丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 2026 年第 2 周，通信板块上涨 0.99%，在长江一级行业中排名第 8 位；2026 年年初以来，通 信板块上涨 2.51%，在长江一级行业中排名第 19 位。台积电大幅上修 2026 年 Capex 至 520- 560 亿美元，直言产能非常紧张、未来三年资本支出将显著增加；AI 加速器营收占比提升明显， 2024-2029 年营收 CAGR 指引上调至接近 55%。OpenAI、CoreWeave、Meta 与 xAI 等头部 厂商持续扩建 AI 超算集群，锁定中长期算力与能源资源，全球 AI 算力需求强劲。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信周观点：台积电资本开支上修，算力供需共 振景气向好 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信周观点：台积电资本开支上修，算力供需共 2] ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings season for U.S. stocks has shown that actual profits significantly exceeded market expectations, yet investors reacted with the worst stock price performance following earnings beats on record, indicating a cautious sentiment towards future guidance and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][5][15]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Approximately 81% of S&P 500 companies reported actual profits that surpassed fourth-quarter consensus estimates, but their stock prices lagged the benchmark index by an average of 1.1 percentage points, marking the worst relative performance since 2017 [1][15]. - Companies like 3M and State Street saw significant stock price declines despite beating earnings expectations, as investors focused on their bleak forecasts [2][15]. - Netflix's disappointing earnings outlook led to a pre-market drop of about 6%, failing to provide a positive start to the earnings season for tech giants [2][15]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Investors are increasingly focused on management comments and earnings guidance, particularly regarding AI computing demand and consumer health, which are critical narratives for the ongoing bull market [6][13]. - The current market threshold for upward movement is not merely beating consensus expectations but rather providing strong forward guidance to justify high valuations in a sensitive macroeconomic environment [7][13]. - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 22 times forward earnings, above the 10-year average of 19 times, indicating that any signs of weak demand could trigger significant sell-offs [13][15]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Concerns - Concerns over geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, exacerbated by aggressive tariff threats from former President Trump, have led to increased scrutiny from investors in the historically high U.S. stock market [8][15]. - The potential for a global trade war has heightened investor caution, impacting sentiment towards the stock market as it enters its third year of a bull run [8][15]. Group 4: Specific Company Insights - TSMC reported exceptionally strong earnings, with a gross margin exceeding 60% and a projected revenue growth rate of nearly 30% for 2026, significantly boosting investor confidence in semiconductor stocks [14][15]. - The demand for DRAM and NAND storage chips remains robust, driven by the increasing importance of these products in AI training and inference systems, highlighting a critical growth area in the tech sector [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) [1][10] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of NT$10,460.9 billion (US$337.3 billion), a QoQ increase of 5.7% and YoY growth of 20.5% [3][6] - The company anticipates a nearly 30% revenue growth in 2026, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of approximately 25% [6][9] - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at US$52-56 billion, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of US$46.04 billion [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2025, TSMC achieved a gross margin of 62.3%, which is above the guidance of 59%-61% and Bloomberg's consensus of 60.6% [6][9] - The diluted EPS for Q4 2025 was NT$19.50, exceeding Bloomberg's estimate of NT$18.12 [6][9] - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (7nm and below) accounted for 77% of wafer revenue, with 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm processes contributing 14%, 35%, and 28% respectively [6][9] Future Projections - TSMC projects its revenue for 2026 to be NT$51,287 billion, with net profit expected to reach NT$24,403 billion [9][10] - The company anticipates a mid-to-high 50% CAGR for AI processor revenue over the next five years, while overall revenue CAGR is projected at 25% [7][9] - The target price for TSMC's stock is set at NT$2,286.50, with a corresponding ADR target price of US$434.14, reflecting a 20% premium [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Heat Pass Block (HPB) technology by Samsung in the Exynos 2600 represents a significant advancement in mobile SoC thermal management, addressing the challenges posed by high-performance computing and the need for efficient heat dissipation [1][4]. Group 1: HPB Technology Overview - HPB is a metal thermal conduction structure integrated within the chip packaging, designed to shorten the distance for heat transfer from the chip core to the external cooling module [2]. - The primary material used for HPB is copper, which offers excellent thermal conductivity and performance among metals [2]. Group 2: Advantages and Challenges of HPB - The implementation of HPB establishes a more direct thermal pathway between the die and the external cooling system, effectively reducing thermal resistance, which is crucial for high-power chips [4]. - Despite its advantages, HPB introduces new constraints in engineering and product design, including increased volume and height, complexity in packaging design, and higher costs [4]. - The increased Z-axis height of HPB may limit space for other components like batteries or camera modules in slim phone designs [4]. - The complexity of HPB, being a multi-material structure, requires careful management of thermal expansion differences, impacting manufacturing yield and reliability [4]. - The cost implications of HPB packaging necessitate its initial application in flagship or Pro-level SoCs, making it less accessible for mid-range markets [4]. Group 3: Industry Comparison - In contrast, TSMC continues to utilize existing packaging and thermal design strategies without incorporating internal heat conduction structures like HPB, focusing instead on wafer-level multi-chip module (WMCM) packaging to mitigate localized heat concentration [5]. - This indicates a shift in thermal management strategies as mobile SoCs transition into high-power and high-density computing, evolving from single-path solutions to more integrated packaging and system design considerations [5].

Group 1 - A-shares showed resilience despite a significant drop in overseas markets, with major indices rising, particularly in the gold and semiconductor sectors [1][5] - The semiconductor foundry sector is strong, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor seeing gains of over 4% [6] - A report from TrendForce indicates a 2.4% reduction in global 8-inch foundry capacity by 2026 due to strategic cuts by TSMC and Samsung, while demand for AI-driven power management chips remains robust, pushing average capacity utilization rates above 90% [6][7] - Chinese foundries are positioned to benefit from the demand for 8-inch chips, with significant growth in storage chip production driven by AI [7][8] Group 2 - The gold sector is also performing well, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce, and the gold ETF E Fund (159934) seeing a net inflow of 15.067 billion yuan over the past year [9][11][12] - The semiconductor market is experiencing a price surge, with reports indicating a potential 40-50% increase in storage chip prices by Q1 2026, driven by a combination of consumer electronics recovery and AI demand [15][19] - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 has been significantly raised to between $52 billion and $56 billion, indicating strong demand for high-end chips [18][19] Group 3 - SMIC reported a record monthly production capacity of 1.023 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, with utilization rates reaching 95.8% [26] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30% [30] - The semiconductor equipment ETF E Fund (159558) is closely tied to the semiconductor materials and equipment sectors, covering key players in the industry [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AI inference is driving innovation, with a focus on demand-driven Opex-related sectors, particularly in storage, power, ASIC, and supernodes [2][30]. - The semiconductor packaging industry is experiencing a significant price increase of 30%, driven by supply-demand imbalances and rising costs of raw materials [23][24][27]. - The report highlights the expected growth in the domestic computing power supply chain, particularly in storage and ASIC sectors, as companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies and ChangXin Memory Technologies expand production [2][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.14%. The Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 3.77%, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries [1][13]. Weekly Focus - TSMC reported a 35% increase in profits, driven by strong demand for AI chips, with expected capital expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026 [23]. - The packaging industry is benefiting from a recovery in demand, with companies like Li Cheng and Hua Dong Technology seeing increased capacity utilization and order visibility [23][24]. Storage Sector - The report anticipates a significant expansion year for NAND and DRAM production, driven by rising demand for SSDs and HBM products [30]. - Key players in the NAND and DRAM semiconductor supply chain include companies like Zhongwei Technology and Tuo Jing Technology [30]. Power Sector - The report identifies growth opportunities in the power sector, focusing on new technologies in both generation and consumption [31]. ASIC and Supernodes - The report expresses optimism regarding the full-stack model of ASIC inference, predicting an increase in market share for ASICs [31]. - It also notes the anticipated evolution of cabinet models, with growth expected in high-speed interconnects, cabinet manufacturing, and liquid cooling technologies [31]. Domestic Supply Chain - The report highlights improvements in domestic advanced process yields and capacity, which are expected to enhance the supply of domestic computing power chips [30][32].

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每经AI快讯，1月21日，美股明星科技股盘前多数上涨。美光科技涨超2%，台积电涨近2%，英伟达涨 1%；谷歌微跌。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

李在明：已根据与美国的贸易协定设置保障措施 韩国总统李在明周三对美国拟议的半导体进口关税做出强硬回应，认为这一政策最终将推高美国国内价 格。 李在明在新闻发布会上指出： 鉴于韩国和中国台湾芯片制造商占据全球市场80%至90%的垄断地位，美国征收100%的进口 关税很可能导致芯片产品价格在美国大幅上涨，大部分成本很可能会转嫁到美国的价格上。 这一表态凸显韩国在全球半导体供应链中的关键地位。三星电子和SK海力士在存储芯片领域占据主导 地位，而台积电则在芯片代工制造市场处于垄断地位。韩国2025年出口额达到创纪录的7094亿美元，同 比增长3.8%，其中半导体出货量因人工智能投资需求强劲而跃升22%。 据央视新闻，白宫本月14日宣布，从15日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征25%的进 口从价关税。据央视新闻报道，美国商务部长卢特尼克随后威胁称，韩国存储芯片制造商如果不在美国 增加生产，就可能被征收高达100%的关税。 李在明强调，韩国已根据与美国的贸易协定设置了保障措施，以确保韩国芯片制造商不会处于相对于其 他全球竞争对手的不利地位。 韩国半导体出口数据显示其对全球市场的依赖程度。在总计1734亿美元 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI computing demand is surging, with advanced processes solidifying growth foundations. TSMC's revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion in Q4 2025, driven by AI chip demand, with advanced process revenue share rising to 77% [6][7] - Strong profitability resilience is noted, with gross margin reaching 62.3% and net profit margin at 48.3% in Q4 2025, significantly exceeding guidance [10][11] - Global capacity layout and technology/resource allocation are strengthening long-term barriers, with TSMC's overseas capacity expansion and advanced packaging facilities progressing [6][12] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with competitive advantages in advanced manufacturing and those benefiting from domestic advanced packaging capacity [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Q4 2025 Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.04609 trillion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%, driven by AI-related high-performance computing chip demand [7][10] - The advanced process (7nm and below) revenue share increased to 77%, with 3nm process contributing 28% of revenue, highlighting the importance of AI chip demand [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% increase from previous plans, focusing on advanced process capacity expansion and semiconductor equipment procurement [17][21] - The company aims for a long-term revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, with AI accelerator revenue CAGR adjusted upwards for 2024-2029 [21]