Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi coming online. This has resulted in a rapid reduction in pulping costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance beyond expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit increments due to its self-produced pulp advantage. By FY25, the company’s production capacity for white card and cultural paper is expected to reach 1.8 million and 2.27 million tons, respectively, with further expansions planned for FY26H1 [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus remains on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials, with additional production capacity planned for FY26 and FY27. This ongoing expansion is expected to further enhance the company's profitability [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY26-FY28 are 72.67 billion, 73.99 billion, and 74.76 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. The attributable net profit is forecasted to be 4.08 billion, 4.41 billion, and 5.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 131%, 8%, and 14%, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 times [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216%-231%. After considering perpetual bonds, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315.2%-336.5%. This strong performance is primarily due to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] - The scale effect of pulp production is becoming evident, with the company's pulp production capacity in Guangxi contributing to a rapid reduction in production costs and an increase in the self-supply ratio of pulp, which are key factors driving the company's performance above expectations [2] - The pulp segment is contributing significantly to profits, while the waste paper segment is showing improvement in profitability. Despite cultural and white card paper prices being at historical lows, the company is still able to generate profit growth due to its self-produced pulp advantages [3] - The company continues to expand its pulp production capacity, with total pulp capacity reaching 23.5 million tons by FY25. The focus on increasing the self-supply ratio of raw materials is expected to further enhance profitability. The company has plans to build additional chemical pulp production facilities in Chongqing and Tianjin, with expected production increases in the coming years [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 72.67 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 74.76 billion yuan for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 2%, and 1%. The attributable net profit is expected to be 4.08 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 5.04 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 131%, 8%, and 14%. The corresponding P/E ratios are 8.9, 8.3, and 7.2 [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has experienced a stock price increase of over 4%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast indicating significant profit growth for FY26H1 [1] Company Summary - The company expects a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 315% to 337% [1] - The significant profit growth is primarily driven by the effective integration of pulp and paper production, with a total pulp capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1 [1] - An additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp is expected to be put into production in FY27, enhancing the self-sufficiency rate of pulp and providing substantial cost advantages [1] Industry Summary - Since the second half of 2025, prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded from their lows, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton [1] - The price of white card paper has risen by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton since the end of August [1] - The company benefits from a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, allowing it to take full advantage of the improving supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] - Although cultural paper prices have declined, the company maintains stable profitability due to its pulp and paper integration advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) has announced a positive earnings forecast, with significant profit growth expected for FY26H1, driven by integrated pulp and paper operations and improved market conditions [1] Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.15 to 2.25 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216% to 231% [1] - After excluding perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is projected to be 1.95 to 2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 315% to 337% [1] Industry Dynamics - The company benefits from significant cost advantages due to an increase in self-sufficiency in wood pulp, with a production capacity of 5.43 million tons as of FY26H1, and an additional 2 million tons of chemical pulp expected to be operational in FY27 [1] - Prices for corrugated box paper and white card paper have rebounded since H2 2025, with the average price of corrugated paper increasing by 33 yuan/ton to 3,648 yuan/ton, and white card paper prices rising by 309 yuan/ton to 4,239 yuan/ton [1] - The company has a production capacity of 17.13 million tons of corrugated box paper and 3 million tons of white card paper, positioning it well to benefit from improvements in industry supply and demand [1] - Despite a decline in cultural paper prices, the company's profitability remains stable due to the advantages of its integrated pulp and paper operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, exceeding expectations, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production and improvements in pricing dynamics within the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding 201 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to 3.789 billion, 4.671 billion, and 5.702 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.8, 7.1, and 5.9 times [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant effects, with the company owning 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, including 2 million tons of chemical pulp, and plans to increase capacity to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [1] - The industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with certain paper types seeing price recoveries. As of FY26H1, the company has a total capacity of 17.13 million tons for corrugated box paper, 2 million tons for gray bottom white paper, 3 million tons for white card paper, and 2.97 million tons for cultural paper [1] Group 3: Product Pricing and Market Trends - The price of corrugated box paper has been rising due to factors such as increased costs of recycled paper and seasonal demand, with average prices reaching 3,648 yuan per ton for box paper and 2,857 yuan per ton for corrugated paper in 2025H2, reflecting increases of 33 and 174 yuan per ton, respectively [2] - White card paper prices have also been on an upward trend, reaching 4,239 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, up 309 yuan per ton from August, with expectations for profitability improvement in this segment [2] - Cultural paper prices are under pressure, with an average price of 4,843 yuan per ton in 2025H2, down 489 yuan per ton, but the company is expected to maintain stable profitability in this segment due to its integrated production advantages [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, with an expected growth of 216%-231% year-on-year, and a growth of 315%-337% when excluding perpetual bond interest [6] - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant benefits, contributing to improved profitability [6] - The company is expected to increase its chemical pulp production capacity to 743 million tons by FY27, enhancing its cost advantages [6] - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with some paper prices rebounding, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's profitability [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 59.496 billion RMB - FY2025: 63.241 billion RMB - FY2026E: 73.954 billion RMB - FY2027E: 80.367 billion RMB - FY2028E: 85.478 billion RMB - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.789 billion RMB for FY2026, 4.671 billion RMB for FY2027, and 5.702 billion RMB for FY2028 [5][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 1.00 RMB for FY2026 and 1.22 RMB for FY2028 [5] Industry Context - The company operates in the light manufacturing sector, specifically in the paper industry, which is experiencing a recovery in demand and pricing [6] - The report highlights that the company has a significant production capacity exceeding 20 million tons, which provides substantial economies of scale [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, with an expected range of RMB 2.15-2.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding perpetual bond interest of RMB 201 million, the attributable net profit is expected to be RMB 1.95-2.05 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [8] - The integration of pulp and paper operations has shown significant effects, contributing to improved profitability. The company has a total of 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, with plans to increase this to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [8] - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with some paper prices rebounding, which is expected to contribute to profit elasticity [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - FY2024: RMB 59.496 billion (5% growth) - FY2025: RMB 63.241 billion (6% growth) - FY2026E: RMB 73.954 billion (17% growth) - FY2027E: RMB 80.367 billion (9% growth) - FY2028E: RMB 85.478 billion (6% growth) [7] - Attributable net profit forecasts are: - FY2024: RMB 751 million - FY2025: RMB 1.767 billion - FY2026E: RMB 3.789 billion - FY2027E: RMB 4.671 billion - FY2028E: RMB 5.702 billion [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - FY2024: RMB 0.16 - FY2025: RMB 0.38 - FY2026E: RMB 0.81 - FY2027E: RMB 1.00 - FY2028E: RMB 1.22 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, with a projected year-on-year growth of 216% to reach between 2.15 billion and 2.25 billion RMB, slightly above the forecast of 2 billion RMB by Morgan Stanley [1][1][1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose by 3.39% to 8.24 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.96 million HKD [1][1][1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the company's overall performance for 2026 will remain robust, despite the first half traditionally being a slow season for paper consumption, which may lead to slight corrections in paper prices [1][1][1] - The company is expected to benefit from an optimized product structure and improved cost performance, which should mitigate the impact of reduced demand during the consumption off-season, contributing to stable annual profits [1][1][1] Industry Summary - Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant achievements in the company's integrated pulp and paper operations, projecting a capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and over 5.4 million tons of wood pulp by the end of 2025 [1][1][1] - The firm estimates that by 2027, the company's self-sufficiency in raw materials will reach 10.2 million tons [1][1][1] - The demand for containerboard is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% over the next five years, while the supply side is seeing reduced capital expenditure from industry leaders, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [1][1][1] - The integrated pulp and paper sector may experience a cyclical turning point against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, with leading companies in this space likely to benefit more [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) is experiencing a positive market response, with a stock price increase of 3.39% to HKD 8.24, and a trading volume of HKD 25.96 million. Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, projecting a year-on-year growth of 216% to reach between RMB 2.15 billion and RMB 2.25 billion, slightly above their previous estimate of RMB 2 billion, indicating overall alignment with expectations [1][1][1] Group 1: Company Performance - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Nine Dragons Paper will maintain robust performance throughout 2026, despite the first half traditionally being a low-demand season for paper manufacturers, which may lead to slight price corrections. However, the company's optimized product structure and improved cost performance are expected to mitigate the impact of reduced demand during this period, supporting stable annual profits [1][1][1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant achievements in the company's integrated pulp and paper operations, projecting that by the end of 2025, Nine Dragons will have a production capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and more than 5.4 million tons of wood pulp. It is expected that by 2027, the self-sufficiency in raw materials will reach 10.2 million tons [1][1][1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The demand for containerboard is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the next five years, while the supply side is seeing a reduction in capital expenditures from industry leaders, leading to an improved supply-demand balance in the sector. The integrated pulp and paper sector may experience a cyclical turning point against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, with leading companies in this space likely to benefit more [1][1][1]

格隆汇2月2日丨玖龙纸业(02689.HK)公布，将于2026年2月25日(星期三) 在香港九龙观塘海滨道181号 One Harbour Square 22楼1室举行董事会会议，藉以审批(其中包括)公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31 日止六个月中期业绩及其发布，以及考虑宣派中期股息。 ...