完胜男性同行？"泡泡玛特"基金背后的"她投资" 过去一年多，以泡泡玛特为代表的新消费个股持续强势破圈，相关公司股价走势堪称惊艳。截至6月6 日，多只重仓相关标的的基金产品也有亮眼表现。如广发成长领航一年持有A、申万菱信乐融一年持有 A、恒越匠心优选一年持有A等产品的年内收益率均超过50%。 与泡泡玛特同样表现亮眼的还有老铺黄金与蜜雪集团。老铺黄金年内上涨277.62%，自去年6月上市以 来的股价涨幅已超12倍；今年3月上市的蜜雪集团股价震荡上扬，上探618.5港元/股后连续两日回调， 年内仍有85%的涨幅。 新消费个股的持续上涨，也带动了相关重仓基金业绩水涨船高。Wind数据显示，截至6月6日，包括 QDII基金在内，一季度末重仓泡泡玛特的产品有207只（仅计算初始基金，下同），200只年内回报为 正，占比近97%。 其中，业绩最好的广发成长领航一年持有A，今年以来的累计回报为65.18%；申万菱信乐融一年持有 A、恒越匠心优选一年持有A同期收益率分别为58.05%、54.49%；信澳优享生活A、南方香港成长等17 只产品则收获30%以上的收益。 亮眼的基金业绩，让新消费赛道成为投资者热议的焦点。"这波新消费 ...

Core Insights - The "new consumption trio" represented by Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, and Mixue Group has gained significant investor interest, showcasing strong market performance with substantial year-to-date stock price increases and total market capitalizations exceeding 698 billion HKD [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Laopu Gold has achieved a year-to-date increase of 278.04%, with a total market capitalization of 156 billion HKD [2]. - Pop Mart's stock has risen by 261.64%, reaching a market capitalization of 326.33 billion HKD [2]. - Mixue Group has seen a year-to-date increase of 95.86%, with a market capitalization of approximately 215.62 billion HKD [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Trends - Economic downturns have shifted consumer spending from traditional luxury items like Moutai to more affordable and emotionally satisfying products like blind boxes [3]. - The rise of Pop Mart exemplifies this trend, with a 106.9% year-over-year revenue growth in 2024 and a staggering 475% growth in overseas markets, driven by the "blind box + IP" model [3]. - Laopu Gold's positioning as a blend of luxury and asset preservation appeals to consumers' desires for both status and security during uncertain times [3]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - As of the first quarter of 2025, 207 funds have heavily invested in Pop Mart, with a total holding value of approximately 9.928 billion HKD [6]. - Institutional investors have noted high customer loyalty and engagement, with Pop Mart's member sales contributing 92.8% of total revenue and a member repurchase rate of 49.4% [6]. - Despite concerns over valuation, some analysts maintain a positive outlook on the new consumption sector, citing stable consumer preferences among younger demographics [7]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - There are ongoing debates regarding the valuation of new consumption companies, with some investors expressing caution over potential market corrections if growth slows or interest in IP diminishes [7]. - Dynamic pricing methodologies are suggested to adapt to market changes and consumer feedback, emphasizing the importance of understanding core market dynamics [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pop Mart's Labubu has become a global cultural phenomenon, significantly boosting the company's market value to HKD 326.3 billion, showcasing the impact of China's manufacturing upgrade [1] - Labubu, designed by a Hong Kong artist and inspired by Nordic monsters, has been produced in mainland factories and sold through a global sales network, leading to a remarkable revenue increase for Pop Mart [1] - In 2024, Pop Mart is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 13.04 billion, a year-on-year growth of 106.9%, with overseas and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan business revenue reaching CNY 5.07 billion, a staggering increase of 375.2% [1] Group 2 - Labubu's appeal lies in its dark style and lack of clear cultural boundaries, making it more accessible to consumers from various cultures, which is a departure from traditional IPs [2] - Pop Mart's strong marketing capabilities, including leveraging celebrity influence, have played a crucial role in creating buzz around Labubu [2] - The success of Labubu illustrates the need for China's manufacturing sector to integrate cultural innovation to elevate its industry status beyond traditional manufacturing [2] Group 3 - The emergence of successful companies like Pop Mart indicates that China's manufacturing industry is evolving, with many more potential success stories on the horizon [3] - Other examples of industry upgrades include Lao Pu Gold, which has innovated beyond traditional gold selling practices, and the milk tea industry represented by Mixue Ice City, which has expanded globally through innovation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of Pop Mart from a blind box retailer to a potential luxury brand, highlighting its rapid growth and innovative strategies in the collectible toy market [1][20]. Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - Pop Mart's stock has surged approximately 9 times since early 2024 and nearly 20 times since its lowest point in October 2022 [1]. - The LABUBU series contributed 3.04 billion yuan in revenue, marking a year-on-year increase of over 700%, surpassing the company's iconic IP, Molly [5]. - The company has successfully built a flexible supply chain model, reducing inventory turnover days from 159 to 100 days [5]. Group 2: Marketing and Sales Strategies - Pop Mart has expanded its physical presence, doubling the number of stores in three years and introducing automated vending machines to enhance accessibility [6]. - The launch of the "Paqi" app and other online platforms has led to a 50% repurchase rate, supported by a membership system that has attracted over 40 million members [6][7]. - The company has effectively utilized social media and collaborations with celebrities to enhance brand visibility and desirability, leading to significant sales spikes [18][20]. Group 3: Industry Positioning and Future Potential - The article draws parallels between Pop Mart's business model and that of luxury brands, emphasizing the importance of scarcity and community engagement in driving consumer desire [26][27]. - Pop Mart is positioned to potentially transition into a luxury brand by leveraging high-end collaborations and limited editions, similar to strategies employed by established luxury brands [20][28]. - The success of LABUBU in high-profile fashion events and collaborations indicates a shift towards becoming a recognized luxury brand, with some items already fetching prices as high as 14,839 yuan in the secondary market [18][27].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has reached new highs, leading to divergent opinions among investors regarding its future trajectory [2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Renqiao Asset expressed concerns about the overheating of the new consumption sector, suggesting that the significant price increases of companies like Pop Mart indicate a bubble [2] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the Chinese IP industry, naming Pop Mart and Laopu Gold as top picks, with a rating of "overweight" [2] - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights that IP products are among the best-performing consumer categories this year, despite most companies not seeing significant demand recovery [2] Group 2: Investment Risks and Concerns - A private equity figure warned that the current popularity of LABUBU may not be sustainable, comparing it to the hype around brands like Heytea and Nayuki, suggesting that current performance may not reflect future potential [3] - Concerns were raised about Pop Mart's reliance on limited edition products and the potential for overselling future performance, with a warning that current valuations require substantial profit growth to be justified [3] - Risks associated with the "gambling-like" nature of blind boxes were noted, emphasizing the need for improved regulations to protect minors [4] - The dependency on IP and the lifecycle of products pose risks, as the lifespan of a single IP typically ranges from 9 months to 2 years, which could lead to performance volatility if new hits are not consistently launched [5] - High valuation pressures were highlighted, with Pop Mart's price-to-earnings ratio significantly exceeding the global toy industry average, raising concerns about potential stock price corrections if growth targets are not met [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Pop Mart's stock price is compared to the speculative hype surrounding Moutai in early 2021, indicating a trend of following market fads rather than solid fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Perspectives - A private equity manager noted that Pop Mart's performance last year compensated for losses in Moutai, highlighting the unexpected strength of Pop Mart's stock [2]. - The private equity manager expressed concerns that Pop Mart may have overextended its future earnings potential, suggesting that current valuations require significant profit growth to be justified [4]. - The stock price of Pop Mart has increased over tenfold in just a year and a half, rising from 19.05 HKD to 252.6 HKD per share [6]. Group 2: Market Performance and Growth - Pop Mart's revenue from the Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan regions, as well as overseas markets, reached 5.07 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 375.2%, with Southeast Asia becoming the second-largest market [3]. - The company has successfully launched multiple IPs, with 13 IPs generating over 100 million CNY in revenue, and the new IP THEMONSTERS achieving 3.04 billion CNY in revenue, a 726.6% increase [3]. Group 3: Fund Manager Behavior - Recent trends show that new generation fund managers are increasingly investing in growth-oriented new consumer brands like Pop Mart, moving away from traditional consumer stocks [7]. - The number of funds holding Pop Mart shares has significantly increased, from 36 funds holding 51.56 million shares to 207 funds holding 68.75 million shares in just three months [6]. Group 4: New vs. Old Consumption - The market is witnessing a shift from traditional consumption (e.g., liquor, home appliances) to new consumption (e.g., cultural and entertainment products), reflecting changing consumer values [10]. - The investment logic for both Pop Mart and Moutai is seen as similar, with both representing a form of cultural and emotional value rather than just practical utility [10][11].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant rise of the collectible toy industry, particularly driven by the success of Pop Mart's LABUBU, which has become a global phenomenon since 2024, leading to increased market interest and investment in the sector [2][5][8]. Company Performance - Pop Mart's LABUBU has contributed to a remarkable financial performance, with its revenue from the THE MONSTERS series exceeding 30 billion yuan in 2024, and the company achieving a market capitalization of over 330 billion HKD [5][8]. - The stock price of Pop Mart surged from below 10 HKD in Q4 2022 to 252.6 HKD by June 2025, marking an increase of over 24 times [5][8]. - Other companies in the collectible toy space, such as Blokku, have also seen significant stock price increases, with Blokku's stock rising 40.85% on its debut and reaching new highs [6][8]. Market Trends - The collectible toy market has grown nearly tenfold from 63 billion yuan in 2015 to 600 billion yuan in 2023, with projections estimating it will reach 1,101 billion yuan by 2026 [8]. - The main consumer demographic for blind box toys consists of individuals born in the 1990s and 2000s, who represent 78% of the market and exhibit strong purchasing power [8]. IP Development and Competition - The success of LABUBU is attributed to its unique design and the influence of celebrities, which has helped it break into mainstream culture [4][6]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on IP development, with Pop Mart and others needing to continuously innovate to avoid becoming obsolete [9][10]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies like 52TOYS and KAYOU also exploring overseas markets and developing their own IPs to enhance their market positions [12][15]. International Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue reached 50.66 billion yuan in 2024, a 375.2% increase, with Southeast Asia being the most lucrative market [14][15]. - Other companies, such as KAYOU and 52TOYS, are also expanding internationally, with plans to open stores in Hong Kong and Macau, and to establish a presence in North America and Southeast Asia [15]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic recovery by 2025 is revitalizing the Hong Kong stock market, with the IP toy industry being a focal point for capital market attention, highlighted by 52TOYS' IPO plans and valuation of 4.273 billion RMB [1][6]. Company Overview - 52TOYS, the third-largest IP toy company in China, has adopted an "IP hub" strategy since its brand launch in 2015, focusing on diverse consumer needs and extensive product development [1][3]. - The company has launched various product lines, including blind boxes and transformable mechas, and has developed its first original IP, "Beast Box" [3][12]. - As of 2024, 52TOYS has 35 proprietary IPs and 80 licensed IPs, with a total of 2,800 SKUs and over 500 new products introduced annually [3][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 shows growth from 462.9 million RMB to 630.1 million RMB, with a notable increase in sales cost and a fluctuating gross margin [10][11]. - The company reported a net loss of 1.22 billion RMB in 2024, with adjusted net profits showing a gradual improvement [12]. - The revenue structure is increasingly reliant on licensed IPs, which accounted for 64.5% of total revenue in 2024, while proprietary IPs contributed only 24.5% [12]. Market Position and Challenges - Despite its growth, 52TOYS faces challenges in creating blockbuster proprietary IPs comparable to competitors like Pop Mart's MOLLY [8][12]. - The company has seen a significant shift in its distribution strategy, reducing direct stores from 19 in 2022 to 5 by early 2025, while increasing reliance on distributors [12][14]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in overseas markets, where 52TOYS has seen over 100% CAGR in revenue since 2022 [13][14]. Strategic Partnerships - Recent strategic investments from Wanda Film and Ru Yi Holdings have increased 52TOYS' valuation and provided a 7% stake to these investors, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [5][6]. - A strategic partnership with Wanda Film aims to leverage both companies' strengths in IP toy product development and marketing [6]. Future Outlook - The company's future success hinges on its ability to innovate and develop impactful proprietary IPs while navigating the competitive landscape of the global toy market [16][18]. - The ongoing global economic recovery is expected to enhance consumer demand for IP toys, presenting opportunities for growth [1][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the global success of Pop Mart, a Chinese toy company, which has created a phenomenon in the collectible toy market, comparable to Disney, through its innovative blind box and plush toy offerings. This success has led to a surge in the number of related businesses in the industry, indicating a growing trend in the collectible toy market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has surged by 900% over the past year, with a market capitalization exceeding HKD 314.2 billion, making it a standout performer in the current consumer market [2]. - The collectible toy market in China has seen a significant increase in registered companies, with 26,800 existing as of May, and a 48.2% year-on-year growth in new registrations in the first four months of the year [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth - The company has successfully tapped into emotional value, creating characters like Labubu that resonate with consumers, leading to substantial sales growth. For instance, the average single-store revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2024 [6]. - Pop Mart's international expansion strategy has been effective, with significant sales in Southeast Asia, particularly after collaborations with local artists and influencers [6][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - Despite its success, the company faces challenges such as market saturation, counterfeit products, and a decline in consumer trust due to the speculative nature of blind box purchases [8][10]. - The company has experienced a drop in member repurchase rates from 58% in 2019 to 49.4% in 2022, indicating potential issues with customer retention and satisfaction [10]. - The reliance on a few successful IPs raises concerns about sustainability, as the lifecycle of popular products may be shortening, and the company lacks a cohesive narrative to support its brand [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai, a benchmark in the Chinese stock market, has seen a shift in investor focus towards Pop Mart, known as "plastic Moutai," as fund managers reduce their holdings in Moutai and increase their investments in Pop Mart due to its significant stock price growth and appeal to younger consumers [1][3][11]. Group 1: Guizhou Moutai's Performance - Moutai's stock price was 2465.23 yuan in 2021, with a market capitalization of 3.1 trillion yuan, which remains unmatched [1]. - The stock price has shown a decline from 1524 yuan on January 2, 2025, to 1509.96 yuan on June 4, 2025, indicating a decrease of 1% [11]. - Moutai's revenue growth has slowed, with targets for 2025 set at only 9% growth, marking the first time in nine years that the annual growth target has been reduced to single digits [14]. Group 2: Pop Mart's Rise - Pop Mart's stock price increased from 9.8 HKD in October 2022 to 246 HKD by June 2025, representing a more than 20-fold increase [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 106.92%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion yuan, up 188.77% [12][13]. - The number of funds holding Pop Mart increased from 13 at the end of 2023 to 207 by the end of the first quarter of 2025, reflecting growing institutional interest [8]. Group 3: Fund Manager Behavior - Notable fund managers, including those from Southern Fund and Huatai PineBridge, have shifted their focus from Moutai to Pop Mart, with significant reductions in Moutai holdings [3][11]. - Fund managers are increasingly attracted to Pop Mart's innovative business model, which appeals to younger consumers seeking new experiences and social currency [11][12]. - The shift in investment strategy is linked to the changing consumption patterns of Generation Z, who favor novelty and emotional engagement over traditional brand loyalty [11][12]. Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The overall market for traditional consumer goods, including Moutai, is experiencing a slowdown, with many investors seeking opportunities in new consumption models [11]. - Pop Mart's membership repurchase rate has declined from 58% in 2019 to 49.4% in 2024, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability [9][12]. - Moutai's recent cross-industry investments, including in AI technology, indicate a strategic shift to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [14][18].