Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies mentioned [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Apple (AAPL) is reinforcing its position as a platform of choice for existing users, but limited AI updates imply few switchers in the upcoming iPhone cycle [8]. - Amphenol (APH) is assessed for its long-term AI content growth story, with expectations for AI revenue to grow significantly from approximately $1 billion last year to around $7 billion next year, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9]. - Qualcomm (QCOM) is noted for its strategic acquisition of Alphawave IP for $2.4 billion, which is expected to enhance its position in the datacenter market and drive significant operating leverage [12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Apple (AAPL) - The updates from the WWDC event were incremental, with no major surprises that would change the outlook for iPhones or other devices. The redesigns are significant but lack updates on key AI integrations, which moderates expectations for the iPhone 17 cycle [8]. Amphenol (APH) - The report provides a roadmap for AI cable connector content growth, projecting an increase from ~$1 billion to ~$7 billion in revenue. The anticipated adoption of new technologies is expected to support mid-teens organic growth, with a 15% EPS upside versus consensus for 2026 [9]. Qualcomm (QCOM) - The acquisition of Alphawave IP is seen as strategically important for enhancing Qualcomm's capabilities in the datacenter market, with an estimated total addressable market (TAM) of $33 billion by 2027. The deal is expected to provide synergies and significant operating margins once scaled [12].

Our 2025 year-ahead outlook built off two propositions: momentum in the business cycle at the turn of the year was solid, and policy risks were bidirectional. In the subsequent six months that solid momentum has continued, with steady growth in jobs and spending. And as we have gotten more clarity on policy it has been a mixed bag, as expected, but we think tilting in a less growth-friendly way. Most notably, tar- iffs and trade policy have been the biggest driver of our fore- cast revisions. The stagflatio ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains its investment recommendations for the Asia EM Equity Strategy despite recent geopolitical events [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights Asia's vulnerability to oil price spikes, particularly following Israel's military actions against Iran, which have led to a rise in Brent oil prices to US$75 per barrel [2]. - Iran's oil exports, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.7 million barrels per day, predominantly reach Asian markets, exacerbating the region's trade deficits [3]. - Countries most affected by oil price increases relative to GDP include Thailand (7.2%), Korea (4.4%), Taiwan (4.1%), and India (3.1%) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Trade Deficits - Thailand has the highest oil and gas trade deficit at 7.2% of GDP, followed by Korea at 4.4%, Taiwan at 4.1%, and India at 3.1% [3]. - The overall commodity trade balance for Asia shows a deficit of 3.5%, with significant variations across countries [3]. Current Account Balance - The current account balance for Thailand is -1.0%, while India shows a more favorable position at 14.7% [3]. - The report indicates that the current account balance is a critical metric for assessing economic stability in the context of rising oil prices [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is Equal-weight [6] Core Insights - The company aims to drive growth in its 'red bottle' water segment without engaging in price competition, while the 'green bottle' SKU is limited to 550ml bottles with normalized promotions in 2025 [2] - Nongfu Spring is confident in achieving double-digit year-on-year sales growth in 2025, with management noting sequential month-on-month increases in market share for packaged water and tea products year-to-date [8] - The company is investing in point-of-sale refrigerators and enhancing management to improve distribution efficiency, with tea beverages now penetrating all existing water points of sale in urban areas [3] Financial Overview - The price target for Nongfu Spring is set at HK$33.00, indicating a downside of 15% from the current price of HK$38.65 [6] - Revenue projections show a growth from Rmb42,896 million in 2024 to Rmb63,233 million by 2027, with EBITDA expected to increase from Rmb18,187 million to Rmb26,137 million in the same period [6] - The company anticipates capital expenditures of Rmb6 billion per annum over the next two to three years [8] Market Position - The management has observed favorable trends in PET prices and better utilization rates, expecting stable net profit margins year-on-year in 2025 [8] - The company is trialing a new 'carbonated iced tea' product and sees potential for growth in functional drinks and juices [3][4] - Nongfu Spring is positioned to benefit from increasing demand for high-quality and value-for-money beverages, despite competition from ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, with a price target of $410.00, indicating a strong belief in the company's growth potential in the automotive and shared mobility sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China is leading in the development of Physical AI technologies, including autonomous vehicles (AVs), drones, and humanoid robots, which could significantly impact the global robotics landscape [3][4]. - The report outlines ten key factors contributing to China's dominance in the robotics sector, highlighting the strategic advantages and government support that facilitate rapid innovation and development [7][9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - Tesla Inc is rated as a "Top Pick" in the automotive sector, with a market capitalization of approximately $1,149.36 billion and a recent stock price of $326.43 [4]. Key Factors for China's Robotics Leadership 1. **Rare Earths Control**: China holds a significant share (65% in mining and 88% in refining) of the global rare earths market, crucial for manufacturing mobile machines [7]. 2. **Foreign Technology Transfer**: Historical joint ventures have allowed China to adopt and refine advanced manufacturing techniques, enhancing its automotive industry's capabilities [7]. 3. **Creative Destruction**: Government Guidance Funds in China promote innovation and competition, driving advancements in critical technologies [9]. 4. **Military-Civil Fusion**: The dual-use doctrine in China supports the development of technologies applicable in both military and civilian sectors, exemplified by the dominance of DJI in the drone market [9]. 5. **Demographic Incentives**: China's demographic challenges create a strong need for advancements in physical AI, fostering a cycle of innovation [9]. 6. **Public Enthusiasm**: High-profile public events in China generate excitement and interest in robotics, contributing to its development [9]. 7. **Education and Workforce Development**: China has a vast number of vocational students (35 million) compared to the US (923,000), supporting a skilled workforce for the robotics industry [9]. 8. **Subsidies and Incentives**: The Chinese government provides substantial R&D subsidies, allowing companies to compete globally in high-tech manufacturing [9]. 9. **Infrastructure Investment**: China invests 4.8% of its GDP in infrastructure, the highest globally, which supports efficient manufacturing and transportation networks [10]. 10. **Long-term Strategic Thinking**: China's historical approach to strategy emphasizes patience and long-term planning, contrasting with the more immediate focus often seen in the US [10]. Relevance to Tesla - The report suggests that Tesla's capabilities in physical AI, including data, robotics, and energy storage, position it well for growth opportunities that surpass traditional EV business models [15].

Global Commodities Research 12 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Metals Weekly Aluminum – Premium paralysis Global Commodities Research Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ali A. Ibrahim (44-20) 3493-6438 ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan India Private Limited See page 8 for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM64nGog6K9mGYZYV ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the robotics industry in Asia Pacific, with a specific focus on China [2]. Core Insights - Robotics penetration is accelerating, driven by advancements in mobility and intelligence, which are enabling new use cases [2][6]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for China's robot industry is expected to double by 2028, reaching approximately US$110 billion, with significant growth in drones, mobile robots, and collaborative robots (cobots) [6][17]. - Supply chain opportunities are identified in market growth and localization potential, particularly in components such as sensors, vision systems, motors, and reducers [6][32]. Market Overview - The global robotics market is projected to reach US$122 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2020 to 2024 [21]. - China currently accounts for about 40% of the global robotics market, a figure expected to rise with the increasing adoption of intelligent robots [24]. - The report highlights that approximately 55% of robots globally are produced in China, indicating the country's pivotal role in the robotics supply chain [32]. Market Segmentation - The report categorizes the robot market into various segments, including traditional industrial robots, service robots, drones, and humanoid robots, with specific growth rates projected for each category [20][21]. - By 2028, the TAM for components used in robotics is anticipated to reach US$40 billion, with a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2028 [32][31]. Localization and Supply Chain - The localization rate of key components in China's robotics supply chain is increasing, with batteries, LiDAR, and vision sensors leading in localization [37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localization in enhancing cost efficiencies and driving the next generation of robotics development in China [28][84]. Technological Trends - AI technologies are lowering barriers to automation, enabling users with minimal experience to customize robot programs [121][124]. - The integration of digital twin technology is optimizing manufacturing processes before real deployment, enhancing efficiency and reducing waste [128][133]. Case Studies - The report includes case studies demonstrating the impact of robotics on various industries, such as automotive, solar, and agriculture, showcasing significant improvements in productivity and cost reductions [85][100][119].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to enhance its manufacturing capabilities, particularly in robotics and autonomous vehicles, drawing parallels to the G.I. Bill of 1944 which supported workforce integration for veterans [3][4]. - China's manufacturing dominance, with a 29% share of global manufacturing compared to the U.S.'s 17% as of 2023, serves as both a wake-up call and a model for the U.S. to follow [4]. - The report highlights the importance of attracting and retaining skilled talent in the automotive sector, especially as companies like General Motors and Ford transition towards AI-enabled robotics [11]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The G.I. Bill provided various benefits to veterans, establishing a foundation for workforce integration that continues to influence employment programs today [3]. - The Lincoln Technical Institute was founded in 1946 to help veterans transition their military skills into civilian careers, including automotive training [4]. Current Manufacturing Landscape - U.S. manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has declined from 28% in 1948 to less than 10% today, indicating a significant shift in the industry [4]. - The report notes that the U.S. must revitalize national policies to develop human talent necessary for the future of manufacturing, particularly in the physical AI economy [12]. Implications for Major Automakers - General Motors and Ford face challenges in attracting new talent as they evolve towards AI and robotics, with competition from tech companies intensifying [11]. - The experience of GM and Ford in China over the past four decades may provide valuable insights as the industry progresses [11]. Industry Ratings - The report includes specific ratings for various companies within the automotive sector, with notable mentions such as: - Ford Motor Company: Equal-weight [75] - General Motors Company: Equal-weight [75] - Tesla Inc: Overweight [75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several companies including China Resources Land, China Overseas Land, and Longfor Group, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [24][26]. Core Insights - The potential reopening of the offshore bond market for non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) is highlighted by Seazen's consideration to issue USD bonds, which could symbolize a shift in market conditions [1][4]. - The report suggests that while Seazen's bond issuance may lower refinancing risk, the associated costs (estimated at 11-13%) are significantly higher than existing bonds (4-5%), making alternative refinancing options more attractive [1][5][8]. - Improving operating cash flows and new policies to boost property sales are seen as more sustainable methods for reviving developers in the sector [1]. Summary by Sections Offshore Bond Market - Seazen is considering raising USD 200-300 million through a bond offering, marking the first issuance by a non-SOE developer in two years, which may indicate a reopening of the offshore bond market [4][8]. - The proposed bond issuance is viewed as a positive liquidity signal for Seazen, potentially reducing its refinancing risk [4][5]. Refinancing Alternatives - The report identifies shareholder loans and commercial property loans as more cost-effective refinancing options compared to USD bonds, with costs significantly lower (e.g., Vanke at 2.34% and Longfor at 3-4%) [8][15]. - Leading SOE developers are unlikely to pursue USD bonds due to high costs, preferring onshore funding channels [8]. Investment Recommendations - Top equity picks include CR Land and CR Mixc, with additional upside potential seen in Longfor, COPH, and Jinmao [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [8] Core Insights - Total server shipments grew 22% year-over-year (y/y) in 1Q25, primarily driven by cloud demand for both AI and general servers [1][2] - AI server shipments are expected to continue growing sequentially throughout 2025 [1][15] - High-end server shipments saw significant growth of 491% y/y in 1Q25, indicating strong demand for AI servers [12][13] Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - Global server shipments totaled 3.9 million units in 1Q25, reflecting a slight decrease of 1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) but a robust increase of 22% y/y [2] - The US market outperformed with shipments up 43% y/y, while Western Europe saw a decline of 7% y/y [11] Segment Analysis - High-end servers grew 491% y/y, mid-range servers increased 143% y/y, and entry-level servers rose 12% y/y [12] - The aggregate ODM direct shipments reached 1,857k units, marking a 50% y/y increase [4][14] Vendor Performance - ODM direct market share increased to 47.4% in 1Q25, up 10 percentage points from the previous quarter [15] - Major vendors like Dell, HP, and Lenovo experienced declines in market share, with Dell at 9.1% and Lenovo at 4.9% [15] Stock Implications - Preference for ODMs/OEMs over components, with specific recommendations for companies such as Giga-Byte, Hon Hai, and Quanta [7]