Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP data may show a strong rebound on paper, but it is likely misleading due to underlying weaknesses in consumer spending and business investment, indicating a slowdown in the economy's potential momentum [1][2]. Economic Growth and Trade - The anticipated Q2 GDP growth is projected at 2.4%, reversing the Q1 contraction of 0.5%, with UBS raising its forecast to 2.6% [1][2]. - This growth is primarily driven by a significant contribution from net exports, expected to add up to 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth, following a sharp decline in imports, which are projected to drop over 25% [2][5]. Domestic Demand and Consumer Spending - Domestic demand, which constitutes over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, is showing concerning signs, with consumer spending expected to only achieve a modest recovery in Q2 after stagnation in Q1 [7]. - Business investment in equipment is also anticipated to remain flat or potentially decline, reflecting weak consumer confidence, as indicated by a slight increase in the consumer confidence index to 97.2, still below the average of 104.5 for 2024 [7][8]. Labor Market and Federal Reserve Policy - The labor market's performance is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations that the Fed will maintain its interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% amid mixed economic signals [8]. - Job openings have decreased significantly, with June seeing a reduction of 275,000 positions, bringing the total to 7.44 million, and the hiring rate nearing the lowest point of the current expansion cycle [8][11]. Long-term Economic Challenges - The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy faces structural challenges, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that recent fiscal policies will increase the national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, while only providing a modest GDP boost of 0.5% [11].

人民财讯7月30日电，瑞银集团公布的财务数据显示，其2025年第二季度税前利润为22亿美元，核心业 务的合并后基本税前利润同比增长25%，上半年税前利润为43亿美元，净利润为41亿美元。其中，全球 财富管理业务在今年上半年的净新资产达548亿美元，且得益于主经纪业务余额及收入创纪录，全球金 融市场业务收入同比增长25%，为有史以来最佳第二季度表现。 据悉，瑞银并购瑞信后的整合工作继续按计划推进，目前已有三分之一的瑞士客户账户完成迁移，累计 成本削减达到91亿美元，占约130亿美元预期总成本削减的70%。后续，瑞银将继续执行2025年资本回 报计划，已完成5亿美元的股票回购，并计划在下半年完成回购20亿美元的股票。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group's CEO Sergio Ermotti addressed the significant losses incurred by clients in complex foreign exchange derivatives, stating that the incident does not indicate deeper issues within the bank's governance or controls [1] Group 1: Incident Overview - The losses were attributed to clients' improper use of the products rather than any internal governance failures [1] - The incident has negatively impacted UBS's reputation in its home market of Switzerland, with some clients experiencing losses exceeding their initial investments due to unexpected currency fluctuations [1] - UBS is investigating the responsibilities of six client managers involved in the incident, with some having already left the company [1] Group 2: Client Compensation and Impact - UBS has compensated some affected clients, emphasizing that the issue involved fewer than 200 clients and a limited number of client advisors [1] - Over 3,000 clients are reportedly using these products within a strictly defined asset allocation and risk tolerance framework [1] Group 3: Product Complexity and Client Risk - The Swiss Retail Investors Association (SASV) noted that the Range Target Payoff Forward (RTPF) contracts are complex foreign exchange derivatives that inexperienced investors may struggle to understand [2] - UBS's CFO Todd Tuckner indicated that some Swiss clients held products beyond their standard asset allocation framework or personal risk tolerance, with losses primarily stemming from market volatility triggered by U.S. tariff policies in April [2] - The financial impact of agreements reached with affected clients has been fully reflected in the second-quarter results, although specific amounts were not disclosed [2]

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti says that the steep losses incurred by clients on complex currency derivatives don’t point to deeper problems at the Swiss bank https://t.co/zbwDkB2z9s ...

Company Strategy - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti强调全球多元化业务是瑞银和瑞士的优势 [1] - 瑞银不会通过缩小银行规模来减轻未来瑞士资本要求的影响 [1]

Financial Performance - HSBC announces a $3 billion share buyback [1] - HSBC profits fall short [1] - UBS beats expectations [1] - Santander sees a record second quarter [1] Company Actions - HSBC announces a $3 billion share buyback [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total group profit before tax in Q2 2025 was $2.7 billion, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year, with core businesses growing their combined pretax profits by 25% [19] - Group revenues increased by 4% to $11.5 billion, with an 8% increase across core franchises, while operating expenses decreased by 3% to $8.7 billion [20] - Reported EPS was $0.72, with a return on CET1 capital of 15.3% and a cost income ratio of 75.4% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Wealth Management (GWM) pretax profit was $1.4 billion, up 24%, with revenue growth outpacing expenses by five percentage points [27] - Investment Bank delivered a profit before tax of $526 million, up 28%, with revenues increasing by 13% to $2.8 billion, driven by global markets [40] - Asset Management profit before tax was $216 million, down 5% year on year, but up 8% excluding a prior year gain [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Invested assets reached $6.6 trillion, with strong client activity across all regions [5] - In The Americas, GWM profit growth was 48%, while EMEA saw a 30% increase in profit before tax [28] - APAC profits grew by 12%, supported by sustained sales momentum across net new assets, mandates, and deposits [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by 2026, with significant progress made in migrating client accounts [9] - Continued investment in The Americas and leveraging its position as the number one wealth manager in APAC are key strategic focuses [11] - The company is committed to enhancing client service through investments in infrastructure and AI [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted ongoing market uncertainties affecting client execution of strategic plans, but expressed optimism about capital deployment once macroeconomic conditions stabilize [8] - The company expects to maintain a CET1 capital ratio of around 15% and a cost income ratio of less than 70% by 2026 [17] - Management highlighted the importance of regulatory developments in Switzerland and their potential impact on the business model [12] Other Important Information - The company recorded a litigation reserve net release of $427 million related to Credit Suisse's legacy US cross-border business [20] - The CET1 capital ratio was 14.4%, with a strong capital position allowing for a double-digit increase in dividends and share buyback plans [10] - The company has reduced its non-core risk-weighted assets by over 80% since 2023, freeing up significant capital [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on the remaining $8 billion accrual at UBS AG - Management indicated that the expectation is for the $8 billion accrual to be upstreamed, with a target equity double leverage ratio of around 100% by the end of the year [50][51] Question: Update on Wealth Management in the US and adviser incentives - Management confirmed progress in improving the pretax margin in Wealth Management, with a focus on technology investment and adviser retention strategies [51][52] Question: Clarification on output floor and RWAs - Management acknowledged ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of the output floor on RWAs, emphasizing that it is too early to predict the outcomes [58] Question: Expectations regarding capital proposals and legislative clarity - Management stated that clarity on capital proposals is uncertain, and they will not engage in mitigation strategies until the final rules are known [62][70] Question: Client behavior in Asia and revenue softness - Management noted strong flows in Asia but acknowledged softer revenues, indicating a need to understand client behavior in the current environment [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total group profit before tax in Q2 2025 was $2.7 billion, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year, with core businesses growing their combined pretax profits by 25% [18] - Group revenues increased by 4% to $11.5 billion, with core franchises up by 8%, while operating expenses decreased by 3% to $8.7 billion [19] - Reported EPS was $0.72, with a return on CET1 capital of 15.3% and a cost income ratio of 75.4% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Wealth Management (GWM) pretax profit was $1.4 billion, up 24%, with a cost income ratio improvement of almost four percentage points to 77% [26] - Investment Bank delivered a pretax profit of $526 million, up 28%, with revenues increasing by 13% to $2.8 billion, driven by global markets [39] - Asset Management profit before tax was $216 million, down 5% year on year, but up 8% excluding a prior year gain [37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In The Americas, GWM profit growth was 48%, while EMEA saw a 30% increase, and APAC grew profits by 12% [27] - The Investment Bank's banking revenues decreased by 22% to $521 million due to macroeconomic uncertainties [40] - Equities revenues were 20% higher than the prior year quarter, driven by a record Q2 across cash equities and equity derivatives [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by 2026, with significant progress made in migrating client accounts [7][9] - Continued investment in technology and infrastructure is prioritized to enhance client service and support employees [10] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong capital position while navigating regulatory changes in Switzerland [12][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in client readiness to deploy capital as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [6] - The ongoing debate on regulation in Switzerland is seen as a critical factor for the company's future [11] - The company maintains its 2026 targets of a return on CET1 capital of around 15% and a cost income ratio of less than 70% [15] Other Important Information - The company recorded a litigation reserve net release of $427 million related to Credit Suisse's legacy business [19] - The CET1 capital ratio was 14.4%, with a strong capital position supporting ongoing capital return objectives [8][24] - The company has reduced its overall cost base by around 11% compared to 2022, with a cumulative total of $9.1 billion in cost savings since 2022 [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on the remaining $8 billion accrual at UBS AG and wealth management advisor numbers - Management indicated that the $8 billion accrual is expected to be upstreamed, and the equity double leverage ratio is projected to be sub 105% by year-end [49] - Regarding wealth management, management noted progress in improving pretax margins and highlighted the attractiveness of their platform for advisors [50][51] Question: Inquiry about the output floor and FX derivatives impact - Management acknowledged ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of the output floor and confirmed that a small number of clients experienced losses related to FX derivatives [55][58] Question: Expectations on capital proposals and clarity on distribution ambitions - Management stated that clarity on capital proposals is uncertain and will depend on the legislative process, with no immediate actions planned until final rules are known [61][70] Question: Clarification on double leverage and Asian client behavior - Management confirmed expectations for the double leverage ratio and noted sustained client momentum in APAC, despite some tactical repositioning of portfolios [83]

Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS reported a strong Q2 2025 performance with net profit doubling to approximately $2.4 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations [1] - The net profit surpassed the market consensus estimate of $2.045 billion and was well above last year's figure of $1.136 billion [1] - The core driver of this performance was the investment banking division's global markets business, which saw a revenue increase of 25% to $2.3 billion [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Increased trading activity was attributed to market volatility, particularly due to market fluctuations triggered by U.S. President Trump's tariff policies [1] - Wealth management trading income also grew by 12% during the quarter [1] - Despite the opportunities presented by market volatility, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti noted that clients remain in a "wait-and-see" mode and have not yet reached a high level of activity [1] Group 3: Regulatory Challenges - UBS is facing a stricter regulatory environment following its acquisition of Credit Suisse, with one-third of Credit Suisse's client accounts already migrated [2] - The Swiss government has proposed stricter rules for UBS, the only remaining "too big to fail" bank in Switzerland, which UBS strongly disagrees with [2] - UBS estimates that the proposed regulations could require an additional $24 billion in common equity tier 1 capital [2]

Strategy & Capital Requirements - UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti states the bank will not be downsized to lessen the impact of future Swiss capital requirements [1]