以下文章来源于泽平宏观商学 ，作者泽平宏观商学 2月27日 北京 国内头部智驾科技企业 人形机器人 年研学安 型成 11月4日-11日 洛杉矶、拉斯维加斯、旧金山 泽平宏观商学 . 前沿科技企业实战研学 读万卷书行万里路 2025 年 12 月 用心打造最有品质的实战研学。读万卷书，行万里路。把教室搬到世界上最优秀的企业， 请最优秀的企业家和科学家讲课。顺势而为，把握机遇。正心正念，坚持做长期正确的 事！ 我们期待与更多的企业家朋友们携手同行，共赴 2026 实战研学之旅！ 泽 ZEP 平 INGM 宏 ACR 观 O RE 商 SEAR 学 CH CES、英伟达、特斯拉 1-6月日程安排 · "走进中国科创心脏 谷歌、罗宾汉、playground 斯坦福大学、伯克利大学 3月27日-28日 苏州 追觅科技、魔法原子、灵猴机器人 闭门投研会-2026 Al 的中国力量(一) 3月29日 上海 长三角校友会 4月20日-21日 香港 2026 香港 Web3 嘉年华 复星财富、HashKey、港交所 5月22日-23日 1151 11:47:50 深圳 华为、新凯来、江波龙、莫界科技 闭门投研会—2026 Al ...

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally, while impressive, is at risk due to underlying issues related to earnings quality rather than just external factors like tariffs and trade policies [1][4][11]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose by 16% last year, marking its third consecutive year of gains of at least 16%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also saw significant increases [2]. - The market is currently experiencing high valuations, with the Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio fluctuating between 39 and 41, making it the second-priciest market in history [14]. Impact of Tariffs - President Trump's tariffs have led to a 10.5% decline in the S&P 500 over two days following their announcement, marking one of the steepest declines since 1950 [6]. - The tariffs have had a modest inflationary impact, increasing production costs for certain businesses and leading to higher consumer prices [10]. Earnings Quality Concerns - Earnings quality is a significant issue, with many companies relying on non-operational income sources to boost their earnings figures [15][22]. - Tesla's earnings are heavily influenced by regulatory credits and interest income, which accounted for 63% of its pre-tax income in 2025 [18]. - Apple has utilized a substantial share buyback program to enhance its earnings per share (EPS), masking slower sales and profit growth [20][21]. Conclusion - The reliance on non-innovative income sources among leading companies raises concerns about the sustainability of their earnings, which could pose risks to investors in a historically expensive market [22].

ARKK ETF Performance - ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has dropped 9.58% year-to-date as of early February 2026, following a strong 35.49% return in 2025 that outperformed the S&P 500 [1] - The decline is attributed to weaknesses in the fund's largest holdings and a broader market repricing of growth stocks [1] Tesla's Impact - Tesla remains the largest position in ARKK at 11.12%, with the stock down 7.18% year-to-date, closing at $417.44 [1] - Tesla reported Q4 2025 earnings of $0.50, beating estimates but showing a 60.6% year-over-year decline in earnings growth, with revenue falling 3.1% year-over-year to $94.83 billion [1] - Tesla dropped out of China's top 10 NEV makers in January 2026, marking its lowest monthly sales since November 2022 [1] Coinbase's Performance - Coinbase, representing 3.55% of ARKK, has seen a significant decline of 27.34% year-to-date, with shares trading at $164.32, down from $226.14 at year-end [1] - The decline is attributed to both the overall weakness in the crypto market and a Q4 earnings miss [1] - Cathie Wood has been actively buying Coinbase shares, adding $26.1 million in December 2025 [1] Other Holdings - Palantir, a 3.19% position in ARKK, reported Q4 2025 earnings of $0.25, beating estimates, but the stock is down 26.07% year-to-date [1] - Shopify, representing 4.31% of ARKK, is down 29.99% year-to-date but reported strong Q4 results with revenue of $11.56 billion, up 30.6% year-over-year [1] Strategic Changes - Cathie Wood is reshaping ARKK's portfolio, with healthcare now the largest sector allocation at 22.8%, surpassing Information Technology at 20.0% [2] - The fund's top 10 holdings account for 52.4% of assets, indicating a high concentration that amplifies both gains and losses [2] - ARKK's expense ratio is 0.75%, which is high compared to passive alternatives, but Wood's active management has historically delivered differentiated returns [2]

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences across the company [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, representing a major shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the multi-trillion-dollar potential of AI, suggesting a broad consensus on its economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is believed to be redefining work, learning, and creativity, attracting significant interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that may play a crucial role in the AI revolution, with its technology posing a threat to competitors [4] - Prominent figures in technology and investment, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a major technological advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8] Market Trends - The AI ecosystem is expected to reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate globally, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The investment landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with major tech companies like Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft being closely watched, while a smaller company is suggested to hold greater potential [6]

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard. Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences. At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000 ...

对此，马斯克回应称："它将在 2027 年开始改变现状，到 2028 年影响将显而易见，而到 2029 年将产生巨大的影响。" 本月早些时候，特斯拉第三代人形机器人官宣 2026 年亮相：支持观察人类行为学习新技能，预计年产百万台。目前特斯拉正在工厂及特斯拉办公场所测试 各类使用场景，机器人规模化生产后，预计每台成本将控制在 2 万美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 13.8 万元人民币）以内。 IT之家 2 月 15 日消息，今日，方舟基金创始人凯茜 · 伍德在社交平台上发帖称："根据 ARKInvest 的研究，开发人形机器人要比开发机器人出租车复杂 20 万倍。鉴于埃隆 · 马斯克秉持的第一原则和坚定决心，我们预测特斯拉的擎天柱机器人将在 2028/2029 年开始改变工厂生活，进而改变家庭生活。" 这款人形机器人此前展示过功夫、捡鸡蛋，以及非常慢地递送爆米花。马斯克透露，"Optimus 可能成为史上 最重要的产品，我认为它非常有潜力。" ...

Group 1 - Tesla Inc. is actively recruiting AI chip designers in South Korea to enhance its AI chip production capabilities, which are essential for its electric vehicles and technological advancements [1][2] - The recruitment drive aims to develop AI chip architecture that will achieve the highest production volume globally in the future [2] - The company is looking for talented individuals for the position of AI Chip Design Engineer and has provided an application process for interested candidates [3] Group 2 - This recruitment is part of Tesla's broader strategy to expand its custom chip production capabilities, which includes hiring silicon module process engineers in locations like Austin and Palo Alto [4] - Tesla has committed to investing approximately $2 billion into xAI as part of a Series E funding round, indicating its strong focus on AI technology [4]

Core Insights - Tesla's core electric vehicle (EV) business is facing stagnation, prompting the company to accelerate the development of various side projects [1][4] - The company plans to diversify its offerings by adding solar panels, advancing robotaxi technology, and introducing humanoid robots priced between $20,000 and $30,000 by the end of 2027 [2][3] Electric Vehicle Business Challenges - Tesla's average per-vehicle production costs have decreased, but this has not restored the profit margins seen before the EV price wars that began in early 2023 [5] - The net profit per vehicle has dropped to just over $4,000 as of the end of last year, down from more than $10,000 in 2022 [6] - Competitors like BYD, Volkswagen, and General Motors have captured the growth in the EV market, leaving Tesla with stagnant sales [8] Market Position and Brand Perception - Tesla, once the leading brand in the EV market, is losing its appeal, which is concerning as over 70% of its revenue still comes from battery-powered vehicles [9] - The company is exploring new markets, including robotics and solar energy, but faces significant competition from other players in these sectors [14] Future Prospects and Risks - The potential for solar energy and autonomous taxis is significant, with projections indicating a $190 billion market for robotaxis by 2034 [11] - However, there are concerns about Elon Musk's history of overpromising on timelines, which could affect the development of new technologies [15] - Tesla's stock is currently priced at over 200 times the expected earnings per share of $2.06, indicating that the market is expecting high growth that may not materialize [16][20] Conclusion - Tesla appears to be shifting focus from its core EV business to explore new opportunities, which may indicate underlying challenges in its primary revenue stream [19]

1.【特斯拉美国停止一次性购买FSD选项】根据此前马斯克的公开信息，2月14日后，特斯拉将在美 国正式停止一次性购买FSD（完全自动驾驶）功能的选项，转而采用订阅模式。这意味着目前8000 美元的预付购买选项（可在下单时或提车后选择）将永久取消。未来，FSD将仅可通过订阅方式使 用，每月费用为99美元，或每年费用为999美元。在澳大利亚和新西兰，特斯拉宣布将于2026年3月 31日起停止提供FSD的一次性购买服务。对中国车主来说，特斯拉提供两种驾驶辅助服务，未和美国 FSD政策保持一致，目前服务包仍然为32000元的增强辅助驾驶以及64000元的智能辅助驾驶，仍然 可以进行一次性买断，但相关FSD服务在中国使用有限，更像是期货产品。（新浪财经） 2.【崔东树：乘用车1月厂家销量增速相对较好，新能源车走势较平稳】崔东树发文称，在国家促销 费政策推动下汽车市场保持强势增长，2025年全国汽车市场总体走势较强，卡车市场和客车市场回 暖明显。对比2025年政策力度，今年政策收缩明显，导致今年1月乘用车零售环比下降，但因出口增 量，1月厂家销量增速相对较好。1月新能源车走势较平稳，主要是汽车出口市场持续走强，但行业压 ...

当地时间2月11日，美国商务部突然拍板对中国石墨加征超160%双反关税，关税大棒挥得虎虎生风。 可隔天特朗普就笑眯眯喊话，超期待4月访华，还直言和中国关系"非常好"。 美国这波操作，把"心口不一"玩出了新高度，左手打拳右手递糖的戏码，看懵了全世界。 这场加税闹剧的细节，说出来都让人觉得离谱。 据观察者网消息，美国商务部给中国石墨定的"惩罚套餐"分了三六九等：对贝特瑞、凯金新能源等特定企业征93.5%反倾销税，其他中国出口商直接涨到 102.72%，再叠加66.82%-66.86%的反补贴税，综合税率直接突破160%。 联盟里的Novonix公司CEO还大言不惭说这是"恢复公平竞争"，殊不知美国本土的石墨产业，连给新能源产业提鞋的资格都没有，美国地质调查局明确表 示，美国对天然石墨的进口依存度是100%，高纯球形石墨这种锂电池核心材料，美国实验室只能做样品，根本没法规模化量产。 美国嘴上喊着"和中国脱钩"，身体却诚实得很。 数据摆在这里：美国59%的天然石墨、68%的人造石墨都从中国进口，2024年进口的近18万吨石墨产品中，三分之二贴着中国标签。 美方也不是没想过硬刚，此前曾多次推迟对石墨加税，原因很简单，他 ...