近日，全球潮流文化娱乐领军品牌泡泡玛特（POP MART）上海面积最大门店——上海城市旗舰店在上海南京东路世茂广场盛大启幕。 凭借多元IP主题空间焕新登场、近800平方米沉浸式体验及常驻DIY工作台，强势跻身南京路步行街新晋潮流地标。 作为目前上海面积最大的泡泡玛特门店，新店占据南京路核心商圈黄金点位。店内集结MOLLY、SKULLPANDA、LABUBU等超百个热 门IP系列，近万款潮玩藏品构建起沉浸式"潮玩宇宙"，满足从资深藏家到入门爱好者的全维度需求。 空间设计上，入口处双立柱IP艺术装置将LABUBU等经典角色以"树洞探趣"造型错落嵌入，通过虚实结合的设计让静态装置具备互动张 力，成为南京路步行街上极具吸睛度的打卡点；二层打造的IP主题沉浸场景更实现"一步一景"，营造出层次丰富的体验感，开业首日即 成为社交平台热门话题。 常驻DIY体验场景 重构潮玩消费链路 相较于品牌其他门店仅节假日开放的临时体验，该店主推常驻DIY工作台，构建"收藏－创作－社交"的完整体验链路。消费者可在这里 自选配色、动手组装，亲手打造专属潮玩衍生品，实现情感价值与收藏价值的双重提升。该体验一经推出便引发广大消费者排队参与。 规 ...

Summary of Pop Mart International Limited Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Limited - **Ticker**: 9992.HK - **Rating**: Underperform - **Price Target**: 225.00 HKD - **Market Cap**: 293,836 million HKD - **Annual Dividend Yield**: 0.4% Key Industry Insights - **Customer Base**: Approximately 59 million reported members, with divided investor perspectives on sustainability - **Survey Sample**: ~850 respondents across China to analyze purchasing behavior and engagement Core Findings 1. **Customer Engagement**: - The customer base shows shallow engagement, with 39% of respondents starting purchases within the past year and only 12% having purchased for over two years, indicating minimal sustainable collector development [1][15][16] 2. **Buyer Segmentation**: - Casual and impulse buyers represent 68% of the customer base, while collectors account for only ~6% [2][18] - 60% of respondents own fewer than 5 items, and 80% own under 11 items, confirming that Pop Mart functions as occasional discretionary spending rather than routine purchases [2][18] 3. **Acquisition and Portfolio Risk**: - LABUBU drives 38% of customer acquisition, indicating a heavy reliance on a single character, which poses a risk if its popularity declines [3][19][78] - 29% of respondents never purchased other IPs, suggesting vulnerability to abandonment if LABUBU's appeal wanes [3][19] 4. **Spending Intentions**: - 61% of respondents expect to increase spending, but 26% plan to decrease, with 13% intending to stop purchasing entirely within 12 months [11][23][100] - Growth expectations are modest, with 47% projecting a 10-20% increase, indicating reliance on Pop Mart's execution of new releases [11][23][100] 5. **Scarcity Strategy**: - 18% abandon purchases when items are unavailable, while 45% substitute within the ecosystem, indicating a reliance on cross-IP substitution rather than developing multi-IP preferences [12][24][118] - The blind box format retains 65% positive sentiment, but many find it "fun but frustrating," suggesting a need for improvement in customer experience [12][24] Financial Metrics - **Reported EPS**: - F24A: 2.36 RMB - F25E: 7.91 RMB - F26E: 10.21 RMB - **EPS Growth**: - F24A: 191.4% - F25E: 235.1% - F26E: 29.1% [8] Purchase Behavior Insights 1. **Purchase Frequency**: - 21% of respondents have made only a single purchase, indicating low habitual purchasing [56][58] - Only 16.55% purchase monthly or more frequently, suggesting limited engagement [56][58] 2. **Annual Spending**: - 68.80% of customers spend less than ¥500 annually, translating to around 6-7 items yearly [61][65] - This aligns with low ownership levels and infrequent purchases, indicating shallow customer engagement [61][65] 3. **Influence of Channels**: - In-store browsing (64.18%) and social media content (54.96%) are the top drivers for purchasing decisions, highlighting the importance of product discovery [68][71] Future Considerations - **Churn Risk**: The data suggests Pop Mart operates with a "leaky bucket," requiring continuous new customer acquisition to offset attrition [100][101] - **Product Development**: Success hinges on the ability to innovate and maintain a strong IP pipeline to drive customer engagement and spending [106][107] Conclusion - Pop Mart's current customer base is characterized by shallow engagement and a heavy reliance on a single IP, LABUBU. The company faces significant challenges in converting casual buyers into committed collectors and must focus on product innovation and customer retention strategies to ensure sustainable growth.

Core Viewpoint - The company Copper Master is attempting a second listing in Hong Kong after its initial prospectus failed, capitalizing on the recovering sentiment in the Hong Kong consumer stock market [2][13]. Group 1: Business Performance - Copper Master has seen its revenue growth slow to single digits, with profits also declining, contrasting sharply with competitors like Pop Mart, which reported over 200% revenue growth and nearly 400% net profit growth [3][19]. - In the first half of 2025, Copper Master reported a main business revenue of 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of less than 10%, while net profit fell from 39.76 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 30.24 million yuan [19][22]. - The average transaction price for Copper Master has significantly decreased, with online prices dropping from 958 yuan to 556 yuan and offline prices from 1918 yuan to 659 yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [22]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Copper Master is often labeled as "the Pop Mart for middle-aged people," but this comparison is superficial as the two companies operate under fundamentally different business models [4][15]. - While Pop Mart focuses on emotional value and IP-driven products, Copper Master emphasizes tangible copper craftsmanship, leading to a lower gross margin of around 35% compared to Pop Mart's gross margin of approximately 70% [16][18]. - The target demographic for Copper Master includes middle-aged consumers who prioritize functional value and social status over emotional appeal, contrasting with the younger audience of Pop Mart [18][29]. Group 3: Growth Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in proving its growth potential, especially as it approaches its IPO, with concerns about its ability to meet investor expectations [21][25]. - Rising copper prices pose a threat to Copper Master's profit margins, as the company relies on raw material costs that are subject to market fluctuations [23][24]. - Copper Master is attempting to diversify its product offerings and target demographics by expanding into plastic and other materials, as well as collaborating with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [26][28]. Group 4: International Expansion - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the United States, to leverage the appeal of Eastern aesthetics and craftsmanship [32][33]. - However, establishing a presence in overseas markets requires significant time and investment in brand education and channel development, making immediate financial returns unlikely [33].

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming trend of trendy consumption, particularly focusing on the success of Pop Mart's LABUBU toys, which have seen global demand and significant price appreciation in the secondary market [2][3][4] - The nature of trendy consumption is characterized by unpredictable demand and short-lived popularity, necessitating a different operational logic compared to traditional brand marketing [2][11][23] Group 1: Trendy Consumption Characteristics - Trendy toys, or "Art Toys," originated in the late 1990s and are designed for adult collectors, distinguishing them from traditional children's toys [3][4] - Pop Mart transitioned from a general trendy goods retailer to a focused trendy toy company, leveraging industrialization to scale production and reach millions in sales [4][5] - The company has developed a closed-loop business model encompassing IP incubation, design, production, and sales, while continuously attracting influential artists [5][12] Group 2: Operational Strategies - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to convert artistic creativity into marketable products, while also adhering to the operational logic of trendy brands to manage demand uncertainty [12][16] - The company employs a flexible, responsive business model that allows for rapid adjustments based on market feedback and consumer preferences [16][17] - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive sales system, including physical stores, online platforms, and social media engagement, to maximize product visibility and consumer interaction [18] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for trendy products is highly unpredictable, often influenced by social trends and peer behavior, leading to a "winner-takes-all" market dynamic [8][23] - The company has successfully capitalized on the viral nature of trendy products, with significant sales spikes driven by social media exposure and celebrity endorsements [19][20] - Despite the potential for high sales, the transient nature of consumer interest necessitates continuous product innovation and brand refreshment to maintain relevance [22][24]

Core Insights - The release of "Zootopia 2" has generated significant excitement, reminiscent of the busy atmosphere during the Spring Festival box office period [1] - Collaborative marketing efforts with various brands have amplified the intellectual property (IP) effect, leading to increased consumer engagement and sales [1] Brand Collaborations - Bubble Mart's collaboration on the "Continuation Series" has seen its products sell out both online and in physical stores, with some items experiencing price increases on second-hand platforms [1] - The partnership between "Zootopia 2" and Luckin Coffee resulted in products selling out within three days of launch [1]

Core Insights - The opening of the Bubble Mart flagship store in Shanghai marks the brand's second location on Nanjing Road, known as "China's First Commercial Street," following the Hongyi Plaza store. This new store is larger and contributes to a unique "dual flagship store" strategy, injecting fresh vitality into the historic shopping district [2]. Group 1 - The new flagship store is located on Nanjing Road, which is recognized for its commercial significance [2]. - This store is the second for Bubble Mart in the area, following the opening of the Hongyi Plaza store [2]. - The flagship store is larger than the previous one, enhancing the brand's presence in a key retail location [2].

I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09992 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 500, ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox," as the rapid expansion of production capacity is transforming the once-scarce Labubu IP into a mass consumer product, which will diminish its fashion appeal and secondary market prices [1][2]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Pop Mart's production capacity has surged from an average of 10 million units per month in the first half of the year to 50 million units per month by the end of the year [1]. - This aggressive capacity expansion is seen as a risky gamble, trading scarcity for short-term revenue growth [1]. Financial Projections - Deutsche Bank estimates that this strategy will yield an adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 14.5 billion in 2025 [2]. - The bank maintains a "Hold" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 228, based on a projected P/E ratio of 18x to 20x for 2025 [1][11]. Market Sentiment and Pricing Trends - Since August 2025, the premium prices for Labubu and other popular IPs have significantly declined, with some hidden variants losing over 50% of their peak value [5]. - The secondary market has shown alarming signs, with regular versions of Labubu dropping below official retail prices on platforms like "Qian Dao" and "Xian Yu" [5]. Consumer Behavior and Product Reception - The popularity of Labubu has shifted from a "must-have" to a readily available product, leading to a decrease in consumer interest and a drop in search trends on Google since mid-2025 [7]. - Recent product launches, such as "Labubu Mini" and "The Monsters 1 a.m.," have not sold out as quickly as previous releases, indicating potential consumer fatigue [10]. Valuation Scenarios - Deutsche Bank presents two contrasting valuation scenarios for Pop Mart: - Bear Case: If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new IPs, net profit could drop to RMB 10.6 billion, leading to a P/E ratio of 23x [11]. - Bull Case: If growth continues and new IPs emerge, net profit could exceed RMB 23.1 billion, resulting in a P/E ratio of 13x [11].

Core Insights - The Chinese gift industry is undergoing a paradigm shift driven by the Z generation's purchasing decisions, with digital procurement penetration exceeding 11.5% and emotional value premium rising by 16% annually [2][3][11] Industry Trends - The industry has transitioned from a phase of scale growth to a critical period of "value reconstruction" and "efficiency revolution" [2] - The confidence index for the gift industry in 2025 has increased by 9 points year-on-year, reaching 80, indicating a positive outlook [2] - There is a significant divergence in confidence among different segments, with cross-category and brand channel merchants scoring 86, while processing and OEM factories score only 75 [2] Key Contradictions - Demand upgrade vs. budget contraction: Z generation employees demand personalized and high-quality gifts, while corporate welfare budgets are shrinking [2] - Digital efficiency vs. compliance risk: 48% of companies are increasing digital procurement investments, but this leads to heightened compliance and risk management challenges [2] - Homogeneous competition vs. differentiated breakthroughs: Standard products face declining profit margins, while demand for cultural and health-related gifts is growing [2] Strategic Responses - Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement: 46% of companies prioritize improving quality-price ratios, leveraging digital tools to streamline procurement processes [2][4] - Compliance risk management: 35% of companies focus on compliance management, with third-party inspection mechanisms becoming more prevalent [2][4] Market Dynamics - The procurement landscape is becoming younger, with 90% of decision-makers being under 34 years old, leading to a shift in purchasing logic [3][11] - Small and medium-sized private enterprises account for over 70% of the market share, indicating a shift in purchasing power [3] Product and Service Innovations - The gift industry is moving towards professional competition, with a focus on emotional value and brand expression [11] - Successful case studies highlight the importance of integrating cultural elements and innovative marketing strategies to enhance product appeal [7][10] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue evolving towards high-quality development, with a focus on emotional value and compliance-driven procurement practices [11] - Companies that can adapt to changing consumer demands, embrace digital transformation, and maintain compliance will emerge as industry leaders [11]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the IP collectibles market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$37.7 billion as of November 27, 2025 Key Points 2026 Outlook - **Price Target**: Adjusted from HK$382.00 to HK$325.00, reflecting market conditions and growth expectations [1] - **Sales Forecast**: Expected total sales of Rmb48 billion in 2026, representing a 26% year-over-year growth [11] - **Growth Drivers**: Sustained momentum anticipated from China and APAC regions, supported by strategic marketing and store openings in the US [1][2] Performance Metrics - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Labubu sales projected at Rmb15.5 billion in 2025, with growth moderating to 13% in 2026 [3][17] - Non-Labubu IPs expected to contribute Rmb22.4 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 35% in 2026 [11][13] - **Net Profit Margin**: Expected to remain high, around 32% in 2026, supported by lower advertising and promotional expenses [4][46] Market Dynamics - **US Market Growth**: Forecasted sales growth of 34% in 2026, with a long-term view that the US market could surpass China due to its size and demand for IP collectibles [22][23] - **Offline Expansion**: Emphasis on increasing offline presence, which currently accounts for only 35% of US revenue, compared to 60% in the broader toy and hobby category [25][30] Strategic Initiatives - **Product Launches**: Management plans to increase product launches in 2026, including new figurine collections and plush series [20][21] - **Localized Marketing**: Enhanced marketing efforts to strengthen Labubu's global presence through localized designs and collaborations [31][32] Financial Adjustments - **P/E Ratio**: Target P/E reduced from 32x to 26x for 2026, reflecting unfavorable market conditions and a focus on near-term growth [5][59] - **Sales Volatility**: Increased sales volatility expected in the short term due to market dynamics and consumer behavior shifts [5][59] Regional Insights - **Greater China**: Sales estimated at Rmb21 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 22% in 2026 [38] - **APAC Opportunities**: Strong growth potential in Japan and Korea, leveraging cultural similarities and consumer preferences [42][43] Risks and Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: Current bearish sentiment may overlook the long-term growth potential driven by a recurring customer base [2][3] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Management is exploring production options in Latin America to shorten supply chains and improve US operations [35] Conclusion - Pop Mart is positioned for sustained growth in the IP collectibles market, with strategic initiatives aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing brand presence both domestically and internationally. The company’s focus on offline expansion and localized marketing efforts is expected to drive future sales growth, despite current market volatility and adjustments in financial projections.