以下文章来源于字母PRO ，作者苗正 特斯拉近期向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的一份关键文件显示，公司向汽车业务高级副总裁朱晓彤（Tom Zhu）授予了520021份股票期权，行权价格 定为435.80美元，授予日期为2026年1月8日。 按照授予时的市价计算，这份期权的理论面值高达2.26亿美元，也就是约16亿人民币，如果10年内特斯拉市值冲上马斯克许诺的8万亿美元，那这份期权的 价值将膨胀到约100亿人民币。 熟悉马斯克的人不难发现，这压根不是他的风格。因为马斯克这个人向来以冷酷著称。 2022年10月收购推特后，他在短短数周内裁掉了超过50%的员工，约3700人被一纸邮件扫地出门，CEO帕拉格·阿格拉瓦尔等四位核心高管，更是在交易完 成当天即被解雇，毫无商量余地。 在特斯拉，他同样不留情面。2024年4月，为削减成本应对利润压力，马斯克突然宣布全球裁员超过10%，涉及约14000名员工，甚至包括特斯拉超级充电团 队的负责人，也是整个特斯拉充电网络的灵魂人物丽贝卡·蒂努奇。 马斯克的管理哲学简单粗暴，谁不能立即创造价值，谁就没有存在的必要。然而对于朱晓彤，马斯克却反其道而行之。这种长周期锁定在马斯克的 ...

Market Overview - The market this week was driven by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the fluctuating geopolitical situation regarding Iran, impacting gold, silver, and oil prices [2][3] - The US dollar index faced initial pressure due to political uncertainty but later strengthened, supported by better-than-expected economic data and reduced rate cut expectations, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [2] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce before settling at $4583 per ounce, while silver peaked at nearly $93.70 per ounce, marking a nearly 30% increase this year [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to speculation that it may adopt a more hawkish stance, as indicated by various financial institutions [5] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need to maintain independence and base decisions on data rather than political pressure, with some suggesting that current economic data does not support immediate rate cuts [12][13] Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical situation in Iran has seen a temporary easing, with the US indicating a reduced likelihood of large-scale military action, although military readiness remains [14][15] - Diplomatic efforts from Middle Eastern countries have contributed to the de-escalation of tensions, with the US maintaining a stance of observing Iran's actions closely [15] Investment Strategies - The introduction of dynamic margin requirements for precious metals by CME is expected to increase market volatility, particularly affecting high-leverage traders [16] - The National Grid of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in the construction of a new power system during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [21] Corporate Earnings - Major banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reported strong quarterly earnings, driven by a rebound in investment banking activities and robust trading revenues [27] - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, with a 35% year-on-year increase, attributed to strong demand for AI-related chips [24]

Core Viewpoint - Technology stocks, particularly Tesla, have been under scrutiny due to a disconnect between promises made by CEO Elon Musk and the company's actual performance, especially in light of the upcoming earnings report on January 28, 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Tesla's stock gained only 11.4% last year, underperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which rose by 16.4% and 20.4% respectively [2]. - The company provided a preview of its fourth-quarter earnings, revealing expected deliveries of 422,850 for Q4 and 1,640,752 for the full year of 2025, which were later missed with actual deliveries of 418,227 and 1,636,129 vehicles [5][6]. - Declining vehicle deliveries, which are Tesla's primary source of revenue and profit, raise concerns about the company's financial health and market share [7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - As of January 12, 2026, Tesla's stock is at breakeven, with some brief rallies expected leading up to the earnings report [8]. - Despite missing Wall Street's delivery estimates, Tesla's stock continues to trade at a premium, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and actual performance [9].

【时政新闻】 ①美总统特使：美国倾向于通过外交手段解决伊朗紧张局势； ②美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特： -特朗普将公布一项关于用401(k)支付房屋首付的计划； -若当选美联储主席，将承诺维护美联储的独立； ③普京分别与以色列、伊朗领导人通话。俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫称，普京将继续努力缓和该地区 局势； ④泽连斯基：乌代表团将于近日在美与美方代表会面； ⑤美媒称摩萨德局长抵美磋商伊朗局势； ⑥美国格陵兰岛特使计划于三月访问该岛； 【市场动态】 ①美股三大股指期货涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.03%，标普500指数期货涨0.13%，纳指期货涨 0.46%； ②欧洲主要股指集体下跌，截至发稿，英国富时100指数跌0.06%，法国CAC40指数跌0.72%，德国 DAX30指数跌0.28%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.34%； ③国际贵金属价格走低，现货白银、纽约期银双双大跌逾4%；现货黄金跌破4590美元/盎司，日内跌超 0.5%； ④欧洲基准天然气价格一度飙升10%，创6月以来新高； 【公司新闻】 ①意大利对微软启动调查，指控其游戏存在"误导性与强制性"销售行为； ②华为、小米等品牌被纳入苹果iPhone ...

Futures are higher, and trading near record territory, led by tech as this year’s great rotation shows no sign of slowing, broadening the base of names driving Wall Street’s push back towards all time highs. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures were 0.3% higher with Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.4% as the latest wave of enthusiasm for technology stocks carried into Friday. Overnight headlines were mostly muted. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly higher led by NVDA +1.1%; AI names (AMD +3.2%, AVGO +1.3%, MU +2%) continued th ...

Market Overview - The market this week was influenced by two main themes: the investigation rumors surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and concerns over the "independence of the Federal Reserve," impacting the dollar and interest rate expectations; and fluctuating geopolitical news related to Iran, leading to volatility in gold and oil prices [1] - The dollar index faced pressure early in the week due to political uncertainty but later strengthened supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data and reduced expectations for recent rate cuts, aiming for a third consecutive week of gains [1] - Gold prices initially surged to a historical high of $4642.85 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, but later entered a consolidation phase, closing at $4583 per ounce [1] - Silver saw a significant increase, peaking at nearly $93.70 per ounce, with a year-to-date rise of nearly 30%, although it experienced extreme volatility [1] Non-U.S. Currencies - The "high market trading" led to the Japanese yen falling below the 159 mark against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since July 2024; the euro and pound showed slight weakness while the Australian dollar remained relatively stable [2] - Oil prices were primarily driven by news related to Iran, initially rising due to concerns over internal unrest but later retracing gains as U.S. political statements eased tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Lloyds Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve might become a scapegoat for the weak U.S. job market; UBS indicated that concerns over the Fed's independence could lead to a more hawkish stance [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that the Fed would continue to make decisions based on data, unaffected by investigation pressures; Morgan Stanley stated that inflation remains above target, insufficient to support a rate cut in January [5] Major Events - Trump criticized Powell again, claiming he is either incompetent or corrupt, amidst a backdrop of a criminal investigation into Powell, which has drawn support for him from global central bank leaders [6] - The Senate Majority Leader questioned the investigation's legitimacy, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence [7] - The December CPI data indicated a strong signal of cooling inflation, leading to increased market bets on early rate cuts, although Fed officials warned against premature easing [8] Corporate Developments - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$505.7 billion (approximately $16 billion) for Q4 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [24] - Apple and Google reached a potential $5 billion AI partnership, opting for Google's Gemini model over OpenAI, impacting the competitive landscape in AI technology [26] - Tesla announced a shift from a one-time purchase model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature to a subscription model, aiming to create a more stable revenue stream and lower entry barriers for consumers [28]

U.S. auto safety regulators have granted Tesla a five-week extension to respond to an investigation into whether its vehicles violated traffic laws while the Elon Musk-led company's Full Self-Driving ... ...

技术层面，以端到端大模型为核心的变革正在重构系统架构，推动智能驾驶向一体化、拟人化方向发 展。各车企正通过自研或与第三方合作等方式加速布局该技术。 展望未来，报告预计到2030年，城市NOA将成为辅助驾驶主流功能。工信部此前预测，高级别自动驾 驶的规模化应用将为汽车产业创造万亿级产值增量。杨中平也指出，行业目前仍面临核心技术攻坚、数 据安全与算力支撑、标准法规完善等挑战。 城市NOA现状："双强"主导与自主领先 城市NOA功能正成为主流车型的新竞争焦点。城市NOA正从技术研发迈向市场普及，规模化落地与用 户体验成为衡量车企智能化水平的关键。市场呈现"车企自研+第三方合作"双轮驱动格局。 2026年1月14日，《2025城市NOA汽车辅助驾驶研究报告》（下称"报告"）正式发布。报告显示，2025 年1月至11月，中国搭载城市NOA（导航辅助驾驶）功能的乘用车累计销量达312.9万辆，占同期乘用车 上险量的15.1%，较2024年全年提升5.6个百分点。 值得关注的是，其中起售价30万元以下的主流车型销量占比达到68.9%。这意味着，曾经作为高端车 型"差异化配置"的城市NOA功能，正迈向主流消费市场。 中国汽车 ...

除了调查特斯拉在启用FSD功能时违反交通安全法规的行为外，NHTSA还在审查该公司车辆检测并妥 善应对阳光眩光、雾霾和其他低能见度环境的能力。在发生多起事故(其中一起造成人员死亡)后，该监 管机构于2024年10月启动了这项调查。 NHTSA上个月向特斯拉发出信息请求，要求该公司提供与所指控缺陷相关的消费者投诉、现场报告、 财产损失索赔、仲裁程序或诉讼的数量。特斯拉于1月12日告知监管机构，需要更多时间来确定可能与 调查相关的交通违章报告。 据特斯拉向NHTSA提交的文件显示，截至今日，仍有8313条记录需要人工审核。该公司估计每天能够 处理约300条记录，并需要在2月23日前做出回应。 对于特斯拉而言，FSD的熟练程度日益重要。该公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克寄希望于该系统能够提振 市场需求，此前特斯拉的年度汽车交付量连续下滑。尽管马斯克经常吹捧特斯拉自动驾驶功能的有效 性，但加利福尼亚州指责该公司夸大了其汽车的性能，并威胁要暂停销售30天，该禁令可能于今年年初 生效。 智通财经APP获悉，美国监管机构给予特斯拉(TSLA.US)五周的延期，以开始调查该公司在启用全自动 驾驶系统(FSD)时，其车辆违反交通法规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. AI stock rally continues, driven by strong earnings from TSMC, but signs of caution are emerging as some investors rotate out of positions and precious metals show unusual strength, indicating potential hedging against risks [1][13]. Group 1: AI and Semiconductor Sector - TSMC's Q4 results confirmed ongoing AI infrastructure spending, beating estimates and raising its 2026 capex forecast, leading to bullish ratings from major banks [2]. - The semiconductor supply chain benefited from this momentum, with Jefferies raising Nvidia's price target to $275, while AMD's stock surged 11% due to strong performance in AI testing [3]. - AMD's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 60, indicating strong momentum without being overbought, suggesting a healthy rally [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Stock Movements - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire Nvidia stake, indicating a belief that easy gains for the stock may be over, with analysts divided on Nvidia's future prospects [5]. - Retail investors are increasingly engaging with high-beta stocks, as seen with AST SpaceMobile's significant price increase driven by social media sentiment [6]. - Micron Technology showed rational momentum with a 42% increase over the past month, supported by strong earnings growth and favorable valuation metrics [7]. Group 3: Tesla's Challenges - Tesla's stock has struggled, gaining only 0.6% this week and down 8% over the past month, with significant sales declines in key markets [8]. - The upcoming transition to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving (FSD) is tied to ambitious growth targets, but the product remains at Level 2, facing competition from other companies [9]. Group 4: Precious Metals and Economic Signals - Silver and gold prices have surged, with silver up 20% this week and 43% over the past month, indicating potential hedging against economic instability [11]. - Amazon's copper supply deal with Rio Tinto for AWS data centers highlights the importance of securing physical commodity supply chains amid AI infrastructure demands [12].