Economic Overview - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption remains strong, benefiting from tax incentives and subsidies, while textile and film consumption is weak[7] - Real estate sales and land market show signs of fatigue, with infrastructure special bonds fully issued but project progress lagging[7] - Exports to South Korea are recovering, while import demand weakens post shopping festival[7] Market Performance - Major global asset prices have declined, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 5.1%, the largest decline among major indices[9] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.9%[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 4.06%[9] Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000[12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%[12] - Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant internal disagreement regarding future monetary policy direction[8] Investment Strategies - ETF inflows have increased significantly to 503 billion, while foreign and financing funds have seen outflows[15] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with average daily turnover dropping to 1.9 trillion[14] - The risk appetite remains low, with the overall market sentiment declining[14] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations for investments in internet and computing sectors[35] - The financial sector is poised for recovery, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks[35] - Consumer stocks are seen as undervalued, with potential growth in food and beverage sectors[35]

机构：平安证券 研究员：王德安/王跟海/杨钟/徐勇 事项： 智能手机业务受存储涨价，2026 年成本端略有压力。三季度公司手机出货量超过4300 万台（同比 +0.5%），智能手机业务营收达到460 亿元（同比-3.1%），营收端下降主要是由于智能手机ASP 下降所 致，三季度公司智能手机ASP 达到1062.8 元（同比-3.6%），海外市场ASP 下降对公司手机业务造成一 定压力，但部分被中国大陆高端智能手机出货量占比提高带动ASP 上升抵消。毛利率方面，三季度公 司智能手机业务毛利率为11.1%，同比下降约0.6 个百分点。展望后续，受全球内存市场持续涨价的影 响，我们预计公司智能手机、平板、笔记本电脑在2026 年或将面临成本端的压力，其毛利率将有所承 压。 三季度IoT 与生活消费品业务营收增速回落，主要是由于国补退坡导致智能大家电收入同比减少。三季 度IoT 业务营收达到276 亿元，同比增加5.6%。其中若干生活消费产品收入同比增加20.4%，可穿戴产 品收入同比增加22.5%，智能大家电收入同比减少15.7%，这主要是由于中国大陆出货量因国家补贴退 坡及竞争加剧而减少。小米智能家电工厂已正式竣 ...

Group 1: Business Environment Optimization - The city has released a new batch of innovative application scenarios to optimize the business environment, focusing on 18 specific areas to enhance the operational experience of businesses [1] - The city aims to create a model business environment that fosters high-quality economic development through innovative thinking and practical methods [1][7] Group 2: Transportation and Logistics Solutions - The city has established a classification supervision mechanism based on "credit easy approval" to improve the efficiency of transporting large equipment, addressing the unique challenges faced by large-scale manufacturing enterprises [2] - A case study of Nanjing High Gear Manufacturing Co., Ltd. shows that by adopting a new transportation method, the company completed approximately 1850 transport tasks and saved nearly 2.5 million yuan in logistics costs [2] Group 3: Financial Services for Private Enterprises - The Nanjing Municipal Financial Service Center for private enterprises has been established to address financing difficulties, providing a platform for credit and investment matchmaking services [3] - The center collaborates with six financial institutions and offers comprehensive financial services, including regular business matching and roadshow events to support private enterprises [3] Group 4: Biopharmaceutical Industry Support - The city has introduced a "green channel" for the expedited customs clearance of special items in the biopharmaceutical sector, significantly reducing the approval time from a maximum of 20 working days to just 1-3 days [4] - This initiative aims to facilitate the rapid internationalization of biopharmaceutical companies, particularly in the fields of cell and gene therapy [4] Group 5: Streamlined Administrative Processes - The city has implemented a reform in the "one matter" process for enterprises going abroad, consolidating 16 required documents into a single set of 9, achieving a 75% material recognition and sharing rate [6] - This reform has led to a significant reduction in the preparation time for applications, with 41 companies receiving one-on-one guidance and a total investment amount of 238 million USD being involved [6] Group 6: Project Approval Efficiency - The Lishui District has optimized the project approval process, significantly reducing the time from signing to groundbreaking for major projects, exemplified by the rapid initiation of the Chasing Technology headquarters project [6] - The district has integrated multiple administrative functions to enhance the efficiency of project approvals, focusing on the three key stages of attracting, landing, and producing major projects [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 227.25 billion yuan, up 38.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 21.51 billion yuan, up 69.8% year-on-year [1] - The automotive business achieved record revenue and sales, with Q2 revenue reaching 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 233.9%, and a narrowing operating loss [2] - The smartphone business showed strong performance in overseas markets despite a decline in domestic ASP, with Q2 revenue of 45.52 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [3] - The company maintained stable growth in R&D investment, with R&D expenses increasing by 35.8% year-on-year to 14.48 billion yuan in H1 2025 [4] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved an operating profit of 26.56 billion yuan, up 177.5% year-on-year, and an EPS of 0.90 [1] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded an operating revenue of 115.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2% [1] Automotive Business - The automotive segment's Q2 revenue reached 21.26 billion yuan, with a record delivery of 81,300 vehicles, up 7.2% from Q1 [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles increased by 6.8% to 262,000 yuan, contributing to a Q2 automotive gross margin of 26.4%, up 11.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company plans to enter the European market by 2027, leveraging high brand recognition to replicate its domestic success [2] Smartphone and IoT Business - The smartphone business saw a total shipment of 42.4 million units in Q2, with a 3.6% increase in domestic shipments [3] - The IoT and consumer products segment reported a revenue of 38.71 billion yuan, up 447% year-on-year, with major appliances achieving a 66.2% growth [3] R&D and Future Outlook - R&D expenses for H1 2025 were 14.48 billion yuan, with a focus on electric vehicles and AI technologies [4] - The company aims to achieve revenues of 497.73 billion yuan, 630.36 billion yuan, and 724.57 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits projected at 41.72 billion yuan, 55.71 billion yuan, and 66.79 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities reports that Xiaomi's Q2 performance shows significantly better-than-expected automotive profitability, with future capacity ramp-up needing observation [1] Group 1: Smartphone Performance - The smartphone segment remains resilient, outperforming the market, with notable success in high-end product offerings, leading to a positive long-term outlook on gross margins [1] Group 2: Home Appliances and Internet Revenue - Smart home appliances continue to reach new highs in innovation, while internet services contribute stable revenue [1] Group 3: Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2025-2027 to 489.1 billion, 641.8 billion, and 758.4 billion yuan, up from previous estimates of 486.1 billion, 631.1 billion, and 756.9 billion yuan [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have also been increased to 45.4 billion, 68.1 billion, and 83.6 billion yuan, compared to prior predictions of 44.1 billion, 58.4 billion, and 72.8 billion yuan [1] - Target price has been raised to 77.5 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, marking three consecutive quarters of over 100 billion yuan [1] - Adjusted net profit was 10.8 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 10.2 billion yuan, and representing a year-on-year increase of 75% [1] - The performance was driven by strong IoT business growth, improved EV gross margins, and a slight offset from a decline in smartphone revenue [1] Smartphone Segment - Q2 smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 11.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points [1] - The average selling price (ASP) was 1,073 yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year [1] - The company adjusted its annual shipment target to 175 million units, emphasizing product structure over sales volume [2] IoT Segment - Q2 IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, exceeding expectations [2] - The gross margin for IoT was 22.5%, down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to promotional activities [2] - Smart home appliances saw significant growth, with air conditioner shipments exceeding 5.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 60% [2] Electric Vehicle Segment - Q2 revenue from the electric vehicle (EV) segment was 21.3 billion yuan, with 81,300 units delivered and an ASP of 253,700 yuan [3] - The operating loss in this segment was reduced to 300 million yuan from 500 million yuan in Q1, with a gross margin of 26.4% [3] - The management maintained the annual delivery target of 350,000 units and expects to achieve operational profitability in the second half of 2025 [3] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 485.4 billion, 597.2 billion, and 725.8 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are now 43.6 billion, 51.2 billion, and 64.9 billion yuan [3] - The company aims to enter the European market by 2027 and plans to expand its sales and service network in Southeast Asia and Europe [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - DBS analysts believe that Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) is likely to see an increase in valuation due to its continuous market share growth across various business segments [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's profit margin expansion driven by the Internet of Things (IoT) business and steady growth in the electric vehicle (EV) sector is expected to offset the drag from the sluggish global smartphone growth in the long term [1] - IoT has become a structural profit driver for the company, showing widespread growth [1] - Xiaomi's market share in smart home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, etc.) continues to increase [1] Group 2: Cost Management - The company is achieving cost savings through its own manufacturing and automation capabilities, which, combined with economies of scale, will continue to support structural improvements in its gross margin [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Xiaomi [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Industrial Fulian (601138) driven by AI demand, with projected revenues of 843.4 billion, 1,320.3 billion, and 1,715.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 38.5%, 56.5%, and 29.9% respectively, and net profits of 30.5 billion, 50.5 billion, and 59.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 31.5%, 65.5%, and 17.6% [2][11] - Xiaomi Group (01810) reported record high revenues and profits in Q2 2025, with revenues of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and adjusted net profits of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75% year-on-year, driven by IoT and EV segments [10][12] - Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) expects significant profit growth for FY25, with net profits projected between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165%-190%, attributed to increased sales and cost reductions [13][15] Industrial Fulian (601138) - The company’s main business includes cloud computing, communication, and industrial internet, with a notable increase in cloud computing revenue expected to reach 319.38 billion yuan in 2024, a 64.4% year-on-year growth [11] - AI server demand is surging, with global cloud providers' capital expenditures increasing by 64% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [11] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the high-speed switch market, with revenues from 800G switches projected to triple compared to 2024 [11] Xiaomi Group (01810) - The company’s IoT segment saw a revenue increase of 45% in Q2, with smart home appliances achieving record sales, particularly in air conditioning and washing machines [12][14] - The electric vehicle segment reported a revenue of 21.3 billion yuan with a significant improvement in gross margin, indicating a positive trend towards profitability [12][14] - Xiaomi plans to expand its global footprint in the home appliance sector, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for international sales [12][14] Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy and integrated pulp-paper operations, which are expected to enhance profitability significantly [15][16] - The anticipated increase in paper prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics is expected to further boost profits [15][16] - The company’s production capacity is set to expand, with new lines expected to come online, reinforcing its market position [15][16] Electric Heavy Trucks Industry - The electric heavy truck market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with sales reaching 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, representing a penetration rate of 22% [18] - The European market is also seeing a rise in electric heavy truck adoption, with projections indicating significant growth in sales and market penetration by 2026 [18] - The industry is becoming increasingly collaborative, with a focus on developing specialized products across the supply chain, enhancing profitability potential [18] Other Companies - Keda Li (002850) reported strong revenue growth in Q2, driven by its structural components business and advancements in robotics [19] - China Hongqiao (01378) is set to benefit from increased production capacity and a favorable pricing environment for aluminum products, with projected net profits significantly increasing [20][21] - Blue Sky Technology (300487) continues to show growth potential, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market presence [22]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported record-high revenue and profit for Q2 and the first half of 2025, achieving growth in a challenging global consumer electronics market [1][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.2% [4]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 was 10.8 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 75.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of record highs [4]. - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was 227.2 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 69.8% [4]. - Overall gross margin improved to 22.5%, with the electric vehicle segment achieving a gross margin of 26.4% [4]. Business Segments - Xiaomi's smartphone business showed resilience with Q2 global shipments of 42.4 million units, maintaining a top-three position globally and regaining the top spot in the domestic market [6]. - The electric vehicle segment delivered over 81,000 vehicles in Q2, with a significant monthly delivery of over 30,000 units in July, and a gross margin of 26.4% [8]. - The smart home appliance segment saw a revenue increase of 66.2% in Q2, with air conditioning units showing a shipment of over 5.4 million units [9]. Strategic Outlook - Xiaomi aims for a 1% annual market share growth domestically and targets entering the "200 million club" in global sales over the next three to five years [7]. - The company plans to expand in emerging markets while focusing on high-end product growth in mature markets like Europe and Southeast Asia [7]. - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business is expected to achieve profitability in the second half of the year, with plans to enter the European market by 2027 [8]. Technological Advancements - Xiaomi has invested heavily in R&D, with 22,600 researchers and a Q2 R&D expenditure of 7.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2% [10]. - The company successfully developed the self-researched O1 flagship chip, which is a significant step towards high-end positioning and technological independence [11]. - Xiaomi's ecosystem is supported by its self-developed operating system, 澎湃OS, enhancing seamless connectivity across devices [11]. User Engagement - As of June 2025, Xiaomi's global monthly active users reached 731 million, with nearly 1 billion connected IoT devices [12]. - The electric vehicle segment has attracted high-value users, with a notable percentage of new users coming from iPhone owners [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 66.86 HKD [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown strong product innovation and delivery capabilities, with record monthly deliveries in its automotive segment and significant growth in IoT and home appliance businesses [6][10] - The revenue and adjusted net profit reached new quarterly highs, indicating robust financial performance [10] - The automotive gross margin has significantly improved, and the IoT business is experiencing rapid growth, contributing to the overall positive outlook for the company [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 270,970 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of -3%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 484,886 million HKD, reflecting a 33% growth [9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 20,009 million HKD in 2023 to 49,537 million HKD in 2025, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 102% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 17,475 million HKD in 2023 to 42,655 million HKD in 2025, marking an 80% increase [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.67 HKD in 2023 to 1.64 HKD in 2025 [9] Product and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1160 million HKD, a 30% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 108 million HKD, up 75% year-on-year [10] - The automotive segment generated 206 million HKD in revenue in Q2 2025, with a gross margin of 26.4%, indicating strong consumer acceptance of high-end models [10] - The IoT and lifestyle product segment reached a record revenue of 387 million HKD in Q2 2025, growing 45% year-on-year, with significant contributions from major appliances [10]