Zhao表示，上个月40年期日本国债收益率飙升至3.675%，创下该期限债券2007年问世以来的最高水平，这 是日本财务省停止发行较长期债券的最新理由。由于日本老龄化社会的人口结构变化，较长期债券的需求 正在减少。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司全球主权和外汇业务主管Kevin Zhao表示，为了平息日本政府债券市 场的波动，日本政府应该停止发行期限超过30年的债券。 上周标售的40年期日本国债需求降至去年7月以来最低。市场目前正准备迎接周四标售的30年期日本国债。 Zhao认为，为了缓解长期债券的压力，继1月份加息之后，日本央行应该在7月的政策会议上加息。这将向 市场发出信号，表明加息可能每六个月进行一次。他补充称，市场将受益于这样的指引，收益率曲线将因 此趋于平缓。 他表示："日本短期国债收益率上升的主要驱动因素之一是日本央行在加息方面过于谨慎。"他补充说，7 月 份加息将使收益率曲线趋于平缓，30年期日本国债收益率将从3%降至"2.25%-2.5%左右"，而40年期收益率 将下滑至3%。 Zhao表示，日本的寿险公司和养老基金不再需要像过去几十年那样囤积30年或更长期限的债券，因为日本 婴儿潮一代 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates a potential pause in production increases and marginally lower prices in the second half of 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook [5][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by an additional 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The total production increase from OPEC+ members will reach 1.37 million barrels per day (Mb/d) out of the intended 2.5 Mb/d over 18 months, achieving the production level initially targeted for early 2026 [5] - The market is expected to experience a surplus of 0.3 Mb/d in the third quarter of 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the additional production [3] Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ members are set to add 411 kb/d in July, which was higher than the previously forecasted 138 kb/d [2] - The group has already implemented 1.37 Mb/d of the planned 2.5 Mb/d increase, indicating a significant ramp-up in production [5] Market Dynamics - The anticipated surplus in oil supply is projected to be 0.3 Mb/d in Q3 2025 and 0.7 Mb/d in Q4 2025, which could lead to downward pressure on prices if production increases continue [3] - The report suggests that demand will peak between March and August, with a decline expected in September, further influencing price dynamics [5] Price Forecast - The base case scenario anticipates a pause in production increases and a slight decrease in oil prices to approximately $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025 [5]

智通财经6月4日电，香港交易所信息显示，瑞银集团（UBS)在东风汽车股份的持股比例于05月29日从 4.63%升至5.02%，平均股价为4.4840港元。 ...

Group 1 - Miniso has reportedly hired JPMorgan and UBS to assist its subsidiary TOP TOY in an IPO in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - Miniso has reportedly hired JPMorgan and UBS to assist with the IPO of its subsidiary TOP TOY in Hong Kong [1]

美债收益率若升至5%，美股是否必然承压？ 据追风交易台消息，瑞银（UBS）最新报告指出，关键不在于美债收益率本身，而在于它如何上涨。"收益率上行的路径"是由经济增长驱动还是 由风险溢价（term premium）推动，其对股市的影响截然不同。 报告强调，若由经济增长和企业盈利预期改善推动，标普500有望上行至6200点；若由风险溢价上升（如财政赤字、政策不确定性）驱动，则对美 股尤其是防御板块构成压力。 收益率的变动路径比最终数值更重要 如果谈论美国债券收益率升至5%或更高，那么达到目标的过程将至关重要。 瑞银报告称，10年期美债收益率是全球无风险利率的重要锚，也是股市现金流折现的核心参数。当这一利率上升时，未来现金流的现值下降，从 而对股票估值构成压力。然而，市场并非静态调整，收益率的变化通常与其他变量同步发生，例如企业盈利预期、风险溢价和宏观经济环境。 "收益率从来不是孤岛"，瑞银策略师团队强调。10年期美债收益率的变动通常与股票估值的两大核心要素——风险溢价和盈利预期——同步波 动。真正决定股市走向的，是推动收益率上行的主导因素。 | Factors of investment returns | Ma ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds have rapidly increased their purchases of global stocks at the fastest pace in nearly six months, indicating a greater willingness to take on specific risks [1][3][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a cumulative increase of over 6% in May, marking its largest monthly gain since November 2023 and the best performance for May since 1990 [4][8] - The technology sector has attracted significant attention from hedge funds, with North American tech companies being the most favored, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing and technology hardware [5][6] Group 2 - Major Wall Street institutions have revised their outlook for the U.S. stock market, with Deutsche Bank raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6150 to 6550 points, citing reduced profit drag from tariff policies [8][9] - Other institutions, including RBC Capital Markets and UBS, have also increased their S&P 500 targets, reflecting renewed confidence in the market [9] - The U.S. Treasury market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 2 percentage point increase in the proportion of bullish positions among investors, reaching the highest level in two weeks [10] Group 3 - The OECD has downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast for this year to 1.6%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from its previous estimate, while also raising inflation expectations to 3.2% [11]

Economic Indicators - UBS has identified that recession risks in the United States are increasing, with three main indicators showing concerning trends: real-world data, credit conditions, and the yield curve [1][2] - The probability of a US recession based on real-world data has risen to 46%, an increase of 12 percentage points in just one month, indicating broad-based weakness in key economic areas [4][3] - The yield curve currently suggests an 18% probability of recession, which, while lower than previous extremes, still represents a notable increase [5] Credit Conditions - UBS's credit-based model indicates a 48% probability of recession, marking the highest level since the pandemic, reflecting shifts in financial ratios and lending conditions [6] Composite Recession Risk - The composite gauge from UBS places the overall US recession risk at 37%, up from 26% in December, approaching levels historically associated with actual downturns [7] - Despite these indicators, UBS does not currently predict a recession, noting that the economy began the year on stable footing, but warns that further data deterioration could reignite recession discussions [7] Global Implications - The US consumer remains a critical driver of global demand, and any retrenchment in consumer spending or business investment could negatively impact the developed world [9] - The situation is being closely monitored, with upcoming data in May and June expected to influence market narratives significantly [10]

香港交易所信息显示， 瑞银集团（UBS)在 美的集团的持股比例于05月28日从5.05%降至4.95%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is primarily a result of market trading and uncertainty, leading investors to reduce their overweight positions in US assets [1][3] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Reactions - The dollar index has fallen below 100, with Asian currencies appreciating significantly [1] - The so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" has been cited as a catalyst for the weak dollar, suggesting that the dollar has been overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency [1][3] - UBS's chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, emphasizes that the dollar's weakness is not a deliberate policy but a byproduct of market uncertainty [3] Group 2: US Debt Concerns - Concerns regarding US debt remain, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields nearing 4.5% and 5% respectively [4] - The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to high government financing needs and market worries about increasing debt supply [4][5] - Despite rising yields, foreign investors have not reduced their holdings, while local investors are decreasing their positions [5] Group 3: Tax Policy and Fiscal Impact - The new tax policy proposed by Trump is not expected to significantly increase the fiscal deficit, as it is characterized as a "illusionary expansion" rather than a true tax cut [8] - The tax plan aims to extend personal tax cuts and increase standard deductions, while also including significant spending cuts [8] - The plan is projected to reduce taxes by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, but it also includes substantial cuts to programs like Medicaid [8] Group 4: Trade Negotiation Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are critical, with both sides facing significant misalignment in their demands [9] - The US aims to increase tariff revenues, which reached a record high in April, while the EU seeks to lower tariffs to zero [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs could lead to higher inflation, with estimates suggesting core PCE inflation could rise to 3.5% under current tariff structures [10]