Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, with a projected year-on-year growth of 216% to reach between 2.15 billion and 2.25 billion RMB, slightly above the forecast of 2 billion RMB by Morgan Stanley [1][1][1] Company Summary - As of the latest report, Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose by 3.39% to 8.24 HKD, with a trading volume of 25.96 million HKD [1][1][1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the company's overall performance for 2026 will remain robust, despite the first half traditionally being a slow season for paper consumption, which may lead to slight corrections in paper prices [1][1][1] - The company is expected to benefit from an optimized product structure and improved cost performance, which should mitigate the impact of reduced demand during the consumption off-season, contributing to stable annual profits [1][1][1] Industry Summary - Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant achievements in the company's integrated pulp and paper operations, projecting a capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and over 5.4 million tons of wood pulp by the end of 2025 [1][1][1] - The firm estimates that by 2027, the company's self-sufficiency in raw materials will reach 10.2 million tons [1][1][1] - The demand for containerboard is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% over the next five years, while the supply side is seeing reduced capital expenditure from industry leaders, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [1][1][1] - The integrated pulp and paper sector may experience a cyclical turning point against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, with leading companies in this space likely to benefit more [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) is experiencing a positive market response, with a stock price increase of 3.39% to HKD 8.24, and a trading volume of HKD 25.96 million. Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2026, projecting a year-on-year growth of 216% to reach between RMB 2.15 billion and RMB 2.25 billion, slightly above their previous estimate of RMB 2 billion, indicating overall alignment with expectations [1][1][1] Group 1: Company Performance - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Nine Dragons Paper will maintain robust performance throughout 2026, despite the first half traditionally being a low-demand season for paper manufacturers, which may lead to slight price corrections. However, the company's optimized product structure and improved cost performance are expected to mitigate the impact of reduced demand during this period, supporting stable annual profits [1][1][1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights the significant achievements in the company's integrated pulp and paper operations, projecting that by the end of 2025, Nine Dragons will have a production capacity of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp, over 2 million tons of wood fiber, and more than 5.4 million tons of wood pulp. It is expected that by 2027, the self-sufficiency in raw materials will reach 10.2 million tons [1][1][1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The demand for containerboard is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the next five years, while the supply side is seeing a reduction in capital expenditures from industry leaders, leading to an improved supply-demand balance in the sector. The integrated pulp and paper sector may experience a cyclical turning point against the backdrop of RMB appreciation, with leading companies in this space likely to benefit more [1][1][1]

格隆汇2月2日丨玖龙纸业(02689.HK)公布，将于2026年2月25日(星期三) 在香港九龙观塘海滨道181号 One Harbour Square 22楼1室举行董事会会议，藉以审批(其中包括)公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31 日止六个月中期业绩及其发布，以及考虑宣派中期股息。 ...

董事會召開日期 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司 (「本公司」) 董事會 (「董事會」)謹此公佈將於二零 二六年二月二十五日(星期三) 在香港九龍觀塘海濱道181號One Harbour Square 22 樓1室舉行董事會會議，藉以審批(其中包括)本公司及其附屬公司截至二零二五年 十二月三十一日止六個月中期業績及其發佈，以及考慮宣派中期股息。 承董事會命 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司 公司秘書 鄭慧珠 於本公告刊發日期，本公司董事會由五名執行董事張茵女士、劉名中先生、 張成飛先生、Ken Liu先生及張連鵬先生；以及四名獨立非執行董事陳曼琪 女士、李惠群博士、曹振雷博士及孫寶源先生組成。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負 責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部 或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （於百慕達註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：2689） 香港，二零二六年二月二日 * 僅供識別 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 玖龍紙業(控股)有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02689 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 800,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper's performance exceeded expectations, with projected profits for FY26H1 estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production, leading to a significant value reconstruction for the company [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a profit of 1.95-2.05 billion yuan for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0% [1] - The profit growth is primarily attributed to increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs, resulting in a substantial increase in gross profit, with the main profit contribution coming from pulp [1] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - Incremental profit contributions mainly come from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities expected to ramp up in FY25H1 and FY26H1 [2] - New production capacities include 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp at the Beihai base, as well as additional capacities in Hubei and Guangxi [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - For FY26H2, the company anticipates further price increases for broadleaf pulp, while cultural and white card paper prices and profit per ton are at historical lows, suggesting potential for price recovery [2] - The profitability of integrated pulp and paper production capacity is expected to be a key driver of performance, with additional production and ramp-up in FY26H2 and FY27 [2]

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan for FY2026H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 41%-48% [1] - Excluding perpetual capital securities holders' share, the profit is expected to be 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 315%-337% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 50%-58% [1] - The profit growth is primarily driven by increased product sales volume, rising sales prices, and a decrease in raw material costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit [1] Group 2 - The company has nearly 29 million tons of annual design capacity for paper and wood pulp as of June 30, 2025, with over 5 million tons of new paper capacity added from FY2022 to FY2025, achieving a CAGR of 8% [1] - The company is expected to have a total of 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity, over 2 million tons of wood fiber capacity, and over 5.4 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of 2025 [1] - Future expansion plans include an additional 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity in locations such as Chongqing, Tianjin, and Beihai, with an expected self-sufficiency in raw materials reaching 10.2 million tons by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The demand for boxboard and corrugated paper in China has a five-year CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5%, respectively, with continued growth expected due to the ongoing development of the national economy and demand from consumer goods, e-commerce, logistics, and express delivery sectors [2] - Supply-side constraints are anticipated post-2025 as leading companies reduce capital expenditures, leading to limited incremental capacity and a gradual improvement in the industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to drive prices and profitability upward [2] - The company adjusts profit forecasts for FY26-28 to 3.85 billion, 4.24 billion, and 4.59 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.9X, 8.1X, and 7.5X [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded both its own and market expectations for net profit in 1HFY26, achieving a profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [1][2] Group 1: Performance Highlights - The company expects sales of approximately 12 million tons, with a net profit per ton of about 160 yuan, driven by self-produced pulp cost and production volume [1] - The black paper segment, particularly corrugated box paper, is experiencing a stable recovery, with significant price increases anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to rising waste paper prices and seasonal demand [1] - The company is projected to have a net profit of around 100 yuan per ton in the black paper segment as the industry supply stabilizes and demand grows steadily [1] Group 2: Pulp Production and Financial Quality - The company disclosed a pulp production of 3 million tons for FY25, with expectations of over 2 million tons in 1HFY26, which is a key driver for the profit exceeding expectations [2] - The company’s self-produced pulp self-sufficiency rate is close to 100%, leading to an increase in excess profits compared to peers, with an average net profit per ton for white paper expected to be above 300 yuan [2] - The company is set to invest approximately 11 billion yuan in capital expenditures for FY26, indicating a conclusion to the current round of capital spending, which is expected to improve financial quality [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the higher-than-expected production and profit per ton, the company has raised its net profit forecasts for FY26-27 by 32% and 39% to 3.6 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been increased by 29% to 9 HKD, corresponding to a P/B ratio of 0.7x and 0.6x for FY26-27, indicating a potential upside of 21% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper (NDP) preannounced its 1HFY26 results, estimating attributable net profit between Rmb2.15bn and Rmb2.25bn, significantly exceeding expectations, with adjusted net profit potentially increasing 315–337% YoY to Rmb1.95–2.05bn [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - NDP's sales volume in 1HFY25 was approximately 12 million tonnes, with a per-tonne net profit around Rmb160, attributed to low costs and high output of self-produced pulp [1] - The firm’s pulp output in FY25 was 3 million tonnes, with 1HFY26 output exceeding 2 million tonnes, contributing to stronger-than-expected earnings [2] - NDP's average per-tonne profit of white paper exceeded Rmb300 in 1HFY26, indicating robust profitability [2] Group 2: Market Trends - Profit from linerboard and corrugated board is recovering steadily, with per-tonne net profit from this segment expected to reach around Rmb100 in 2H25 due to rising waste paper prices and seasonal demand [1] - The industry supply is expected to stabilize in 2026, with only Sun Paper's new capacity coming online, while demand is anticipated to grow steadily [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - NDP has three chemical pulp projects with a total capacity of 2 million tonnes scheduled to start operations in 4Q26–1Q27, which may enhance profitability in the traditional black paper market [3] - The firm guides capital expenditure of around Rmb11bn for FY26, lower than previous years, which is expected to improve financial statements as profit and cash flow recover [4] - Net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been raised by 32% and 39% to Rmb3.6bn and Rmb4bn, respectively, with the stock trading at 0.6x FY26e and 0.5x FY27e P/B [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company has exceeded performance expectations, with projected profits for FY26H1 estimated between 1.95 billion to 2.05 billion RMB, driven by the integration of pulp and paper operations [2][9] - The integration of pulp and paper production is a key factor in the company's value reconstruction, with significant profit contributions expected from new capacities in Hubei and Beihai [9] - The company anticipates continued profit growth in FY26H2 and FY27 due to the release of integrated pulp and paper profits and improvements in the profitability of boxboard and corrugated paper [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 59,496.37 million RMB - FY2025A: 63,240.54 million RMB - FY2026E: 69,300.00 million RMB - FY2027E: 76,292.37 million RMB - FY2028E: 84,020.79 million RMB - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 4.9%, 6.3%, 9.6%, 10.1%, and 10.1% respectively [3] - Net profit projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 750.68 million RMB - FY2025A: 1,767.11 million RMB - FY2026E: 4,004.52 million RMB - FY2027E: 4,395.59 million RMB - FY2028E: 4,842.75 million RMB - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 131.5%, 135.4%, 126.6%, 9.8%, and 10.2% respectively [3] - The company’s PE ratios are projected to decrease from 20.31 in FY2024A to 7.23 in FY2028E, indicating improving valuation metrics [3] Market Data - The current stock price is 7.46 HKD, with a market capitalization of 35,004 million HKD and a 52-week price range of 2.82 to 7.46 HKD [6]