机构：银河证券 研究员：石金漫/高峰/秦智坤 研发投入稳定增长，坚定不移推进底层核心技术研发：2025年H1公司研发费用同比增长35.8%至144.8 亿元，研发费用率同比-0.1Pct至6.4%，Q2 单季研发费用同比增长41.2%至77.6亿元，研发费用率同比 +0.5pct至6.7% 研发费用的增长主要来源于智能电动汽车与AI等创新业务的研发开支，公司坚定不移的 推进A工芯片、大模型、操作系统等底层技术研发，提升科技硬实力，截止2025年6月30日，公司研发 人员达到22641人，创历史新高。期间费用率方面，2025年H1公司销售/管理/财务费用率分别为 6.6%/1.4%/ 0.4%，同比分别-0.3pct/-0.5pct/+1.0pct，良好的费用管控能力叠加收入规模高速扩张带来费 用分摊，公司期间费用率稳中有降，推动公司盈利能力提升。 投资建议：预计2025年-2027年公司将分别实现营业收入4977.35亿元、6303.60亿元、7245.73亿元，实 现净利润417.17亿元、557.10亿元， 667.90亿元，EPS分别为1.60元、2.14元、2.57元，对应PE分别为 32.78倍、2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Industrial Fulian (601138) driven by AI demand, with projected revenues of 843.4 billion, 1,320.3 billion, and 1,715.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 38.5%, 56.5%, and 29.9% respectively, and net profits of 30.5 billion, 50.5 billion, and 59.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 31.5%, 65.5%, and 17.6% [2][11] - Xiaomi Group (01810) reported record high revenues and profits in Q2 2025, with revenues of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and adjusted net profits of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75% year-on-year, driven by IoT and EV segments [10][12] - Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) expects significant profit growth for FY25, with net profits projected between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165%-190%, attributed to increased sales and cost reductions [13][15] Industrial Fulian (601138) - The company’s main business includes cloud computing, communication, and industrial internet, with a notable increase in cloud computing revenue expected to reach 319.38 billion yuan in 2024, a 64.4% year-on-year growth [11] - AI server demand is surging, with global cloud providers' capital expenditures increasing by 64% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [11] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the high-speed switch market, with revenues from 800G switches projected to triple compared to 2024 [11] Xiaomi Group (01810) - The company’s IoT segment saw a revenue increase of 45% in Q2, with smart home appliances achieving record sales, particularly in air conditioning and washing machines [12][14] - The electric vehicle segment reported a revenue of 21.3 billion yuan with a significant improvement in gross margin, indicating a positive trend towards profitability [12][14] - Xiaomi plans to expand its global footprint in the home appliance sector, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for international sales [12][14] Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy and integrated pulp-paper operations, which are expected to enhance profitability significantly [15][16] - The anticipated increase in paper prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics is expected to further boost profits [15][16] - The company’s production capacity is set to expand, with new lines expected to come online, reinforcing its market position [15][16] Electric Heavy Trucks Industry - The electric heavy truck market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with sales reaching 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, representing a penetration rate of 22% [18] - The European market is also seeing a rise in electric heavy truck adoption, with projections indicating significant growth in sales and market penetration by 2026 [18] - The industry is becoming increasingly collaborative, with a focus on developing specialized products across the supply chain, enhancing profitability potential [18] Other Companies - Keda Li (002850) reported strong revenue growth in Q2, driven by its structural components business and advancements in robotics [19] - China Hongqiao (01378) is set to benefit from increased production capacity and a favorable pricing environment for aluminum products, with projected net profits significantly increasing [20][21] - Blue Sky Technology (300487) continues to show growth potential, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market presence [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 66.86 HKD [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown strong product innovation and delivery capabilities, with record monthly deliveries in its automotive segment and significant growth in IoT and home appliance businesses [6][10] - The revenue and adjusted net profit reached new quarterly highs, indicating robust financial performance [10] - The automotive gross margin has significantly improved, and the IoT business is experiencing rapid growth, contributing to the overall positive outlook for the company [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 270,970 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of -3%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 484,886 million HKD, reflecting a 33% growth [9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 20,009 million HKD in 2023 to 49,537 million HKD in 2025, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 102% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 17,475 million HKD in 2023 to 42,655 million HKD in 2025, marking an 80% increase [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.67 HKD in 2023 to 1.64 HKD in 2025 [9] Product and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1160 million HKD, a 30% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 108 million HKD, up 75% year-on-year [10] - The automotive segment generated 206 million HKD in revenue in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 26.4%, indicating strong consumer acceptance of high-end models [10] - The IoT and lifestyle product segment reached a record revenue of 387 million HKD in Q2 2025, growing 45% year-on-year, with significant contributions from major appliances [10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a significant performance surge in Q2 2025, achieving a record total revenue of 116 billion yuan, with a notable focus on high-end smartphone strategies and automotive business expansion [4][6]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached 116 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [6]. - Adjusted net profit was 10.8 billion yuan, up 75.4% year-on-year [6]. - Gross margin improved to 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Business Segment Performance - **Smartphone Business**: Revenue was 45.5 billion yuan with a gross margin of 11.5%, impacted by rising memory prices [6]. - **IoT Business**: Revenue grew by 44.7% year-on-year to 38.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.5% [6]. - **Automotive Business**: Revenue reached 20.6 billion yuan with a gross margin of 26.4%, and operating losses narrowed to 300 million yuan [6]. Business Highlights and Strategic Directions - **Smartphone**: Xiaomi maintained a global market share of 14.7%, ranking among the top three for 20 consecutive quarters. The share of models priced above 4000 yuan approached one-third [7]. - **IoT Business**: The segment saw a 44.7% revenue increase, with notable growth in tablet sales and a plan to open 400-500 new overseas stores in 2025 [8]. - **Automotive Business**: The first SUV, "Xiaomi YU7," achieved a lock order volume of 240,000 units, with a delivery volume of 81,300 units [9]. - **R&D Investment**: R&D spending increased by 41.2% year-on-year, with a focus on edge AI technology, allocating 7.5 billion yuan for 2025 [10]. Investor Q&A Summary - **IoT Business Expansion**: The domestic market benefits from offline channel development, while overseas expansion is crucial, with plans for 400-500 new stores in 2025 and over 1000 in 2026 [12]. - **Smartphone Margin Fluctuations**: Short-term impacts from DDR4 memory price increases, with long-term strategies focusing on high-end products and self-developed chip technology [13]. - **IoT Margin Pressure**: Q2 margins were affected by promotional activities, but the annual target remains unchanged [14]. - **Automotive Margin Drivers**: The high margin is attributed to the effectiveness of the high-end strategy and standardization on the Modena platform [15]. - **Edge AI Strategy**: The focus is on enhancing user experience, with plans to increase the proportion of edge AI in the future [16].

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a revenue of 116 billion yuan for Q2, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, and has surpassed 100 billion yuan for three consecutive quarters [1] - The adjusted net profit reached 10.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 75.4% year-on-year, continuing a trend of exceeding 10 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters [1] Revenue Breakdown - Smartphone business generated revenue of 45.5 billion yuan, with shipment volume showing positive growth for eight consecutive quarters [1] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue amounted to 38.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.7% [1] - Smart home appliances saw a revenue increase of 66.2% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from innovative segments such as smart electric vehicles and AI reached 21.3 billion yuan, representing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 234%, achieving a historical high [1]

Group 1 - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (YoY +47%) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (YoY +65%), marking a historical high for a single quarter [1] - The gross margin improved to 22.8% (YoY +0.5 percentage points), indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [1] - The revenue contributions from various business segments in Q1 2025 were 46% from smartphones, 29% from IoT and consumer products, 8% from internet services, and 17% from smart electric vehicles and AI [1] Group 2 - The IoT business generated revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (YoY +59%) with a gross margin of 25.2% (YoY +5.4 percentage points), achieving a historical high in revenue and gross profit [2] - Smart home appliances saw a significant revenue increase of 114%, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing shipment growth of 65%, 65%, and 100% respectively [2] - The internet services segment reported revenue of 9.1 billion yuan (YoY +13%) with a gross margin of 76.9% (YoY +2.7 percentage points) [2] Group 3 - The smart electric vehicle and AI business reported revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and the loss in this segment narrowed to 500 million yuan [2] - The company delivered 76,000 units of the Xiaomi SU7 series in Q1 2025, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 258,000 units [2] - The company opened 235 automotive sales stores by March 31, 2025, enhancing its sales and service network [2] Group 4 - The company launched its first self-developed SoC, the Xuanjie O1, and introduced the Xiaomi 15S Pro and Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, along with a new 4G watch chip [3] - R&D expenses reached 6.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong commitment to core technology development [3] - The company raised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 36.2 billion, 46.4 billion, and 66 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 53%, 28%, and 42% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][29]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved record high revenue and profit, with total revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan (YoY +47%) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (YoY +65%), marking a historical high for a single quarter [1]. - The company continues to see strong growth across its business segments, with smartphone, IoT and lifestyle products, internet services, and smart electric vehicles contributing 46%, 29%, 8%, and 17% to revenue, respectively [1]. - The smart electric vehicle and AI innovation business saw revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, with a narrowing loss of 500 million yuan [3]. - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, achieving an operating expense ratio of 13.9% (YoY -2.2pct) [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.8% (YoY +0.5pct) [1]. - The smartphone business generated 50.6 billion yuan (YoY +8.9%) with a gross margin of 12.4% [2]. - IoT business revenue reached 32.3 billion yuan (YoY +59%) with a gross margin of 25.2% [2]. - Internet services revenue was 9.1 billion yuan (YoY +13%) with a gross margin of 76.9% [2]. Smart Electric Vehicle and AI Business - Revenue from smart electric vehicles was 18.1 billion yuan, with an average selling price (ASP) of 238,000 yuan [3]. - The company delivered 76,000 units of the Xiaomi SU7 series in Q1 2025, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 258,000 units [3]. - The company is expanding its sales service network, with 235 automotive sales stores opened by March 31 [3]. Financial Forecasts - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 36.2 billion yuan, 46.4 billion yuan, and 66 billion yuan, representing YoY growth rates of 53%, 28%, and 42% respectively [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 484.2 billion yuan, 611 billion yuan, and 721.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.3%, 26.2%, and 18.2% [5].

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and adjusted profit of 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 111.3 billion yuan, marking a 47% year-on-year growth and exceeding 100 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 10.7 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 9.1 billion yuan [1] - The performance exceeded expectations primarily due to high growth in IoT business and improved gross margins, particularly in electric vehicles [1] Group 2: Mobile Phone Segment - In Q1, smartphone shipments in China grew by 40%, with revenue from smartphones at 50.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached a historical high of 1,211 yuan, up 6% year-on-year [2] - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments totaled 41.8 million units, a 2.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of 14.1% [2] - The company adjusted its strategy to focus more on product structure rather than sheer volume, with a target of 180 million units by 2025 [2] Group 3: IoT Business - IoT revenue reached 32.3 billion yuan, exceeding expectations of 29.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59% [3] - Gross margin for IoT was 25.2%, significantly higher than the expected 21.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7 percentage points [3] - Major appliances showed exceptional performance, with smart home appliances revenue up 114% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Electric Vehicles and AI - Revenue from the smart electric vehicle segment was 18.6 billion yuan, with deliveries of 76,900 units, and operating losses reduced to 500 million yuan [4] - The gross margin for this segment improved to 23.2% [4] - The company plans to invest significantly in R&D, with a target of 30 billion yuan for 2025, of which 25% will be allocated to AI [1][4] Group 5: Advertising and Services - Service revenue reached 9.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a gross margin of 76.9% [3] - Advertising revenue was 6.6 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, contributing to the overall service revenue growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's recent financial performance demonstrates significant growth across multiple business segments, indicating a strong market position and potential for future profitability, particularly in the smart electric vehicle sector [3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Xiaomi reported revenue of 1112.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 106.8 billion yuan, up 64.5%, both exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [3][4]. - The smartphone business saw a 40% increase in domestic market shipments, reclaiming a 18.8% market share, while the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached a historical high of 1211 yuan, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year growth [4][8]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment generated revenue of 323.4 billion yuan, a 58.7% increase, with IoT revenue now accounting for 29.1% of total revenue [11]. Business Segment Insights - The smart electric vehicle segment is nearing breakeven, with losses reduced from 18 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, and revenue for the quarter reached 181 billion yuan, representing 55% of last year's total revenue [6][7]. - Xiaomi's home appliance sales surged, with air conditioning units and refrigerators both exceeding 110,000 and 88,000 units sold, respectively, and washing machines seeing over 74,000 units sold, with growth rates exceeding 100% [11]. Market Dynamics - The current growth is partly attributed to subsidy policies, which may pose challenges once these incentives are removed, potentially impacting demand in the consumer electronics sector [10][14]. - Xiaomi is proactively addressing future challenges by establishing a smart home appliance factory in Wuhan, aimed at reducing costs and maintaining inventory levels [15]. Future Considerations - The transition from IoT hardware to AI services is a critical challenge for Xiaomi, as consumer expectations evolve beyond simple smart devices to integrated AI solutions [16][18]. - Xiaomi's AI research has advanced, with significant developments in local model performance, but the implementation of these technologies into consumer products remains a key hurdle [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 113.8% in smart home appliances for the first quarter of 2025 [1] Revenue Growth - The revenue from smart home appliances reached a notable increase of 113.8% compared to the same period last year [1] Product Performance - Air conditioner shipments exceeded 1.1 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 65% [1] - Refrigerator shipments surpassed 880,000 units, also showing a year-on-year growth rate of over 65% [1] - Washing machine shipments exceeded 740,000 units, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of over 100% [1] - Both washing machine and refrigerator shipments reached historical highs [1]