Core Viewpoint - Geely's decision to privatize Zeekr after less than a year of its IPO is aimed at better business integration and resource allocation within the group, as the company faces challenges in stock performance and sales growth [3][6][9]. Group 1: Privatization and Strategic Integration - Geely has submitted a non-binding offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Zeekr at $2.57 per share, representing a 13.6% premium over the last trading price [3][4]. - The privatization is part of Geely's broader strategy to consolidate its brands and streamline operations, as emphasized by Geely's founder Li Shufu in his "Taizhou Declaration" [6][12]. - Zeekr's market performance post-IPO has been disappointing, with its market cap dropping from $11 billion to $5.74 billion, prompting the need for privatization to enhance internal integration [9][11]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Zeekr's sales have been under pressure, with a reported 15% year-on-year decline in April 2023, highlighting the need for a turnaround strategy [14][22]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rivals like Tesla and Xiaomi aggressively pricing their models, putting pressure on Zeekr's flagship model, the Zeekr 001 [22][23]. - To address these challenges, Zeekr plans to launch three new models in 2025, including the high-end Zeekr 9X, which aims to penetrate the luxury market dominated by established brands [23][25]. Group 3: Leadership and Operational Adjustments - A key leadership change has occurred with Lin Jie taking over marketing and sales responsibilities at Zeekr, tasked with reversing the sales decline and enhancing brand synergy with Lynk & Co [14][16]. - The integration of Zeekr and Lynk & Co is focused on avoiding internal competition and optimizing product offerings, with a 20% reduction in the model lineup to improve marketing efficiency [20][26]. - Both brands are expected to share technological resources and market strategies, with Lynk & Co leveraging Zeekr's advancements in smart driving technology [20][26].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Group's recent decision to privatize Zeekr indicates a strategic shift aimed at addressing complex market conditions and internal development needs, marking a new phase of integration and transformation for the company [3][9]. Group 1: Privatization and Strategic Shift - On May 7, Geely submitted a non-binding offer to privatize Zeekr, intending to acquire all issued and outstanding shares and American depositary shares [3]. - The move comes less than a year after Zeekr's listing in the U.S., reflecting Geely's response to external uncertainties and the need for internal strategic focus and resource integration [3][9]. - Geely's previous strategy included merging Lynk & Co with Zeekr to strengthen the latter, but the current privatization suggests a more severe strategic assessment [3][4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Challenges - Zeekr's market performance has not met expectations, with a projected delivery of 222,100 vehicles in 2024, falling short of targets [4]. - For 2025, Geely set a sales target of 710,000 vehicles for Zeekr, but early 2025 sales data indicates significant pressure to meet this goal [4][9]. - Zeekr's stock price has been adversely affected by its sales performance, nearing "penny stock" levels [4]. Group 3: Implications of Privatization - Privatization may provide Zeekr with more operational flexibility, allowing for long-term strategic planning and technology development without the pressure of short-term market performance [6]. - The integration with Geely is expected to enhance collaboration in procurement and technology, potentially reducing losses through resource consolidation [6]. - Geely plans to redefine brand positioning post-privatization, with Zeekr aimed at the global luxury tech market, Lynk & Co as a global high-end new energy brand, and Geely Galaxy and China Star as mainstream brands [6]. Group 4: Technological and Structural Integration - Following the merger, Zeekr's technology assets, particularly in smart technology, will be integrated into Geely's research institute, enhancing Geely's R&D capabilities [7]. - Geely's ongoing integration efforts include the upgrade of the Galaxy brand and the incorporation of the Yizhen brand, indicating a continuous optimization of internal resource allocation [7]. - Discussions regarding the potential delisting of other subsidiaries like Lotus and Polestar are ongoing, with recent personnel adjustments signaling further integration efforts [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - Geely aims to achieve a sales target of 4.11 million vehicles by 2025 and 5 million by 2027, but faces challenges from increasing market competition and the need for continuous improvement in product, brand, and service quality [9]. - The integration process will involve addressing organizational adjustments, personnel integration, and cultural differences to ensure effective collaboration and synergy [9]. - The privatization of Zeekr represents a significant strategic decision for Geely, reflecting a cautious approach to risk and a commitment to optimizing operations for renewed growth [9].

Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - The measures aim to stabilize market expectations and support the development of the real economy, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8% to 3342.67 points on the announcement day [2][3] Public Fund Industry Reform - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced an action plan to promote high-quality development in public funds, shifting focus from "scale" to "returns" [4] - Key changes include linking management fees to fund performance, with lower fees for underperforming funds and potential increases for those exceeding benchmarks [4][5] - As of the end of April, public funds managed 32.5 trillion yuan, with over 50% of pension assets under management [4][5] Trade and Export Performance - In April, China's exports grew by 9.3% year-on-year, while imports turned positive with a 0.8% increase [9] - The total value of goods trade for the first four months reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase compared to the previous year [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 21.0%, while exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8% [9] Automotive Industry Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public input on new safety standards for automotive door handles, focusing on emergency access and safety in accidents [10] - The proposed standards aim to enhance the safety and visibility of hidden door handles, addressing concerns raised by recent traffic incidents [10][11] Private Sector Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to launch approximately 3 trillion yuan in quality projects this year, encouraging private sector participation in major infrastructure projects [13] - The initiative aims to leverage the flexibility and innovation of private enterprises to enhance project execution and create jobs [13] Stock Market and Corporate Actions - Geely Automobile announced plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, leading to its delisting from the NYSE and a focus on consolidating its automotive business [18] - This move reflects Geely's strategy to enhance its competitiveness in the smart electric vehicle sector amid increasing market pressures [18]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto Holdings plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, leading to Zeekr's privatization and delisting from the NYSE within a year of its IPO [2][6][19]. Group 1: Company Actions and Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Zeekr's stock surged over 11% in pre-market trading, closing with an 11.51% increase on May 7, while Geely's stock rose by 4.17% [2]. - The decision to privatize Zeekr is seen as a significant move for Geely, reflecting a strategic focus on the automotive core business and resource efficiency [5][8]. Group 2: Strategic Context - The privatization aligns with the "Taizhou Declaration," which emphasizes strategic focus, integration, and collaboration within Geely's automotive operations [6][8]. - The timeline of events shows a series of strategic maneuvers, including the initial public offering of Zeekr in May 2024 and subsequent restructuring efforts to optimize the ownership structure of Zeekr and Lynk & Co [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Since its establishment, Zeekr has faced significant financial losses, with net losses reported at 4.514 billion, 7.655 billion, 8.264 billion, and 5.79 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [23]. - Despite a 25% year-on-year increase in sales in Q1 2025, Zeekr's performance remains below expectations, achieving only 17.2% of its annual sales target in the first four months of the year [24][26]. Group 4: Future Leadership and Structure - The privatization raises questions about future leadership within Geely, particularly regarding who will steer the newly integrated automotive group post-privatization [33][34]. - The integration of Zeekr into Geely is expected to enhance operational efficiency and cost optimization across various brands under the Geely umbrella [31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile (175 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current closing price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move aims to eliminate redundant investments, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's core models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.8% from 2023 to 2025 [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.53 in 2023 to RMB 1.18 in 2025 [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is significantly lower than its competitors, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, compared to other new entrants like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The anticipated privatization of Zeekr is viewed as a strategic move to consolidate Geely's brand positioning and enhance market competitiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile is proposing to privatize Zeekr, which has been listed in the US for less than a year, by offering $2.566 per share, representing a premium of approximately 13.6% over the last trading price [2][3] Group 1: Privatization Proposal - Geely submitted a non-binding proposal to privatize Zeekr, suggesting a purchase price of $2.566 per share or $25.66 per American Depositary Share [2] - The proposed price represents a 13.6% premium over the last trading day’s closing price and a 20% premium over the volume-weighted average price over the last 30 trading days [2] - Geely currently holds approximately 65.7% of Zeekr's issued share capital [2] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Zeekr's stock price surged by 11.51% on May 7, closing at $25.19 per share, nearing Geely's proposed purchase price [2] - The trading volume for Zeekr's stock increased significantly, with a transaction value of $125 million, more than ten times the previous day's volume [2] Group 3: Strategic Integration - Geely aims to create a unified listing platform to integrate Zeekr's assets and resources, enhancing the competitiveness of its passenger vehicle business [3] - This move aligns with Geely's strategic shift from expansion to focus, as announced in the "Taizhou Declaration" on September 1, 2024 [3] Group 4: Zeekr's Performance - Zeekr, which was spun off from Lynk & Co, achieved a rapid IPO in the US market, listing on May 10, 2024 [3] - In the first four months of this year, Zeekr's total sales reached 155,300 units, with Lynk & Co contributing 100,200 units, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth, while Zeekr's brand sales grew by only 12% [3] - Zeekr's 2025 sales target is set at 710,000 units, with current completion rates at 21.87% overall, 25.64% for Lynk & Co, and 17.22% for Zeekr [4] Group 5: Financial Performance - Zeekr reported a revenue of 75.913 billion yuan for 2024, a 46.9% increase year-on-year, but incurred a net loss of 5.791 billion yuan, although the loss has narrowed compared to the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to further enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move is seen as beneficial for Geely's competitive positioning in the market [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with corresponding growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, and 27.8% respectively [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 5.31 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 16.63 billion in 2024, but expected to decline to RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 28.5% [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.18 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is low, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, significantly lower than competitors like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The report suggests that the privatization of Zeekr will allow Geely to consolidate its assets and resources, potentially lowering costs and improving overall competitiveness [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - Geely Automobile plans to acquire all shares of Zeekr Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., which it currently holds approximately 65.7% of, aiming for a complete merger [4] - The privatization of Zeekr is intended to promote deep integration of internal resources and enhance operational efficiency, thereby improving the company's core competitiveness and long-term value [7] - The merger is expected to create a unified platform that enhances the competitive edge of the group's passenger vehicle segment and allows for better strategic positioning in response to global market fluctuations [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2023A: 179,204 million CNY - 2024A: 240,194 million CNY (YOY +34.0%) - 2025E: 322,751 million CNY (YOY +34.4%) - 2026E: 420,661 million CNY (YOY +30.3%) - 2027E: 504,956 million CNY (YOY +20.0%) [6] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 5,308 million CNY - 2024A: 16,632 million CNY (YOY +213.3%) - 2025E: 12,500 million CNY (YOY -24.8%) - 2026E: 16,662 million CNY (YOY +33.3%) - 2027E: 19,696 million CNY (YOY +18.2%) [6] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.9% in 2027E [6] Strategic Focus - The merger aims to leverage Zeekr's experience in the smart electric vehicle sector to benefit the entire Geely Automobile Group [7] - The company is focusing on a dual-brand strategy with Geely Automobile Group and Zeekr Technology Group, enhancing collaboration across seven key technological areas [7] - The strategic positioning of brands under Geely includes Zeekr as a global luxury tech brand and Lynk & Co as a high-end global new energy brand [8] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profit for Geely Automobile from 2025 to 2027 is as follows: - 2025E: 12,500 million CNY - 2026E: 16,662 million CNY - 2027E: 19,696 million CNY [8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.24 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.95 CNY by 2027 [10]

01 事件概述 公司发布公告，有意对极氪（ZK.N）进行私有化建议，建议以2.566美元或1.23股新发行的公司股份收购每股极氪 股份（25.66美元或12.3股新发行的公司股份收购每股极氪ADS），建议购买价较于最后交易日美国存托股票于纽 交所的收市交易价溢价约13.6%，较截至最后交易日（包括该日）止最后30个交易日期间美国存托股票于纽交所的 成交量加权平均价格溢价20.0%，若私有化完成，极氪将成为吉利汽车的全资附属子公司、并从美股退市。 公司持有极氪已发行及发行在外股本总额约 65.7%，倘若私有化建议完成，极氪将成为公司的全资附属公司，并于 纽交所退市。公司拟透过发行新股、现金储备及债务融资（倘需要），为私有化建议提供资金。若采用现金私有 化，按照极氪总股本25.42亿股、以及非公司持有的股份比例34.3%，此次回购若采用现金则需要现金161 .8 亿 元；若采用发行股份私有化，则会新发行股份 10.73亿股，对于当前股份摊薄约9.6%；我们认为，极氪私有化有助 于公司全面整合极氪的资产及资源，是《台州宣言》"战略聚焦、战略整合、战略协同、战略稳健、战略人才"的落 地，促进经营效益提升、降本增效；极 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [6] Core Views - Geely plans to privatize Zeekr (ZK.N) at a price of $2.566 per share, representing a premium of approximately 13.6% over the last trading day [1] - The privatization aims to consolidate resources and create a unified Geely brand, enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness in the luxury electric vehicle market [2] - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 364.78 billion, RMB 439.69 billion, and RMB 512.83 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Privatization and Resource Integration - Geely holds approximately 65.7% of Zeekr's issued shares and plans to finance the privatization through new share issuance, cash reserves, and debt if necessary [2] - The cash privatization would require RMB 16.18 billion, while the share issuance would dilute existing shares by about 9.6% [2] Product Launches and Market Strategy - Geely aims for total sales of 710,000 vehicles in 2025, with Zeekr targeting 320,000 and Lynk & Co 390,000 [3] - The Lynk & Co 900 was launched in April 2025, with over 10,000 pre-orders within the first hour, indicating strong market interest [3] Technological Advancements - Geely is enhancing its AI integration, launching a comprehensive AI strategy that includes advanced driving technologies and voice models [4] - The integration of AI technologies is expected to boost product sales and reshape the company's valuation [4] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 364.78 billion, RMB 439.69 billion, and RMB 512.83 billion, with net profits of RMB 14.02 billion, RMB 17.78 billion, and RMB 20.38 billion respectively [5] - The projected EPS for the same period is 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 RMB, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [4][5]