Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is expected to see a strong recovery, with global sales projected to reach a new high of $687.38 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [6][9] - The memory segment is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a forecasted increase of 76.8% in 2024, while logic chips are expected to grow by 10.7% [9] - The domestic semiconductor market in China is also recovering, with sales reaching $162 billion in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [9] Consumer Electronics - The smartphone and PC markets are showing signs of moderate recovery, with Apple expected to see a 10.5% increase in iPhone sales in 2025 [2] - The 3D printing industry is moving towards mass production, with significant potential for growth in various application areas [2] AI and Computing - The global investment in computing power remains high, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure, with ASIC demand expected to rise significantly [2][23] - Marvell predicts that the market for customized ASICs will grow at a CAGR of 45% from 2023 to 2028, with the total addressable market reaching $750 billion by 2028 [23] Capacitor and Display Technologies - The MLCC market is projected to see double-digit growth from 2024 to 2027, driven by the demand from AI servers and laptops [2] - The LCD TV panel market is stabilizing, with a recovery in demand expected to support price increases [2] CIS Market - The demand for CMOS image sensors (CIS) is expected to rise, particularly in the automotive sector, with a projected increase in global automotive CIS shipments from 354 million units in 2023 to 755 million units by 2029 [34] - The smartphone market remains the largest application area for CIS, accounting for 71.4% of the total market [33]

Summary of Co-packaged Optics (CPO) in the Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **semiconductor industry**, specifically the **co-packaged optics (CPO)** technology, which is critical for next-generation AI servers to meet increasing bandwidth demands and improve power efficiency [4][9][32]. Key Insights 1. **CPO Market Potential**: - CPO transceivers could generate a revenue market of **US$7-14 billion** by **2030E** [4]. - Silicon photonics, including CPO, may drive a **US$6-9 billion** revenue market by **2030E**, contributing **2-3%** sales upside to companies like **TSMC** and **ASE** [4][6]. 2. **Technological Transition**: - The industry is expected to transition to CPO technology as AI data center switches move to the **3.2T/port era** around **2027-28E**, followed by integration with xPU in **2028-30E** [4][11][74]. - Traditional optical transceivers will coexist with CPO for the next **2-3 years** as the technology matures [5][6]. 3. **Market Growth**: - The optical transceiver serviceable addressable market (SAM) is projected to grow from **US$12 billion** in **2025E** to **US$32 billion** by **2030E**, with a **CAGR of 22%** [13]. - CPO solutions are expected to capture **20%** of the optical transceiver market by **2030E** [13]. 4. **Impact on Key Players**: - **TSMC** is expected to strengthen its position in Cloud AI through CPO development, while **ASE** could gain significant market share in fiber array units and switch board packaging [6]. - Traditional optical suppliers like **Lumentum** and **Marvell** may face mixed implications due to the rise of CPO, but pluggable transceivers will maintain volume for the near term [6]. 5. **Fibre Optics vs. Copper**: - The shift from copper to fiber optics in data centers is driven by the superior performance of fiber in bandwidth, speed, and distance [18][21]. - Data centers are projected to account for **4%** of global copper demand by **2030E**, up from **1.5%** in **2024** [17]. Challenges and Considerations 1. **Technical Challenges**: - Major challenges for CPO include precise coupling, packaging, thermal management, and reliability [5][11]. - The industry must mature CPO technology by **2027-28** to meet the demands of the **3.2T** switch integration [11]. 2. **Adoption Hesitance**: - Hyperscalers may adopt CPO gradually, needing assurance of system reliability and interoperability across different solution providers [71][72]. 3. **Production Complexity**: - CPO systems require advanced packaging techniques and rigorous testing to ensure reliability, which poses production challenges [68][70]. Conclusion - CPO technology is poised to disrupt the optical module supply chain, offering significant growth opportunities for semiconductor companies while addressing the increasing demands of AI data centers. The transition from traditional optical solutions to CPO will require careful management of technological challenges and market dynamics.

每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 今日，半导体产业链拉升走高，半导体设备ETF（159516）涨近1.5%，近10日净流入额超2.8亿元，今年来 份额增长超60%，当前规模近30亿元，位于同类半导体设备ETF首位。 （2）政策大力扶持，国产替代加速 当前背景下，国内芯片产业链面临着供应安全的挑战，加速国产替代成为必然选择。同时，随着国内芯片 技术的不断进步，为国产替代提供了技术和产业基础。当前政策端不断发力，大基金三期注册资本达3440 亿元，高于一期二期总和。大基金主要投资方向为先进晶圆制造、先进封测和设备材料领域，有望加速国 产替代进程。 （3）进口替代空间广阔 结合资金支持以及国内半导体制造企业开始考虑供应链的安全，国内做半导体设备和材料的企业订单实现 了快速增长，每年可能有1~2倍这样的增长速度。另外，当前中国大陆每年的半导体设备资本开支大约为 300亿~400亿美元，已经占到了全球市场的30%以上，未来国产替代空间广阔。 （4）人工智能大模型催化，算力芯片需求爆发 AI大模型快速迭代，训练需求激增，对于算力芯片的需求不断加大。中研普华产业研究院数据预测，2025 年中国AI芯片市场规模将增至153 ...

Group 1 - AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, stated that chips produced at TSMC's Arizona facility will have costs that are "more than 5% but less than 20%" higher compared to similar components produced in Taiwan [1] - AMD expects to produce its first chips at TSMC's Arizona factory by the end of this year, viewing the additional costs as worthwhile for diversifying critical chip supply [1] - The new Arizona facility's production yield is already comparable to that of TSMC's Taiwan factories, indicating a successful transition [2] Group 2 - The event highlighted the importance of government and industry collaboration, with AI being prioritized by the government [2] - AMD and its larger competitor, NVIDIA, recently received exemptions for certain types of AI accelerator exports to China, although the specifics of the licenses and timelines remain unclear [2] - The U.S. government has implemented increasingly strict regulations on semiconductor exports to China due to national security concerns, resulting in significant revenue losses for U.S. chip manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Future policies need to balance allowing exports to U.S. allies to ensure that American technology remains foundational to global AI systems [3] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary expressed a willingness to see allies purchase large quantities of chips and build large clusters, which will influence access for U.S. companies [3] - Demand for AI chips is expected to remain high, with notable investments in AI from figures like Sam Altman and Elon Musk [3]

Market Performance - The US stock market saw significant gains on July 23, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 507.85 points, or 1.14%, closing at 45010.29 points. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 127.33 points, or 0.61%, closing at 21020.02 points, marking its first close above the 21000-point threshold. The S&P 500 index rose by 49.29 points, or 0.78%, closing at 6358.91 points [1][3][4]. Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Japan, which has heightened market expectations for further trade agreements before the August 1 tariff deadline. The agreement includes a reduction of the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15% and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US [2][6][7]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, nine out of eleven sectors experienced gains, with the healthcare and industrial sectors leading with increases of 2.03% and 1.75%, respectively. The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw declines of 0.79% and 0.07% [8]. - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with AMD increasing over 3%, and other companies like NVIDIA, Boeing, and TSMC rising over 2%. Financial stocks also saw gains, with Mizuho Financial up over 6% and UBS Group up over 3% [8]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.75%, with notable increases in stocks such as iQIYI, which rose over 4%, and Tiger Brokers, which increased over 3%. However, some stocks like NIO and Li Auto saw declines of over 1% [9].

Group 1 - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially rose by 0.7% [1] - Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Xiaoma Zhixing increased by 7.7%, WeRide rose by 5.2%, Tencent gained 4%, and Pinduoduo climbed by 3% [1] - TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) increased by 2.3%, Alibaba rose by 1.5%, while NetEase, Baidu, and JD.com had gains of less than 1% [1] Group 2 - Xiaomi decreased by 0.7%, Li Auto fell by 1.4%, and NIO dropped by 2.1% [1]

Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su said that the chips her company gets from supplier TSMC cost more when they’re produced in the company’s Arizona facilities. https://t.co/lUtkjjXj9n ...

Core Viewpoint - The bullish perspective on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is supported by its strong stock performance compared to the S&P 500, indicating a positive investment outlook [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on generating alpha by analyzing various sectors with perceived potential against the S&P 500, with typical holding periods ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1]. - Comprehensive spreadsheets are maintained to track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers, which aids in informed decision-making [1]. Group 2: Research Methodology - The research methodology emphasizes assessing a company's historical performance and outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates, rather than projecting long-term financials [1]. - The analysis includes monitoring industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, especially during significant events like CEO changes, to understand leadership impact [1].

智通财经7月24日电，AMD首席执行官称，台积电美国工厂的芯片成本高出5%至20%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), emphasizing that it may still be a good time to invest in the company despite previous analyses [1]. Group 1 - TSMC is highlighted as a key player in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on its ability to provide actionable investment ideas [1]. - The company has been noted for its performance in helping investors outperform the S&P 500 and avoid significant losses during market volatility [2].