the vulnerabilities within Kuaishou's operational framework, revealing the potential for systemic issues to impact overall business performance [1][20].

Group 1 - Kuaishou concept stocks rose by 2.49%, ranking second in the concept sector, with 37 stocks increasing in value [1][2] - Notable gainers include BlueFocus, which hit a 20% limit up, and Liou Co., which also reached the limit up, while Yidian Tianxia, Xuan Ya International, and Zhi De Mai saw increases of 10.23%, 8.20%, and 6.98% respectively [1][2] - The stocks with the largest declines included Online Offline, Qingniao Fire Protection, and Bainacheng, which fell by 5.73%, 4.28%, and 3.48% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The Kuaishou concept sector attracted a net inflow of 6.336 billion yuan, with 30 stocks receiving net inflows, and 9 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows [2][3] - BlueFocus led the net inflow with 2.762 billion yuan, followed by Liou Co. with 2.599 billion yuan, and Yidian Tianxia with 204 million yuan [2][3] Group 3 - In terms of net inflow ratios, Liou Co., BlueFocus, and Capital Online had the highest ratios at 47.49%, 24.74%, and 11.22% respectively [3] - The Kuaishou concept stocks with significant net inflows include BlueFocus, which rose by 20.00% with a turnover rate of 29.54%, and Liou Co., which increased by 9.94% with a turnover rate of 17.00% [3][4]

Core Insights - The upcoming Lunar New Year presents a significant opportunity for brands to capture consumer attention and build long-term assets, with Kuaishou emerging as a key platform for marketing during this period [1][3] - Kuaishou's user engagement is expected to increase by 14% during the 2025 Spring Festival, with a 26% faster conversion cycle for the R3 demographic and a 101% higher new customer ARPU compared to regular periods, creating fertile ground for business growth [1] Group 1: Marketing Strategies - Kuaishou's "Magnetic Engine" has launched a comprehensive marketing campaign for the 2026 New Year goods festival, providing a full-spectrum operational guide to assist merchants in maximizing their sales [3][4] - The marketing strategy is built on three pillars: "Golden Bull Strategy," "Product Aggregation Strategy," and "Data Management," supported by substantial incentive policies and innovative approaches [4][12] Group 2: Consumer Trends - During the 2025 New Year festival, search volumes for keywords like "New Year snacks," "New Year's Eve dishes," and "food live streaming" surged, with significant GMV growth in categories such as snacks, fresh produce, and gift boxes [4] - The primary consumer demographic consists of families aged 31-40 and 50+, presenting clear growth opportunities for brands [4] Group 3: Implementation Tactics - The "Golden Bull Strategy" focuses on a step-by-step approach to help merchants accurately gauge growth rhythms, utilizing data-driven insights to identify potential bestsellers ahead of the festival [8] - The "Product Aggregation Strategy" integrates various marketing resources, including celebrities and influencers, to create diverse promotional scenarios that enhance brand exposure and consumer engagement [8][11] Group 4: Incentives and Support - Kuaishou's marketing campaign includes attractive policies such as cash subsidies and diverse incentive mechanisms to support merchants of all sizes, aiming to lower operational costs and maximize marketing potential [12][14] - Specific activities like the "Million Points Battle" and "Dividing the Million Prize Pool" are designed to engage active merchants and provide substantial rewards based on their performance during the festival [12][14] Group 5: Overall Impact - Kuaishou's integrated approach combines content-driven marketing, extensive resource exposure, and intelligent tools to facilitate a dual benefit of brand awareness and sales performance during the New Year festival [16]