致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 呈交日期: 2026年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02689 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...

Summary of Jiulong Paper Industry Conference Call Company Overview - Jiulong Paper Industry was established in 1995 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2006, becoming the world's largest paper producer and a leader in pulp-paper integration [3][4] - The company’s main products include various types of environmentally friendly packaging paper, cultural paper, and high-end all-wood pulp paper, with a total paper production capacity exceeding 25 million tons by FY2025 [3][4] Key Financial Highlights - FY2025 revenue is projected to be CNY 63.24 billion, with corrugated box paper revenue accounting for nearly 90% [2][4] - The net profit per ton is expected to recover to CNY 102, indicating a bottom reversal in profitability [2][4] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% in revenue over the past decade [3][4] Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a narrowing supply-demand gap, with production capacity utilization currently at 60%-65% [2][8] - The import volume of paper is expected to decline by 15%-20% in 2025 due to reduced marginal impacts from zero tariffs on imported paper [2][10] - The domestic corrugated box paper capacity is projected to reach 87.73 million tons by 2025, with growth rates slowing down significantly [7][9] Capital Expenditure and Profitability - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with significant investments made in pulp-paper integration projects in Guangxi and Hubei [6][18] - As capital expenditures decrease, depreciation and financial costs are expected to decline, driving profitability upward [6][18] Competitive Advantages - Jiulong Paper has diversified its raw material sources, with total fiber capacity expected to reach 10.7 million tons, including 7.9 million tons of wood pulp [2][14] - The company has established significant cost control advantages, particularly in logistics, with transportation costs for wood chips reduced by approximately 50% due to self-built infrastructure [2][15] Product Structure and Market Position - The product structure is shifting from waste paper-based products to wood pulp-based products, enhancing profitability stability [16] - Jiulong Paper holds about 25% market share in the corrugated box paper market and is the leading player in the industry [7][8] Future Outlook - Projected net profit growth rates for FY2026-2028 are 106%, 15%, and 10%, respectively, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2][18] - The company is expected to benefit from a more rational competitive landscape, improving its pricing power and profitability [18] Conclusion - Jiulong Paper is positioned for steady growth with a robust safety margin in its current valuation, making it a favorable investment opportunity [18]

Core Viewpoint - The company has transitioned from a phase of growth driven by scale expansion to a new phase focused on profitability through pulp-paper integration, with significant improvements in net profit reported for FY26H1 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 1995, the company is the world's leading paper group and a key player in pulp-paper integration, producing various types of environmentally friendly packaging paper, cultural paper, and high-end wood pulp paper [1] - The company has completed the first stage of growth driven by scale expansion and is now at the starting point of the second stage, focusing on solidifying its profitability [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The corrugated paper industry is undergoing a rebalancing from oversupply to a mild easing, with new capacity additions significantly slowing down [2] - The impact of zero tariffs on imports is diminishing, with domestic paper prices under pressure, leading to a significant reduction in the price gap between imported and domestic paper [2] - The industry and downstream inventory have undergone deep destocking, and with policy-driven consumption recovery, capacity utilization and profit margins are expected to rise from low levels [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is extending its strategy upstream by investing in large-scale wood pulp production in locations such as Beihai, Chongqing, and Tianjin, which will reduce reliance on external pulp sources [2] - As new large-scale pulp projects come online in 2026-2027, the company's self-sufficiency in wood pulp is expected to increase significantly, allowing for a shift towards higher-margin products [2] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including cultural paper and white cardboard, which helps mitigate cyclical fluctuations in specific paper types [2] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Revenue growth is projected at 16%, 10%, and 6% for FY2026-2028, with net profit growth expected at 106%, 15%, and 10% respectively, leading to EPS of 0.77 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.98 yuan [3] - The company's PE ratio for FY2026 is estimated at 7.8x, significantly lower than the average of 24.5x for comparable companies, leading to a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) despite adjustments to earnings forecasts and target price [1] Core Insights - UBS has raised its coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao Port for 2026 to 2028, predicting prices of RMB 750, 720, and 670 per ton respectively, due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia [1] - The anticipated increase in energy prices is expected to raise the average cost per ton by approximately RMB 15 to 20 [1] - Earnings forecasts for Nine Dragons Paper for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 have been revised down by 11%, 2%, and 3% respectively, with the target price adjusted from HKD 11 to HKD 10.8 [1] - The company consumes about 0.26 tons of coal per ton of paper, and rising oil prices may further increase logistics costs, impacting profitability for the second half of fiscal 2026 [1] - Management plans to increase the proportion of imported wood chips from less than 1% to 10% to 20% by the end of 2026, which is expected to enhance supply security and improve wood chip quality, albeit at an additional cost of approximately RMB 200 per ton compared to domestic supply [1] - This shift in sourcing is projected to increase the average production cost by about RMB 5 to 10 per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao port for 2026 to 2028 due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia, leading to increased cost pressures for Nine Dragons Paper [3] Group 1: Cost Pressures - The average cost per ton is expected to rise by approximately 15 to 20 RMB due to energy price shocks [3] - The company consumes about 0.26 tons of coal per ton of paper, and rising oil prices may further increase logistics costs, impacting profitability for the second half of the fiscal year ending June 2026 [3] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - UBS has lowered Nine Dragons Paper's earnings estimates for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 11%, 2%, and 3% respectively [3] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted from 11 HKD to 10.8 HKD while maintaining a "Buy" rating [3] Group 3: Management Plans - Management plans to increase the proportion of imported wood chips from less than 1% to 10% to 20% by the end of 2026, aiming to enhance supply security and improve wood chip quality [3] - The cost of imported wood chips is approximately 200 RMB more per ton than current domestic supplies, which may increase the average production cost by about 5 to 10 RMB per ton [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company has transitioned from a phase driven by scale expansion to a phase focused on raw material self-sufficiency, marking a significant evolution in its business model [3][14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the integration of pulp and paper production, which is expected to enhance its profitability as it reduces reliance on external raw materials [5][88]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1995, the company is the world's largest paper producer and a leader in pulp-paper integration, with a product range that includes various eco-friendly packaging papers, cultural papers, and high-end wood pulp papers [3][14]. - The company has achieved significant growth over the past 30 years, with a revenue of 63.24 billion yuan in FY2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% from FY2015 to FY2025 [3][14]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is currently experiencing a rebalancing from oversupply to a more moderate state, with new capacity additions significantly slowing down [4]. - The domestic market for corrugated paper is expected to see limited new capacity additions from 2026 to 2030, with a total of 335,000 tons for boxboard and 187,000 tons for corrugated paper planned [4][68]. Production Capacity and Integration - The company is enhancing its production capacity through significant investments in wood pulp production, which is expected to increase its self-sufficiency in raw materials [5][96]. - By the end of 2025, the company aims to achieve a total design capacity of 8.2 million tons for fiber raw materials, including 5.4 million tons of wood pulp [96]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 16% for FY2026, 10% for FY2027, and 6% for FY2028, with net profit growth expected to be 106%, 15%, and 10% respectively [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.77 yuan for FY2026, 0.89 yuan for FY2027, and 0.98 yuan for FY2028 [5][7]. Market Position - The company holds a dominant position in the boxboard market, with a significant share of the domestic market, and is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand and the reduction of excess inventory [87]. - The company’s cost advantages stem from its integrated operations, including self-owned power plants and a waste paper recycling system, which enhance its competitive edge in the market [87].

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689.HK) is facing increased cost pressures due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia, leading to an upward revision of coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao Port for 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 1: Cost and Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its coal price forecasts for Qinhuangdao Port to RMB 750, 720, and 670 per ton for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [1] - The overall impact of energy price shocks is expected to increase average costs by approximately RMB 15 to 20 per ton [1] Group 2: Earnings and Target Price Adjustments - UBS has revised its earnings estimates for Nine Dragons Paper for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 down by 11%, 2%, and 3% respectively [1] - The target price for Nine Dragons Paper has been adjusted from HKD 11 to HKD 10.8 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Market Performance and Analyst Ratings - As of March 23, 2026, Nine Dragons Paper closed at HKD 6.82, down 6.19%, with a trading volume of 15.685 million shares and a turnover of HKD 108 million [1] - The stock is primarily rated as "Buy" by investment banks, with 9 firms issuing buy ratings in the last 90 days and an average target price of HKD 11.94 [1] - Nine Dragons Paper has a market capitalization of HKD 34.112 billion, ranking first in the paper manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - UBS reports that Nine Dragons Paper (02689) is facing increased cost pressures due to tightening global energy markets and quota reductions in Indonesia, leading to an upward revision of Qinhuangdao port standard coal price forecasts to RMB 750, 720, and 670 per ton for 2026 to 2028 [1] - The overall impact of rising energy prices is expected to increase average costs by approximately RMB 15 to 20 per ton, prompting UBS to lower earnings estimates for Nine Dragons Paper by 11%, 2%, and 3% for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, and to adjust the target price from HKD 11 to HKD 10.8 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The company consumes about 0.26 tons of coal per ton of paper, and the rise in oil prices may further elevate logistics costs, which is anticipated to pressure profitability for the second half of the fiscal year ending June 2026 [1] Group 2 - Management plans to increase the proportion of imported wood chips from less than 1% to 10% to 20% by the end of 2026, aiming to enhance supply security and improve wood chip quality, although imported wood chips are approximately RMB 200 more expensive per ton than current domestic supplies [1] - This strategy is expected to increase the company's average production costs by about RMB 5 to 10 per ton [1]

Dear Non-registered Holder(s) (Note 1) , Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (the "Company") — Notification of publication of 2025/2026 Interim Report (the "Current Corporate Communication") The English and Chinese versions of the Company's Current Corporate Communication are available on the Company's website at www.ndpaper.com and the website of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Stock Exchange") at www.hkexnews.hk respectively (the "Website Version"). The Company strongly recommends you to a ...

The English and Chinese versions of the Company's Current Corporate Communication are now available on the Company's website at www.ndpaper.com and the website of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the "Stock Exchange") at www.hkexnews.hk respectively (the "Website Version"). The Company strongly recommends you to access the Website Version of the Current Corporate Communication and all future Corporate Communications (Note) . If you have elected to receive the Corporate Communications in printed form ...