Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has shown impressive financial performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 72.5 billion and a net profit of 2.28 billion, indicating significant growth in both revenue and profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Geely's revenue reached 72.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25% [1]. - The net profit, excluding other income of 35.9 billion, was 2.28 billion, reflecting a 134% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The company delivered 704,000 vehicles in the quarter, marking a 47.6% increase year-on-year [1]. Market Position and Valuation - Despite strong performance, Geely's price-to-earnings ratio is below 10, and S&P has downgraded its rating to negative due to debt pressure and market competition [2]. - There is speculation that if Geely can challenge BYD's leading position in the new energy vehicle market, its market capitalization could reach 1 trillion, five times its current value [2]. Sales Performance - Geely's sales target for 2023 was 1.65 million vehicles, which was exceeded with actual sales of nearly 1.69 million [5]. - For 2024, the sales target was set at 1.9 million, which was later raised to 2 million, with actual sales reaching 2.18 million, a 29.1% increase [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, Geely's cumulative sales reached 1.173 million, a 48.6% increase year-on-year, representing 43.3% of the annual target [7][9]. New Energy Vehicle Strategy - Geely's new energy vehicle sales have seen significant growth, with a penetration rate approaching 50% by Q1 2025 [11][15]. - The company has adopted a "two-legged" approach, focusing on both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [16][20]. - In 2023, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales surged, accounting for 45.2% of Geely's new energy vehicle sales by Q4 [17]. Brand Development - Geely's premium brand, Zeekr, has faced challenges, with sales growth slowing in 2025 [30][31]. - The company has acquired a majority stake in Lynk & Co to bolster its market position [34]. - The newly launched Galaxy series has become a key driver of sales growth, contributing significantly to Geely's overall performance [41]. Conclusion - Geely's strong financial results and strategic positioning in the new energy vehicle market highlight its potential for future growth, despite facing challenges in market competition and brand performance [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is in a transitional phase with new and old products, awaiting the launch of pure electric models and the realization of AI technology [1] - The management has guided for a delivery volume of 123,000 to 128,000 units in Q2 2025, influenced by the clearance of old models and the ramp-up of new models [2] - The company is expected to release new pure electric SUV models i8 and i6 in July and September 2025, respectively, which may fill a market gap for electric SUVs priced above 300,000 yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 25.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4% [1] - The automotive business revenue in Q1 2025 was 24.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 42.1% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 74.7% [1][2] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was 2.5 billion yuan, with total cash on hand amounting to approximately 110.7 billion yuan [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] - R&D expense ratio in Q1 2025 was 9.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 3.9%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on the recovery of L-series sales and the ramp-up of pure electric models in 2025 [4] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27%, 33%, and 12% to 8 billion yuan, 12.4 billion yuan, and 17.8 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The company plans to expand into lower-tier cities, potentially adding over 100,000 units in sales by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]