风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 超级泥头车 来源：雪球 创新药行业的投资本质是 " 高风险 、 高回报 " 的科技博弈 ， 其价值实现高度集中于 " 潜在重 磅药物出现→专利期内商业化成功 " 这一窗口期 。 这一特性使其与传统的 " 买入并长期持有 " 价值投资模式存在差异 ， 但通过精准把握投资节点 、 管理风险 ， 仍可构建符合价值投资框架 的策略 。 一 、 创新药投资是 " 阶段性价值投资 " 与 " 概率游戏 " 的结合 行业特殊性导致的估值悖论 高研发风险与零和博弈 ： 礼来CEO指出行业整体研发回报率接近零 （ 剔除GLP-1药物后PE仅 12倍 ） ， 源于90%临床阶段药物失败率 。 企业价值高度依赖单款重磅药物 （ 如修美乐曾占 艾伯维收入的60% ） ， 但专利悬崖后若无接替产品 ， 估值将崩塌 （ 如辉瑞立普妥专利到期 后市值腰斩 ） 。 平台型公司的 " 伪护城河 " ： 即使强如恒瑞医药 ， 其管线成功率也受临床转化效率制约 。 2022-2024年ADC/双抗交易爆发 （ 占中国License-out交易的50%以上 ...

Core Insights - AnaptysBio, Inc. has released updated data from the Phase 2b trial of rosnilimab, demonstrating significant efficacy in treating rheumatoid arthritis [1][2] - The drug showed durable responses and was well tolerated compared to standard biologics and JAK inhibitors [2][4] - Analyst Emily Bodnar upgraded AnaptysBio's rating from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target from $22 to $38 based on positive trial data [4] Efficacy and Safety - In a 424-patient trial, rosnilimab achieved JAK-like efficacy on multiple measures, including low disease activity (LDA) and remission on the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) [1] - At Week 12, all three doses of rosnilimab (100mg Q4W, 400mg Q4W, 600mg Q2W) showed statistically significant reductions in DAS-28 CRP and ACR20 compared to placebo [2] - By Week 12, 45% of patients achieved CDAI LDA, increasing to 69% by Week 14 across all doses [2] Patient Outcomes - Rosnilimab demonstrated clinically meaningful improvements in patient-reported outcomes, including pain visual analog scale (VAS) and HAQ-Disability Index [4] - As of the March 11, 2025 data cutoff, 83% of patients remained in LDA at Week 34, with a median CDAI of 13 for those not sustaining LDA [3] Competitive Landscape - Data from the SELECT-CHOICE trial indicated similar efficacy results for AbbVie’s Rinvoq and Bristol Myers Squibb’s Orencia, aligning with rosnilimab's outcomes [5] - In contrast, Eli Lilly's discontinued PD-1 agonist peresolimab showed a decline in CDAI LDA rates, highlighting rosnilimab's stronger performance [6] - Johnson & Johnson is expected to present early data for its PD-1 agonist at the upcoming EULAR conference, although its study is smaller than AnaptysBio's [6]

个股新闻 1. 美联储解除富国银行(WFC.US)资产增长限制。 2. 阿斯利康(AZN.O)宣布英飞凡已获中国国家药品监督管理局批准。 金十数据整理：每日美股市场要闻速递（6月4日 周三） 重要新闻 1. 特朗普："太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。 2. 美国5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人，预期11万人，前值6.2万人。 6. 美元树(DLTR.US)向投资者发出预警，受关税成本上升及消费者支出疲软影响，其第二季度利润同比 跌幅或高达50%。 7. CVS Health(CVS.US)宣布，计划在未来10年投入200亿美元，通过科技驱动的消费者健康体验实现医 疗行业的互操作性。 8. 中国乘联分会数据显示，预估5月特斯拉(TSLA.O)中国销辆达61662辆；同时，特斯拉(TSLA.O)在英 国的新车销售在五月份同比下降45.8%，至1758辆。 9. CrowdStrike(CRWD.O)盘前下跌，公司第二季度收入预测低于市场预期。 10. 意大利和法国考虑拆分意法半导体(STM.N)联合管理权，目前还只是初步和试探性的想法。 11. 特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT.O)计划推出与比特币挂钩的ETF ...

Eli Lilly (LLY 0.47%) has been one of the top-performing healthcare megacap stocks of the past decade. And in more recent years, particularly over the past five, it's easy to point to the biggest factor driving Eli Lilly's run: The company's work in diabetes and, especially, the weight loss market. Eli Lilly is unquestionably one of the two leaders in this fast-growing field, and it appears to be gaining ground on its biggest competitor, Novo Nordisk. In January, Vertex Pharmaceuticals earned approval from ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly (LLY) is positioned as a strong long-term investment opportunity in the obesity treatment market, particularly with its GLP-1 drugs, despite potential competition and earnings growth slowdown risks. Group 1: Market Performance and Resilience - Eli Lilly's stock has shown relative resilience compared to the broader market, with a 19% decline during the 2022 inflation shock and a 23% decline during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, while the S&P 500 experienced declines of 25% and 34% respectively [2] - LLY stock has already absorbed significant impacts, falling over 20% from its 52-week high of over $970 to below $750 [3] Group 2: Market Potential and Competitive Position - The market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to grow to $150 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk currently dominating, having generated over $40 billion in sales last year [3] - Eli Lilly is a leader in the obesity treatment race, with superior efficacy and multiple product offerings, including injectable Zepbound and promising oral GLP-1 formulations showing nearly 8% weight loss in trials [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Stability - Eli Lilly's growth rate is accelerating at over 30%, significantly higher than AbbVie's under 5%, with a three-year average growth rate of 17% compared to AbbVie's less than 1% [6] - Eli Lilly's three-year average margins stand at 34%, superior to AbbVie's 26%, indicating better profitability [6] - Eli Lilly's balance sheet is stronger, with debt making up only 4% of equity compared to AbbVie's 20%, signaling a healthier financial standing [6]

At ELAM1, we empower financial professionals and investors with the scientific and clinical expertise required to navigate the complexities of the healthcare sector. By bridging the gap between cutting-edge science and financial strategy, we help our clients uncover hidden value, assess risks with greater accuracy, and make more informed investment decisions in life sciences. Feel free to reach us or to visit our website for more informations about us and our services.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stoc ...

2025年新一线城市名单发布 5月28日，新一线城市研究所发布《2025新一线城市魅力排行榜》，15个新一线城市名单揭晓，成都连续11 年蝉联榜首，在五大维度中，成都在4个维度获100分。 首个新域新质创新赛事落地，面向16.9万家专精特新企业 2025新域新质创新大赛今日召开新闻通气会。会议信息显示，这是全国范围内首个开展新域新质创新探索的 专业赛事，设定了"高校师生组"和"创新企业组"两个竞赛组别。其中后者面向全国16.9万家专精特新企业， 预选阶段将在全国挖掘500个新域新质优秀成果，参赛项目可在大赛官网报名通道提交参赛信息和项目资 料。 荣耀确认进军机器人业务 5月28日，荣耀CEO李健在荣耀400系列发布会上展示了其员工与机器人研发的故事，意外官宣了荣耀已经进 军机器人的消息。据了解，李健在发布会上展示的这款机器人，跑步速度已经达到4m/s，打破了之前的机器 人行业记录。 上海市新增2款已完成登记的生成式人工智能服务 据网信上海消息，截至5月28日，上海市新增2款已完成登记的生成式人工智能服务，累计已完成87款生成式 人工智能服务登记。 宁德时代：公司在全固态电池上持续投入，2027年有望实现小批量 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Eli Lilly has transformed into a standout growth story in the pharmaceutical sector, driven by blockbuster drugs and a robust pipeline of treatments [1][8] - The company reported total sales of $12.73 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 45% year-over-year increase, primarily due to high demand for diabetes and obesity treatments [3][9] - Mounjaro and Zepbound are the leading drugs contributing significantly to revenue, with Mounjaro generating $3.84 billion (up 113% year-over-year) and Zepbound earning $2.31 billion in the U.S. [9] Group 2: Product and Pipeline Strength - Eli Lilly is not reliant on just two drugs; it has a diverse portfolio that includes successful treatments like Verzenio (breast cancer) and Jardiance (diabetes and heart failure) [10] - The company has several promising drugs in development, indicating potential for future growth [6][10] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - Eli Lilly is investing over $50 billion in U.S. manufacturing and is constructing four new factories, demonstrating long-term confidence in its growth strategy [11] - The company allocated $2.73 billion to research and development in the last quarter, underscoring its commitment to innovation [11]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly (LLY) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion, aiming to enhance its neuroscience pipeline and develop non-opioid pain management solutions [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition is valued at $1 billion, which includes upfront and milestone payments [4]. - SiteOne's lead asset, STC-004, is a phase II-ready drug that acts as a Nav1.8 inhibitor, designed to block pain signal transmission [2][3]. - The deal will also incorporate other investigational drugs targeting pain, cough, and conditions related to peripheral nervous system hyperexcitability [3]. Group 2: Strategic Fit and Benefits - The acquisition aligns with Eli Lilly's strategy to diversify its non-opioid pain pipeline, which already includes multiple candidates in mid-stage studies [8]. - The mechanism of STC-004 has been validated by the FDA's approval of Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Journavx, the first non-opioid oral pain signal inhibitor approved in over 20 years [9][10]. - SiteOne benefits from the acquisition as it lacks the commercial infrastructure to bring drugs to market, an area where Eli Lilly is well-established [10]. Group 3: Company Background - SiteOne Therapeutics, founded in 2010, has attracted interest from major pharmaceutical companies for its non-opioid pipeline and recently closed a $100 million funding round led by Novo Holdings [5]. - SiteOne has a partnership with Vertex Pharmaceuticals to advance NaV1.7 inhibitors for pain treatment [5]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Eli Lilly's stock performance is in line with the industry for the year-to-date period [6].

2017年，首款进口BTK抑制剂伊布替尼在国内获批上市，开启了B细胞淋巴瘤的靶向治疗时代，也改变 了慢性淋巴细胞白血病（CLL，或简称"慢淋"）的治疗格局。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，2024年之前，国内只有2款BTK（布鲁顿氏酪氨酸激酶）产品获批CLL 一线疗法。但今年以来，阿斯利康、诺诚健华各有一款BTK抑制剂在国内获批该适应证。而且，国内获 批的4款同一适应证产品中，有3款为第二代BTK抑制剂。 5月26日，北京协和医院血液科主任医师张薇教授在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，从疗效 看，已有的BTK抑制剂可能难分伯仲，但新一代药物的安全性更强，未来也需要继续更新以应对耐药挑 战，"所谓的'小神药'不神了以后怎么办？一定是药越多越好"。 5款BTK抑制剂获批，4款可用于慢淋一线治疗 存在耐药挑战，BCL2抑制剂研发仍在路上 河南省肿瘤医院血液科副主任周可树教授表示，不断迭代的BTK抑制剂不仅改变了CLL原有的治疗格 局，还在引领CLL进入无化疗时代。 以最新获批的国产BTK抑制剂奥布替尼为例，在一项多中心III期临床试验中，其一线治疗组完全缓解率 （CR）达到12.1%，显著高于传统化疗（历史数据约 ...