证券研究报告·海外公司点评·资讯科技器材(HS) 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 发布小米 SU7：“人车家”生态完成闭环，协 2024 年 04月 01日 同效应值得期待 证券分析师 张良卫 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 李博韦 营业总收入（百万元） 280,044 270,970 310,777 344,039 334,074 执业证书：S0600123070070 同比 -14.78% -3.24% 14.69% 10.70% -2.90% libw@dwzq.com.cn 归母净利润（百万元） 2,474 17,475 15,938 18,905 21,169 同比 -87.21% 606.34% -8.79% 18.61% 11.98% 股价走势 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） 0.10 0.70 0.64 0.76 0.85 小米集团-W 恒生指数 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） 150.66 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a new SOTP-based target price of HK$22.19, reflecting a 49% upside from the current price of HK$14.94 [1][15]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 Series electric sedans launched on March 28, 2024, with competitive pricing and strong initial pre-orders, indicating positive market reception. The pre-orders reached 50,000 units in the first 27 minutes and 89,000 units within 24 hours, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's unique "Human-car-home" ecosystem as a major competitive advantage over other EV brands, which is expected to drive future growth [1][2]. - Adjustments to revenue forecasts reflect expected EV shipments of 80,000, 150,000, and 200,000 units for FY24, FY25, and FY26, respectively [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB 321,495 million, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6%. The adjusted net profit is estimated at RMB 17,321 million, reflecting a decline of 10.1% year-on-year [4][10]. - The report indicates a gross margin of 19.0% for FY24, with an operating margin of 4.8% and an adjusted net margin of 5.4% [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is projected at RMB 0.70, with subsequent years showing gradual increases [4][10]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning different price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples to Xiaomi's various business segments: 13x for smartphones, 10x for AIoT, and 15x for internet services. The EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E price-to-sales (P/S) [15][16]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at RMB 508,115 million, leading to a target price of HK$22.19 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's Q4 2023 adjusted net profit exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 73.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The adjusted net profit for Q4 was 4.9 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 236% [1] - The company is focusing on its automotive segment, with impressive pre-orders for its newly launched cars, indicating strong market interest and potential for future revenue growth [1] - The strategic upgrade to a "full ecosystem" approach aims to enhance user experience and profitability through IoT products and value-added services [1] Financial Summary - For the full year 2023, Xiaomi Group reported total revenue of 271 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while adjusted net profit was 19.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126% [2][9] - The smartphone segment showed signs of recovery, with Q4 2023 smartphone shipments reaching approximately 40.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 320 billion yuan, 366.4 billion yuan, and 415.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 13% [1][2]

Group 1 - Xiaomi's automotive division has generated significant public interest, with unprecedented foot traffic in its offline stores, surpassing that of competitors like Huawei [1] - The company has positioned its SU7 model as a strong competitor in the electric vehicle market, claiming it has no rivals under 500,000 yuan [4] - A recent incident involving a test drive of the SU7 resulted in a crash, leading to discussions about the vehicle's safety features and performance [6][14] Group 2 - There have been complaints from consumers regarding the inability to refund a 5,000 yuan deposit, which contradicts Xiaomi's stated policy of a 7-day no-reason refund [23][24] - Xiaomi clarified that once a configuration is locked, the deposit becomes non-refundable, which has caused confusion among customers due to ambiguous messaging in their app [27][28] - Despite the controversies, Xiaomi's pre-order numbers for the SU7 were impressive, with 88,898 units reserved within 24 hours, setting a record for the Chinese automotive market [29][30]

3月28日晚，小米汽车的第一款车小米SU7上市，公众最为关心的价格也同时公布：总计分3款配置，售价分别为21.59万元、24.59万元和29.99万元。这个价格和此前市场预计的20万-30万元的价格区间相符，入门款价格大致符合预期，而最高配的价格则比预期稍低，没有超过30万元关口。 雷军在发布会后的采访中表示，入门款原计划的价格是22.9万元，在发布会前一天才敲定最终价格，就是要比特斯拉Model3便宜3万元，而顶配车型原计划定价是35万元，后来在市场压力下调到了现在的价位，而现在这个价格是亏钱的。 从小米汽车亮相到发布会之前，小米一直在用“有点贵”进行小米汽车的价格预期管理，而最终售价和市场上的相似竞品车型大致相当，特别是高配车型，显著低于预期，这成功激发了消费者的订购热情。 根据小米汽车官方微博发布的数据，4分钟订单破万，7分钟破两万，27分钟破五万，大幅度刷新了新车订单纪录，火爆的订单代表小米汽车已经迈出了成功的第一步。小米汽车在上市发布前的答卷几乎是完美的，营销水平超越所有车企同行，包括蔚来、小鹏、理想这些深谙互联网营销之道的先行者，让市场见识到了顶级互联网大佬做汽车营销的威力。 订单火爆之后，小米汽 ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi Auto has announced the selection of 10 cities for the establishment of sales and service outlets based on user feedback from 20 candidate cities and its store layout strategy [1] Group 1 - The selected cities for new store openings include Jinan, Changzhou, Nantong, Jinhua, Nanning, Changchun, Guiyang, Zhuhai, Quanzhou, and Xiantao [1] - These 10 cities are expected to open their outlets within the current year, with plans for further expansion into additional cities in the future [1] - The chairman of Xiaomi Group, Lei Jun, hails from Xiantao, Hubei Province, which is one of the selected cities [1]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 has achieved over 88,898 pre-orders within 24 hours of its launch, indicating strong market demand [1] - The company has extended the deposit refund period to 7 days to enhance customer experience and allow for more test drive opportunities [3] Group 1: Pre-order and Refund Policy - The standard deposit refund period in the industry is typically 1-3 days, but Xiaomi has extended it to 7 days for the SU7 to accommodate high demand for test drives [3] - Customers can lock their configurations, but once locked, the deposit becomes non-refundable [5] - As of March 29, Xiaomi's customer service received 469 inquiries regarding order cancellations and configuration changes [5] Group 2: Production and Delivery - The first deliveries of the SU7 will begin on April 3 for the founder's edition, with other versions starting deliveries at the end of April and May [7] - Xiaomi is actively working to increase production capacity to meet the high demand for the SU7 [7] Group 3: Financial Services and Promotions - Customers who order the SU7 before June 30, 2024, can benefit from a financing plan with a minimum interest rate of 2.5% and a minimum down payment of 15% [8] - The purchase rights package is only available for orders placed before April 30 [11] Group 4: Vehicle Features and Performance - The SU7 has been designed for low energy consumption, with the standard version achieving a minimum energy consumption of 12.3 kWh/100 km [13] - In real-world testing, the SU7 Max demonstrated a range of 643 km under high-speed conditions, maintaining an impressive energy retention rate of nearly 80% [14]

21.59 万元起，小米汽车 SU7 正式发布 3 月 28 日，小米首款汽车小米汽车 SU7 正式发布并上市，新车定位于「C 级高性能生态科技轿车」，提供双电机版本和单电机版本车型选择，并提供容量为 73.6 千瓦时以及 101 千瓦时电池可选，售价 21.59 万元-29.99 万元。 小米汽车 SU7 提供三款车型，标准版搭载单电机、5.28s 零百加速、CLTC 续航 700 公里、19 寸米其林轮胎、73.6kWh 磷酸铁锂刀片电池、15 分钟补能 350km、Xiaomi Pilot Pro 纯视觉智驾终生免费、小米澎湃智能座舱，售价 21.59 万元。 小米 SU7 Pro 版在标准版基础上增加了 20.7kWh 电池、激光雷达、小米智驾 Max 城市 NOA，售价 24.59 万元。 小米 SU7 Max 版搭载双电机，拥有 2.78s 零百加速、265km/h 最高时速、800km CLTC 续航、101kWh 麒麟电池三元锂、15 分钟补能 510km、Xiaomi Pilot Max、小米澎湃智能座舱，售价 29.99 万元。 据了解，小米 SU7 上市 27 分钟，大定 50000 ...

每经记者 赵云    每经编辑 肖芮冬     3月29日，市场全天震荡反弹，三大指数均收涨。 板块方面，黄金概念、油气、5.5G、小米汽车等板块涨幅居前，Sora概念、房地产、算力、手机游戏等板块跌幅居前。  全市场超3800只个股上涨。沪深两市成交额8586亿，较上个交易日缩量736亿。 下面一起来看截至今天收盘，主动公募基金在本周、本月和整个一季度的表现。 （注：榜单仅选取灵活配置型、偏股混合型和普通股票型三类产品作为主动基金的代表，纳入统计；同时在单日榜单中剔除按周披露净值的定开型基金表现） 先说看点： 一，整个一季度表现最好的产品，累计涨幅略低于本月表现最好产品的涨幅，说明前面两个月确实有个爬坑的过程； 二，本月表现最差的产品仅下跌不到9%，但本周垫底产品跌幅超过10%； 三，今日领涨基金和本周领涨基金重合度较高。 下面是各个时段的涨跌幅榜TOP20。 1.单日涨跌幅榜 2.本周涨跌幅榜 3.本月涨跌幅榜 4.一季度涨跌幅榜 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Auto has clarified its policy regarding non-refundable deposits for the SU7 model, stating that deposits can be refunded within 7 days unless the configuration is locked, which makes the deposit non-refundable [1] Group 1 - Xiaomi Auto received a total of 469 requests related to order cancellations and configuration changes as of March 29 at noon [1] - The purchasing process in the Xiaomi Auto app includes three prompts regarding the non-refundable nature of the deposit once the configuration is locked [1] - A pop-up notification appears during the final "lock configuration" step to inform users that the deposit will become non-refundable [1]