行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 72% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 机械设备 沪深300 机械设备 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 马斯克表示2026年底或2027年向公众出售人形机器 人，魔法原子机器人将首秀春晚 ——行业周报 相关研究报告 《聚氨酯 TPU 结构件：防护减震理想 选择，人形机器人量产落地的"安全 垫"—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《新剑传动启动上市辅导，特斯拉供 应链核心资产有望迎来价值重估 — 行业周报》-2026.1.11 《马斯克宏图的下一个篇章：脑机接 口，2026 年将启动大规模量产，有望 解锁人机协同终极形态—行业周报》 -2026.1.4 | 孟鹏飞（分析师） | 黄雄（分析师） | | --- | --- | | mengpengfei@kysec.cn | huangxiong@kysec.cn | 证书编号：S0790522060001 证书编号：S0790525070005 人形机器人板块：结构性走强，上行趋势明晰 近期人形机器人板块指数呈震荡向上走势，量能温和放大 ...

一、流动性充裕的环境下，后续还有哪些催化值得期待？ 我们在《春季行情仍会有新高》中强调，此次降温影响的更多是行情的节奏、结构而非整体趋势，支撑 春季行情向上的核心逻辑并未发生任何变化，本轮春季行情仍在半途。本周来看，虽然行情节奏趋缓， 但向上趋势仍在延续，并且结构上赚钱效应正在朝着更广的范围扩散。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 流动性充裕是支撑本轮春季行情向上的核心驱动力，背后来源于险资"开门红"支撑新增保费入市、居民 存款集中到期与人民币升值吸引的境外资金回流。 一方面，根据渠道数据，今年险资"开门红"表现亮眼，支撑大量新增保费入市。根据险企观察公众号披 露的渠道数据，截至1月中旬，头部公司个险保费增速普遍超30%，多家公司个险期交保费已突破百亿 关口，银保渠道甚至出现翻倍增长。新增保费30%需要入市的硬性配置需求，为市场带来大量增量资 金。 另一方面，根据居民定期存款到期期限推算，今年上半年将是居民存款集中到期的高峰，配合春季风险 偏好抬升，一季度有望是居民增配权益资产的重要窗口。2022年以来居民定期存款开始抬升，至2023年 年中到达阶段性高 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during its upcoming meeting on January 27-28, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining the current rate [1][2] - Economists predict that the Fed will keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, with 58% forecasting no changes in the first quarter [3] - Political factors and internal disagreements among Fed policymakers may influence future rate decisions, with potential challenges in selecting the next Fed chair [4] Group 2: Earnings Reports - A significant portion of S&P 500 companies, including major tech firms like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, will report earnings next week, focusing on the impact of AI investments [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts Apple's Q1 FY2026 revenue to reach $137.4 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by iPhone sales [5] - Tesla's upcoming earnings report will shift investor focus towards advancements in AI technologies rather than traditional financial metrics, with Morgan Stanley predicting a 2.5% year-over-year decline in delivery expectations for 2026 [6]

美股即将迎来"超级风暴周"。 汇丰银行经济学家在一份报告中表示，预计美联储主席鲍威尔将强调，未来的利率调整将取决于经济数 据的演变。 据路透社对100位经济学家进行的调查，所有受访者均预计美联储将在1月27日至28日的会议上将基准利 率维持在3.50%—3.75%的区间。更为关键的是，约58%的受访经济学家预测整个第一季度利率都将保持 不变，这一预期较上月发生了显著转变，当时多数人曾预计3月至少会有一次降息。 LSEG StarMine计算显示，野村证券的高级美国经济学家Jeremy Schwartz是去年预测最准确的分析师之 一。他表示，虽然表面上的经济前景暗示美联储应保持观望，甚至可能在今年晚些时候或明年将加息重 新摆上桌面，但在现实操作中，美联储可能会在鲍威尔5月任期结束前一直"按兵不动"。 Jeremy Schwartz预计，新的美联储领导层上任后，可能会在今年晚些时候设法推动另外50个基点的降 息。 首先，美联储将在下周（1月27日至28日）召开议息会议，并将于下周四（1月29日）公布利率决议。目 前市场普遍预期美联储将在此次会议上暂停降息。据CME"美联储观察"，截至目前，美联储1月降息25 个基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of Tesla is heavily reliant on its robotaxi rollout, which is a pivotal year for the autonomous taxi sector [1] Group 1: Robotaxi Rollout - Tesla's robotaxi ambitions present significant earnings potential, but there is ongoing debate regarding growth and rollout timing [1] - Elon Musk's previous estimates for the rollout have not materialized as expected, leading to criticism from investors [3] - As of January 2026, Tesla's robotaxis are operating with safety monitors in Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area [5] Group 2: Investor Expectations - Tesla's interaction with the investment community is unique, with a focus on "underpromise and overdeliver" [2] - Missed expectations, such as those related to the robotaxi rollout, are often used against the company by investors [4][8] - Investors are divided, with some viewing Tesla as behind in the rollout and lacking necessary regulatory approvals [8] Group 3: Cybercab Production - Tesla plans to ramp up production of its dedicated robotaxi, Cybercab, with mass production expected to begin in April [6] - Musk indicated that the rate of regulatory approvals will likely align closely with Cybercab production, though initial production may be slow [7] Group 4: Market Impact - Tesla aims to fundamentally change the mobility market, with Cybercabs expected to offer significantly lower costs compared to traditional taxis [10] - Delays in milestones do not diminish the potential for substantial recurring income from ride-hail revenue [10][11] - Investors are willing to overlook delays, viewing Tesla as a high-risk/high-reward investment opportunity [11]

2025年开年，AI芯片领域就传出两则重磅的消息： 埃隆·马斯克在社交平台确认特斯拉(TSLA.US)重启Dojo 3超级计算机项目，其表示特斯拉将成为全球最 大的AI芯片厂商; 同为AI芯片行业的重要参与者Cerebras Systems则与OpenAI则与敲定了一份价值超百亿美元、承诺交付 750兆瓦算力的多年采购协议，该产能将在2028年前分批投入使用。 一个是自研训练芯片的"死而复生"，一个是晶圆级系统的商业突破——两条迥异新闻背后，让"大芯 片"这一曾被视为异类的技术路线再次站回了聚光灯下。 两种大芯片的分野 在AI芯片的演进史上，大芯片从来不是一个精确的技术术语，而更像是对两种截然不同设计的概括。 马斯克在社交平台透露，AI5芯片设计状况良好，特斯拉将重启Dojo 3的工作，其将采用AI6或AI7芯 片，目标不再是训练地球上的自动驾驶模型，它将专注于"太空人工智能计算"。 一种是以Cerebras为代表的晶圆级单片集成，另一种则是特斯拉Dojo这类介于单芯片与GPU集群之间 的"晶圆级系统"。前者追求大道至简，用一整片300毫米晶圆构建单一处理器，后者则走中间路线，通 过先进封装将多个预测试芯片集 ...

行 华福证券 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 25 日 业 研 究 机械设备 马斯克力推 Optimus，2027 年底拟向公众开售 行 业 定 特斯拉 CEO 马斯克将发展重心投向 Optimus 人形机器人，旨在推 动公司转型为估值 25 万亿美元的机器人企业，该业务价值预计将远超 现有汽车业务。这一战略布局也是其千亿薪资方案的核心，彰显了对 机器人赛道未来潜力的坚定信心。 定下宏大愿景，人形机器人发展蓝图清晰 期 报 告 马斯克公开表示，2027 年底将开始向公众销售 Optimus 人形机器 人，同时大胆预言 2026 年将实现通用人工智能，未来三年内该类 AI 机器人可能在外科手术等领域超越人类专家，2040 年全球机器人数量 或将达到 100 亿台甚至更多。特斯拉已筹备扩建得克萨斯超级工厂， 规划建设人形机器人专用量产设施，目标实现年产能 1000 万台，且已 在机器人动态平衡、灵巧手升级等技术方面取得突破。 人形机器人造福全人类，未来有望像汽车般普及 中国机器人网表示，目前来看，发展足够智能的人形机器人把人 类社会的重复性体力劳动接管过去将会是一个造福全人类的科技大方 向。据高工移动机器人，英 ...

特斯拉中国方面也表示暂无相关进展可披露。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 来源：金综科技 近日，据外媒报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆・马斯克在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上透露，需驾驶员监督的FSD （Full Self-Driving）系统预计最快下个月在欧洲获批，中国可能处于相近时间段。 这一表述引发"监督版FSD下月入华"的市场猜测，但可靠知情人士明确回应，该消息不实。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent focus on the Davos Forum and highlights various geopolitical events, including tensions between the U.S. and Canada regarding trade agreements with China [2][6][7] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney has called for citizens to "buy local" in response to external threats, emphasizing self-reliance and support for Canadian products [7] - The Netherlands' largest pension fund, ABP, has significantly reduced its holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds by nearly 40% over a six-month period, while increasing its holdings in German bonds [7] Group 2 - The article reports on the potential new chair of the Federal Reserve, Rick Rieder from BlackRock, who has overtaken Kevin Walsh in the nomination race, with a probability of 55% for Rieder [9][12] - President Trump has indicated he has a preferred candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position but has not disclosed further details, with the announcement expected soon [11][12] - Rieder's lack of prior experience at the Federal Reserve is seen as an advantage, as he is perceived to be less constrained by the institution's internal dynamics [16] Group 3 - Elon Musk announced at the Davos Forum that the Optimus robot will be commercially available by the end of 2027, with a projected price of $20,000 [17][18] - Musk predicts that the number of humanoid robots will exceed the human population by 2040, with plans for significant production increases leading up to that date [18][20] - The production strategy for Optimus includes completing complex tasks in Tesla factories by the end of 2026, with an initial production target of 50,000 units in 2026 and scaling up to 1 million by 2030 [18][20]

Core Insights - Retail investors are shifting their investments away from Apple Inc. and are increasingly buying shares of Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. [1][3] Group 1: Retail Investment Trends - Nvidia has seen a significant influx of retail investment, with $15 billion in net purchases since July 2025, surpassing all other Magnificent 7 companies combined [1][2] - Tesla follows Nvidia with $6 billion in net retail purchases during the same period, indicating strong interest from retail investors [1][2] - Apple has experienced a $4 billion outflow in retail investments, reflecting a negative sentiment towards the company compared to its AI-focused competitors [3] Group 2: Performance of Other Tech Giants - Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. each attracted over $3 billion in retail purchases, showing a solid interest in these companies [4] - Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. saw over $2 billion in retail investments each, indicating a mixed performance among the tech giants [4] - Despite varying performance, investment advisors suggest that these companies are generating stronger revenue and earnings growth compared to the broader market [4]