Investment Rating - The report indicates a baseline forecast of global growth slowing from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with specific growth rates for major economies outlined [7][8][70]. Core Insights - The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is identified as a structural shock to global trade, significantly impacting growth across various economies [5][6]. - The report highlights that the trade shock affects economies simultaneously, pushing them below potential growth levels, with the US experiencing a notable decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [7][74]. - China is projected to see a slowdown in real growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points in 2025 compared to 2024, with persistent deflation expected [7][17]. - India is noted as the fastest-growing economy in the coverage, with real GDP growth forecasted at 5.9% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026 [7][68]. Summary by Sections Growth – A Widespread Deceleration - Global growth is forecasted to decelerate significantly, with the US, Euro area, and China all experiencing reduced growth rates due to trade shocks and other economic factors [7][70]. - The report anticipates that the US will face a step down in real GDP growth, while the Euro area will not exceed 1% growth throughout the forecast period [7][8]. Inflation Divergence - The report discusses a divergence in inflation trends, with the US experiencing a temporary boost in inflation due to tariffs, while other regions like the Euro area and Japan see inflation moderating [16][17]. - Core PCE inflation in the US is expected to peak at 4.5% before declining, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target throughout 2026 [16][17]. Monetary Policy – The Fed in a Bind - Central banks are expected to react to slower growth and softer inflation, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain its policy stance until inflation peaks [18][19]. - The report forecasts that the Fed will restart its easing cycle in March 2026, while the ECB is expected to continue its easing cycle, bringing the policy rate below neutral [18][19]. Global Trade – A New Paradigm - The report emphasizes that the trade shock is a significant factor affecting global economic performance, with uncertainty in trade policy leading to reduced capital expenditure decisions globally [6][74]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to create a level shift in prices, affecting consumption patterns and overall economic growth [61][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US equities and core fixed income, while being Neutral on global stocks and Underweight (UW) on commodities [6][40]. Core Insights - The global economy is expanding but at a slower pace, with the US expected to achieve approximately 1% growth year-over-year. Despite policy uncertainties, US assets are projected to outperform those in the rest of the world (RoW) [40][42]. - A weaker US dollar is anticipated due to converging US rates and growth with peers, alongside increased currency hedging flows benefiting safe-haven currencies like EUR, JPY, and CHF [9][42][91]. - The report emphasizes a preference for US equities over RoW, with a constructive outlook on core fixed income [40][42][91]. Cross-Asset Strategy - The report suggests a strong regional preference for US assets across various classes, recommending an Overweight in US equities and core fixed income while being Neutral on global equities [6][40]. - US Treasury yields are expected to remain range-bound until late 2025, with a forecasted 10-year yield of 3.45% by 2Q26 [8][40]. Global Equities - US stocks are projected to benefit from earnings revisions and a weaker dollar, with the S&P 500 target set at 6,500 by 2Q26 [7][38]. - The report anticipates that trade tensions will de-escalate, reducing recession risks and supporting equity valuations [50][91]. G10 Rates - The report forecasts a steeper yield curve in the US, UK, and euro area, while Japan's curve is expected to flatten. The anticipated 10-year UST yield is 3.45% by 2Q26 [8][40]. FX Outlook - The USD is expected to weaken by approximately 10% by the end of 2026, with EUR/USD projected at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by 2Q26 [9][52][91]. EM Fixed Income - Emerging Market (EM) fixed income is expected to yield benign and positive returns, driven by mild inflation and lower UST yields. Specific countries like Brazil, Turkey, and India are highlighted for local rates, while Colombia and Morocco are noted for credit [10][40]. Corporate Credit - High-quality credit is viewed as attractive, particularly in the US, with spreads for US Investment Grade (IG) expected at 90 basis points and High Yield (HY) at 335 basis points by 2Q26 [11][40]. Commodities - The report indicates risks in the commodities market, particularly for Brent prices, while gold is expected to remain elevated. Brent is forecasted at $55 per barrel and gold at $3,250 per ounce by 2Q26 [13][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight (OW) position on India, Singapore, and UAE, while upgrading Brazil to OW due to deep value and high ROE. It remains equal weight (EW) on China and underweight (UW) on Taiwan and Korea [4][9]. Core Insights - The outlook for Asia and emerging markets (EM) is gradually improving, with a June 2026 target for MSCI EM raised to 1,200, implying a 3% return. Earnings estimates are 9% below consensus for end-2026, with expected EPS growth of 6% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 [3][75]. - India is projected to have mid-teens earnings growth, while Japan's TOPIX target is set at 2,900 for a 6% upside, reflecting a cautious EPS growth profile of 1% in 2025 and 8% in 2026 [5][76]. - The report highlights a favorable mix shift in investment over consumption, driven by global spending on security and emerging technologies, which is expected to create opportunities in long-cycle capital goods stocks [39]. Summary by Sections Asia/EM Market Outlook - The MSCI EM target is set at 1,200, with a 3% return expected. The report anticipates a tricky near-term outlook due to slower GDP growth and earnings downgrades [3][74]. - EMFX appreciation is expected to support USD index earnings, underpinning EPS growth forecasts of 6% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 [3][75]. Country-Specific Insights - India remains the largest EM overweight, with earnings growth projected at mid-teens. Brazil is upgraded to OW due to deep value and high ROE [4][9]. - Japan's TOPIX target is set at 2,900, with a cautious EPS growth profile, reflecting a higher target multiple of 13.8x [5][76]. Sector Preferences - Preferred sectors include financials, industrial supply chain diversification beneficiaries, and AI adoption leaders. The report favors domestic-focused businesses over exporters and semiconductors/hardware [12][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of corporate reforms in Japan and structural growth in India, which are expected to drive sustainable earnings growth [66][67].

May 20, 2025 06:21 AM GMT 中国医药板块正处于国内政策环境、创新管线的开发验证阶 段和全球化布局的三重拐点。在传统估值框架下，以上利好 因素仍然被低估。我们认为行业可持续的结构性增长和未来 丰富的催化剂会继续推动板块价值重估。建议超配：翰森制 药、中国生物制药、石药集团。 要点 国内政策变得更加友好；相对远离地缘政治风险。自2024年下半年以来，中国医 药行业迎来了一系列支持性政策，包括对创新药的全链条支持、VBP指引的微调以 及商业保险公司更多参与的支付改革。此外，大多数中国制药公司对美国的出口 敞口较低，这使得该行业能够更好地免受多变的地缘政治/美国药品定价动态的影 响。 创新药资产的催化效应将释放产品管线潜在价值⋯⋯ 根据我们的 SOTP 分析，尽 管传统产品组合仍继续拖累许多公司的短期增长，但对股票估值的贡献已经很 小。主要旧药的销售的下滑和触底可被视为相关股票的清算事件，以便投资者重 新审视管线价值和催化剂。 ⋯⋯以及来自全球领军企业的更多外部认可。全球医药市场规模是中国国内市场 的6.6倍。鉴于许多中国制药公司渴望最终成为真正的全球参与者，他们通过将对 外授权、新公司和直接 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, with a price target of $410.00, while the stock was priced at $349.98 as of May 16, 2025 [7]. Core Insights - Investors currently value Tesla's core automotive business between $50 and $100 per share, but this valuation does not account for the broader potential of the company, similar to how Amazon and Apple were initially undervalued [1]. - The installed base of Tesla vehicles is projected to reach approximately 50 million units by the mid-2030s, with each $100/month of Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) contributing an estimated $80 to $100 per share to Tesla's valuation [2]. - Tesla's energy storage business is highlighted as the fastest-growing and highest-margin hardware segment, valued at $67 per share, excluding potential recurring service revenue from stationary storage infrastructure [3]. - The humanoid robot market, represented by Tesla's Optimus, is seen as having a much larger total addressable market (TAM) than the automotive sector, with significant implications for labor substitution and valuation [4]. - The report emphasizes that Tesla's market cap of $1.1 trillion is largely based on businesses with limited disclosure or those not yet launched, presenting challenges for public investors [5]. Summary by Sections Automotive Business - The core automotive business is valued at $75 per share in the base case, with projections of 4.7 million units sold by 2030 and an EBITDA margin of 16.1% [13]. Energy Business - Tesla Energy is valued at $67 per share, with a projected 20-year revenue CAGR of 25.4% and a gross margin of 26.5% by 2030 [13]. Mobility and Network Services - The mobility and ride-sharing segment is valued at $90 per share, with a fleet of 7.5 million vehicles by 2040 and an EBITDA margin of 29% [13]. - Network Services are projected to contribute $160 per share, with a 65% attach rate at $200 ARPU by 2040 [13]. Overall Valuation - The total valuation in the base case is estimated at $410 per share, with a bull case reaching $800 and a bear case at $200 [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NVIDIA Corp. is "Overweight" with a price target of $160.00, while the stock closed at $135.40 on May 16, 2025 [4]. Core Insights - NVIDIA announced NVlink Fusion, enhancing interconnect technology for a broader ecosystem, which could boost communication infrastructure revenues [2][6]. - The company introduced RTX PRO servers aimed at the enterprise AI inference market, featuring advanced graphics cards and networking technologies [2]. - A new partnership with Foxconn and the Taiwan government was established to develop a supercomputer with 10,000 Blackwell GPUs, indicating strong R&D collaboration [2]. - Despite challenges from the US Commerce Department's ban on H20 in China, which poses a $5 billion headwind, there is a clear path for re-acceleration in the second half of the year [2][6]. Summary by Sections Product Developments - NVlink Fusion extends capabilities for custom ASICs and non-NVIDIA CPUs, potentially enhancing competition and customer choice [2]. - RTX PRO servers are designed for enterprise AI inference, featuring up to 8 Blackwell RTX Pro graphics cards [2]. - The DGX Spark and DGX Station workstations are nearing customer availability, with Spark launching in July 2025 [2]. Market Position and Challenges - The report acknowledges near-term challenges but emphasizes a strong potential for growth in the second half of the year [2][6]. - Intermediate-term concerns regarding cloud vendor support and supply chain bottlenecks are being addressed [2]. Financial Metrics - NVIDIA's market capitalization is approximately $3.39 billion, with a 52-week price range of $86.62 to $153.13 [4].

May 20, 2025 06:44 PM GMT China Economics Mid-Year Outlook Lingering Deflation Despite Tariff Detente We revise our 2025 GDP forecast upward by 30 bps to 4.5% due to reduced tariff headwinds. But deflation persists, as structural issues (housing, consumption) continue to exert downward pressure on prices. We expect lighter, delayed stimulus focused on infrastructure. Milder growth slowdown amid lower tariffs: 2025/26 GDP growth raised to 4.5%/4.2% YoY (vs. 4.2%/4.0%Y previously). We now see GDP YoY stabiliz ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the China property sector, expecting further moderation in sales and prices, with a full-year forecast of a 7% year-over-year decline in residential sales value [1][3]. Core Insights - The latest data from NBS indicates a continued softening in the housing market, with residential sales value dropping 6.6% year-over-year in April, marking a significant decline compared to the previous month [3]. - The report highlights that primary and secondary home prices have also shown signs of moderation, with primary prices declining by 0.12% month-over-month and secondary prices dropping by 0.41% month-over-month in April [3]. - New construction starts have seen a significant year-over-year decline of 22% in April, with expectations of a 13% decline for the full year of 2025 [3]. - Completions have softened considerably, with a year-over-year decline widening from 12% in March to 29% in April, forecasting a 25% decline for the full year of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - National residential sales value decreased by 6.6% year-over-year in April, a notable drop from a decline of 0.4% in March, and a 47% decline compared to the 4-year average [3][21]. - The report anticipates a further decline of approximately 10% year-over-year in June due to a higher base from policy easing in mid-May 2024 [3]. Price Trends - The 70-city home price index indicates a marginal widening in primary prices' month-over-month decline from 0.08% in March to 0.12% in April, while secondary prices fell by 0.41% month-over-month [3][7]. - The year-over-year decline in secondary prices is noted as the worst since October 2024, with tier-1 cities also experiencing negative month-over-month changes [3][11]. Construction Activity - New starts in April dropped by 22% year-over-year, with a decline of 71% compared to the 4-year average, marking the worst performance since October 2024 [3][40]. - Completions have also softened, with a year-over-year decline of 29% in April, leading to a forecast of a 25% decline for the full year of 2025 [3][47]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that if sales and prices deteriorate faster than expected, stronger government policy support may be rolled out, potentially leading to a market rally [1][3]. - The top picks for investment in the sector include CR Land and CR Mixc, with a tactical interest in turnaround stories such as Longfor, Jinmao, and COPH [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal Weight (EW) rating on Chinese equities within the Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia Pacific ex-Japan (APxJ) framework, reflecting a balanced outlook amid structural improvements and macro challenges [3][22][39]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural improvement in the Chinese equity market, particularly since the second half of 2024, driven by a bottoming-out of Return on Equity (ROE), government support for private sectors, and the emergence of technology leaders in AI, Tech, and Smart Manufacturing [2][11][42]. - Index targets for June 2026 have been raised, with projected upside of 3% to 5% for major indices such as MSCI China, Hang Seng, HSCEI, and CSI300, reflecting improved earnings and valuation forecasts [2][19][30]. Summary by Sections Structural Improvements - The report notes that structural improvements in the Chinese equity space are sustainable, supported by corporate self-help initiatives, shareholder return enhancements, and a favorable government stance towards private sectors [2][11][42]. - The MSCI China's ROE has improved from 9.8% in mid-2023 to 11.9%, with expectations to exceed 12.0% by the end of 2026 [47]. Market Dynamics - Recent partial de-escalation in US-China tariff tensions has alleviated investor concerns, contributing to a more favorable outlook for Chinese equities [12][19]. - The offshore market is preferred over the onshore A-share market due to a stronger CNY and less exposure to macro-deflationary sectors [4][39]. Sector Preferences - The report advises a balanced investment approach, favoring high-quality large-cap internet and tech leaders while underweighting energy and real estate sectors [5][40]. - Key trades for the second half of 2025 include increasing exposure to Hong Kong/ADR versus A-shares and selectively investing in Chinese AI/Tech leaders [41]. Earnings Outlook - Corporate earnings are showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged downward revision cycle, providing a cushion as global growth slows [13][14]. - The report anticipates moderate earnings growth for 2025 and 2026, with nominal GDP growth forecasted at 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively [23][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the crude oil market, indicating a seasonal demand support into Q3 but a softening of fundamentals thereafter [7][10]. Core Insights - Seasonal demand is expected to support crude oil prices into Q3, with a modest deficit anticipated during this period due to refinery maintenance and strong refining margins [10]. - The medium-term outlook is subdued, with rising supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries likely leading to a surplus by Q4 2025, which is expected to persist into 2026 [10]. - Demand forecasts remain unchanged at 0.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2025, significantly below the historical trend of approximately 1.2 mb/d, primarily due to economic uncertainties and lower growth in oil demand from China [10]. - Non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2025, driven by countries such as the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, which exceeds total demand growth [10]. - OPEC is expected to announce further production quota increases, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3 mb/d in 2025 [10]. - A surplus of 1.3 mb/d is anticipated in Q4 2025, leading to higher inventories and a decline in Brent prices to the mid-$50s by the first half of 2026 [10]. Demand Summary - Global seaborne energy imports indicate a softening in global oil demand, with European crude imports showing weakness compared to seasonal patterns [62]. - The consensus sees oil demand growing by 0.7 mb/d in 2025, which is well below the long-term historical trend of around 1.2 mb/d per year [65]. - The consensus demand estimate has decreased by approximately 0.45 mb/d over the last six months, primarily due to tariffs affecting oil-intensive sectors [69]. - For 2026, demand growth is expected to slow to around 0.6 mb/d, down 0.2 mb/d from previous estimates [72]. - Despite robust data in Q1, overall demand remains below late 2023 levels, with China's oil demand showing only a modest recovery [77]. Supply Summary - Non-OPEC supply has shown signs of re-acceleration after a flat period in 2024, with annualized trend growth projected at 1.7 mb/d [94][95]. - Recent months have seen downward revisions in consensus estimates for non-OPEC supply growth in 2025, primarily driven by the US [99]. - Growth in natural gas liquids (NGLs), biofuels, and others is expected to add 0.2-0.3 mb/d, bringing total non-OPEC liquids supply to 1.3-1.4 mb/d [100].