格隆汇2月10日｜延续近期涨势，泡泡玛特(9992.HK)今日盘中再度涨近5%至270港元，股价创去年10月 以来新高，且较今年1月19日的最低价(174.3港元)反弹55%。 公司日前公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中，THE MONSTERS全品类产品全 球销售超1亿只。 华西证券近日发布研报称，近期公司多款新品在国内和海外取得亮眼表现，该行预计公司业绩有望迎来 新年开门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值；维持"买入"评级。 摩根士丹利发表研报指，泡泡玛特旗下新IP产品Twinkle Twinkle和Skullpanda的强大受欢迎程度，将持 续推动其IP产品运转。大摩认为泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品 Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事 会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品 争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。大摩予泡泡玛特目标价325港元，评 级"增持"，认为随着中国及海外市场销售动能持续，加上产品线 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's revenue increased by over 200% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing nearly fourfold [2][3] - The revenue growth forecast for Q3 2025 is close to 250%, with overseas market growth nearing four times [2][3] - Despite strong financial performance, the stock price fell nearly 50% from its peak in August 2025 to early 2026, indicating a significant divergence from fundamentals [2][3] Market Sentiment and Concerns - There is a shift in sentiment among overseas hedge funds, with short positions increasing from 1% to 9% since late August 2025, while southbound capital holdings rose from 13% to 20% [2][3] - Market concerns include the potential peak of IP popularity, slowing short-term growth, valuation discounts, and the impact of expanded supply on secondary market prices, which could affect core fan demand [2][5] Strategic Responses - Pop Mart is diversifying its IP portfolio (e.g., Dimoo, SP) and product forms (e.g., plush toys, electronic products) to address market concerns [2][6] - The success of the Lazhu Bu IP has not only boosted short-term performance but also attracted new user demographics, breaking the perception that trendy toys are limited to PVC figures [2][11] Global Expansion Strategy - The company emphasizes local cultural integration in its global market expansion, successfully launching localized IPs like Cray Baby in Thailand and Star People in North America [4][12] - Pop Mart aims for a sales target of 50 billion RMB in 2026, with equal contributions from domestic and international markets, indicating significant growth potential [4][16] Innovation in IP and Product Development - Pop Mart has evolved from relying on a single IP (Molly) to a diverse portfolio, including multiple high-revenue IPs and innovative product forms [6][10] - Recent product innovations include the electronic wooden fish and Star People, which have been well-received and are expected to drive future growth [17] Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for Pop Mart is optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by the development of local and subcultural symbols [13][16] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its established IP incubation mechanisms and expand its global footprint through localized strategies and physical store openings [23] Specific IP Developments - The Lazhu Bu IP has undergone significant evolution, adapting to market demands and maintaining its appeal through various iterations [18][19] - The Star People IP has shown strong potential, with a rapid iteration cycle and effective marketing strategies leading to substantial revenue growth [21][22] Additional Important Insights - The market's perception of the sustainability of IP popularity and the potential for a sharp decline in demand remains a critical concern [5] - Pop Mart's ability to manage the lifecycle of its IPs effectively, including revitalizing older IPs, has proven successful in maintaining market value [14][15]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Products, specifically in the collectibles and IP (Intellectual Property) sector Key Points and Arguments Stock Performance and Buybacks - Pop Mart's stock has rebounded by **38%** since its low on January 16, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) has decreased by **1%** [2] - The company's share buyback program is seen as a crucial catalyst, boosting investor confidence amid concerns about 2026 sales performance [2][6] - Historical buybacks in 2022-23 have set a precedent, suggesting that the current buyback will mitigate downside risks even if sales from the US or Labubu underperform [2] Product Performance and Market Sentiment - New products from the Twinkle Twinkle and Skullpanda lines are gaining traction, with Skullpanda estimated to be the **2 IP** for Pop Mart in the US [3] - The US market is currently a focal point for Pop Mart, and products tailored for this market are expected to significantly influence market sentiment [3] Future Growth and Market Positioning - Anticipated surprises in product designs are expected to enhance Pop Mart's market presence, supported by collaborations with industry leaders like Moynat and Sony Pictures [4] - The company is positioned for potential quarter-over-quarter growth, with a notable bifurcation in investor positions, indicating a high level of short interest [5] Sales Outlook and Market Dynamics - There is an increasing probability of decent sales growth in 4Q25 and 1Q26, despite previous expectations of flat or declining sales [12] - The company’s strong momentum in China and sequential growth in overseas markets are critical for future performance [12] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include uncertainties related to new product launches, the ability to maintain appealing designs, and potential moderation in overseas growth [18][19][20] - Pricing management is crucial as Pop Mart has raised average selling prices (ASPs) in the US market, which could alienate core customers if not managed carefully [21] - The presence of counterfeit products poses a risk to the brand's IP value, which has historically affected other brands [22] Financial Projections - Revenue projections show significant growth, with estimates of **Rmb 37,890 million** for 2025 and **Rmb 47,884 million** for 2026 [8] - Adjusted net income is expected to reach **Rmb 12,717 million** in 2025 and **Rmb 15,424 million** in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [8] Valuation and Price Target - The price target for Pop Mart is set at **HK$ 325.00**, representing a **34%** upside from the current price of **HK$ 242.40** [8][24] - The valuation is based on a target P/E of **26x** for 2026, aligning with anticipated sales and earnings growth [24] Investment Thesis - Pop Mart is viewed as a potential leader in the global consumer brand space, leveraging its IP-product flywheel and direct-to-consumer model for expansion [29] - New initiatives like Pop Land and POPOP are expected to contribute significantly to revenue and IP value in the long run [30] Additional Insights - The company is experiencing a favorable sector rotation, with increased fund flow into consumer stocks, which may enhance buying interest [14] - The consensus rating distribution shows **91%** of analysts rating the stock as overweight, indicating strong market confidence [32] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Pop Mart's current performance, future outlook, and associated risks.

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart aims to achieve global sales of over 400 million units across all IP and product categories by 2025, with the "THE MONSTERS" category expected to exceed 100 million units [1] Group 1: 2025 Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing a typical "single super IP + category breakthrough" growth model, with revenue expected to expand nearly threefold year-on-year, driven primarily by the global popularity of Labubu and significant monetization efficiency from plush toys [1] - HSBC's analyst Lina Yan predicts that while the hyper-growth from Labubu will fade, the platform's capabilities will persist, marking 2026 as a year for "re-establishing the baseline" [1] - UBS believes that the data alleviates market concerns regarding reliance on a single hit product, with new IP Twinkle showing strong initial performance in early 2026, providing a window for continued growth [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - HSBC has lowered its revenue and profit growth forecasts for 2026, citing a decline in member repurchase intensity and growth rate, while emphasizing that valuations have already accounted for IP lifecycle risks [2] - The company’s revenue growth in 2025 is expected to be significantly driven by repeat member purchases, with ARPU from repeat members contributing nearly half of the revenue growth in mainland China [3] Group 3: 2026 Growth Framework - HSBC anticipates that the normalization of ARPU for repeat members will shift growth from explosive to a more standard retail expansion trajectory, leading to a reduction in revenue growth forecast from 30.6% to 23.7% for 2026 [4] - The expected revenue growth for 2026 in mainland China is approximately 13.0%, while overseas growth is projected at around 35.7%, with a focus on expanding retail POS locations [4] Group 4: Execution Risks and Market Dynamics - The risks identified are primarily execution-related, including supply chain issues, price inflation from scalpers, and competition, which could impact the brand and sales [5] - HSBC notes that the market has already begun to price in the lifecycle risks associated with Labubu, with a significant drop in forward PE ratios despite a rise in forward EPS [6] Group 5: New IP and Market Validation - The success of new IPs like Twinkle and their interaction with overseas markets will be critical for sustaining growth post-Labubu, with initial sales figures indicating strong performance [6][7] - Both HSBC and UBS view upcoming quarterly sales data as crucial for validating market performance, particularly in the U.S., and emphasize the importance of sustainable membership management and product expansion [7]

2月10日消息，泡泡玛特再涨近5%，股价触及270港元，月内已累升逾20%。截至发文，泡泡玛特报价 268.6港元，成交额逾32亿港元。 | 09992 泡泡玛特 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 268.600 ↑ +11.400 +4.43% | | 交易中 02/10 11:14 | | * | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 270.000 | 开盘价 263.400 | 成交量 1229.46万 | | 最低价 257.200 | 昨收价 257.200 | 成交额 32.53亿 | | 平均价 264.595 | 市盈率TIM 48.47 | 总市值 3603.38亿 (1) | | 振 幅 4.98% | 市盈率(静) 106.76 | 总股本 13.42亿 | | 换手率 0.92% | 市净率 23.167 | 流通值 3603.38亿 | | 52周景高 339,800 | 委 比 -77.16% | 流通股 13.42亿 | | 52周最低 100.712 | 量 比 2.31 | 每 手 200股 | | 历史最高 339.800 | 股息TTM 0.889 | ...

华西证券（002926）发布研报称，2月6日，2026年泡泡玛特"Ride the Wave踏浪"主题年会在北京国家网 球中心钻石球场举办。年会回顾了2025年的关键突破与高光时刻，也为即将启程的2026年勾勒出更清晰 的方向与想象空间。该行认为，近期公司多款新品在国内和海外取得亮眼表现，该行预计公司业绩有望 迎来新年开门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值。 消息面上，2月9日，泡泡玛特发布公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中，THE MONSTERS全品类产品全球销售超1亿只。大摩认为，泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜， 而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO 加入公司董事会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将 推出的新产品争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。 泡泡玛特(09992)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.2%，报268港元，成交额24.45亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，泡泡玛特(09992)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.2%，报268港元，成交额24.45亿港 元。 华西证券发布研报称，2月6日，2026年泡泡玛特"Ride the Wave踏浪"主题年会在北京国家网球中心钻石 球场举办。年会回顾了2025年的关键突破与高光时刻，也为即将启程的2026年勾勒出更清晰的方向与想 象空间。该行认为，近期公司多款新品在国内和海外取得亮眼表现，该行预计公司业绩有望迎来新年开 门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值。 消息面上，2月9日，泡泡玛特发布公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中，THE MONSTERS全品类产品全球销售超1亿只。大摩认为，泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜， 而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO 加入公司董事会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将 推出的新产品争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Pop Mart (9992.HK), indicating a favorable outlook for the company's growth and market position [4]. Core Insights - The market perception of Pop Mart is evolving from a "blind box company" to a "global IP full industry chain group," reflecting a significant transformation in its business model and market strategy [4]. - The report addresses key concerns regarding the extension of IP lifecycle, breakthrough in the North American market, and the transition of valuation systems [4]. Summary by Sections Q1: Sustainability of Labubu's Growth - Labubu's strong growth is deemed sustainable due to proactive product rhythm adjustments, supply chain optimization, and the promotion of an IP family strategy, transitioning from a phenomenon to a core IP [5]. - Healthy growth is characterized by a decline in secondary market prices, which is seen as a positive clearing rather than a collapse, laying the foundation for long-term growth [5]. Q2: Capability of Mass Producing "Medium IP" - The company has established an industrialized and replicable IP incubation system, enabling it to mass-produce medium-sized IPs [6]. - The new IP, represented by "Twinkle Twinkle," achieved revenue of 390 million yuan in the first half of 2025, complementing Labubu and ensuring continuous product iteration [6]. Q3: Growth Potential in North America - The North American market presents significant growth potential, driven by strategic store expansion and localized operations [7]. - Pop Mart plans to open approximately 270-550 stores in North America, with a focus on a multi-store network to enhance regional penetration [7]. Q4: Market Penetration in Europe - The European market is rapidly penetrating, with revenue reaching 478 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 729% [8]. - The strategy emphasizes "cultural output" by collaborating with art landmarks and enhancing brand tone through localized marketing [8]. Q5: Progress in New Business Layouts - New business initiatives like POP BAKERY and POPOP are designed to extend consumption scenarios around IP, creating high-frequency consumption opportunities [9]. - POP BAKERY offers themed desserts priced between 39-199 yuan, while POPOP features luxury jewelry priced from 249-2699 yuan, enhancing customer value [9]. Q6: Performance Growth Outlook for 2026 - The company anticipates steady growth in 2026, with total revenue projected to reach 51 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 18 billion yuan, driven by overseas market expansion and domestic store renewal strategies [10].

动作流畅有力，员工们连连称师。 年会上还总结了泡泡玛特过去一年的年度数据，全球员工伙伴超1万人，注册会员超1亿人，LABUBU 全年销量超1亿只，全品类全IP产品销量超4亿只，业务覆盖100+国家和地区，全球门店超700家。（来 源：大象新闻编辑：尚骏翼） 责任编辑：张恒星 2月6日，泡泡玛特2026年年会变身巨星派对，多位明星现身与泡泡玛特创始人王宁同台互动，引发热 议。 创始人王宁亲自在年会舞台表演了一段完整的咏春拳。 动作流畅有力，员工们连连称师。 年会上还总结了泡泡玛特过去一年的年度数据，全球员工伙伴超1万人，注册会员超1亿人，LABUBU 全年销量超1亿只，全品类全IP产品销量超4亿只，业务覆盖100+国家和地区，全球门店超700家。（来 源：大象新闻编辑：尚骏翼） 责任编辑：张恒星 2月6日，泡泡玛特2026年年会变身巨星派对，多位明星现身与泡泡玛特创始人王宁同台互动，引发热 议。 创始人王宁亲自在年会舞台表演了一段完整的咏春拳。 ...

智通财经APP讯，泡泡玛特(09992)发布公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中， THE MONSTERS全品类产品全球销售超1亿只。 ...