Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, while maintaining an "Equal Weight" (EW) rating for Kuaishou, Bilibili, JD, Mango Excellent Media, Focus Media, iQIYI, and Baidu, and a "Underweight" (UW) rating for Weibo [4]. Core Insights - The Chinese advertising industry is projected to grow by 11.6% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 1.8 trillion, an increase from the previous forecast of 7% [2][28]. - Online advertising growth is expected to rise from 8% to 12%, while offline advertising growth is revised down from 2% to 1% [2][28]. - Key growth areas in online advertising include short video ads (upgraded growth rate from 13% to 21%), social ads (from 8% to 12%), and e-commerce ads (from 8.3% to 10.8%), while search ads are expected to decline from a growth of 1% to a decrease of 7% [2][28]. Demand-Side Long-Term Trends - Advertisers are concentrating their budgets on fewer platforms, with the average number of platforms used decreasing from 10.1 in 2022 to 8.1 in 2025 [33]. - There is a growing preference for online advertising, with performance advertising expected to increase from 63% to 66% of total budgets by 2025 [36]. - Advertisers are shifting focus from brand awareness to customer purchases, indicating a change in marketing priorities [40]. Competitive Landscape - Short video and social ads continue to lead in popularity, with Douyin, WeChat, and Tencent Video Accounts expected to outperform Kuaishou [3][50]. - Major share gainers include Douyin, Tencent (WeChat, Tencent Video Accounts), and Meituan, while share losers are Weibo, Baidu, and iQIYI [3][50]. AI Integration - AI-enabled advertising tools are enhancing efficiency, reach, and effectiveness for leading internet advertising companies, allowing them to capture more market share [3][50]. - The report suggests that companies with limited improvements in advertising efficiency may see a decline in market share [3]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends an overweight position in Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, with an equal weight on Kuaishou, Bilibili, JD, Mango Excellent Media, Focus Media, iQIYI, and Baidu, and an underweight position in Weibo [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a focus on the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential slowdown in investment opportunities [15][22][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant global growth slowdown, particularly in the US, with GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, driven by tariff-induced inflation and restrictive immigration policies [16][22]. - In the Euro area, growth is projected to remain around 1.0%, with inflation expected to undershoot the ECB's target due to a decline in private consumption and exports [17][22]. - Japan's economy is expected to show resilience, but inflation is moderating as the yen appreciates, leading to a hold on policy rates by the BoJ [18][22]. - China is anticipated to experience the largest slowdown, with real growth in 2025 expected to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2024, influenced by modest fiscal expansion and tariff impacts [19][22]. - India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy, with growth supported by domestic demand and fiscal policy, despite external headwinds [19][22]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly, with core PCE inflation peaking at 4.5% in Q3 2025, while growth stalls by late 2025 [16][22]. - The Fed is anticipated to maintain its policy rate throughout 2025, with potential easing starting in March 2026 [16][22]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - Growth is forecasted to be below potential, with the ECB expected to cut rates to 1.5% by December 2025 due to weak economic activity [17][22]. Asia Economic Outlook - Tariff uncertainty is expected to weigh on growth in Asia, particularly affecting capital expenditures [24][25]. - China's GDP deflator is projected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [56]. CEEMEA and LatAm Economic Outlook - The CEEMEA region may see growth acceleration despite global uncertainties, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to fare better than Mexico amid the global slowdown [21][26]. - Mexico is significantly impacted by elevated global uncertainty, while Chile and Colombia are affected to a lesser extent [26][22]. Global Strategy - The report emphasizes that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a recommendation to overweight US equities and core fixed income [29][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Laopu Gold is Equal-weight [5][6]. Core Insights - Recent demand in the second quarter to date remains healthy for both promotional and normal seasons, despite a recent decline and stabilization in gold prices [8]. - The company plans to open a new store in Singapore in late June 2025, expecting it to be one of the top-performing stores within its network [3]. - Laopu Gold aims to increase the mix of antique products, which currently account for 20% of total sales, with an average selling price (ASP) of over Rmb100,000 compared to approximately Rmb30,000 for regular jewelry [2][8]. Summary by Sections New Product Launches - Multi-color enamel Hulu necklaces launched on May 30 are well received among core customers, enhancing brand recognition [2]. Store Expansion Plans - There could be one or two additional store openings in 2025, with a target total of eight stores [8]. - New store locations include IFC and Xintiandi in Shanghai, MixC in Shenzhen Bay, IFC in Hong Kong, and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore [8]. Pricing Strategy - A price hike is anticipated after the 618 festival, with the exact timing still uncertain, but a potential increase in September 2024 is noted [2][8]. Financial Projections - The price target is set at HK$865.00, with a projected P/E ratio of 33x for 2025, indicating a PEG of 1.4, aligning with the overall Chinese consumer average [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as "In-Line" [3]. Core Insights - Chinese car manufacturers, including BYD, Geely, GWM, Chery, XPeng, Li Auto, Leap Motor, and Xiaomi, have committed to reducing supplier payment terms to less than 60 days, aligning with regulatory efforts to stabilize the auto industry [2][3]. - Shortening payment cycles is expected to benefit auto parts suppliers by potentially leading to shorter accounts receivable days and lower provision costs, although it may initially affect OEMs' working capital and operating cash flow [2][3]. - The long-term impact on cash flow volatility is anticipated to be positive, despite some immediate challenges for OEMs [2]. Summary by Sections Payment Cycle Changes - OEMs are expected to repay suppliers within 60 days, but the method of payment (cash, bank acceptance, or commercial bills) will influence liquidity periods [6]. - The duration required for quality inspections before the 60-day payment period begins remains uncertain [6]. - There are questions regarding whether shorter payment terms will lead to increased cash costs and how OEMs will handle suppliers offering longer payment cycles during bidding [6].

Investment Rating - Industry view is cautious [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and memory sectors, with a focus on potential recovery in the second half of 2025 impacted by tariff costs [7] - Long-term demand drivers include the reacceleration of AI semiconductor demand due to generative AI, which is expected to proliferate across various verticals outside the semiconductor industry [7] - The report indicates that the global semiconductor revenue peaked in the third quarter of 2024, with a forecasted decline in semiconductor exports from Korea since February 2025 [12][19] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The cyclical downturn is characterized by a shift from euphoria to pessimism, as indicated by the SOX Index performance [8] - Historical data shows that declines in semiconductor inventory days have historically signaled positive stock price appreciation [41] - The report notes that the domestic GPU supply chain may face dilution due to shipments of NVIDIA B30, impacting inferencing AI demand [7] Memory and Logic Cycles - Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with the report suggesting that memory share price peaks lead logic semis [42][43] - The report forecasts a significant increase in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market size, projecting it to reach US$64 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 107% from 2023 to 2027 [67] AI and Technology Trends - The report emphasizes the shift in value from hardware to application in the AI investment stack, indicating a growing focus on software and application development [73] - It is projected that local GPU revenue in China could grow to RMB 287 billion by 2027, driven by advancements in local manufacturing capabilities [90]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [9]. Core Insights - China's rare earth export restrictions pose significant risks to the global auto industry, potentially impacting FY25 guidance and catalyzing faster tariff negotiations between the US and China, as well as the EU and China [1][12][21]. - The auto sector heavily relies on rare earth elements (REEs) and magnets, with approximately 38% of NdFeB magnets used in automotive applications, particularly in electric vehicles (EVs) [5][12]. - The current shortage of REEs is beginning to disrupt the automotive supply chain, with several OEMs already experiencing production halts due to insufficient magnet supplies [6][14]. Summary by Sections Rare Earth Export Controls - China has implemented export controls on seven heavier rare earth elements, which are crucial for the production of magnets [3][4]. - Chinese companies dominate the global supply chain, controlling 65% of mined and 88% of refined mid to heavy rare earths, and over 90% of NdFeB permanent magnet supply [4]. Impact on Automotive Sector - The automotive industry is facing a shortage of magnets, which are essential for various components in vehicles, especially EVs [5][6]. - The average usage of REEs in EVs is about 3 kg per vehicle, compared to only 100 grams in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles [5]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The restrictions have already led to production shutdowns at several OEM plants, including Ford and Suzuki, with further disruptions expected as inventories deplete [6][14]. - The approval process for REE exports from China has slowed, complicating the supply situation for global manufacturers [4][15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential hit to FY25 guidance in the upcoming 2Q25 results, with OEMs likely to provide a range of guidance based on different tariff and REE scenarios [18]. - The situation mirrors the semiconductor shortage experienced in 2021, with the potential for significant downward revisions in global light vehicle production forecasts if REE shortages persist [17].

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - Global electric vehicle (EV) sales increased by 38% year-over-year (y/y) in April 2025, with China leading the growth at 51% y/y [1] - Tesla's global sales decreased by 17% y/y, with a notable decline of 15% y/y in the US market [1][8] - The top battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturers globally include BYD, Geely, and GM, while Tesla's market share has dropped significantly [7][27] Summary by Sections Global BEV Sales - Total global BEV sales reached 1,079,716 units in April 2025, marking a 38% increase y/y but a decrease of 11% from the previous month [7] - The leading BEV manufacturers in April 2025 were BYD (181k sales), Geely (101k sales), and GM (96k sales) [7][22] - Tesla's market share in the global BEV market fell to 7.9% in April 2025, down from 12.3% the previous month [7][27] Regional Performance - In the US, BEV sales decreased by 4% y/y to 95,427 units in April 2025, with an EV penetration rate of approximately 6.5% [14] - European BEV sales increased by 30% y/y to 214,288 units, with a penetration rate of around 19.9% [14] - China saw a significant increase in BEV sales, up 51% y/y to 662,541 units, with a penetration rate of about 30.2% [14] Top BEV Models - The top-selling BEV models globally in April 2025 included the Tesla Model Y (57k sales), BYD Seagull/Dolphin Mini (38k sales), and Wuling HongGuang Mini (36k sales) [30] - The total sales of the top 20 BEV models accounted for 41% of the total BEV sales in April 2025 [30] Battery Deployment - Total MWh deployed in April 2025 increased by 32% y/y to 66,771 MWh [11] - The top five cell suppliers deployed a combined 49,858 MWh in April 2025, compared to 38,889 MWh the previous year [11] Market Share Dynamics - Tesla's share of the US BEV market decreased from 46.0% last year to 41.0% in April 2025 [8] - The market share of other manufacturers such as BYD and GM has been increasing, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the industry [24][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for the healthcare sector, particularly favoring innovative drug-related companies such as Akeso and Innovent Biologics [17][20]. Core Insights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has shown resilience, recovering 32% from its lows after the announcement of tariffs, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI) which only recovered 19% [3]. - The report highlights the increasing confidence of investors in China's innovative drug R&D capabilities, supported by significant out-licensing deals to developed countries [3][4]. - The HSHCI is expected to potentially reach or exceed its 2023 and 2022 highs in the coming years, driven by strong sales growth and ongoing out-licensing deals [4][8]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - Recent news, including a ruling against President Trump's tariff authority, positively impacted the HSHCI, which rose by 4.2% on May 29, 2025 [2]. - The HSHCI has surpassed its highest point in 2024 but remains below its 2023 peak of approximately 4,400 and 2022 peak of around 4,600 [2]. Market Performance - The HSHCI's performance has been bolstered by key deals, such as the 3Sbio-Pfizer agreement worth US$1.25 billion, and clinical data presentations from China at ASCO'25 [3]. - The report notes that the number and value of out-licensing deals have reached record levels in 2023 and 2024, continuing into 2025 [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the current momentum in the China healthcare sector will drive the HSHCI higher, with expectations of reaching its highest point from 2023 [8]. - Concerns about potential corrections post-ASCO are downplayed, as there is strong interest from overseas investors in China's innovative drug companies [9].

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented demand driven by AI advancements and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of China's push for AI localization [4][8]. - The report highlights a decoupling between broader semiconductor cycles and AI growth, indicating that while overall semiconductor growth was slow at 10% year-over-year in 2024, AI-related demand continues to surge [10][13]. - Logic semiconductor foundry utilization is reported at 70-80% in the first half of 2025, suggesting that recovery is still ongoing [9]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Significant demand is anticipated from AI, with NVIDIA experiencing booming demand and its Days of Inventory (DOI) reaching a historical low [15]. - The report forecasts that the top six companies' capital expenditures (capex) will grow by 62% year-over-year to RMB 373 billion [30]. - China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio was 34% in 2024, expected to rise to 82% by 2027, with local GPU revenue projected to reach RMB 287 billion by 2027 [32][35]. Market Trends and Projections - The total addressable market (TAM) for cloud AI semiconductors is projected to grow to USD 235 billion in 2025, with edge AI semiconductors expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2023 to 2030 [49][60]. - Inference AI semiconductors are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 55% from 2023 to 2030, outpacing training and general-purpose chips [60]. - The report anticipates robust cloud capex spending of nearly USD 789 billion across 2025-2026, driven by major cloud service providers [49]. Supply Chain and Capacity - TSMC is expected to expand its CoWoS capacity significantly, with projections of producing 5.1 million chips in 2025 [61][70]. - AI computing wafer consumption is estimated to reach up to USD 15 billion in 2025, with NVIDIA accounting for the majority of this consumption [73]. - The report indicates that the semiconductor supply chain is under pressure, with GPU supply and demand needing time to align [70].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Aspeed Technology from Equal-weight to Overweight with a price target of NT$5,000 and raises Montage Technology's price target to Rmb100 from Rmb88 [6][35]. Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in perspective on cloud semiconductors, moving from a neutral stance to a positive outlook as a potential trough in cloud capital expenditures (capex) is anticipated in 4Q/1Q26, with US tariff impacts already priced in [2][33]. - Strong growth in US cloud capex is projected, with a year-over-year increase of 38% in 2025, marking it as the third strongest year of capex growth in the past decade [10][12]. - The report highlights that the market may be underestimating the upside risks associated with CPU and non-standard AI server demand, particularly with the ramp-up of GB racks and increased semi content in servers [9][4]. Summary by Sections Cloud Semiconductor Outlook - The report suggests that the cloud semiconductor cycle is likely to trough soon, with earnings revisions expected to bottom out and improvements in GB rack yield [2][3]. - General server demand has exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, driven by inference demand and alternative GPU solutions, indicating sustained demand into the second half [3][4]. Company-Specific Insights - Aspeed's earnings downgrades are believed to have reached a bottom, prompting an upgrade to Overweight due to anticipated earnings momentum [5][41]. - Montage is expected to benefit from the adoption of advanced interfaces by China server brands, with a projected earnings growth of 25% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [5][33]. Financial Projections - The report raises earnings estimates for Aspeed by 9% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 31% for 2027, while Montage's earnings are raised by 9% and 11% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][33]. - Montage's valuation appears attractive at 38x the estimated EPS for 2026, especially given the forecasted earnings growth [5][41]. Market Trends - The report notes that the cumulative capex from the top 11 global cloud players is expected to reach US$392 billion in 2025, representing 16.6% of their revenue, which is an all-time high [10][12]. - The anticipated increase in semi content in servers is linked to enhanced security functions, which will likely benefit companies with comprehensive product offerings [4][9].