Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) has faced significant market backlash due to its failure to meet growth expectations, which has impacted its reputation among growth investors [1] Company Overview - Upstart was previously regarded as a promising growth company due to its innovative approach in the financial technology sector [1] Market Reaction - The market is known for its harsh treatment of companies that do not fulfill their growth promises, as evidenced by the situation with Upstart [1]

Explore the exciting world of Upstart Holdings (UPST -1.15%) with our expert analysts in this Motley Fool Scoreboard episode. Check out the video below to gain valuable insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities!*Stock prices used were the prices of March 19, 2025. The video was published on April 28, 2025. ...

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 20% over the past month, which raises questions about whether investors should hold or exit the stock. Despite near-term challenges, the long-term growth potential of Upstart remains strong, suggesting that holding the stock may be advisable [1][8]. Market Context - The recent decline in Upstart Holdings' stock is attributed more to broader market weaknesses rather than specific company issues. A tech sell-off driven by fears of a global economic slowdown and trade tensions has negatively impacted high-growth stocks, including UPST [2]. Valuation Insights - Upstart Holdings is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) multiple of 3.73X, which is higher than the industry average of 3.2X. Compared to major fintech competitors, UPST trades at a premium to LendingClub (1.19X) and Enova International (0.76X), but at a discount to SoFi Technologies (3.79X) [3][6]. Stock Performance - Shares of Upstart Holdings have decreased by 54.4% from their 52-week high of $96.43, reached on February 13. Year-to-date, the stock is down 28.6%, contrasting with a 36.7% gain at its peak in February [7]. Operational Performance - Upstart Holdings reported a 56% year-over-year increase in net revenues, reaching $219 million, and a 30% year-over-year increase in revenue from fees, totaling $199 million. Loan origination volume surged by 89% year-over-year, with 246,000 loan transactions, including 162,000 new borrowers [15][16]. Technological Advancements - The company utilizes AI and machine learning to assess creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores. In Q4 2024, 91% of loans were fully automated, enhancing efficiency and competitiveness in the personal lending market [9][10]. The introduction of advanced AI models, such as Model 19, has improved risk assessment and loan performance predictions [12][13]. Future Growth Potential - Upstart Holdings is expanding into auto lending, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar relief loans, with significant growth reported in these areas. Auto originations and HELOCs both grew by 60%, while small-dollar loans surged by 115% quarter-over-quarter [11]. Financial Strength - The company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $39 million and is close to GAAP profitability, with a net loss of only $2.8 million. The non-GAAP EPS improved to 29 cents, a significant turnaround from previous losses [17][18]. Revenue growth guidance for 2025 indicates a continued upward trajectory, with a projected 59% increase [19].

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Companies - The Trump administration imposed a sweeping 10% tariff on most imported goods to encourage domestic manufacturing, with reciprocal tariffs on hold pending negotiations, except for those on Chinese imports [2] - The S&P 500 index has declined by 16% from its recent all-time high due to rising prices from tariffs, but this sell-off has created investment opportunities as not all companies are directly impacted [4] Group 2: Upstart Holdings - Upstart utilizes an AI-powered algorithm to analyze over 2,500 variables for determining borrower creditworthiness, significantly improving upon traditional methods that rely on fewer variables [6] - The company reported a revenue of $636 million in 2024, marking a 24% increase from the previous year, following a significant rise in unsecured personal loans originated in Q4 due to interest rate cuts [10] - Analysts forecast Upstart's revenue to reach $1.01 billion in 2025, representing a 58% increase compared to 2024, with the first-quarter results expected on May 6 [11] Group 3: Uber Technologies - Uber generated $162.7 billion in gross bookings in 2024, encompassing rides, food deliveries, and freight services, positioning itself as a leader in the mobility sector [15] - The company is investing in autonomous mobility, which could significantly reduce costs associated with human drivers, thereby increasing revenue and earnings potential [16] - Uber's partnerships with companies like Waymo and Nvidia aim to accelerate the commercialization of autonomous technologies, potentially creating substantial value for investors [18][19]

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed the most recent trading day at $38.99, moving +1.14% from the previous trading session. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.81%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 1.56%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 2.06%.The the stock of company has fallen by 16.76% in the past month, lagging the Finance sector's loss of 4.82% and the S&P 500's loss of 6.14%.Market participants will be closely following the financial results of Upstart Holding ...

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool. ...

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings (UPST) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) represent two distinct business models within the fintech industry, with UPST focusing on AI-driven credit assessment and automation, while SOFI offers a diversified digital financial platform. The analysis suggests that UPST may present a smarter investment opportunity compared to SOFI due to its higher growth potential and favorable valuation metrics. Upstart Holdings - Upstart Holdings utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to evaluate creditworthiness, moving beyond traditional FICO scores to include various factors such as education and employment history [1] - In Q4 2024, 91% of Upstart's loans were fully automated, leading to reduced costs and faster approvals, enhancing its competitive edge in personal lending [2] - The company is expanding into auto lending, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), and small-dollar loans, with auto originations and HELOCs both increasing by 60%, and small-dollar loans surging by 115% quarter over quarter [3] - For Q4 2024, Upstart reported a 56% year-over-year revenue increase and achieved a non-GAAP profit of $0.29 per share, a turnaround from a loss of $0.11 in the previous year [4] - Upstart's revenue growth guidance indicates a 57% increase for Q1 and 59% for the full year of 2025, suggesting continued momentum [4] SoFi Technologies - SoFi Technologies operates as a comprehensive digital financial platform, offering banking, investing, lending, and personal finance tools, supported by a national bank charter for low-cost loan funding [5] - In Q4 2024, SoFi added 785,000 new members, the highest in its history, and improved product-per-user metrics through effective cross-selling strategies [6] - The company is exploring enhancements in cryptocurrency services, which aligns with current regulatory trends and ambitions to position the U.S. as a leader in the crypto space [7] - SoFi's Q4 2024 revenue and non-GAAP EPS grew by 19% and 150% year-over-year, respectively, but its growth rates lag behind those of Upstart [8] - For the full year of 2025, SoFi expects a revenue growth of only 24%, significantly lower than Upstart's forecast [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past 12 months, Upstart Holdings shares have returned 46.9%, outperforming SoFi Technologies' 25.7% gain [9] - Both companies have similar forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) multiples around 3X, but Upstart's P/S ratio of 3.08 is below its one-year median of 5.26, indicating potential for upside [10] - SoFi's P/S multiple of 3.03 is in line with its historical average, suggesting that much of its expected growth is already reflected in its stock price [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart Holdings indicates a 59.3% year-over-year increase in sales and a staggering 785% increase in EPS for 2025, with positive trends in EPS estimates over the past 60 days [12] - In contrast, SoFi Technologies' 2025 sales and EPS are expected to grow by 23.9% and 66.7%, respectively, with recent downward trends in EPS estimates [15] Conclusion - Upstart Holdings is positioned for higher growth due to its innovative AI-driven models and favorable valuation metrics, while SoFi Technologies, despite its strengths, shows slower growth potential [16][17]

Company: Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) - UPST shares increased by 8.6% to close at $37.78, following a significant sell-off in the previous week, attributed to a recovery in the broader stock market [1] - The stock experienced a 35.2% loss over the past four weeks, indicating volatility [1] - The upcoming quarterly earnings are expected to be $0.19 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 161.3%, with revenues projected at $200.74 million, up 57.1% from the previous year [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for UPST has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting that the stock's price movement may not sustain without earnings estimate revisions [3] - UPST currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating positive market sentiment [3] Company: NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) - NRDS shares closed 3.1% lower at $8.01, with a return of -12% over the past month [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for NRDS is -$0.10, representing a drastic change of -1100% from the previous year [4] - NRDS currently has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [4] Industry: Financial - Miscellaneous Services - Both Upstart and NerdWallet belong to the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, highlighting the competitive landscape within this sector [3]

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Tech stocks have been hit hard in recent weeks amidst tariff and recession fears. I had previously viewed Upstart ( UPST ) as simply benefitting another meme rally, but the company’s strong execution (and secondarily the stock’s pullback) have ledJulian is the leader of the investing group Best Of Breed Growth Stocks where he only shares positions in stocks which have a large probability of delivering large alpha relative to the S&P 500. He also combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation hurd ...