经济观察网 12月5日，乐道汽车宣布全国换电站电池翻倍计划，将新增投超8,000块电池包，其中包括 4,500块85kWh版本，预计2026年1月中旬完成。届时电池规模将达到目前的2倍，以满足2026年春运及 不断增长的换电需求。 电池将根据区域用户数量和换电需求进行配置，并优先保障北方地区；同时配合85kWh电池灵活升级优 惠券，方便用户在冬季以更低成本提升续航。 蔚来联合创始人、总裁秦力洪表示，乐道在L90上市之初增投了2000块85度电池包，帮助L90树立了优 秀的用户口碑并带来了同级领先的市场表现。本次电池增投计划11月份已经开始，核心目标为通过提升 新老用户换电体验，加速市场向纯电、换电转化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting focus towards AI and technology, with companies like Tesla leading the way, while NIO is taking a more cautious and focused approach on core automotive products and profitability [1][2]. Group 1: NIO's Strategic Shift - NIO's CEO Li Bin emphasizes a return to core automotive business, focusing on vehicle sales and profitability rather than diversifying into AI and robotics [2][3]. - The company has transitioned from a broad exploration of various business avenues to a more concentrated effort on electric vehicle production and sales, acknowledging its small market share in China [2][3]. - NIO's operational changes include a shift to smaller project investments and a focus on return on investment (ROI) for all business units [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO achieved record deliveries of 87,000 vehicles, revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, and a gross margin of 14.7%, marking significant financial milestones [3][4]. - The company aims for a gross margin of 20% in the future, driven by high-margin product offerings and a focus on quality growth rather than just volume [4][5]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Strategies - NIO faces challenges from declining demand due to subsidy reductions, with a notable drop in new orders in November [4][12]. - The company is prioritizing stable pricing and efficient operations to ensure profitability, focusing on the financial contribution of each vehicle sold [4][12]. - Li Bin highlights the importance of maintaining a transparent supply chain and collaborative relationships with partners to manage costs effectively [12][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - NIO's goal for 2026 is to achieve full-year profitability, with a focus on high-quality growth and operational efficiency [4][14]. - The company plans to continue investing in charging infrastructure while ensuring that all expenditures are justified by potential returns [16][20]. - NIO is committed to maintaining its focus on electric vehicles and user experience, while exploring partnerships in the robotics sector without direct involvement [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profitability for Q3 2025, primarily due to reduced vehicle deliveries and a drop in gross margin [1][2][4]. Revenue Summary - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached 27.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 36.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.5% [1][2]. - Automotive business revenue was approximately 25.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 37.4% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.4% [2]. - Vehicle deliveries totaled 93,000 units, down 39.0% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Profitability Summary - The automotive business gross profit was 4.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 53.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 28.4% [4]. - The gross margin for the automotive business was 15.5%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -630 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the previous year [4]. Expense Summary - R&D expenses for Q3 2025 were 2.97 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year and 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, with an R&D expense ratio of 10.9% [5]. - Sales and management expenses were 2.77 billion yuan, down 17.6% year-on-year but up 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [5]. Cash Flow Summary - The net cash used in operating activities was 7.4 billion yuan, with free cash flow at -8.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025 [8]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with corresponding revenue estimated between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion yuan [8]. - The company anticipates a year-on-year decline in deliveries of 37.0% to 30.7% for Q4 2025 [8]. Product Development - The company is ramping up production for its new electric models, with the I6 and I8 targeting the mainstream and high-end electric vehicle markets [9]. - The 2026 model year for the L series is set for a significant upgrade, focusing on a streamlined SKU model and enhanced luxury features [9]. Market Positioning - The company aims to leverage its user insights and efficient organizational structure to innovate product offerings and maintain a competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [10].

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile has a long history and has faced various challenges in its journey towards listing and expanding its market presence, particularly in the context of the growing electric vehicle sector in China. The company is now focusing on both fuel and new energy vehicles, with significant growth in its overseas sales, especially in Russia and Europe, while maintaining a low-cost operational strategy to enhance profitability [5][9][12][26]. Group 1: Company History and Development - Chery Automobile was established in 1997 and became the first domestic brand to sell over 1 million vehicles by 2007 [5][7]. - The company attempted to go public multiple times but faced challenges due to complex shareholding structures and market conditions [6][9]. - Chery's IPO application was submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in February 2025, with a target fundraising of $1.5 billion to $2 billion [9][10]. Group 2: Sales and Market Performance - In 2023, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 9.495 million units, with a market penetration rate of 31.6%, while Chery's passenger car sales revenue was still 94.8% from fuel vehicles [14]. - By Q1 2024, fuel vehicle sales revenue was 45.95 billion, accounting for 90.9%, but this is projected to drop to 76.1% for the full year [15]. - Chery's overseas sales have been strong, with 2023 overseas revenue reaching 74.53 billion, making up 49.3% of total passenger car revenue [23]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Chery's revenue was 269.9 billion, a 65.4% increase year-on-year, but the net profit margin decreased to 5.35% [34]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 44.9 billion in Q1 2025, down from 16 billion in Q1 2024 [35][37]. - Chery's gross profit margin was 13.5% in 2024, significantly lower than competitors like BYD, which had a gross profit margin of 22.4% [31][34]. Group 4: Asset Quality and Liabilities - Chery's asset-liability ratio was 87.9% at the end of 2024, indicating a high level of debt compared to competitors [40][41]. - The company invested 7.5 billion in machinery and equipment in 2024, with a depreciation of 2.3 billion, reflecting a standard depreciation cycle of about 8 years [42][43]. - Despite a high asset-liability ratio, Chery's operational efficiency and cost management strategies have allowed it to maintain competitiveness in the market [46].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's sub-brand, Lado, launched its second product, L90, with a pre-sale price of 193,900 yuan, leading to increased store traffic and a nearly 20% rise in NIO's stock price, indicating a significant market impact and a critical moment for the company amidst sales pressure and profitability challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Product Details and Market Positioning - Lado L90 aims to penetrate the mainstream large three-row SUV market, traditionally dominated by range-extended models, by emphasizing the advantages of pure electric vehicles [1][6]. - The L90 features a 340KW high-performance oil-cooled rear motor, providing superior power and efficiency, and offers a spacious interior designed for family comfort, addressing common consumer concerns [2][4]. - With an 85 kWh battery and a range exceeding 600 kilometers, the L90 boasts a low energy consumption of 14.5 kWh per 100 kilometers, supported by NIO's extensive battery swap network [2][6]. Group 2: Strategic Importance and Sales Goals - The success of L90 is crucial for NIO's 2025 targets, including achieving monthly sales of 50,000 units and profitability by Q4 [5][6]. - NIO's strategy includes a shift from a "release then deliver" model to immediate delivery upon pre-sale, aiming to enhance consumer confidence and sales performance [4][5]. - The large three-row SUV market has seen significant growth, increasing from 920,000 units to 1.3 million units over three years, indicating strong demand for the L90's targeted price range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Operational Improvements and Challenges - NIO is implementing a new operational framework called Cell Business Unit (CBU) to enhance efficiency and accountability across its business units, focusing on clear financial goals and return on investment [7][8]. - Despite the positive pre-sale response for L90, internal discussions emphasize the need for continued focus on delivery logistics and customer service to ensure long-term success [9].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has shown impressive financial performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 72.5 billion and a net profit of 2.28 billion, indicating significant growth in both revenue and profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely's revenue reached 72.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25% [1]. - The net profit, excluding other income of 35.9 billion, was 2.28 billion, reflecting a 134% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The company delivered 704,000 vehicles in the quarter, marking a 47.6% increase year-on-year [1]. Market Position and Valuation - Despite strong performance, Geely's price-to-earnings ratio is below 10, and S&P has downgraded its rating to negative due to debt pressure and market competition [2]. - There is speculation that if Geely can challenge BYD's leading position in the new energy vehicle market, its market capitalization could reach 1 trillion, five times its current value [2]. Sales Performance - Geely's sales target for 2023 was 1.65 million vehicles, which was exceeded with actual sales of nearly 1.69 million [5]. - For 2024, the sales target was set at 1.9 million, which was later raised to 2 million, with actual sales reaching 2.18 million, a 29.1% increase [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, Geely's cumulative sales reached 1.173 million, a 48.6% increase year-on-year, representing 43.3% of the annual target [7][9]. New Energy Vehicle Strategy - Geely's new energy vehicle sales have seen significant growth, with a penetration rate approaching 50% by Q1 2025 [11][15]. - The company has adopted a "two-legged" approach, focusing on both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [16][20]. - In 2023, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales surged, accounting for 45.2% of Geely's new energy vehicle sales by Q4 [17]. Brand Development - Geely's premium brand, Zeekr, has faced challenges, with sales growth slowing in 2025 [30][31]. - The company has acquired a majority stake in Lynk & Co to bolster its market position [34]. - The newly launched Galaxy series has become a key driver of sales growth, contributing significantly to Geely's overall performance [41]. Conclusion - Geely's strong financial results and strategic positioning in the new energy vehicle market highlight its potential for future growth, despite facing challenges in market competition and brand performance [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is in a transitional phase with new and old products, awaiting the launch of pure electric models and the realization of AI technology [1] - The management has guided for a delivery volume of 123,000 to 128,000 units in Q2 2025, influenced by the clearance of old models and the ramp-up of new models [2] - The company is expected to release new pure electric SUV models i8 and i6 in July and September 2025, respectively, which may fill a market gap for electric SUVs priced above 300,000 yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4% [1] - The automotive business revenue in Q1 2025 was 24.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.1% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 74.7% [1][2] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was 2.5 billion yuan, with total cash on hand amounting to approximately 110.7 billion yuan [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] - R&D expense ratio in Q1 2025 was 9.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 3.9%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on the recovery of L-series sales and the ramp-up of pure electric models in 2025 [4] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27%, 33%, and 12% to 8 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 17.8 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The company plans to expand into lower-tier cities, potentially adding over 100,000 units in sales by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146.11 [8][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved record revenue in Q4 2024, with a revenue of RMB 443 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, driven by a record delivery volume of 158,000 vehicles [2][5]. - The company is expected to launch new models, including the i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, which are anticipated to enhance sales performance [3][4]. - The report adjusts the sales forecast for 2025-2027 down to 690,000, 920,000, and 990,000 units respectively, reflecting increased competition in the mid-to-large SUV segment [13][14]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 1,445 billion and a net profit of RMB 80 billion, with a gross margin of 20.5% [1]. - The Q4 2024 gross margin was reported at 20%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix and policy changes [2]. - The company plans to increase R&D spending to RMB 131 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19% [2][14]. Valuation and Comparables - The report uses comparable companies such as Geely and BYD to derive a valuation, applying a 22x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a premium due to the company's advanced driving capabilities and new electric vehicle launches [5][16]. - The target price of HKD 146.11 represents a 29% premium over the average PE of comparable companies [16][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its dual-energy matrix with the launch of the i8, a mid-to-large six-seat SUV, which is expected to improve market share and customer conversion rates [3][4]. - The company’s self-developed AD Max system has shown significantly lower takeover rates compared to Tesla's FSD, indicating strong competitive positioning in smart driving technology [4].