Core Insights - Global family offices are increasingly interested in investing in China, with a notable shift in institutional funds returning to the Chinese market through channels like QFII this year [1] - In the emerging markets, China and India are the top choices for global family offices over the next 12 months, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, with 39% of family offices planning to increase investments in mainland China [1][1] Group 1 - Family offices are showing heightened investment interest in China [1] - Institutional funds that were previously underweight in China are now returning to the market [1] - 39% of family offices plan to increase their investments in mainland China within the next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The abrupt reversal of Trump's copper tariff policy, from a proposed 50% tariff to almost complete exemption, has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper prices falling over 20% and spot premiums nearing zero [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent tariff exemption exceeded market expectations, leading to a reversal of the "U.S. copper tariff trade" and creating downward pressure on prices [2][3]. - The cancellation of tariffs is viewed as the most negative scenario for copper prices, as it forces the liquidation of previously established arbitrage positions [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory Concerns - The U.S. holds a significant surplus of copper inventory, estimated at 500,000 to 700,000 tons, which will take 6-12 months to digest, further pressuring copper prices [2][4]. - The U.S. accounts for less than 10% of global copper demand, yet the tariff expectations have distorted global copper trade, leading to increased imports and subsequent overstocking [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price differential between COMEX and LME copper had previously attracted significant metal inflows into the U.S., but this differential has now collapsed due to the tariff exemption [3][4]. - U.S. refined copper imports surged by approximately 400,000 tons (+130%) year-on-year in the first five months of the year, contributing to the accumulation of excess inventory [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts predict that the Swiss franc (CHF) will likely depreciate against the euro (EUR) due to investors seeking more favorable yields in the eurozone and an improved growth outlook for next year [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Investors are shifting towards the eurozone for better yields, which is expected to put downward pressure on the Swiss franc [1] - The European Central Bank's cautious stance on interest rate cuts during its recent meeting supports the view that the CHF's strength will be limited by favorable interest rate differentials for the euro [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - There is limited news regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and Switzerland, but any progress in this area would be significant for the Swiss franc [1] Group 3: Forecast - UBS forecasts that the EUR/CHF exchange rate will reach 0.94 by the end of the year [1]

金十数据7月31日讯，瑞银全球财富管理分析师在一份报告中说，英镑兑日元似乎将走弱。"随着日本参 议院选举的通过和美日贸易协议的达成，日元的抛售压力应该会进一步减弱。"对英镑而言，市场对英 国降息的预期较为保守。他们表示，市场可能会进一步定价降息，特别是在弱于预期的数据之后，英国 央行为了提振经济增长或采取更激进的政策宽松倾向。瑞银建议做空英镑兑日元，目标为192.5，止损 位为200.5。 瑞银：英镑兑日元料将走软 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the current strength of the US dollar is likely a temporary adjustment and does not indicate a reversal of its recent weakening trend [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Investors may have closed short positions on the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates were maintained [1] - The expectation is that once the Federal Reserve signals a potential restart of interest rate cuts in the coming months, the dollar's weakening trend will re-emerge [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - UBS anticipates that US economic growth will further slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - The firm projects that the euro will rise to 1.20 against the dollar later this year [1]

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for stable and flexible economic policies, focusing on active fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2][4] - The government plans to allocate approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies, with local governments required to open applications by August 31 [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [3] - The U.S. economy showed strong performance with a second-quarter GDP growth of 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations [13] Group 3 - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17% while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.77% and 1.62% respectively [6] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.36%, with significant declines in the new energy vehicle sector [6] Group 4 - Foxconn announced a strategic alliance with TECO Electric & Machinery through a share swap to enter the trillion-yuan AI data center market [7] - New Oriental's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter reached $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, but net profit decreased by 73.7% [7] Group 5 - Major announcements from listed companies included CATL reporting a 33.02% increase in net profit for the first half of the year and a proposed dividend of 10.07 yuan per share [9] - XGIMI projected a staggering 2062% increase in net profit for the first half of the year [9] Group 6 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported a 20.5% decline in marriage registrations for 2024, with a marriage rate of 4.3‰ [4] - The divorce rate was reported at 2.5‰, with 3.513 million divorce registrations [4] Group 7 - The National Health Commission called for enhanced risk assessment and preventive measures against the Chikungunya virus [5] - Shanghai's housing authority plans to initiate a comprehensive urban renewal project by 2026 [5]

Key Takeaways UBS reported 2Q25 net profit of $2.39B, more than doubling from the prior year's $1.14B.Strong profits in the Wealth, Asset Management and Investment Bank units drove 1.7% revenue growth.UBS cut expenses by 5.6% and achieved 70% of the targeted $13B in cost savings from the Credit Suisse merger.UBS Group AG (UBS) reported a second-quarter 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders of $2.39 billion compared with $1.14 billion in the prior-year quarter.Results were driven by the strong perform ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS economists predict that the Bank of England may raise its inflation and economic growth forecasts for the UK during the August meeting, following higher-than-expected inflation data in June [1] Group 1: Inflation Forecasts - The Bank of England is likely to adjust its inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 3.5% due to recent inflation data [1] - The adjustment reflects a response to the economic conditions and inflation trends observed in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Economic Growth Predictions - Following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter, the growth forecast for the UK may also see a slight upward revision [1] - UBS anticipates that assumptions regarding energy prices and the effective exchange rate of the pound will be adjusted, while the policy interest rate assumption is expected to remain largely unchanged [1]

UBS (UBS) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.72 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.7 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.34 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +2.86%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this bank would post earnings of $0.42 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.51, delivering a surprise of +21.43%.Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed co ...

Financial Performance - The total group profit before tax for Q2 2025 was $2.7 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, with core businesses growing combined pre-tax profits by 25%[28] - Group revenues increased by 4% to $11.5 billion, with core franchises up by 8%, while operating expenses decreased by 3% to $8.7 billion[28] - The reported EPS for Q2 was $0.72, with a return on CET1 capital of 15.3% and a cost/income ratio of 75.4%[29] - Global Wealth Management (GWM) reported a pre-tax profit of $1.4 billion, up 24% year-over-year, with a cost/income ratio improvement of almost 4 percentage points to 77%[10] - The Investment Bank delivered a profit before tax of $526 million, up 28%, with revenues increasing by 13% to $2.8 billion[70] - Asset Management's profit before tax was $216 million, down 5% year-over-year, but up 8% excluding prior year gains[65] - Non-core and Legacy's pre-tax profit was $1 million, with negative revenues of $83 million, while operating expenses were down 46% year-over-year excluding litigation[76] Client Activity and Growth - Invested assets reached $6.6 trillion, with significant client activity across all regions, and $18 billion in client commitments attracted year-to-date in the Unified Global Alternatives unit[7][8] - The company granted or renewed 40 billion Swiss francs in loans during the quarter, supporting client activity globally[9] - GWM's net new assets reached $55 billion year-to-date, with $23 billion generated in the second quarter, reflecting a growth rate of 2.2%[47] - Recurring net fee income grew by 8% to $3.4 billion, supported by over $60 billion in net new fee-generating assets over the past 12 months[53] - Transaction-based income increased by 11% to $1.2 billion, with revenues from investment funds and cash equity offerings rising by 27% and 17%, respectively[54] - Profit growth in the Americas was 48%, with a pre-tax margin of 12.4%, while EMEA saw a 30% increase in profit before tax[46] Cost Management and Efficiency - The company achieved 70% of its gross cost save ambition, totaling $9.1 billion in cumulative savings since the end of 2022[33] - UBS has achieved approximately 70% of its cost reduction target, with a remaining goal of $4 billion in gross cost savings, split between technology and personnel[116] - The company is focused on maintaining an underlying cost income ratio below 70% as part of its efficiency initiatives[116] Capital and Regulatory Position - The CET1 capital ratio at the end of June was 14.4%, with a tangible equity increase to $82 billion, driven by net profit and FX translation[13][37] - The company expects a return on CET1 capital of around 15% and a cost/income ratio of less than 70% for 2026, maintaining a strong capital position amid regulatory discussions[24][39] - The average capital requirement is 10.9%, compared to a proposed minimum of 19%, highlighting the regulatory challenges ahead[93] - UBS is focused on understanding the implications of capital proposals and will not engage in mitigation actions until clarity is achieved[100] - The parent bank CET1 ratio is expected to remain above the target range of 12.5% to 13% due to FX volatility impacting leverage ratios[107][109] Integration of Credit Suisse - The integration of Credit Suisse is on track, with 400,000 client accounts migrated from the Credit Suisse platform in Switzerland and plans to migrate an additional 500,000 by year-end[12] - UBS recognizes the operational challenges and risks associated with the integration of Credit Suisse, which is expected to continue through 2026[120] - UBS plans to repatriate additional capital as a result of integrating Credit Suisse, contributing to a lower capital ratio by the end of 2023[98] Market and Economic Outlook - The company expects GWM's net interest income to decrease by a low single-digit percentage compared to 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges in the interest rate environment[57] - UBS's US operations are leveraging international capabilities to enhance service offerings and create synergies within Wealth Management[112] - The company is cautious about forward-looking statements due to various risks, including geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes[120] Client Sentiment and Recruitment - Client momentum in Asia is strong, with robust activity despite some tactical repositioning and a wait-and-see sentiment due to macro uncertainties[105] - 90% of financial advisors (FAs) are up in T12 production, with increased recruitment and retention efforts at UBS[85] - UBS aims to achieve mid-teens return on pretax profit margins in Wealth Management, indicating a focus on profitability improvement[111]