格隆汇10月30日｜礼来(LLY.US)涨超3%，报838.51美元。消息面上，礼来第三季纯利同比增长逾4倍至 55.8亿美元，调整后每股盈利为7.02美元，高于预期的5.69美元；营收同比增长54%至176亿美元，亦高 于预期的160亿美元。公司上调全年业绩指引，目前预计营收将在630亿至635亿美元之间，高于早前预 期的600亿美元至620亿美元；预计调整后每股盈利将在23至23.7美元之间，亦高于先前预期的21.75至23 美元。(格隆汇) ...

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) delivered a commanding third quarter, posting earnings and revenue that significantly exceeded expectations while raising full-year guidance. ...

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's third-quarter performance exceeded market expectations, driven by strong sales of weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, leading to an upward revision of revenue guidance for fiscal year 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported earnings per share of $7.02, surpassing analyst expectations of $5.69, and revenue of $17.6 billion, exceeding the market forecast of $16.01 billion [3][5]. - U.S. sales surged by 45% to $11.3 billion, primarily due to a 60% increase in product prescriptions, particularly for Mounjaro and Zepbound [3][7]. - Net profit for the third quarter reached $5.58 billion, or $6.21 per share, compared to $970.3 million, or $1.07 per share, in the same period last year [7]. Drug Sales Performance - Mounjaro generated $6.52 billion in revenue, a 109% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding the analyst forecast of $5.51 billion [5]. - Zepbound recorded $3.57 billion in revenue, a 184% increase year-over-year, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $3.5 billion [5][7]. - Combined sales of both drugs exceeded expectations by approximately $1.3 billion, with most of the outperformance attributed to Mounjaro [7]. Market Position and Competition - Eli Lilly maintains a leading position in the rapidly growing GLP-1 drug market, capturing about 58% market share, which includes competition from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy [7][9]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Novo Nordisk's recent acquisition bid for Metsera highlighting the urgency to catch up with Eli Lilly [11]. - To enhance drug accessibility, Eli Lilly announced a partnership with Walmart to provide discounted Zepbound for cash-paying patients [10]. Guidance Revision - The company raised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance to $63 billion to $63.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $60 billion to $62 billion [3][8]. - Adjusted earnings per share guidance was also increased from $21.75-$23 to $23-$23.70 [3].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's shares increased nearly 4% in premarket trading following the release of third-quarter earnings that surpassed expectations and an upward revision of its annual profit forecast [1] Financial Performance - The pharmaceutical company reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded market expectations [1] - Eli Lilly raised its annual profit forecast, indicating strong financial performance and positive outlook for the remainder of the year [1]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly raised its full-year profit and revenue forecasts due to strong international demand for weight-loss drugs, surpassing Wall Street's third-quarter earnings expectations [1] - The company's shares increased over 5% in premarket trading, despite concerns regarding drug price negotiations with the Trump administration [1] Company Performance - Eli Lilly's CEO attributed the strong performance to continued demand for GLP-1 drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro, indicating a robust portfolio [4] - Zepbound sales reached $3.6 billion for the quarter, exceeding expectations of $3.23 billion, despite anticipated softness due to CVS Health dropping it from its preferred list [5] - Mounjaro sales were reported at $6.5 billion, surpassing analysts' average expectation of $5.73 billion, with international sales nearly $1 billion above estimates [7] Market Context - Eli Lilly competes with Novo Nordisk in the weight-loss drug market, projected to reach $150 billion by the end of the decade [2] - The Trump administration's "most favored nation" policy aims to align U.S. drug prices with those in other developed nations, creating uncertainty in the market [2]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 7% over the past month, driven by a partnership with Walmart to sell its weight-loss drug, Zepbound, at a discounted price [2] - The stock is currently trading within a support range of $772.85 to $854.21, which has historically attracted significant buying interest [3] - Following previous rebounds from this support range, Eli Lilly's stock has achieved an average peak return of 20.2% [3] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a revenue growth of 36.8% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average growth of 23.4% over the past three years [5] - The company has a free cash flow margin of approximately -0.09% and an operating margin of 43.0% LTM [5] - The lowest annual revenue growth in the last three years was 1.5% [5] - Eli Lilly's stock trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 52.9 [5] Market Position - Compared to the S&P 500, Eli Lilly offers a higher valuation, increased revenue growth, and superior operating margins [5] - The stock has historically faced significant declines during market downturns, including a 51% drop during the Global Financial Crisis and a 43% drop during the Dot-Com bubble [6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.32%, S&P 500 futures down 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.55% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.67%, France's CAC40 down 1.04%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.61% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.86% to $59.96 per barrel, while Brent crude also dropped by 0.86% to $63.77 per barrel [4] Economic and Policy Updates - The meeting between Chinese President and US President Trump emphasized that economic and trade relations should be a stabilizing force rather than a point of conflict [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on interest rate cuts have led to skepticism in the market, with the 10-year US Treasury yield holding steady at 4.08% after a previous spike [5] - Powell also stated that the current AI investment wave is fundamentally different from the internet bubble, highlighting that AI companies are rooted in profitability and real economic activity [6] Company Earnings and Performance - Roblox reported a record Q3 with 151.5 million daily active users, a 70% year-over-year increase, and bookings of $1.92 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [7] - Microsoft exceeded Q1 expectations with revenues of $77.7 billion, driven by a significant increase in capital expenditures related to AI [7] - Alphabet's Q3 revenue was $102.35 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with strong performance in its cloud division [8] - Meta's Q3 net profit fell 83% due to a one-time tax expense, despite a 26% increase in revenue to $51.24 billion [9] - Starbucks reported Q4 revenue of $9.57 billion, a 5.5% increase, with same-store sales returning to positive growth [10] - Shell's Q3 profit exceeded expectations, supported by strong oil and gas trading performance despite weak energy prices [11] - TotalEnergies' Q3 adjusted net profit fell 2.3% to $3.98 billion, meeting analyst expectations [12] - Stellantis reported a 13% increase in Q3 revenue to €37.2 billion, but issued a cost warning that affected stock performance [13] - Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division saw a 79% increase in Q3 operating profit, driven by AI demand [14] Future Outlook - OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO that could value the company at $1 trillion, with plans to raise at least $60 billion [5] - Eli Lilly raised its full-year guidance due to strong sales from its weight loss and diabetes drugs, with Q3 sales reaching $17.6 billion [17] - Tesla plans to showcase its Cybercab model at the Shanghai International Import Expo in November [19]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) reported quarterly earnings of $7.02 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.02 per share, and significantly up from $1.18 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +16.61% [1][2] - The company achieved revenues of $17.6 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.91%, compared to $11.44 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Lilly has outperformed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and has topped revenue estimates four times in the same period [2] Earnings Outlook - The sustainability of the stock's price movement will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future earnings expectations [3][4] - Current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $7.05 on revenues of $17.44 billion, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $22.73 on revenues of $61.77 billion [7] Market Performance - Lilly shares have increased approximately 5.4% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the S&P 500, which has gained 17.2% [3] - The estimate revisions trend for Lilly was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Large Cap Pharmaceuticals industry, to which Lilly belongs, is currently in the bottom 25% of the Zacks industry rankings, which may negatively impact stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that investors should monitor these revisions closely [5]

Group 1 - US stock index futures experienced slight declines, with Nasdaq futures down 0.35%, S&P 500 futures down 0.24%, and Dow futures down 0.33% [1] - Major European indices collectively fell, with Germany's DAX down 0.15%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.61%, France's CAC down 0.91%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.52% [1] - OpenAI is reportedly planning to apply for an IPO as early as 2026, with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion [1] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reported record Q3 revenue of $102.3 billion, with a 34% year-over-year increase in cloud computing revenue [1] - Microsoft reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $77.67 billion and earnings per share of $3.72, both exceeding expectations; however, Azure and other cloud revenue fell short of buyer expectations [1] - Meta's Q3 revenue was $51.2 billion, with net profit declining to $2.7 billion due to one-time tax expenses; the company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance [1] Group 2 - Eli Lilly reported a 54% year-over-year revenue increase to $17.6 billion in Q3, raising its full-year revenue forecast [2] - Merck's Q3 sales reached $17.28 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.58, both exceeding expectations [2] - Stellantis reported a 13% year-over-year revenue increase to €37.2 billion in Q3, noting that US tariffs have caused approximately €1 billion in losses this year [2] - Shell's Q3 adjusted profit was $5.43 billion, surpassing expectations; the company announced a $3.5 billion stock buyback plan [2] - ServiceNow reported Q3 revenue of $3.41 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $4.82, both exceeding expectations; the company plans a 1-for-5 stock split [2] - eBay's Q3 sales grew 9% year-over-year to $2.82 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.36, exceeding expectations [2] - Carvana, a US used car retailer, reported a 54.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $5.65 billion in Q3, with earnings per share of $1.03, which fell short of analyst expectations [2] - KLA Corporation, a semiconductor testing equipment manufacturer, reported a 13% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.21 billion in Q1 FY2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $8.81, exceeding expectations [2] - Novo Nordisk is reportedly increasing its bid for Metsera, while Pfizer's $4.9 billion acquisition may face uncertainties [2] Group 3 - S&P has downgraded Strategy's credit rating to junk status at B-, citing significant "currency mismatch" risks [3]

Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported higher third-quarter profit [1] - Eli Lilly raised its full-year outlook [1] Market Dynamics - Surging demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 weight-loss drugs drove profit increase [1]