一季度业绩超预期, AI PC 需求逐步释放 联想集团(0992) [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——联想集团 1QFY25 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.18 | --- | |--------------------------------| | [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) | | 0755-23976666 | | qinheping027734@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880523110003 | 本报告导读： AI 设备、基础设施和服务市场需求强劲，有望受益于 AI PC 需求释放 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 盈利预测及投资建议：基于全球个人电脑市场的持续稳健复苏，公 司多款新品发布，以及 AI 设备、基础设施和服务市场的强劲需求， 我们看好联想长期增长潜力，调整公司 FY2025E/FY2026E 营业收 入分别为 619/636 亿 美 元 ( 前值为 622/652 亿美元 ) ， FY2025E/FY2026E 净利润分别为 12.3/16.2 亿 ...

Smarter technology for all Q1FY25 Earnings Announcement Aug 15, 2024 2024 Lenovo Internal. All rights reserved. 2024 Lenovo Internal. All rights reserved. Forward-Looking Statement This presentation contains "forward-looking statements", which are statements that refer to the expectations and plans for the future and include, without limitation, statements regarding Lenovo's future results of operations, financial condition or business prospects as well as other statements based on projections, estimates an ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company reported a strong year-on-year revenue growth of 20%, with net income increasing by 65% year-on-year to $350 million on a non-Hong Kong FRS basis [4] - Non-PC revenue mix increased by 5 points year-on-year to a historical high of almost 47% [4] - Group revenue reached $15.4 billion, up 20% year-on-year, with net profit up 38% and non-HK FRS net profit surging 65% [10] - Free cash flow increased by 33% year-on-year, contributing to a strong cash balance exceeding $3.6 billion [14] Business Line Performance Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) - IDG delivered double-digit revenue growth with an 11% year-on-year increase, driven by solid premium-to-market growth in both PC and non-PC segments [15] - Operating margin improved by almost 1 point year-on-year, with PC market leadership maintained in both shipments and activations [5] - Smartphone and tablet businesses delivered strong revenue growth of around 30% year-on-year, with notable growth in Asia Pacific, EMEA, and North America [6][15] Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) - ISG achieved a record-breaking 65% year-on-year revenue growth, exceeding $3 billion in quarterly sales for the first time [7][12] - Revenue from Storage, Software, and Services grew almost 60% year-on-year, setting a new record [7] - Neptune liquid-cooled service revenue grew more than 50% year-on-year, driven by increasing demand for AI workloads [7][16] Solutions and Services Group (SSG) - SSG delivered its 13th consecutive quarter of double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, with operating margin of 21% [8][18] - Managed Services and Project & Solution Services revenue grew double digits year-on-year, accounting for 55% of SSG revenue [8][18] Market Performance - The company achieved premium-to-market growth across all operating regions, with all business groups delivering double-digit growth [10] - The PC market is expected to enter a new refresh cycle driven by AI PCs, which are projected to represent more than 50% of the PC industry landscape by 2027 [6] - The global IT services market is expected to grow steadily, with AI services growing almost twice as fast as the market in general [9] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on hybrid AI, with significant investments in AI and computing across personal and enterprise AI agents [4][9] - Lenovo has built a full-stack AI portfolio, including AI devices, AI servers, and AI-native solutions and services [5][9] - The company is leveraging its industry-leading liquid cooling technology to meet increasing demand for AI workloads and capture growth opportunities in AI servers and storage markets [7][23] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of the global IT market and the company's ability to accelerate transformation and improve performance in the coming quarters [3] - The hybrid AI era is seen as a significant opportunity, with Lenovo well-positioned to lead with its full-stack AI capabilities and globalization advantages [9][22] - The company expects AI PCs to drive a new demand cycle, with significant growth in premium segment share and sustainable profitability [23] Other Important Information - The company announced a strategic partnership with Alat, a $100 billion fund, to enhance its supply chain and leverage growth momentum in the Middle East and Africa region [19][20] - Lenovo has made significant strides in sustainability, with 94,000 metric tons of products recycled since 2020 and a 29% representation of women in technical roles [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did IDG maintain margins despite increased component costs? - IDG maintained margins through a combination of improved product mix, strong pricing discipline, and operational excellence, with AUR (Average Unit Revenue) expanding by a couple of percentage points year-on-year [27][28] Question: What are the specific project wins with Alat in the Middle East? - The company has started approaching corporates in Saudi Arabia with the help of Alat, but specific project wins are pending shareholder approval at the EGM [30] Question: What is the AI server sales mix and margin for ISG? - ISG has seen robust traction in its AI server pipeline, with double-digit growth in orders, particularly from industries like banking, financial services, and research institutions [31][32] Question: How is AI PC contributing to premium segment growth? - AI PC shipments are currently around 15% of total shipments, with expectations for significant growth in the second half of the fiscal year and beyond, particularly with the launch of more sophisticated products [34][35] Question: Why is ISG still loss-making despite strong revenue growth? - ISG's profitability is impacted by ongoing investments in new portfolios, including AI infrastructure, but the company is focusing on optimizing its business model and operations to drive profit recovery [37][45] Question: What is the breakdown of smartphone business by key markets? - The smartphone business saw strong growth in Europe (43%), Asia (triple-digit), and North America (40%), with premium devices like the Razr and Edge franchises contributing 33% of sales [39] Question: How is enterprise demand for AI services evolving? - Enterprise demand for AI services is growing, with customers focusing on IT transformation, data modernization, and AI adoption, supported by Lenovo's AI fast-track services [48][49] Question: What is the inventory increase in the June quarter? - The inventory increase of $1.8 billion is primarily driven by enterprise business growth and preparation for strong seasonality, with a significant portion expected to be consumed in the current quarter [58]

Jovana Kuzmanovic My Buy rating for Lenovo Group Limited (OTCPK:LNVGY) (OTCPK:LNVGF) [992:HK] stays unchanged. LNVGY achieved better-than-expected financial results for Q1 FY 2025 (YE March 31, 2026), and its long-term outlook is good taking into account the growth runway for AI servers and AI PCs. But Lenovo is still trading at an attractive low-teens P/E multiple despite favorable growth prospects, which explains why I continue to assign a Buy rating to the stock. Investors can trade in Lenovo's shares on ...

计算机/计算机设备 公 司 研 究 联想集团（00992.HK） 2024 年 08 月 16 日 FY2025 业绩可期，FY2026 有待 AI PC 换机兑现 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/15 | | 当前股价(港元) | 10.020 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 12.260/7.230 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 1,242.95 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 1,242.95 | | 总股本(亿股) | 124.05 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 124.05 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 29.61 | 股价走势图 联想集团 恒生指数 -50% 0% 50% 100% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《AI PC 持续迭代，AI 服务器逐步放 量 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.5.24 《AI PC 软硬件持续优化，服务器增长 动能加强 ...

2024 年 8 月 16 日 公司研究 FY25Q1 业绩符合预期，AI 赋能各业务板块成长动力 ——联想集团（0992.HK）FY25Q1 业绩点评报告 要点 事件：FY25Q1 公司收入 154.47 亿美元，同比上升 19.7%、环比上升 11.7%， 非 PC 业务收入占比提升 5pct 至 47%，达历史新高；归母净利润 2.43 亿美 元，同比上升 37.3%、环比下降 2%，超彭博一致预期的 2.31 亿美元约 5.2%， 对应归母净利率为 1.6%，同比上升 0.2pct、环比下降 0.2pct。 PC 市场复苏，IDG（智能设备）业务收入&经营溢利同环比上升。1）FY25Q1 公司 IDG 业务收入 114.22 亿美元，同比上升 11.3%、环比上升 9.2%；经营 溢利 8.28 亿美元，同比上升 27.5%、环比增长 7.2%，主要系高端 PC 产品占 比提升 3.4pct，及商用 PC 换机开启驱动 ASP 提升。根据 IDC 数据，24Q2 全球 PC 出货量 6,490 万台，同比上升 3%，连续两个季度实现同比增长；联 想 PC 出货量 1,470 万台，同比上升 3.7%， ...

Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue increased by 20% year-over-year to $15.447 billion, with net profit attributable to equity holders up 38% to $243 million[3][4] - Group revenue increased by 20% in Q1, marking the first double-digit growth in two and a half years, driven by strong performance in infrastructure, high-end products, and services[7] - Total revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, was $15.447 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, with net profit attributable to equity holders rising to $243 million, up 38%[15] - Pre-tax profit increased to $312.995 million, up 37.2% from $228.127 million in the same period last year[75] Infrastructure Solutions Group Performance - Infrastructure Solutions Group sales surged 65%, driven by AI infrastructure products and increased GPU supply, with losses reduced by $23 million year-over-year[3] - Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue surged 65% YoY, reaching over $3 billion for the first time, driven by AI infrastructure investments and increased GPU supply[9] - Storage and high-performance computing sales accounted for 34% of Infrastructure Solutions Group revenue, with storage revenue hitting a record high[9] - Infrastructure Solutions Business Group revenue increased to $3,159.80 million, with operating loss narrowing to $37.27 million[20] Intelligent Devices Group Performance - Intelligent Devices Group revenue grew 11%, with segment profit up 27%, supported by new AI-powered PC products and strong commercial demand recovery[3] - Intelligent Devices Group revenue grew 11%, with high-end PC sales up 21% and smartphone sales up 142%, contributing to a 27% increase in operating profit[8] - High-end PC and smartphone sales grew 21% and 142% year-over-year, respectively, outpacing the overall revenue growth of 11%[5] - Smart Devices Business Group revenue increased to $11,421.64 million, with operating profit rising to $828.38 million[20] Solutions and Services Group Performance - Solutions and Services Group achieved record revenue of $1.9 billion, up 10% YoY, with a 21% operating margin, driven by strong demand for AI-driven solutions[7] - The Solutions and Services Group is expected to achieve double-digit year-over-year revenue growth, driven by its growth strategy and strong total contract value[13] Regional Revenue Growth - EMEA region revenue grew 26% YoY, driven by strong commercial PC sales and significant smartphone market share gains[11] - China market revenue accelerated to 21% YoY growth in Q1, supported by strong performance across all business groups[11] - Americas region revenue increased 15%, driven by strong growth in PCs, smartphones, and infrastructure products, with high-end smartphones boosting market share in North America[11] - APAC (excluding China) revenue grew 20% YoY (28% in local currency), supported by strong commercial PC sales in Japan and high-end smartphone sales[11] AI and Technology Investments - R&D expenses increased by 6% to support key AI innovations, reflecting the company's commitment to maintaining leadership in AI solutions[3] - The company expects that by 2027, nearly 60% of global PC shipments will be equipped with AI capabilities, creating new growth opportunities for the Intelligent Devices Group[12] - The Intelligent Devices Group is developing proprietary technologies to improve inference speed, language model compression, and memory usage, while expanding from hardware to components and software, including AI Core chips and AI Now personal assistant[12] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group plays a key role in the hybrid AI strategy, focusing on profitability and investing in differentiated technologies such as high-performance computing, storage, and edge devices[13] - The company's Neptune technology positions it favorably in the rising demand for liquid cooling solutions in data centers[13] Financial Metrics and Expenses - Gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 16.6%, primarily due to lower margins in the Infrastructure Solutions Group[15] - Basic and diluted earnings per share increased to 1.99 cents and 1.92 cents, respectively, up by 0.51 cents and 0.49 cents year-over-year[15] - Operating expenses for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, were $2.065 billion, with R&D expenses accounting for $475.995 million, a 5.5% increase year-over-year[16] - Operating expenses increased by 11% year-on-year, with asset impairment and write-offs totaling $47 million[17] - Advertising and promotional expenses increased by $52 million for new product launches and special events[17] - Strategic investment fair value loss of $11 million, compared to a gain of $31 million in the previous year[17] - Net foreign exchange loss of $17 million, down from $44 million in the previous year[17] - Employee benefit costs decreased to $1,076.77 million from $1,102.27 million, with long-term incentive plan costs also decreasing[18] - Advertising and promotional expenses increased to $226.63 million from $174.46 million[18] - R&D-related laboratory testing, services, and supplies increased to $63.88 million from $55.73 million[18] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating cash flow increased by 22% year-over-year to $791 million, with inventory days rising by 11 days due to new product launches and strong demand cycles[6] - Operating cash flow reached $1.091.604 million, a slight increase from $1.057.119 million in the previous year[75] - Lenovo's cash and cash equivalents totaled $3.973 billion as of June 30, 2024, with 32.7% in USD, 26.9% in CNY, and 9.6% in JPY[26] - 80% of Lenovo's cash as of June 30, 2024, was held in bank deposits, while 20% was invested in investment-grade liquid money market funds[26] Strategic Partnerships and Investments - The company entered a strategic partnership with Alat, a Saudi Arabian PIF subsidiary, to issue $2 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds and explore growth opportunities in the Middle East and Africa[6] - The company acquired 39% equity of the joint venture from Hefei Zhiju Shengbao Equity Investment Co., Ltd. for a consideration of RMB 1.895 billion (approximately USD 297 million), increasing its ownership in the joint venture to 90%[68] - The company has a call option and put option agreement with Yuanjia, allowing the company to purchase or Yuanjia to sell 99.31% equity of Zhiju Shengbao, with a maximum exercise price of RMB 500 million (approximately USD 69 million)[68] Debt and Financing - Lenovo's revolving loan facilities include a $2 billion facility issued on July 4, 2022, with a 5-year term, and a $500 million facility issued on January 19, 2024, with a 1-year term[27] - Lenovo's trade credit facilities amounted to $5.379 billion as of June 30, 2024, with $3.248 billion utilized[28] - Lenovo's short-term money market credit facilities totaled $2.170 billion as of June 30, 2024, with $40 million utilized[28] - Lenovo's forward foreign exchange contracts amounted to $11.488 billion as of June 30, 2024, with $11.459 billion utilized[28] - The company's available revolving and short-term loan credit facilities amounted to USD 5.17 billion as of June 30, 2024, with USD 40 million utilized[69] - The company's outstanding notes as of June 30, 2024, include USD 964.845 million with a 5.875% annual interest rate maturing in April 2025, and USD 894.366 million with a 3.421% annual interest rate maturing in November 2030[70] - The company issued USD 675 million convertible bonds with a 2.5% annual interest rate, maturing in August 2029, which can be converted into 583,994,205 shares at a conversion price of HKD 9.06 per share[71] - The company's total loans as of June 30, 2024, amounted to USD 3,623.692 million, with USD 1,013.681 million due within one year[73] Corporate Governance - The company has complied with the Corporate Governance Code of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, except for the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO as per Code Provision C.2.1[79] - The Board believes that having Mr. Yang Yuanqing as both Chairman and CEO is appropriate and in the best interest of the group, ensuring strategic continuity and operational stability[79] - The Board is predominantly composed of independent non-executive directors and meets quarterly to review the group's operations led by Mr. Yang[79] - Mr. William O. Grabe has been appointed as the Lead Independent Director with broad powers and responsibilities, including chairing meetings when considering the merger of Chairman and CEO roles[79] - The current Board structure, with one person holding both Chairman and CEO roles, a Lead Independent Director, and a majority of independent non-executive directors, is believed to effectively balance power and authority between the Board and management[79] Asset and Liability Management - Lenovo's capital expenditure for the three months ended June 30, 2024, was $305 million, a decrease from $331 million in the same period last year, primarily due to reduced investment in intangible assets under construction[24] - As of June 30, 2024, Lenovo's total assets were $40.485 billion, with total liabilities of $34.419 billion and a current ratio of 0.85[25] - Total financing liabilities decreased to $3.933.593 million from $3.961.689 million at the end of March 2024[76] - Short-term loans decreased to $48.836 million from $50.431 million at the end of March 2024[76] - Notes (current) significantly reduced to $964.845 million from $3.012.637 million at the end of March 2024[76] - Notes (non-current) increased to $2.048.445 million, as $964.814 million was reclassified from current to non-current[76] Trade and Other Payables - Trade payables aged 0-30 days increased to $6,149,549 thousand as of June 30, 2024, compared to $5,201,965 thousand as of March 31, 2024[60] - Total trade payables increased to $9,582,461 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $8,473,990 thousand as of March 31, 2024[60] - Deposits, prepayments, and other receivables decreased to $3,665,552 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $3,782,366 thousand as of March 31, 2024[61] - Other payables and accrued expenses increased to $13,209,921 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $12,751,775 thousand as of March 31, 2024[62] - Warranty provisions decreased to $816,062 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $808,330 thousand as of March 31, 2024[65] - Environmental restoration provisions decreased to $3,509 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $3,681 thousand as of March 31, 2024[65] - Restructuring provisions decreased to $69,901 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $108,939 thousand as of March 31, 2024[65] - Total provisions decreased to $889,472 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $920,950 thousand as of March 31, 2024[65] - Other non-current liabilities decreased to $677,818 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from $754,705 thousand as of March 31, 2024[67] - Deferred consideration remained unchanged at $25,072 thousand as of June 30, 2024[67] Share Capital and Employee Incentives - The company's issued and fully paid-up share capital as of June 30, 2024, was 12,404,659,302 shares, valued at USD 3,500.987 million[74] - The company purchased 7.082.222 shares for employee incentive plans during the quarter[77] Audit and Compliance - The audit committee reviewed the unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2024[78]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息设备/电脑与外围设备 证券研究报告 联想集团（0992）公司研究报告 2024 年 08 月 01 日 股票数据 0[7Ta月b3le1_日S收to盘c（kI港nf元o]） 10.08 52 周股价波动（港元） 6.97-12.26 总股本/流通 A 股（亿股） 124.05/124.05 总市值/流通市值（亿元） 1250/1250 [Table_QuoteInfo] 市场表现 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） -3.39% 8.47% 30.97% 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 分析师:杨蒙 Email:ym13254@haitong.com 分析师:魏宗 Email:wz16146@haitong.com | --- | |---------------------| | 证书:S0850517080008 | | Tel:(021)23185700 | | 证书:S0850523090001 | | Tel:021-23180000 | | 证书:S0850524040 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Lenovo Group, citing its leadership in the AI-driven PC and server markets and its potential to lead a new growth cycle in the industry [1][2] Core Views - Lenovo Group is positioned as a leader in the PC industry, with a strong focus on AI-driven transformation across its three core business groups: IDG (Intelligent Devices Group), ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group), and SSG (Solutions and Services Group) [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the PC and server markets, with AI PCs and AI servers driving future growth [1][2] - Lenovo's SSG business is a key profit driver, with an operating profit margin of 21.4% in FY2024, significantly higher than other business groups [1][4] Business Group Analysis IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - Lenovo's IDG business, which accounts for 73.12% of FY2024 revenue, is leading the next growth cycle in the PC industry, with a 22.7% global market share in 2023 [1][2] - The company is well-positioned in the AI PC market, with products expected to drive commercial orders in 2H24 [1][2] ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - Lenovo's ISG business, contributing 14.63% of FY2024 revenue, is a key player in the AI server market, ranking as the third-largest global AI infrastructure provider [1][3] - The company has introduced servers compatible with next-gen chips like B200 and GB200, which are expected to contribute significantly to performance in 2H24 [1][3] SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG, accounting for 12.25% of FY2024 revenue, is a high-margin business with a focus on AI-driven solutions for enterprises, SMEs, and consumers [1][4] - The group's "One Engine, Three Arrows" strategy aims to meet the intelligent needs of various customer segments, driving AI application deployment [1][4] Financial Projections - Lenovo is projected to achieve revenues of $60.92 billion, $66.06 billion, and $70.52 billion in FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with net profits of $1.22 billion, $1.55 billion, and $1.90 billion [2] - The company's PE ratios for FY2025-FY2027 are estimated at 13x, 10x, and 8x, reflecting a recovery in the PC and server markets [2] Market Position and Competitive Advantages - Lenovo holds a dominant position in the global PC market, with a 23% market share in 1Q24, and is a top player in the server market, ranking third globally [1][7] - The company's global supply chain and production capabilities, with 31 manufacturing bases worldwide, support its competitive edge in both PC and server markets [7][27] AI-Driven Transformation - Lenovo is accelerating its AI transformation, with AI PCs and AI servers expected to drive future growth [1][3] - The company's AI PC strategy includes three phases: AI Ready, AI Explore, and AI Master, with products expected to drive significant growth in 2H24 and beyond [30][31][35] Industry Trends - The PC market is showing signs of recovery, with AI PCs expected to drive a new growth cycle [1][2] - The AI server market is growing rapidly, with Lenovo well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [3][49][53]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the ICT sector, with a strong position in the personal computer market and a focus on AI-driven products [4][6]. - The introduction of AI PC products is expected to drive new growth opportunities in the personal computer and smart terminal sectors [4][10]. - The company is actively pursuing a mixed AI strategy to enhance its product offerings and infrastructure solutions [5][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1984, provides a range of products including personal computers, smartphones, and cloud infrastructure solutions, with a focus on intelligent transformation through its "3S Strategy" [4][6]. Market Performance - In Q2 2024, global PC shipments increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the company achieving a 4% increase in its PC shipments, maintaining a 23.6% market share [3]. - The company’s x86 server sales in China grew by 200.2% year-on-year, significantly outperforming the market [3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023/24, the company reported revenues of $56.864 billion, a decline of 8.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of $1.011 billion, down 37.15% [13][21]. - The company is expected to recover in the second half of the fiscal year, with a projected net profit growth of 20.9% to $1.222 billion in 2024/25 [21]. Business Segments - The company operates three main business groups: Intelligent Devices Group (IDG), Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), and Solutions Services Group (SSG) [8][16]. - The IDG remains the largest revenue source, although its share has decreased from 83.47% to 73.12% from 2020/21 to 2023/24 [15][16]. - The ISG and SSG are growing in importance, with their revenue shares increasing to 14.63% and 12.25%, respectively [16]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that AI PCs will transition from high-end products to mainstream offerings, driving a new cycle of industry growth [10]. - Revenue projections for the next three fiscal years indicate a recovery, with expected growth rates of 6.30%, 9.34%, and 6.85% [21][22]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set between HKD 13.85 and HKD 15.39, based on a relative valuation approach [25][26].