前言 《百亿基金内参》打破机构信息壁垒，为您提供一线基金经理的深度研判与实时资金动向。每周深度访 谈还原投资逻辑，日常内参追踪机构调仓信号，助您看透表象、提前布局、掌握核心投研方法。告别滞 后与碎片信息，直达决策核心。 【本期重点】 ★台积电引爆信心！大幅上调AI收入指引，半导体景气度获验证 ★主题退潮后谁接力？业绩扎实的"出海"方向有望扛旗 本期会谈，邀请数位买方机构的基金经理，对大盘、政策、以及后市投资机会等进行深度交流。 点击付费阅读，打通与百亿基金经理的信息差！ ★AI大战进入"赚钱"阶段：紧跟巨头，关注传统板块升级 ★AI Agent：巨头必争的下一代入口，或是全年确定性主线 ★新焦点浮现！自动驾驶：技术突破+政策助推，或成下一风口 ★先进封装从"可选"到"必选"，国内企业迎来价值重估 ...

每经AI快讯，1月21日，美股明星科技股盘前多数上涨。美光科技涨超2%，台积电涨近2%，英伟达涨 1%；谷歌微跌。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

李在明：已根据与美国的贸易协定设置保障措施 韩国总统李在明周三对美国拟议的半导体进口关税做出强硬回应，认为这一政策最终将推高美国国内价 格。 李在明在新闻发布会上指出： 鉴于韩国和中国台湾芯片制造商占据全球市场80%至90%的垄断地位，美国征收100%的进口 关税很可能导致芯片产品价格在美国大幅上涨，大部分成本很可能会转嫁到美国的价格上。 这一表态凸显韩国在全球半导体供应链中的关键地位。三星电子和SK海力士在存储芯片领域占据主导 地位，而台积电则在芯片代工制造市场处于垄断地位。韩国2025年出口额达到创纪录的7094亿美元，同 比增长3.8%，其中半导体出货量因人工智能投资需求强劲而跃升22%。 据央视新闻，白宫本月14日宣布，从15日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征25%的进 口从价关税。据央视新闻报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克随后威胁称，韩国存储芯片制造商如果不在美国 增加生产，就可能被征收高达100%的关税。 李在明强调，韩国已根据与美国的贸易协定设置了保障措施，以确保韩国芯片制造商不会处于相对于其 他全球竞争对手的不利地位。 韩国半导体出口数据显示其对全球市场的依赖程度。在总计1734亿美元 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI computing demand is surging, with advanced processes solidifying growth foundations. TSMC's revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion in Q4 2025, driven by AI chip demand, with advanced process revenue share rising to 77% [6][7] - Strong profitability resilience is noted, with gross margin reaching 62.3% and net profit margin at 48.3% in Q4 2025, significantly exceeding guidance [10][11] - Global capacity layout and technology/resource allocation are strengthening long-term barriers, with TSMC's overseas capacity expansion and advanced packaging facilities progressing [6][12] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with competitive advantages in advanced manufacturing and those benefiting from domestic advanced packaging capacity [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Q4 2025 Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.04609 trillion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%, driven by AI-related high-performance computing chip demand [7][10] - The advanced process (7nm and below) revenue share increased to 77%, with 3nm process contributing 28% of revenue, highlighting the importance of AI chip demand [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% increase from previous plans, focusing on advanced process capacity expansion and semiconductor equipment procurement [17][21] - The company aims for a long-term revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, with AI accelerator revenue CAGR adjusted upwards for 2024-2029 [21]

存储芯片板块活跃，龙芯中科开盘即20CM涨停，海光信息大涨13%，带动集成电路ETF涨超5%，年内 涨超18%。 集成电路ETF跟踪中证全指集成电路指数，是布局全产业链芯片龙头的便捷工具，权重股包括寒武纪、 中芯国际、海光信息、兆易创新、澜起科技、豪威集团、紫光国微、长电科技、芯原股份、通富微电等 公司。 消息面上，韩国两大存储芯片巨头三星电子和SK海力士据报将继续削减NAND闪存产量，或加剧供应 短缺情况。据韩媒援引市场研究机构Omdia数据称，三星电子今年NAND晶圆产量将从去年的490万片 降至468万片，甚至低于2024年因盈利能力恶化而实施的减产水平。SK海力士的NAND产量也将从去年 约190万片降至今年的170万片。 此外，美光科技近日表示，过去一个季度内存芯片短缺的情况愈演愈 烈，并重申由于人工智能基础设施所需的高端半导体需求激增，这种短缺状况将持续到今年以后。 集邦咨询报告显示，全球8英寸晶圆供需正步入失衡期。受台积电、三星电子战略性削减产能影响， 2026年全球8英寸代工总产能将萎缩2.4%。而AI驱动的电源管理芯片(Power IC)等产品需求维持强劲， 正拉动行业平均产能利用率回升至9 ...

Core Insights - The Nightview Fund ETF (NITE) achieved a gain of 22.56% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's total return of 17.88% [7] - The fund's strategy focuses on a 20-stock "best ideas" portfolio aimed at long-term investment opportunities rather than following specific trends [8] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has created both opportunities and risks, with AI startups capturing 50% of all venture capital in 2025, a 37% increase from the previous year [13] Investment Strategy - The fund is bullish on AI as a transformative force in the global economy, believing it will lead to significant infrastructure changes [12] - The investment approach is barbelled, balancing exposure to technological advances with investments in sectors rooted in human experiences, such as travel and entertainment [38] - The fund has invested in Alibaba, recognizing its strong position in China's economy despite negative market sentiment [34] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift, with high-performance computing now accounting for approximately 60% of quarterly revenue for companies like TSMC, up from 30% in 2018 [44] - AI's integration into physical systems is expected to create competitive advantages for companies that can leverage real-world data and learning [22] - Tesla is highlighted as a key player in the transition to AI-driven autonomy, with significant improvements in its Full Self-Driving technology [25][27] Market Conditions - The current market environment presents a widening opportunity set, with some companies realizing efficiency gains from AI while others remain undervalued [33] - As interest rates stabilize, there are signs of recovery in deal-making and trading volumes across financial services [37] - The historical context of past technology cycles suggests that while excesses may emerge, the demand for AI-driven infrastructure is likely to remain strong [49][50]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Design Theme Index (950162) surged by 5.48%, with the E Fund Chip Design ETF (589030) rising over 6% at one point, indicating active market trading [1] - The State Council held a press conference discussing the achievements in industrial and information technology development by 2025, emphasizing the focus on technological innovation and key technology breakthroughs in areas like training chips and heterogeneous computing [1] - AI computing power demand is continuously surging, driving the acceleration of advanced process technology iterations, with TSMC projecting record high revenue in Q4 2025, where advanced processes (7nm and below) will account for 77% of revenue, with 3nm process shipments reaching 28% [1] Group 2 - TSMC has raised its compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast for AI accelerator revenue to nearly mid-high 50% for 2024-2029, significantly above the company's overall long-term revenue growth target of 25% [2] - The substantial increase in capital expenditure to $52-56 billion in 2026 reflects the strong global demand for AI computing power, indicating a sustained positive outlook for the data center industry chain [2] - The E Fund Chip Design ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Design Theme Index, which selects listed companies in the chip design sector to reflect the overall performance of this field [2]

Group 1 - The Zhejiang Anji Power Plant has officially commenced full-capacity operation, being the largest and most efficient gas power plant in China, with a total installed capacity of 1686 MW and a design efficiency of 64.15%, providing stable support for winter electricity peaks in East China [2] - The Zhishen Star II large reusable launch vehicle has successfully completed a full system hot test of its main engine (CQ-90), with a basic model takeoff mass of approximately 757 tons and a LEO payload capacity of 20 tons, while the CBC configuration has a takeoff mass of about 1950 tons and a LEO payload capacity of 58 tons [2] - TSMC is increasing its investment in advanced packaging technology as Apple plans to transition its A20 series chips for the iPhone 18 to a 2nm process and upgrade packaging technology from InFO to WMCM, with a new WMCM production line being established at TSMC's Chiayi AP7 factory [2] - The first serial high-energy hydrogen ion implanter (POWER-750H) developed by China National Nuclear Corporation has successfully emitted a beam, achieving core indicators at an internationally advanced level [2]

科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）跟踪的是科创芯片指数（000685），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数覆盖 了芯片全产业链，包括半导体材料、设备、设计、制造、封装测试等环节的科创板成分股。该指数聚焦 于芯片行业，具有高成长性和科技属性，是反映中国芯片产业发展的重要指标。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 1月21日，科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）盘中涨超4.5%，半导体产业龙头建厂扩产需求明确。 华泰证券指出，2026年1月15日台积电披露2026财年资本开支计划为520亿~560亿美元，同比增加 27%~37%。AI应用需求落地下，先进制程、存储芯片供不应求，跨国半导体产业龙头建厂扩产需求明 确。考虑到2026财年跨国半导体龙头资本开支维持乐观，全球洁净室建设需求旺盛，"建设力"扩张缓慢 下，洁净室订单有望量价齐升、利润率上修。洁净室作为场务基础设施环节，基本面有望率先出现积极 变化。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong rebound in the artificial intelligence hardware sector, with significant activity in storage and optical module concepts, leading to notable stock performance from companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Sienan Electronics [1] - The communication ETF Huaxia (515050) and the low-fee entrepreneurial board AI ETF Huaxia (159381) saw a nearly 2% increase during trading, indicating accelerated capital inflow into high-growth sectors, with the communication ETF attracting over 250 million yuan in net inflows over the past three days [1] - DeepSeek's new model "MODEL1" has been revealed, with updates indicating significant differences in memory optimization compared to its predecessor V32, suggesting advancements in AI architecture [1] Group 2 - TSMC's latest financial report exceeded market expectations in revenue, net profit, gross margin, and capital expenditure guidance, indicating continued high growth in AI capital expenditures [2] - Citic Securities believes TSMC's capital expenditure guidance serves as an important forward-looking indicator for the computing power industry, with expectations of strong growth in computing power demand through 2027, particularly in the communication sector [2] Group 3 - The communication ETF Huaxia (515050) tracks the CSI 5G communication theme index, focusing on electronic and communication hardware, with CPO and CPB concept stocks making up over 76% of its weight, the highest in the market [3] - The entrepreneurial board AI ETF Huaxia (159381) is designed to support investments in AI-focused companies, with half of its weight in AI hardware computing power and the other half in AI software applications, offering high elasticity and representativeness [3]