Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [4]. Core Insights - Solar glass prices have dropped below cash cost levels, with reported prices in June for 2.0mm products at Rmb12-12.5/sqm and actual executed prices ranging from Rmb10.8-11/sqm, indicating industry-wide losses at cash levels [2][7]. - The rebound in solar glass prices in March and April led to the initiation of 11.3kt/d new capacities and the resumption of one 850/t line in the past three months, with the industry operating capacity at approximately 100kt/d, supporting around 54GW monthly production [7]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Solar glass prices rebounded in March and April to Rmb14-14.5/sqm due to better-than-expected demand, but have since fallen to Rmb12-12.5/sqm in June, with actual prices for smaller players even lower [2][7]. Production Capacity - Approximately 97% of the operating capacity commenced production in 2021 and later, making it difficult to suspend production quickly. There are still around 10kt/d of smaller lines that may exit the market first due to higher costs [3]. Market Dynamics - The lower profit margins are expected to trigger production line blockages or suspensions, with companies like CNBM, Flat Glass, IRICO, and Almaden planning maintenance in the near term [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates solid growth in the industrial robot sector, with China's industrial robot production growing by 36% year-on-year in May, up from 34% in the previous four months [7]. - Global players such as ABB, Fanuc, Kuka, and Yamaha saw a combined shipment increase of 3% year-on-year in May, compared to a 2% increase in the first four months of 2025 [7]. - The growth is primarily driven by demand from the automotive sector, consumer electronics (3C), and exports, with expectations of intense competition and sustained market share gains for domestic brands like Estun and Inovance [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industrial robot operations in China are experiencing robust growth, with significant contributions from various sectors [7]. Production and Shipment Data - China's industrial robot production increased by 36% year-on-year in May, supported by strong demand from the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [7]. - The report highlights that Fanuc's inventory levels have normalized, allowing for continuous shipments to key customers such as Li Auto and Xiaomi [7]. Market Dynamics - The competition in the industrial robot market remains intense, with domestic brands expected to maintain their market share gains [7].

Investment Rating - The stock rating for Li Auto Inc. is Overweight [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that June sales for Li Auto were slower than expected, tracking behind the company's 2Q volume guidance of 123-128k units, with a June target of 48-53k units, resulting in a hit rate of 34-38% in the first half of June [2][3] - Despite the current sales weakness, the report maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year, anticipating a resurgence in operations supported by a new model cycle and improved execution from the Li Auto team [2][4] - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in Li Auto's channel strategy and increased price competition may temporarily affect sales momentum, but these impacts are expected to be transient [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Li Auto's ADR/H shares fell by 4%, underperforming against the HSI which declined by 1%, primarily due to slower month-to-date sales [1][3] - Concerns were raised regarding a 0.3% reduction in holdings by major shareholder Meituan's Wang Xing during June 10-13 [1][3] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the lukewarm sales in June do not disrupt the thesis of a second-half operational resurgence, which is expected to be driven by the introduction of new models [2] - The anticipated recovery in order momentum is supported by lessons learned from previous product launches and potentially more competitive pricing strategies [2] Valuation and Market Data - The price target for Li Auto Inc. is set at US$36.00, with the stock closing at US$26.94 on June 17, 2025 [4] - The market capitalization of Li Auto is approximately Rmb192,891.6 million, with an enterprise value of Rmb87,595.7 million [4]

Investment Rating - The industry view for China Utilities is rated as Attractive [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a stable pricing environment for solar products, with polysilicon prices averaging Rmb35/kg, remaining flat week-over-week, while granular polysilicon prices decreased by 1.4% week-over-week [5] - The report notes a downward trend in prices for N-type wafers and TOPCon cells, with decreases of up to 3.1% week-over-week [5] - Year-over-year price changes show significant declines across various solar products, with polysilicon prices down 10.3%, and TOPCon bifacial modules down 20.9% [2][5] Summary by Sections Price Summary - Polysilicon prices averaged Rmb35/kg, with a weekly average of Rmb19.00/kg for polysilicon in USD terms [2] - Wafer prices for 182mm and 210mm were Rmb0.93 and Rmb1.27 respectively, with a year-over-year decline of 15.5% and 23.0% [2] - The average price for TOPCon bifacial modules was Rmb0.68, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 20.9% [2] Price Changes - The report indicates that solar-grade EVA resin prices decreased by 11.3% year-over-year, while POE resin prices remained stable [2][5] - The price of solar films showed a year-over-year decline of 15.0% for transparent EVA film and 27.3% for POE film [2] Company Ratings - CGN Power Co., Ltd is rated Overweight with a price of HK$2.73 as of June 18, 2025 [59] - China Gas Holdings is rated Equal-weight with a price of HK$7.60 [59] - LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd is rated Overweight with a price of Rmb14.59 [59]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Ningbo Tuopu to an Overweight (OW) rating with a price target of Rmb56.00, reflecting a positive outlook based on recent developments and recovery in sales volume from key customers [2][41]. Core Insights - The worst is considered to be behind for Tuopu, with signs of recovery in sales volume from key customers Tesla and Seres. The company is expected to benefit from upcoming catalysts such as Tesla's Robotaxi and AI Day events [7][9][41]. - Tuopu is gradually reducing its reliance on Tesla by expanding its customer base among domestic NEV manufacturers, which is expected to enhance revenue stability [13][41]. - The company anticipates mitigating the impact of US tariffs by leveraging production capacities in Thailand and Mexico, thereby reducing its export exposure [41]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Tuopu's revenue for FY24 is estimated at Rmb26.6 billion, with projections of Rmb33.6 billion for FY25 and Rmb41.6 billion for FY26, indicating a growth trajectory [12][18]. - The adjusted net income is projected to grow from Rmb2.999 billion in FY24 to Rmb3.572 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [12][18]. Customer Insights - Tesla and Seres are significant contributors to Tuopu's revenue, accounting for 33% and 17-18% of FY24 revenue, respectively. Recent sales volume recovery from these customers is expected to drive revenue growth [7][13]. - Tesla's global deliveries in 1Q25 decreased by 13% year-on-year, but recovery is noted since April 2025, with weekly retail sales volume increasing to approximately 9,000 units [7][23]. Valuation - The report maintains a price target of Rmb56, applying a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, with a 40x P/E for robotic parts and a 20x P/E for auto parts [14][42]. - The current valuation reflects an attractive entry point post recent share price corrections, trading at 18x 2026E P/E [10][12]. Market Trends - The report highlights a sequential recovery in sales volume for Tuopu, particularly in 2Q25, with expected revenue growth of approximately 15% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter from a low base in 1Q25 [10][12]. - The anticipated launch of Tesla's Robotaxi and updates on Tesla's AI Day are seen as near-term catalysts that could further enhance Tuopu's market position [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for oil prices in the low to mid $60s for the remainder of 2025 and $60 in 2026, despite geopolitical concerns [6][10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have increased due to Israel's attack on Iran, raising the worst-case scenario probability for oil supply disruptions to 17% [3][4]. - The recent spike in oil prices by 5% reflects heightened security risks in the Middle East, with a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario where supply impacts extend beyond Iranian exports [6][10]. - The US aluminum tariffs have created significant uncertainty in the aluminum market, with the US Midwest premium (MWP) currently insufficient to incentivize necessary imports [7][10]. Oil Market Summary - Global oil demand averaged 103.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in June, showing a year-over-year increase of 560 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [10]. - Total liquid inventories surged by 34 million barrels (mb) in the first week of June, with crude oil stocks rising by 27 mb [10]. - An attack on Iran could potentially spike oil prices to $120, impacting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 5% [6]. Aluminum Market Summary - The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a sideways outlook on aluminum prices, with participants at the Harbor Aluminum Summit expressing uncertainty about future demand [7][10]. - The current MWP is around 60 cents per pound, which barely covers the tariff, indicating a need for the MWP to rise if the tariff remains unchanged [10]. - Existing inventory can buffer the market temporarily, but it will deplete quickly, leading to potential price increases if the tariff situation does not change [10]. Metals Activity Summary - China's steel output has slowed sharply, reaching its lowest rate since 2018, with a 5% drop compared to previous months [9]. - The annualized run-rate of steel production in China is at 967 million tons (Mt), suggesting a potential peak in production for 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [9] Core Insights - Property sales and home prices are expected to continue declining in the third quarter due to high secondary inventory and weakening resident sentiment [1][2] - Quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high visibility are recommended for investment, with CR Land identified as a top pick [1][2] Monthly Property Sales - Home sales weakened further, with primary sales volume in 65 cities down 11% year-on-year and secondary sales volume in 33 cities down 5% year-on-year [3] - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at +0.1% year-on-year, while secondary sales are at +13% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025 [3] Property Prices - Housing prices are declining at an accelerated rate, with primary home prices in 70 cities dropping 4.1% year-on-year and secondary home prices down 6.3% year-on-year [4] - The decline in secondary prices for the top 10 cities is 5.4% year-on-year, while for the top 100 cities, it is 7.2% year-on-year [4] Secondary Market - Listing volume continues to increase, with secondary listing prices down 8.1% year-on-year [5] - New secondary listings increased by 6% year-on-year but decreased by 11% month-on-month due to seasonality [5] Inventory - Primary inventory levels in tracked cities remained stable at 23.4 months, with tier 1 cities decreasing slightly to 14.2 months [6] Land Market - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by 13.8% year-on-year in gross floor area, while the value increased by 17.8% year-on-year [7] - The year-to-date land sales decline in gross floor area is now at -6.4% year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Overweight" for several companies including Oracle, Dassault Systemes, and HBX Group International [12]. Core Insights - Oracle has provided a bullish outlook for FY26, projecting RPO growth of over 100%, Cloud growth exceeding 40%, and OCI growth above 70% [4]. - HBX Group's CEO highlighted opportunities in the Experiences market and growth regions like China and Latin America, enabling HBX to grow at twice the market rate [2]. - Dassault Systemes presented a strong product vision but faced scrutiny over financial targets, with a reduction in outlook that may not fully satisfy investors [3]. Company-Specific Summaries Oracle - Oracle's 4Q25 results showed a lackluster bookings quarter, but management's FY26 outlook remains optimistic, suggesting shares may be undervalued if forecasts are met [4]. HBX Group - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of €740-€790 million and adjusted EBITDA of €430-€450 million, with a high-single digit revenue growth forecast [15]. Dassault Systemes - The company anticipates total revenue growth between 6% to 8% and aims for an adjusted EBIT margin guidance of 32.6% to 32.9% [15]. Adobe - Adobe's Q2 results were in line with expectations, but the key investor question revolves around when AI innovations will significantly impact performance [4]. Accenture - Accenture's management raised the lower end of FY25 growth guidance by 100 basis points to 6-7% year-over-year, supported by large deal conversions [5]. Wix.com - Wix.com experienced a reduction in constant currency FY25 guidance, raising concerns despite solid Q1 results [6]. Other Companies - Companies like Amadeus, SAP, and Sage Group also received "Overweight" ratings, with specific revenue growth targets outlined for FY25 and beyond [12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - India is expected to gain a significant share in global output due to strong foundational factors such as population growth, democracy, macro stability, infrastructure improvements, and a rising entrepreneurial class [5] - The market implications suggest that lower oil intensity in GDP and a rising share of exports, particularly in services, will lead to lower real interest rates and reduced volatility, supporting higher price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [6] - The report outlines a framework for forecasting India's equity market, emphasizing the complexity of market behavior driven by macro factors, liquidity, corporate fundamentals, valuations, and sentiment [7] Summary by Sections Fundamental Implications of India's Decade - India is projected to become a leading consumer market and undergo a major energy transition, with credit to GDP expected to rise and manufacturing gaining a larger share of GDP [5] Market Implications of India's Decade - The reduction in oil intensity and the increase in service exports will help lower savings imbalances, allowing for sustained lower interest rates and reduced inflation volatility, which in turn supports higher PE ratios [6] Framework for Forecasting India's Equity Market - The report identifies five key factors influencing market behavior: macro and political conditions, liquidity, corporate fundamentals, valuations, and sentiment [7] India's Transformation - Long-term demographic advantages and a functioning democracy are highlighted as critical factors for growth [11] - A social revolution characterized by declining poverty and rising female empowerment is noted [21] - Macro-stability risks have decreased due to specific policy measures aimed at lowering inflation volatility [28] - Significant improvements in infrastructure are underway, with ambitious targets set for various sectors [42] - An entrepreneurial surge, particularly in deep tech and ag tech, is expected to drive innovation and growth [47] - The creation of a domestic risk capital pool is anticipated to enhance investment in equities [49] - India is developing world-class digital infrastructure, which is crucial for economic growth [52] Implications of India's Transformation - India's contribution to global output is expected to rise significantly, with a shift in market structure towards lower beta and higher PE ratios [58][64] - An emergent consumption revolution is anticipated, making India an attractive market for multinational corporations [70] - The energy sector is poised for transformation, with rising energy consumption projected [73] - Manufacturing is likely to gain a larger share of the economy, supported by favorable policies [76] - Lending activity is expected to boom, driven by increased credit creation [79] How to Play the Equity Market - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding market behavior through various indicators, including macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, corporate fundamentals, valuations, and sentiment [86] - It highlights the need for investors to consider the complex interplay of these factors when making investment decisions [86]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [8] Core Insights - Total server shipments grew by 22% year-over-year (y/y) in 1Q25, primarily driven by cloud demand for both AI and general servers [1][2] - AI server shipments are expected to continue growing sequentially throughout 2025 [1][15] - High-end server shipments saw significant growth, increasing by 491% y/y in 1Q25, indicating strong demand for AI servers [12][13] Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - Global server shipments totaled 3.9 million units in 1Q25, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) but a robust increase of 22% y/y [2] - The US market outperformed other regions with a 43% y/y growth in shipments, while Western Europe experienced a decline of 7% y/y [11] Segment Analysis - High-end servers outperformed with a 491% y/y growth, followed by mid-range servers at 143% y/y and entry-level servers at 12% y/y [12] - In terms of value, high-end servers rose by 679% y/y, while mid-range and entry-level servers increased by 179% y/y and 12% y/y, respectively [13] Vendor Performance - ODM direct shipments increased by 50% y/y in 1Q25, with a market share of 47.4%, up 10 percentage points from the previous quarter [14][15] - Major vendors like Dell, HP, and Lenovo saw declines in market share, with Dell at 9.1% and Lenovo at 4.9% [15] Stock Implications - Preference for ODMs/OEMs over components, with specific companies highlighted for investment potential including Giga-Byte, Hon Hai, and Quanta [7]