Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the US Communications Equipment industry, with a significant increase in data center capital expenditures (capex) projected for 2025 [1][8]. Core Insights - The data center market experienced a growth of over 50% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $134 billion, primarily driven by increased server spending, which constitutes more than 50% of data center capex [1][8]. - The top four cloud providers in the US and China are expected to account for approximately 60% of the market, with a projected 39% growth in their capex for fiscal year 2025 [2][8]. - AI training is highlighted as the main focus of data center investments, with expectations for the deployment of over 5 million accelerators in 2025, significantly impacting infrastructure investments [2][9]. - Major companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are anticipated to expand their general-purpose server units and data center projects, aligning with the growing demand for cloud services and AI capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The enterprise segment saw a 21% year-over-year increase in the first quarter, driven by a server refresh cycle, although potential macroeconomic factors could pose challenges [7]. - The report revises the 2025 growth forecast to 30%, indicating a multi-year capex expansion cycle among the top cloud providers [8]. Company-Specific Developments - Microsoft is on track to deploy its Maia platform in volume later in 2025, contingent on resolving early technical issues [3]. - Amazon, Google, and Meta are expected to significantly increase their server units, with Meta planning to establish data centers in 14 regions over the next 2-4 years [3][4]. - Oracle is projected to grow its capex in double digits in 2025, with plans for new data centers in seven regions [4]. Investment Projections - The report forecasts that the shipment of high-end accelerators will reach 5 million in 2025, translating to an accelerated server capex of $205 billion, which represents 34% of total data center capex [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a base case median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one rate cut being signaled [7]. Core Insights - The report outlines three primary reasons for a dovish stance from Chair Powell: three months of softer core inflation, rising continuing jobless claims, and softer housing data [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation Data - Core PCE inflation is projected to register an annualized rate of 1.6% over March, April, and May, indicating a slowdown from stronger readings earlier in the year [9]. - The decline in shelter inflation is expected to continue due to weak housing activity and a decrease in Case-Shiller house prices [9]. Labor Market - Continuing jobless claims have risen to 1,956,000, the highest level since 2021, while initial jobless claims remain lower, suggesting weak hiring conditions [9]. - The labor market is perceived as "resilient" with 139,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in May, but recent data adds caution to Powell's outlook [9]. Housing Market - The housing sector is contracting, with prices, permits, and starts for single-family homes all declining. The NAHB index fell to 32, the lowest since 2022, particularly weak in the South [9]. - Current mortgage rates are contributing to the contraction in the housing market, indicating that interest rates remain restrictive and may need to be reduced [9].

Flash | 19 Jun 2025 10:02:24 ET │ 12 pages Beijing Roborock (688169.SS) Model Update CITI'S TAKE We update our model to reflect its better-than-expected sales and weaker-than-expected NP in 1Q25. We have lifted our sales forecasts by 33%/44% and trimmed NP forecasts by 20%/10% in 25E/26E, to reflect Roborock's plans to accelerate investment into its branding and new categories in 25E. After our earnings revision, we expect its 25E topline to surge 53% YoY and 25E NP to edge up 2% YoY. While we expect NP to ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for global growth, projecting a slowdown to 2.4% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, with a modest recovery to 2.5% in 2026 [1][12]. Core Insights - The global economy has shown resilience in early 2025, but signs of strain from tariffs are emerging, particularly in global trade indicators [1][2]. - The front-loading of purchases in anticipation of tariffs has temporarily boosted imports, but this effect is diminishing, leading to a forecasted slowdown in growth across multiple economies [3][22]. - Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs and fiscal policy, are significant risks to the economic outlook [4][52]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to slow down, with growth projected at 2.4% for 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and a slight recovery to 2.5% in 2026 [1][12]. - The resilience observed in the US and global economy over the past few years may be overstated, as tariff impacts are anticipated to become more pronounced [1][62]. Trade Indicators - US imports surged nearly 30% from October to March but fell sharply in April, indicating a potential decline in trade activity [2][22]. - PMIs for new export orders are below 50 for nearly 70% of major economies, signaling contraction in global trade [33]. Inflation and Central Banks - Global headline inflation has returned to 2%, with core inflation remaining above pre-pandemic levels, particularly in services [35][38]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to favor growth, with potential rate cuts later in the year as economic activity weakens [6][43]. Country-Specific Insights - The US economy is projected to grow at 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with inflation expected to rise to around 3% by year-end [64]. - Emerging markets are expected to see growth of 3.8% in 2025, with significant variations across countries [64]. Risks to the Outlook - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose risks of rising oil prices, which could negatively impact global growth and inflation [50]. - Uncertainties regarding the future of tariffs and fiscal policy in the US add to the economic risks, with an effective tariff rate expected to settle around 15% [52][60].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Century Huatong is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb10.0 based on an 18x 2025E PE, reflecting a 15% premium to the current A-share gaming average of 16x [16] - XD is rated "Hold" with a target price of HK$44, based on a 19x 26E EPS, set at a 20% premium to China's online gaming peers [18] Core Insights - The China Online Gaming Industry is expected to see increased topline visibility and quality earnings growth due to more game companies preparing to launch key titles in 2Q/3Q25, which may lead to re-rating opportunities [1] - Century Huatong is highlighted as a preferred investment choice due to its successful operations of Whiteout Survival and significant revenue size among A-share gaming peers [16] - XD is considered an attractive beta play in a risk-on environment, leveraging its self-development capabilities and unique gaming community platform [1][18] Company-Specific Summaries Century Huatong - Century Huatong's overseas grossing from Kingshot doubled month-over-month in May, generating over US$75 million, indicating strong growth potential [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the performance of its titles, particularly Kingshot and Whiteout Survival, which are projected to contribute to greater topline upside in 2025E [2] 37 Interactive - 37 Interactive is set to launch Soul Land MMO on July 11, with pre-registration exceeding 8 million, indicating strong initial interest [3] Kingnet - Kingnet plans to launch Nobunaga's Ambition overseas on June 18, developed in collaboration with Tanda Games and Koei Tecmo [4] Perfect World - Perfect World is initiating the second beta for Neverness to Everness, with recruitment ongoing until June 17, suggesting potential for further game optimization and upgrades [5] XD - XD launched Etheria: Restart on June 5, achieving over 1 million downloads within two days and ranking in the top 3 for iOS downloads in several countries [6] - The title is expected to generate significant revenue, with estimates suggesting first-month grossing could reach Rmb100 million, with 50% from the US market [6] G-Bits - G-Bits launched Scepter & Sword on May 29, achieving a strong initial ranking in iOS downloads, although its long-term performance remains uncertain due to aging core game titles [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates Xiaomi shares as "Buy" with a target price of HK$73.00, indicating an expected return of 35.7% from the current price of HK$53.80 [5][16]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a 1% gain in smartphone market share and a 25%-30% growth in IoT for the full year of 2025, driven more by product strength than subsidies [2][4]. - Despite rising memory prices, Xiaomi maintains a gross margin (GM) target of over 12% for smartphones in 2025 [3][4]. - The company is committed to profitability in the home appliance market, focusing on operational efficiency and smart features to enhance its IoT offerings [4][9]. Summary by Sections Smartphone and IoT Market - The impact of the phase-out of China subsidies is diminishing, with only a 3% growth in smartphone shipments in 1Q25, suggesting that product strength is the primary growth driver [2]. - Xiaomi expects to achieve a 1% market share gain in smartphones and a 25%-30% growth in IoT for 2025 [2][4]. Home Appliance Competition - The home appliance market is experiencing intensified competition, particularly ahead of shopping festivals, but Xiaomi is focused on maintaining profitability without engaging in loss-making strategies [4]. - The company aims to ship 10 million air conditioners in 2025, leveraging its brand strength against white brands [4]. Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy - The upcoming YU7 model has seen strong initial customer registration, with 40% of registrants being new customers, indicating positive market reception [8]. - Xiaomi plans to expand its EV production capacity significantly by 2H25 and aims to enter overseas markets by 2027 [8]. Overseas Expansion and IoT Strategy - Xiaomi is expanding its international home appliance rollout, targeting significant growth in Southeast Asia and plans to enter Europe and Latin America [9]. - The company operates over 100 overseas Mi Home stores and aims to reach 10,000 stores within five years [9]. AI and Technology Development - The company does not expect AI smartphones to gain significant traction in the next 1-2 years but is enhancing foundational AI capabilities for future scalability [10]. - Xiaomi plans to launch AI smart glasses soon, focusing on improved user experience and upgraded features [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Direct shipments to the US have shown signs of recovery, with a 11.4% year-over-year increase in containership departures for the 15 days ending June 19th, indicating a potential trough in trade between the US and China [1][11] - The overall cargo throughput data has been mixed, with a contraction of -2.1% year-over-year in the week ending June 15th, contrasting with a reported 13.0% year-over-year expansion in another dataset for the week of June 7th-13th [1][4][8] - The report suggests that while there are signs of recovery in direct exports to the US, uncertainties remain due to tariff impacts and the reorganization of global supply chains [1] Summary by Sections Direct Shipments to the US - Containership departures to the US increased by 11.4% year-over-year in mid-June, suggesting a recovery from previous lows [1][11] - Bills for US seaborne imports from China contracted by -19.2% year-over-year in the week ending June 13th, an improvement from -35.3% the previous week [1][7] Cargo Throughput Data - Mixed signals in cargo throughput data, with a -2.1% year-over-year contraction reported for the week ending June 15th, compared to a +0.8% year-over-year increase the previous week [1][4] - PortWatch/IMF reported a 13.0% year-over-year expansion in container export volume for the week of June 7th-13th, indicating volatility in the data [1][8] Transshipment Trends - Transshipment via ASEAN is experiencing a temporary retreat, while direct exports to the US are picking up [1] - Containership arrivals at ASEAN ports showed a marginal moderation, with a 9.5% year-over-year increase in the week ending June 18th, down from 12.2% the previous week [1][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]

+1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com V i e w p o i n t | 13 Jun 2025 16:28:31 ET │ 21 pages US Economics Weekly Dovish developments CITI'S TAKE Upside risks to inflation are reduced after May inflation data showed no impact from tariffs on goods prices (yet) and services prices that have slowed further. Meanwhile, the rise in continuing jobless claims suggests that the labor market is loosening despite last week's 139k new jobs and still-low 4.2% unemployment rate. These developments likely will cast ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a scarcity of stocks with improving Return on Equity (ROE), leading to a cautious investment outlook for the S&P 500, particularly in the context of macroeconomic concerns and trade issues [1][10]. Core Insights - The number of stocks classified under the "Good ROE" category has decreased significantly, with fewer than 90 stocks meeting the criteria in the latest rebalance, compared to over 100 in previous quarters [2][9]. - The Positive ROE Trend baskets have shown consistent outperformance against Negative ROE Trend baskets, even during market downturns, reinforcing the notion that growth stocks are becoming a defensive investment strategy [3][14]. - Despite the widening performance spreads, the Positive ROE Trend baskets maintain justifiable valuations, with attractive PEG ratios compared to indices [4][20]. Summary by Sections ROE Trends - The report highlights a decline in the number of stocks with expected ROE gains, with fewer than 90 stocks in the Large Cap basket, down from over 100 in prior assessments [2][10]. - In Small/Mid Cap, a 100-stock basket is still achievable, but fewer stocks exhibit "Good ROE" trends [9][12]. Performance Analysis - The Positive ROE Trend baskets have consistently outperformed Negative ROE Trend baskets, indicating a robust investment strategy amidst broader market fluctuations [3][11]. - The performance spread between Good and Bad ROE stocks has remained persistent, suggesting opportunities for both long-only and pair trading strategies [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The Positive ROE Trend basket is characterized by higher P/E ratios but is supported by stronger EPS growth expectations, making it a reasonable investment despite higher valuations [4][20]. - The PEG ratios for the Positive ROE Trend basket are more attractive than those of comparable indices, indicating potential for growth [20][21]. Sector Exposure - The Positive ROE Trend basket is heavily weighted towards Industrials and Materials, while the Negative ROE Trend basket has more exposure to Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors [17][18]. - In the Small/Mid Cap category, the Positive ROE Trend basket shows a significant tilt towards Financials, Tech, and Industrials, with a notable growth style exposure [22][23]. Factor Correlations - The Positive versus Negative ROE Trend spread has shown mild positive correlations with various long/short factors, aligning closely with Growth and Size factors in the near term [5][26]. - The report emphasizes a unique approach to screening for improving quality metrics, differentiating it from traditional quality or growth frameworks [30][32].