Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the new opportunities presented by the AI era, aiming for a significant leap in growth through various strategic initiatives [2][3]. - The first phase of growth was driven by the mobile internet boom, where the company established a strong traffic barrier through popular mobile applications, leading to substantial revenue from online advertising [1][23]. - The second phase of growth is characterized by the integration of AI capabilities, enhancing user experience and enabling the company to close the commercial loop in B2B scenarios, resulting in a significant increase in software subscription revenue [2][66]. - The company's global strategy is crucial for tapping into new revenue streams, particularly from overseas markets where user payment capabilities are higher, potentially leading to a revenue breakthrough exceeding 10 billion [3]. Summary by Sections Growth Perspective - The mobile internet boom was the core driver of the company's initial structural growth, with software business revenue nearing 1 billion in 2018 [1][23]. - The AI era is expected to drive the second wave of structural growth, with software subscription revenue surpassing 2 billion in 2022 [2][66]. - The company's global strategy is pivotal, focusing on overseas market expansion to achieve a revenue target exceeding 10 billion [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 41.13 billion, 51.25 billion, and 64.04 billion respectively, with net profits of 8.43 billion, 11.68 billion, and 15.79 billion [4][10]. - The company is valued at a target market capitalization of 55.1 billion HKD, with a target price of 11.1 HKD based on a 60x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10]. Key Business Transformation - The company has shifted its focus to a subscription model, enhancing profitability through AI-driven productivity tools, leading to a significant increase in both revenue and profit margins [57][62]. - The integration of AI capabilities has allowed the company to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the B2B sector, which is expected to drive future growth [66].

Core Viewpoint - Meitu has decided not to hold the Meitu Image Festival this year, focusing instead on product research and development, with plans to launch an AI Agent tailored for imaging soon [1] Financial Performance and Outlook - In 2024, Meitu's total revenue is projected to reach 3.341 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.9%, driven by AI technology enhancing subscription products and advertising [1] - Gross profit is expected to increase by 38.5% to 2.294 billion yuan, with a gross margin rising to 68.7% from 61.4% in the previous year [1] - Net profit is anticipated to surge by 120.0% to 806 million yuan, with adjusted net profit growing by 59.2% to 586 million yuan, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin imaging and design products [1] Business Segments - Imaging and Design Products: Revenue is expected to grow by 57.1% to 2.086 billion yuan in 2024, with paid subscription users increasing by 38.4% to 12.61 million and a subscription penetration rate of 4.7% [2] - Advertising Business: Revenue is projected to grow by 12.5% to 853 million yuan in 2024, with programmatic advertising revenue increasing by 35% due to upgrades in bidding systems and improved ad quality [3] - Beauty Industry Solutions: Revenue is expected to decline by 32.4% to 385 million yuan in 2024, with cautious growth expectations for this non-core segment [3] International Expansion and AI Capabilities - By the end of 2024, the monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China are expected to grow by 22% to 94.51 million, accounting for 36% of total MAU, with international revenue growth outpacing domestic [3] - New AI features have gained significant traction in various international markets, leading to top rankings in app stores across multiple countries [3] Strategic Partnerships - In May 2025, Meitu signed a $250 million convertible bond agreement with Alibaba, focusing on strategic cooperation in e-commerce, AI technology, and cloud computing [4] - The partnership aims to enhance Meitu's AI e-commerce tools and improve merchant marketing and operational efficiency, with Alibaba providing computational and technical support [4] Investment Recommendations - Meitu is viewed as a unique company with global reach and sustainable profitability in AI applications, with projected revenues of 4.5 billion, 5.5 billion, and 6.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 23%, and 21% respectively [5] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 880 million, 1.25 billion, and 1.56 billion yuan, with growth rates of 50%, 43%, and 24% respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [3][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 3.341 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.9%. The core growth drivers are attributed to the continuous empowerment of AI technology, which is expected to boost subscription products and advertising business [2][7]. - The gross profit is projected to increase by 38.5% to 2.294 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement to 68.7% from 61.4% in the previous year. Net profit is anticipated to rise significantly by 120% to 806 million yuan, with adjusted net profit growing by 59.2% to 586 million yuan [2][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities and expanding its international market presence, with a notable increase in monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China, which grew by 22% to 94.51 million, accounting for 36% of total MAU [6][7]. Business Segments Summary - **Image and Design Products**: Revenue is expected to grow by 57.1% to 2.086 billion yuan in 2024, with a 38.4% increase in paid subscription users to 12.61 million. The subscription penetration rate is projected to rise to 4.7% [2][7]. - **Advertising Business**: Revenue is forecasted to increase by 12.5% to 853 million yuan in 2024, with programmatic advertising showing a strong performance, growing by 35% due to upgrades in the advertising bidding system [2][7]. - **Beauty Industry Solutions**: Revenue is expected to decline by 32.4% to 385 million yuan in 2024, with the company adopting a cautious outlook for growth in this segment, which is considered non-core [2][7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.492 billion yuan in 2025, 5.519 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.698 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 23%, and 21% [7][8]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to reach 877 million yuan in 2025, 1.251 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.556 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 50%, 43%, and 24% respectively [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Meitu's stock has surged nearly 200% this year, reaching a new 52-week high of HKD 8.5, marking a return to its IPO price from 2016, with a current market capitalization of HKD 38.8 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Meitu's stock price fell to around HKD 0.5 due to failures in diversifying into mobile, short video, and social media sectors [1] - Since 2020, Meitu has refocused on its imaging and design product business, shifting its business model from advertising to paid subscriptions, leading to rapid growth in paid revenue and improved performance [1] - For 2024, Meitu's projected revenue is HKD 3.34 billion, with an adjusted net profit of HKD 590 million [1] Group 2: Market Position and Future Prospects - Meitu is considered a rare asset in the Hong Kong AI application market due to its high visibility in performance realization [1] - Major investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predict that the global productivity market will become a new growth driver for Meitu, with a potential paid penetration rate of 20% expected to accelerate monetization starting in 2026 [1] - In December 2024, Meitu plans to sell all its cryptocurrency holdings, which Morgan Stanley views as a turning point for the company's capital market status and investor perception [2] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Valuation - In May 2025, Meitu entered a strategic partnership with Alibaba, receiving a USD 250 million investment, which is seen as a way to alleviate market skepticism regarding the competitiveness of smaller AI firms [2] - Meitu's stock has been continuously bought by public funds and foreign capital this year, with a year-to-date increase of 200%, and a three-year increase of 1900% compared to its lowest price in 2022 [2] - Brokerage firms generally assign a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 30-35 times for Meitu in 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Meitu is a leading domestic imaging tool company that has undergone substantial changes in its fundamentals since 2023, focusing on core imaging and design product business after management changes and the sale of all cryptocurrency holdings [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2008, Meitu started with the image editing software "Meitu Xiu Xiu" and has built a diverse ecosystem covering imaging tools, design products, and beauty industry solutions [1] - The company has accumulated deep technical capabilities, aesthetic data, and user insights over more than a decade, driven by a focus on R&D rather than sales [1] Group 2: Business Focus and Changes - In June 2023, the founder and CEO Wu Xinhong replaced Cai Wensheng as chairman, indicating a shift towards a more focused business strategy [1] - The introduction of GenAI is expected to enhance product capabilities, increasing consumer life scenarios and expanding new product categories for business productivity [1] Group 3: Consumer Market Insights - Meitu's core consumer products, such as Meitu Xiu Xiu and Beauty Camera, cater to self-satisfaction and social needs, primarily targeting female users from the post-90s and post-00s generations [2] - There is significant potential for the domestic consumer market's payment rate to double, driven by generational shifts in the beauty and imaging sector [2] Group 4: Business-to-Business (B2B) Opportunities - The competitive landscape for Meitu's B2B products, including Meitu Design Studio and Kaipai, has eased, with AI operations replacing traditional studio shoots, helping e-commerce merchants reduce costs [2] - A strategic partnership with Alibaba is set to enhance the promotion of Meitu's AI e-commerce tools on Alibaba's platforms, facilitating penetration into small and medium e-commerce clients [2] Group 5: International Expansion - Since the second half of 2024, Meitu has increased investments in overseas markets, establishing offices and hiring local staff, which has led to a resurgence in overseas monthly active users (MAU) [3] - Successful AI features like "AI Hairstyle" and "AI Outfit Change" have contributed to the growth of Meitu's overseas products, demonstrating the effectiveness of technical advancements and localized operations [3] Group 6: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 851 million, 1.163 billion, and 1.509 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 37%, and 30% respectively [3] - A target price-to-earnings ratio of 50x for 2025 suggests a target market capitalization of 46.6 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the closing price on June 19, 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Meitu Inc. [2][7] Core Insights - Meitu Inc. is a leading player in the domestic imaging tools market, evolving through cycles with a focus on AI and aesthetics. The company has transitioned to a more concentrated business model following a management change and divestment from cryptocurrency, emphasizing core imaging and design products [6][9]. - The introduction of Generative AI (GenAI) has significantly enhanced the company's product capabilities, expanding both consumer (toC) and business (toB) offerings [6][8]. - The report anticipates substantial growth in adjusted net profit from 2025 to 2027, projecting figures of 851 million, 1,163 million, and 1,509 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 37%, and 30% [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Imaging Tools Leadership - Meitu Inc. has established a diverse ecosystem starting from its flagship product, Meitu Xiuxiu, and has developed various imaging tools and design products over the years [6][18]. - The company has a strong technical foundation and user insight, having invested heavily in R&D since its inception [6][25]. 2. Consumer (toC) Consumption Attributes - The consumer segment is driven by self-enhancement and social sharing needs, with a significant user base among young females, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s [6][49]. - The report suggests that the long-term payment rate in the domestic toC market has substantial room for growth, potentially doubling [6][8]. 3. Business (toB) Productivity Scene - Meitu's toB products, such as Meitu Design Studio, leverage AI to reduce costs for e-commerce businesses, alleviating competitive pressures in the market [6][8]. - A strategic partnership with Alibaba is expected to enhance the promotion of Meitu's AI tools on e-commerce platforms [6][8]. 4. International Expansion Efforts - The company has increased its investment in overseas markets, establishing offices and hiring staff in various regions, which has led to a resurgence in monthly active users (MAU) [6][8]. - Successful AI features like "AI Hairstyle" and "AI Outfit Change" have contributed to user growth in international markets [6][8]. 5. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenue growth for Meitu's imaging and design products at 42%, 29%, and 21% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [8][9]. - A target market capitalization of 46.6 billion HKD is set, reflecting a 33% upside potential from the closing price on June 19, 2025 [7][8].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's stake in Meitu (01357.HK) has decreased from 5.48% to 4.30% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on AI-driven commercialization in the imaging and design product sector, with a "buy" rating given for its growth potential and market positioning [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.14 billion, 4.99 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.8%, 20.6%, and 16.6% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 850 million, 1.14 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan for the same period, corresponding to EPS of 0.19, 0.25, and 0.33 yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 33.9%, and 27.9% [1] - Current stock price corresponds to PS ratios of 7.5, 6.2, and 5.3, and PE ratios of 36.5, 27.3, and 21.3 for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic imaging beautification market has a stable C-end user base with increasing willingness to pay, while the B-end is experiencing rapid growth in demand for e-commerce advertising and image production [2] - The company leverages its large C-end user base to build a precise demand discovery system, focusing on vertical scenarios to enhance product richness and usability [2] - As of December 2024, the company's MAU reached 266 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company aims to drive growth through B-end productivity scenarios and globalization, as the domestic C-end user growth potential is limited [3] - As of December 2024, the MAU in mainland China was 171 million, remaining stable year-on-year, while MAU outside mainland China reached 94.51 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [3] - The combination of AI empowerment, globalization, and productivity scenarios is expected to enhance payment penetration rates and ARPU [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Meitu Inc. [5] Core Insights - Meitu is positioned as a leader in the visual economy, leveraging AI to accelerate commercialization. The company focuses on image and design products, with a strong emphasis on AI-driven productivity and global expansion. The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 41.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 58.2 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 23.8%, 20.6%, and 16.6% [5][6][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meitu Inc. was founded in 2008 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2016. The company aims to merge art and technology, providing innovative image and design products while promoting digital upgrades in the beauty industry. The main business segments include image and design products, beauty solutions, and advertising services, covering both B2B and B2C markets [15][17]. Industry Analysis - The domestic image beautification market is experiencing stable growth in C-end user scale, with increasing willingness to pay. The B-end market is rapidly expanding, driven by AI that lowers creative barriers and enhances efficiency. The overall market size for image digitization in China is projected to approach 160 billion CNY by 2025, with significant growth in various application scenarios [30][32]. Competitive Advantages - Meitu has built a core advantage through a combination of user base, application scenarios, and technology. The company has a large user base, with MAU reaching 266 million as of December 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%. The company is transitioning from a tool-based application to a comprehensive image ecosystem, focusing on vertical scenarios and enhancing product richness and usability [46][49]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook for Meitu indicates substantial growth, with expected revenues of 41.4 billion CNY in 2025, 49.9 billion CNY in 2026, and 58.2 billion CNY in 2027. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 8.5 billion CNY, 11.4 billion CNY, and 14.6 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 33.9%, and 27.9% respectively [5][6][14]. Global Expansion Strategy - Meitu is actively pursuing a global expansion strategy, with a focus on increasing its user base outside of China. As of December 2024, MAU in markets outside of mainland China reached 94.51 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. The company aims to leverage AI capabilities to enhance product offerings and meet diverse local needs [63][64].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Meitu Inc. [5] Core Insights - Meitu is positioned as a leader in the visual economy, leveraging AI to accelerate commercialization. The company focuses on image and design products, with a strong emphasis on AI-driven productivity and global expansion. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 41.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 58.2 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 23.8%, 20.6%, and 16.6% [5][6][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meitu Inc. was founded in 2008 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in December 2016. The company aims to merge art and technology, providing innovative image and design products while promoting digital upgrades in the beauty industry. Its main business segments include image and design products, beauty solutions, and advertising, covering both B2B and B2C markets [15][17]. Industry Analysis - The domestic image beautification market is experiencing stable growth in C-end user scale, with increasing willingness to pay. The B-end market is rapidly expanding, driven by AI that lowers creative barriers and enhances efficiency. The overall market size for image digitization in China is projected to approach 160 billion CNY by 2025, with significant growth in various application scenarios [30][32]. Competitive Advantages - Meitu has built a core advantage through a combination of user base, application scenarios, and technology. The company has a large user base, with MAU reaching 266 million as of December 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%. The company is transitioning from a tool-based application to a comprehensive image ecosystem, focusing on vertical scenarios and enhancing product richness and usability [46][49]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 2.696 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 29.3%. Adjusted net profit for the same year is 356 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 334.9% year-on-year. The company expects continued growth in revenue and profit margins through 2027, with adjusted net profits projected at 1.456 billion CNY by then [6][14][24]. Global Expansion Strategy - Meitu is actively pursuing global expansion, with a focus on increasing its user base outside of mainland China. As of December 2024, MAU in markets outside of mainland China reached 94.51 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. The company aims to leverage localized product development and AI capabilities to enhance its global presence [63][64].