政策潮水慢慢退去，电车行业正面临着从"政策输血"到"市场造血"的转向。 作者 | 娜娜 来源 | 豹变 2025年，中国新能源车渗透率首次突破50%，这个数字背后，是"油电倒挂"时代的真正到来。 随着充电桩遍布街头巷尾，续航轻松突破500公里，"续航焦虑"几乎不成为购车困扰。国产力量的集体 崛起与激烈的内部竞争，彻底改写了赛场规则。 热闹的销量背后，是"电动化"的逐渐完善，这也意味着"智能化"竞争正式开始，各家车企把"智能化"的 概念炒得火热，噱头层出不穷。可当消费者真正坐进车里，却发现城区智驾还得时刻盯着，系统急刹、 误判时有发生。 技术在进步，体验却没跟上营销节奏。 更关键的转折点出现在2026年，购置税减半、补贴政策调整，电车行业面临着从"政策输血"到"自我造 血"的转向。除了比智驾这项硬实力，用户体验这个软实力也不容忽视。 根据乘联会公布的2025年1-12月新能源厂商零售销量排行榜，比亚迪汽车以348.45万辆的累计销量稳居 榜首，虽然同比下滑6.3%，但市场份额依然高达27.2%，是唯一一家销量超300万辆的车企。 榜首之外的座次排列在2025年迎来重新洗牌。部分传统车企转型见效，在新能源赛道快速 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's stock gained 11% in 2025, underperforming the overall market, but has seen a remarkable increase of 3,130% over the past decade, contributing to a market cap of $1.4 trillion [1] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 292, indicating high market expectations for future performance [2] Group 1: Autonomous Driving and Robotaxis - Progress in robotaxi development is crucial for Tesla, with expectations that the company will achieve full self-driving technology and expand its robotaxi service [3] - In 2025, Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, but needs to expand to new cities and increase Cybercab production in 2026 [4] - Competition from Nvidia's AI tools for autonomous driving could impact Tesla's growth potential, emphasizing the need for Tesla to focus on its own software development [5] Group 2: Core Business and Market Conditions - Tesla's valuation is heavily influenced by its autonomous-driving ambitions, but it remains primarily an EV manufacturer, with automotive deliveries declining by 9% year-over-year in 2025 [7] - Higher interest rates and the expiration of the EV tax credit are making new cars more expensive, while increased competition presents challenges for Tesla [8] - Shareholders are looking for improvements in top-line growth and margins from Tesla's core business in 2026 [8]

温馨提示 ： 点击下方图片，查看运营团队最新原创报告（共260页） 说明： 欢迎约稿、刊例合作、行业交流 ， 行业交流记得先加入 "机器人头条"知识星球 ，后添加（ 微信号：lietou100w ）微 信； 若有侵权、改稿请联系编辑运营（微信：li_sir_2020）； 正文： 马斯克连续为Optimus V3打call，2026年第二周（周五），T链们再迎来一波上行行情！ 2026年开年，伴随大盘走势大幅上行背景下，尽管T链标的发包、待定点、定点等利好资讯不断，T链们丝毫没有 承接去年12月底的主升行情且走势较弱的原因，小编往期文章已多次提到提到过"利好催化不足，缺乏官方"爆 点"利好催化，所以仅是核心利好标的行情"。 商业航天、脑机接口、自动驾驶年后皆大幅上行，尤其是商业航天，行情和热度从去年12月延续至今，最热门板 块且没有之一，马年炒"马"的逻辑毋庸置疑；唯一的区别，相较于这三者，人形机器人Optimus项目目前还没有 阶段性进展（V3样机亮相）且没有官方利好推文（特指马斯克 ） 。 最终，伴随马斯克两篇为 Optimus V3打call推文，T链们终于在周五（1月17日）迎来一波真正上行行情，运营 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investor Gary Black has exited his position in Tesla Inc. due to concerns over its stock valuation and increased competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market [1][4]. Group 1: Tesla's Valuation and Market Position - Black compared Tesla's current valuation to Amazon's early days, noting that he invested in Amazon despite its infinite P/E ratio because he recognized its potential in retail [2][6]. - Tesla was previously Black's fund's largest position, attributed to its unique ability to produce high-quality EVs at a significant cost advantage [4]. - The decision to exit Tesla was influenced by the penetration of competition in the EV market and the stock price exceeding Black's valuation estimates [4]. Group 2: Future Trends and Competitors - Black sees a similar trend emerging in autonomous driving, with many competitors beginning to offer unsupervised autonomous ride-hailing services, facilitated by advancements in technology from companies like Nvidia [5]. - Despite the exit from Tesla stock, Black maintains a positive view of the company itself, indicating a distinction between the company's potential and its current stock valuation [5]. Group 3: Tesla's Sales Performance - Tesla's Model Y was the best-selling EV in the U.S. last year, with over 357,528 units sold, and the introduction of a 7-seater layout version could further enhance sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic importance of Spain as a key entry point for Chinese automotive companies into the European market, highlighting various partnerships and investments that are reshaping the automotive landscape in Spain and beyond [4][12][20]. Group 1: Chinese Automotive Expansion in Spain - The establishment of a joint venture, EBRO, between Chery Automobile and Spanish company EV Motor in Barcelona marks a significant step in revitalizing the local automotive industry [6][24]. - Other Chinese companies, such as Leap Motor and Dongfang Automotive, are also setting up manufacturing bases in Spain, indicating a broader trend of Chinese automotive firms entering the European market [9][12]. - The article emphasizes that Spain serves as a strategic hub for Chinese automotive companies to access the EU market, leveraging its favorable trade conditions and logistical advantages [20][28]. Group 2: Economic and Market Context - Spain is the fifth largest new car market in the EU, with new car registrations expected to reach approximately 1.017 million in 2024, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year growth [18]. - The EU's electric vehicle penetration rate is around 38%, making it a lucrative market for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers [16]. - The article notes that by 2025, Chinese electric vehicle brands had captured over 11% of the European market share, indicating significant growth potential [16]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages of Spain - Spain's geographical position allows for efficient access to key markets in Europe, Latin America, and North Africa, enhancing the logistics and distribution capabilities for Chinese automotive firms [20][28]. - The country offers attractive tax incentives for new automotive ventures, including tax reductions and subsidies for companies that create jobs and invest in local production [27][28]. - The existing automotive ecosystem in Spain, characterized by a mature supply chain and skilled workforce, provides a conducive environment for Chinese companies to establish operations and innovate [34][35]. Group 4: Challenges and Adaptation - Chinese automotive companies face challenges in fully integrating into the local market and supply chain, necessitating a deep commitment to local partnerships and community engagement [29][32]. - The article highlights Chery's strategic approach of leveraging local assets and forming partnerships to mitigate risks associated with entering the European market [24][29]. - The need for Chinese firms to adapt to local regulations and consumer preferences is emphasized as crucial for long-term success in Spain and the broader European market [29][32].

Jason Calacanis, tech investor and podcaster, said Tesla Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) humanoid robot Optimus could overshadow the company's automotive legacy after a visit to its robotics facility.Visit To Tesla Optimus LabOn Thursday's episode of the All-In Podcast, Calacanis said he visited Tesla's Optimus lab with CEO Elon Musk two Sundays earlier at 10 a.m., where he saw Optimus 3 and watched teams of engineers at work. He made the remarks while speaking with Bob Sternfels, global managing partner of McKinsey & ...

特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，公司用于完全自动驾驶系统的AI5 芯片设计工作已基本完 成，现处于开发下一代AI6的早期阶段。马斯克表示，特斯拉希望未来的芯片迭代采用9个月的设计周 期。马斯克在去年11月24日发布有关芯片进展的帖子后，特斯拉股价一度大涨近7%。该公司使用这些 芯片为其自动驾驶汽车功能以及仍处于起步阶段的 机器人产品线提供支持。（智通财经） ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%[1] - Small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 2.2%, followed by small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 1.9%[1] - Among 10 sectors, 6 sectors saw gains, with Food & Staples Retailing up 4.6% and Capital Goods up 4.4%[1] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flow for S&P 500 components was -$1.7 billion this week, down from +$130.2 million last week[2] - Semiconductor products and equipment saw a significant inflow of $37.6 million, while Software & Services experienced an outflow of $32.7 million[2] Earnings Forecast - The 12-month forward EPS estimate for S&P 500 components was revised up by 0.3% this week, consistent with last week[3] - The automotive sector led with an EPS increase of 1.3%, while the energy sector saw a decrease of 2.1%[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policies[3]

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk's surprise announcement to offer the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology as a subscription service only starting next month has raised questions about the motive behind the move and whether it could be tied to tranches outlined in the trillion-dollar pay package approved last November by investors.The AnnouncementMusk shared the announcement via a post on the social media platform X in the wee hours of Wednesday, saying that the company would stop selling FSD ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The human-shaped robot's ability to run smoothly represents a significant technological leap from mere functionality to human-like capabilities, indicating a potential shift towards practical applications in complex environments [9][20] - The competition in the humanoid robot industry has evolved into a multi-dimensional strategic game, with different focuses across the supply chain, emphasizing the need for companies to integrate technology, establish standards, and meet real industry demands [22][30] - The future of humanoid robots hinges on overcoming five critical conditions: technological maturity, cost control, clear market positioning, infrastructure development, and societal acceptance [30][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: The Impact of Robot Running Demonstrations - The recent running demonstrations by Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI have generated significant global interest, suggesting a potential breakthrough in the commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6] - These demonstrations challenge the notion that advanced robotics can only exist in controlled environments, indicating a shift towards practical, scalable applications [31] Section 2: Technical Breakdown of Running Capabilities - Achieving running capabilities involves overcoming substantial technical challenges, including dynamic balance, rapid response times, and energy efficiency [10][19] - The transition from walking to running signifies a fundamental change in robotic capabilities, moving from static to dynamic balance, which is essential for operating in unpredictable environments [12][20] Section 3: Business Logic Behind the Demonstrations - The timing of these demonstrations reflects a strategic move by industry leaders to signal their technological advancements and readiness for market integration [32] - Both Tesla and Figure AI are pursuing different paths: Tesla aims for a universal platform while Figure AI focuses on specific industrial applications, highlighting the diverse strategies within the industry [26][30] Section 4: Industry Chain Dynamics - The competition among suppliers, manufacturers, and application developers is intensifying, with each segment vying for control over standards and market share [22][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust ecosystem that supports the development and deployment of humanoid robots in real-world applications [30] Section 5: Future Outlook - The next few years are critical for validating the feasibility of humanoid robots, with key indicators including commercial orders, supply chain formation, and cost reduction trends [31] - The industry is at a pivotal moment, transitioning from experimental demonstrations to practical implementations that can deliver economic value [31]