IT之家 1 月 16 日消息，郭明錤今日发文称，台积电在今日举行的法人说明会上提到，其 2026 年资本支 出预算预计为 520~560 亿美元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 3632.55 ~ 3911.98 亿元人民币）。 市场分析指出，台积电在公布资本支出指引时通常采取较为保守的态度，因此 2026 年的实际资本支出 最终超过法说会前法人预期的可能性较高。 市场观察普遍认为，英伟达（NVIDIA）的强劲需求是推动台积电提高资本支出的关键驱动因素。郭明 錤披露的信息显示，在争取台积电先进制程产能的策略上，英伟达采取了更为进取的方式。 在黄仁勋提出锁定 P10 与 P11 用地的要求之前，机构投资者对台积电 2026 年资本支出的共识预期约为 450~500 亿美元（现汇率约合 3143.56 ~ 3492.84 亿元人民币）。很显然，这一调整对台积电资本支出产 生了明显影响。 目前，台积电在先进制程（如 3 纳米、2 纳米及更先进节点）和先进封装技术（如 CoWoS）方面的产 能紧张已是行业共识。尽管面临旺盛需求，台积电在产能分配上依然保持严格的审核机制，通常只会承 诺提供低于客户提出的"乐观版本"需求量的产 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC shares have shown strong performance, with a 55% return in 2025 and over 12% increase in 2026, driven by export control news and positive earnings, positioning the stock favorably within the artificial intelligence investment theme [2]. Group 1: U.S. Support and Operations - The U.S. government granted TSMC a key license to support its operations in China, allowing the import of domestically made chip manufacturing equipment to its Nanjing facility, which is crucial for uninterrupted production [3]. - Following the announcement of U.S. support, TSMC shares rose over 5% on January 2, although the Nanjing facility contributes only about 2.4% to TSMC's total revenue in 2024, indicating limited direct impact from this news [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Earnings Performance - The semiconductor sector experienced a general upward trend on January 2, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF rising almost 4.2%, suggesting that TSMC's stock performance was also influenced by broader market movements [5]. - TSMC reported Q4 2025 earnings of $33.7 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 25.5%, significantly exceeding estimates of $31.9 billion and 18.7% growth, leading to a 4.4% increase in shares on January 15 [5][6].

Core Insights - Investors are encouraged to consider purchasing leading AI stocks following Taiwan Semiconductor's strong fourth-quarter results, which were significantly enhanced by AI demand [1][2] - The semiconductor industry, particularly companies like Taiwan Semiconductor, is expected to continue thriving in the AI sector, with projections indicating robust growth through 2026 [1][8] Semiconductor Industry - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) raised its capital expenditure guidance for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, surpassing the previous year's guidance of $40.9 billion [8] - TSMC anticipates a revenue increase of 30% in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% from 2024 to 2029 [8] AI Stocks - The tech sector is projected to experience a 20% earnings growth in 2026, contributing to an overall S&P 500 earnings growth of 12.8% [4][5] - Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) is highlighted as a key AI infrastructure stock, expected to grow its revenue by 28% in 2025 and 22% in 2026, reaching $12.43 billion [13] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is positioned as a strong competitor in the AI chip market, with a projected revenue growth of 32% in 2025 and 28% in 2026, aiming for $43.43 billion [20] Earnings Outlook - The overall earnings outlook for the tech sector has improved significantly since early July, with all 16 Zacks sectors expected to show positive earnings growth for the first time since 2018 [5] - AMD's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase by 20% in FY25 and 58% in FY26, reaching $6.26 per share [21]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks does not require a large amount of capital, as it is possible to invest in a collection of top AI companies for less than $100 [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF was launched by Wedbush in June, allowing investors to access a diversified portfolio of leading AI companies [3]. - ETFs provide instant investment in multiple companies based on specific themes, offering diversification and reducing risk [4]. - Investing in ETFs is straightforward, similar to buying or selling stocks, and can be easily integrated into an investment strategy [5]. Group 2: Ives ETF Specifics - The Ives ETF selects stocks based on Dan Ives' research, focusing on companies that will benefit from the AI spending cycle, including those providing AI infrastructure and implementing the technology [7]. - The fund's largest holding is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which accounts for just over 5% of the ETF, followed by Micron Technology, Amazon, and Nvidia [8]. - Recent updates to the fund included additions of cybersecurity companies, reflecting the evolving landscape of AI beyond just chips and cloud services [9]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - The Ives ETF is priced around $33 per share, making it accessible for many investors who can invest with just $100 [9]. - The ETF is managed by a leading analyst, ensuring that the fund's composition is updated according to market developments, enhancing its investment potential [9]. - Investing in the Ives fund allows for exposure to a wide variety of AI companies, making it a viable option for retail investors who may lack the resources to build a diversified portfolio independently [10].

Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq up 0.25% [1] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Google falling nearly 1% [2] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.76%, reaching a historical high, with notable gains from companies like Kioxia (over 7%), ASML (over 5%), TSMC (over 4%), and AMD (nearly 2%) [2] - Texas Instruments fell over 2%, while Qualcomm and Marvell Technology dropped over 1% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.6%, with significant drops in stocks like Brain Rejuvenation (over 14%), Tencent Music (nearly 5%), and Kingsoft Cloud (over 4%) [3] - Conversely, companies like Hesai Technology rose over 7%, and Bawang Tea and Canadian Solar saw increases of nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively [3] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased, with spot gold down 0.24% to $4615.5 per ounce and spot silver down 0.79% to $92.4 per ounce [3] - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil falling over 4% to $59.19 per barrel [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $96,000 to $95,511 per coin, marking a 1.99% decrease [4][5] - Over 120,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours due to market volatility [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is at 5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 95% [5] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.8%, with a 78.4% chance of no change [5] - Economic expert analysis suggests that despite potential negative impacts from tariffs, upcoming rate cuts and government policies may improve employment and income growth [6]

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) rose 0.26% to 6,944.47. The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) added 0.25% to 23,530.02, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDEX: ^DJI) climbed 0.60% to 49,442.44 as chip-led gains helped break yesterday's dip. Market movers Semiconductor names rallied after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co's (NYSE:TSM) remarkable results lifted peers, including Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU). Asset manager BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) gained on an ...

Group 1 - TSMC reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, reaching approximately $16 billion, with a gross margin exceeding 60% for the first time. The company expects a 40% revenue growth in Q1 2026, projecting $35.8 billion in revenue and a 37% increase in annual capital expenditure to $56 billion [2] - Goldman Sachs plans to raise $16 billion through the issuance of investment-grade bonds, marking the largest such issuance in Wall Street history. This transaction is part of three bond issuances launched after the quarterly earnings reports from the six major banks [2] - Boston Scientific announced the acquisition of Penumbra for $14.5 billion, with a per-share price of $374, representing a 19% premium over the pre-acquisition price. The deal aims to enhance the company's cardiovascular product portfolio and strengthen its competitive position in the global medical device market [2] Group 2 - SAIC Motor expects a net profit growth of 438%-558% in 2025, driven by significant increases in electric vehicle sales, supply chain cost optimization, and successful overseas market expansion [5] - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.8% to 53.71%, supported by rising prices and volumes of key products like copper and cobalt [6] - Longpan Technology expects procurement transactions with CATL to reach up to 7 billion yuan in 2026, enhancing strategic cooperation in the new energy supply chain [5] Group 3 - Microsoft has raised $12.5 billion for its AI project in collaboration with BlackRock, aiming for a total of $30 billion, and has signed an AI content training agreement with Wikipedia [8] - Tesla is testing a custom 5G modem with Samsung, expecting to supply it in the first half of the year, while projecting a 59% market share in the U.S. electric vehicle market by 2025 [8] - Morgan Stanley reported Q4 2025 net revenue of $17.89 billion, a 10.3% year-on-year increase, with net profit of $4.4 billion, driven by strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [8]

Group 1 - The central bank has implemented a series of measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, and an increase of 500 billion yuan in re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises [3] - The U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15, affecting Nvidia's H200 chip and AMD's MI325X, while excluding semiconductors for data centers and public sectors [3] - TSMC's Q4 2025 earnings exceeded expectations with a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit to approximately $16 billion, and the company raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, nearly 40% higher than previous estimates [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce plans to combine policies to promote consumption and improve people's livelihoods in 2026, focusing on key areas and potential growth points [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that the total social financing scale in 2025 reached 35.6 trillion yuan, with a net cash injection of 1.31 trillion yuan [5] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the need to effectively manage risks in small financial institutions and support the real estate sector through coordinated financing mechanisms [5] Group 3 - The A-share market showed divergence with high-level stocks experiencing significant declines, while the semiconductor industry and precious metals sectors performed well [7] - The Hong Kong stock market faced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.28%, while real estate stocks showed resilience [7] - The first gold ETF in China surpassed 100 billion yuan in circulation, becoming the largest in Asia [8] Group 4 - Major banks in the U.S. conducted over $140 billion in dividends and stock buybacks in 2025, exceeding previous records [21] - Goldman Sachs reported a 3% decline in Q4 2025 revenue to $13.5 billion, primarily due to its credit card business, while Morgan Stanley's revenue rose 10.3% to $17.89 billion [20][21] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax exemptions for foreign institutions investing in government bonds and local government bonds, extending until December 31, 2027 [22]

Group 1: Market Performance - US stock market saw significant gains on January 15, with technology stocks, particularly semiconductor companies, leading the rally. The Dow Jones increased by 0.65%, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.79%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.61% [1] - The semiconductor sector's strength was driven by TSMC's latest earnings report, which showed a 35% year-over-year profit increase, boosting investor confidence in AI themes [1][12] - TSMC's stock surged over 6%, reaching a historic high with a market capitalization exceeding $1.8 trillion, surpassing Broadcom to become the sixth largest company in the US stock market [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included Sandisk Corporation up by 7.07%, AMD up by 6.11%, TSMC up by 5.99%, ASML up by 5.61%, Micron Technology up by 3.24%, and Broadcom up by 2.82% [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced a significant increase of 3% [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The market is also reacting to macroeconomic data, with the US labor market showing resilience. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000, the lowest since November, indicating that layoffs have not significantly increased at the start of the year [12] - New York state manufacturing activity is expanding, and the US dollar is strengthening [12] Group 4: Oil Market Reaction - International oil prices plummeted following President Trump's comments that alleviated market fears regarding potential military action against Iran [14][16] - Trump's statement was interpreted as a signal that the US might delay any military response, impacting Brent crude prices, which remain above last week's low of $60 per barrel [16]

1月16日，美东时间周四，美股三大指数集体收涨，摩根士丹利和高盛在公布强劲的季度业绩后股价大 幅飙升，台积电亮眼财报重振了投资者对人工智能(AI)概念股的信心。 本周早些时候，其他银行公布的业绩表现好坏不一，对金融板块形成拖累。同时，市场也担忧美国总统 特朗普提出的一项为期一年的政策设想，即将信用卡利率上限设定为10%。 不过随着摩根士丹利和高盛远超市场预期的财报发布，金融股一举扭转了近期的颓势，其中摩根士丹利 涨5.8%，高盛涨4.6%。此外，全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德大涨5.9%，其第四季度资产管理规模攀升 至创纪录的14.04万亿美元。 Longbow首席执行官Jake Dollarhide评论称，投资者仍在买入相较科技股而言被低估的股票。"在这个市 场中，一直是不买成长和科技股就出局，而今天，银行和传统工业类股票同样表现不俗。" 全球先进AI芯片生产商台积电公布了强劲的第四季度财报，并给出了乐观的业绩展望，并表示今年资 本支出规模可能提升至560亿美元，以把握AI浪潮带来的机遇，其股价上涨4.4%，同时也带动了英伟 达、博通以及应用材料的涨势，推动半导体指数大幅走高。 Alan B. Lancz & ...