I recently joined The REIT Forum and if you are looking for more investment ideas like this one, get them exclusively at The REIT Forum with access to our subscriber only portfolios.When I last wrote about Oracle Corporation ( ORCL ) before its Q2 FY26 earnings , I rated the stock a Buy. Unfortunately, the stock dropped after its earnings, when theAmrita runs a boutique family office fund in beautiful Vancouver, where she leads the investment strategy for the family fund. The fund's objective is to invest c ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC has identified Oracle and Salesforce as two U.S. stocks likely to outperform in the upcoming earnings season due to their strong competitive advantages and exposure to artificial intelligence growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Outlook - Oracle has a remaining performance obligation of $523 billion, reflecting a 433% year-over-year increase, indicating strong future revenue visibility [5] - In the latest quarter, Oracle secured $68 billion in new customer contracts, including significant clients like Meta and Nvidia [5] - Salesforce has launched Agentforce, integrating AI agents into its platform, which positions the company to meet the increasing demand for intelligent automation in enterprises [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Position - Both Oracle and Salesforce are expanding their AI capabilities in a rapidly evolving tech landscape, with Oracle's cloud infrastructure and autonomous database being critical for enterprises deploying AI applications [2] - Salesforce's AI-powered customer engagement tools and Oracle's cloud database offerings are addressing essential needs as businesses seek competitive advantages through technology [4] - The acceleration of AI infrastructure spending continues despite macroeconomic volatility, raising questions about whether these companies can convert their technological leadership into financial results that justify current valuations [4] Group 3: Financial Performance Metrics - Oracle's total cloud revenue reached $8 billion, marking a 33% year-over-year growth, surpassing the previous year's 24% growth [6] - Cloud infrastructure sales for Oracle increased by 66% to $4.1 billion, with GPU-related revenue soaring by 177%, showcasing its competitive edge in capturing AI infrastructure spending [6]

Group 1: Chinese Market Reactions - Multiple A-share companies announced "cooling" measures, including Jia Mei Packaging, InGravity Media, and others, indicating potential stock price suspensions if abnormal increases continue [1] - The FTSE China A50 index futures declined, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures also fell [1] Group 2: U.S. Market Performance - Major U.S. indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones down approximately 270 points, the Nasdaq falling over 1.5%, and the S&P 500 dropping nearly 1% [3] - Technology stocks broadly declined, with notable drops in companies such as Applovin Corporation (-9.86%), Arm (-5.00%), and Broadcom (-4.63%) [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The U.S. military began withdrawing personnel from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar as a precaution amid escalating tensions with Iran [5][6] - Oil prices reached their highest levels since October due to geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding U.S. military actions and threats against Iran [4]

Core Viewpoint - Technology stocks experienced a widespread decline on Wednesday, with significant drops in major companies' stock prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Meta (META.US) fell over 1.7% [1] - Amazon (AMZN.US) decreased by more than 1.8% [1] - Tesla (TSLA.US) dropped over 1.9% [1] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) saw a decline of more than 2.6% [1] - AMD (AMD.US) decreased by over 2.3% [1] - Oracle (ORCL.US) fell by more than 3% [1] - Netflix (NFLX.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Google (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US) each dropped over 1.3% [1] - Apple (AAPL.US) experienced a decline of 0.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - MySQL, owned by Oracle, has not seen any code commits in its GitHub repository for over three months, raising concerns about its future as an open-source project and its current status as a genuine open-source initiative [1][4]. Development Activity - MySQL's development activity has reached a historical low, with the total number of commits in 2025 dropping to the lowest level since the project's inception in 2000-2001, significantly below pre-2019 levels [5][9]. - The official MySQL Server repository has recorded zero commits as of now [7]. Impact of Workforce Changes - A significant workforce reduction occurred in September 2025, with approximately 70 core developers laid off, which coincides with the observed stagnation in MySQL's development [9]. - This mass layoff has been linked to Oracle's strategic shift away from the community version of MySQL, leading to concerns about the project's viability [10][11]. Strategic Shift of Oracle - Oracle is increasingly focusing on proprietary product lines, including enterprise versions and cloud services, while resources for the open-source community version are being reduced [11]. - The MySQL team has been integrated into Oracle's HeatWave business unit, indicating a shift towards cloud analytics and AI capabilities rather than traditional community version development [11]. Community Concerns - Industry experts express skepticism about Oracle's commitment to maintaining MySQL as a genuine open-source project, suggesting that it has become more of a nominal open-source initiative [12][16]. - Comparisons are drawn with MariaDB, which maintains a more active and transparent development process, highlighting the perceived decline of MySQL's community engagement [15][16]. User Experience and Technical Issues - Users have reported performance declines with newer MySQL versions, and significant bugs have persisted for extended periods, raising concerns about the software's reliability [16][17]. - The lack of substantial new releases since MySQL 8.0 in 2018 has led to dissatisfaction among users, with the next major version not expected until 2024 [17]. Future Outlook - Despite MySQL's current popularity and installation base, the stagnation of its open-source project may compel enterprises to reconsider their database choices, with a noticeable trend of users migrating to MariaDB [22]. - While MySQL is unlikely to disappear immediately, continued stagnation could lead to a decline in its usage [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial implications and community impacts of AI data centers, particularly focusing on the Colossus supercomputer cluster by xAI in Memphis, Tennessee, highlighting the hidden risks associated with their financing structures and the burden on local communities [6][12][17]. Group 1: AI Data Centers and Financial Structures - Colossus is a supercomputer center with an initial power load of 150 megawatts and a planned total capacity exceeding 1.2 gigawatts, which is nearly 40% of Memphis's peak electricity demand [6]. - Tech companies like OpenAI and Meta are heavily investing in data centers, with OpenAI's planned computing power valued at $1.4 trillion, raising questions about the sources of funding for these "money-eating beasts" [6][12]. - The financing of data centers is structured through Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), allowing tech companies to offload significant expenditures from their balance sheets while securing long-term contracts and predictable cash flows [7][12]. Group 2: Community Impact and Local Economy - The construction of Colossus initially created thousands of jobs and increased local tax revenues, but the long-term effects include rising electricity prices and environmental concerns [7][17]. - By 2025, the average electricity price in Tennessee is projected to rise to 13.88 cents per kilowatt-hour, a 12% increase from the previous year, with wholesale prices in data center-heavy areas experiencing significant fluctuations [7]. - Local communities face challenges such as deteriorating water quality and increased noise and pollution from backup natural gas turbines, leading to health issues like rising asthma cases [17]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Risks - Over $120 billion has been raised for data center SPVs, with major tech companies like Meta, xAI, and Oracle participating in complex financing transactions [12]. - The financing model has evolved, with private credit markets becoming a primary source of funding, often involving pension funds and insurance companies seeking stable returns [10][13]. - The total borrowing by tech companies from private funds is expected to reach approximately $450 billion by the end of 2025, with a significant portion directed towards long-term project financing [13].

Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 14, 2026, to introduce the full-year import and export situation for 2025, which is significant for assessing China's external demand performance and related industry prosperity [1][5] Sector Hotspots and Rotation - The U.S. has relaxed export controls on Nvidia's H200 chips to China, as announced on January 13, 2026. This adjustment, previously indicated by former President Trump, allows for the sale of this AI chip, with the U.S. Department of Commerce responsible for approval and security review, potentially benefiting the domestic semiconductor industry and AI-related sectors [2][6] Peripheral Markets and Related Assets - On Tuesday, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.80%, Nasdaq down 0.10%, and S&P 500 down 0.19%. Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Intel up over 7% and AMD up over 6%, while Micron and Qualcomm fell over 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped 1.84%, with notable declines in Chinese concept stocks, which may exert pressure on A-share sentiment [3][7] Commodity Market Dynamics - In domestic commodity futures, methanol rose 2% to 2308.00 yuan, fuel oil increased 5% to 2560.00 yuan, silver surged 6% to 22336.00 yuan, and tin climbed 4% to 398380.00 yuan, indicating significant volatility in energy and base metals [4][8] - Internationally, spot gold reached a historical high of $4631.34 per ounce, with New York futures surpassing $4640 per ounce. Spot silver and New York futures both exceeded $89 per ounce, reflecting heightened market risk aversion [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry has purchased put options on Oracle (ORCL), indicating a bearish outlook on the company amidst ongoing concerns about the AI bubble [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Michael Burry's investment strategy includes buying put options on Oracle, which suggests he anticipates a decline in the company's stock price [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The purchase of put options follows Burry's criticism of the AI bubble, a topic that has garnered significant media attention in recent months [1]

Core Insights - Mar Vista U.S. Quality Strategy reported a net-of-fees gain of +0.20% in Q4 2025, underperforming the Russell 1000® Index (+2.41%) and the S&P 500® Index (+2.65%) [1] - The strategy's performance was positively influenced by stock selection in communication services, consumer discretionary, and financials, while detracted by selections in information technology, materials, and healthcare [1] - The letter indicated that in 2026, markets will need to balance strong fundamentals with increasing economic uncertainties [1] Company-Specific Insights - Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) was highlighted as a stock that negatively impacted the Mar Vista U.S. Quality Strategy's performance in Q4 2025 [2] - Oracle's one-month return was 8.50%, and its shares increased by 30.94% over the last 52 weeks, closing at $204.68 per share with a market capitalization of $588.07 billion on January 12, 2026 [2] - Investor enthusiasm for Oracle in 2025 was initially driven by multi-billion-dollar contracts with AI companies like OpenAI and Meta, but sentiment shifted to skepticism in Q4 due to concerns over the return profile of significant capital investments related to approximately $500 billion in contracts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry is shorting Oracle Corp. due to concerns over its high debt and unnecessary investments in cloud computing, which he believes are not justified [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Position - Burry holds put options on Oracle and has been shorting the stock directly for the past six months [2]. - He previously disclosed short positions on Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, indicating a broader skepticism towards certain tech stocks [2]. Group 2: Oracle's Financial Situation - Oracle's outstanding debt is approximately $95 billion, making it the largest issuer outside the financial sector in Bloomberg's high-rated index [4]. - The company's stock experienced a significant drop of about 40% from its peak in September, following a brief surge due to optimistic cloud business forecasts [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Comparisons - Burry expresses skepticism about the necessity of Oracle's current investments and its positioning in the market [3]. - He avoids shorting major tech companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft, believing their core business strengths will remain intact despite potential economic challenges [4]. - Burry views Nvidia as a concentrated target for shorting due to its popularity and perceived overvaluation in the AI sector [5].