Investment Rating - The investment rating for Laopu Gold is "Buy" with a target price of HK$1,084.0, raised from HK$979.0, indicating an expected return of 14.3% and a total return of 16.6% [7][26]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold has successfully narrowed its product price premium over mass-market gold jewelry, making its high-end products more appealing. The company is expected to sustain triple-digit same-store sales growth (SSSG) into the second half of 2025 if gold prices remain high [1][2]. - The company has reinvented the gold jewelry business model by using fixed pricing per item rather than weight-based pricing, which has led to a significant reduction in its price premium from approximately 20% to around 5% since mid-April 2025 [2][3]. - Laopu Gold is changing consumer perceptions of gold jewelry from a commodity to a storytelling artwork, enhancing its competitive landscape and allowing brands to focus on product development rather than price competition [3][4]. - The brand's premium image, characterized by customer experience and unique craftsmanship, is not easily replicable, reducing concerns about competition from copycat products [4][5]. Financial Summary - The net profit for Laopu Gold is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of Rmb 4,727 million for 2025, Rmb 6,459 million for 2026, and Rmb 8,016 million for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 220.9% in 2025 [6][19]. - The company expects to increase its prices by 9-10% in the second half of 2025, which could widen its price premium to 10-15% if gold prices remain stable [2][5]. - Laopu Gold's revenue is projected to reach Rmb 23,656 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 178.1% [18][19]. Market Position - Laopu Gold is ranked as the number one gold jewelry brand in China in terms of single-store sales for 2022 and 2023, with a market share of 31% in the gold jewelry segment as of 2023 [25][26]. - The company has a unique niche in "heritage gold," combining modern designs with traditional Chinese craftsmanship, which has contributed to its strong market position [25][26]. Valuation - The target price of HK$1,084 is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36x for 2025E, reflecting a premium valuation compared to global luxury peers due to its rapid growth outlook and strong product competitiveness [27].

Flash | 13 Jun 2025 05:24:14 ET │ 9 pages China Battery Materials China Battery Supply Chain on the Ground: Surprising ASP Hike in ESS Battery CITI'S TAKE According to ZE Consulting, the Top-5 battery makers' production pipeline is estimated to be largely flattish MoM to 103.8GWh. Within that, ZE Consulting estimates the production pipeline of CATL and BYD to be +3% MoM and -5% MoM, respectively. Key takeaways are: (1) CATL is lowering its in-house lithium supply ("客供量") to cathode names, indicating cathode ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mindray is "Buy" with a target price set at Rmb330, based on a DCF-based SOTP model [16]. Core Insights - The medical equipment sector is experiencing a recovery, with tendering growth of 78% year-over-year in May 2025, indicating strong demand and fiscal stimulus effects [1]. - Mindray is highlighted as a top pick in the medical equipment sector, expecting to see quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 2025 and both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year growth in Q3 2025 [1]. - The total intended medical equipment procurement since June 2024 amounts to Rmb31.5 billion, with Rmb12.9 billion already implemented, suggesting further recovery potential [2]. Summary by Sections Tendering Growth - Tendering amounts for key medical imaging products showed significant year-over-year growth: ultrasound (103%), MRI (107%), X-ray (108%), and PET/CT (186%) [3]. Company Performance - Mindray reported robust growth of 56% year-over-year in May 2025, while United Imaging experienced an 11% growth after a substantial surge in April [1]. Market Dynamics - The strong growth momentum in tendering is attributed to ongoing fiscal stimulus and the normalization of medical equipment procurement activities [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on aluminium and copper, recommending long-term buying opportunities, while suggesting a bearish trend for gold prices in the coming years [18][33][26]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook is challenging, with high US interest rates constraining growth, but potential stimulatory measures from the US government could improve sentiment and growth in the medium term [15][49]. - Gold prices are expected to consolidate around $3,100-$3,500/oz in the near term, but a decline to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz is anticipated by the second half of 2026 due to decreasing investment demand [18][26]. - Aluminium is projected to have a long-term upside of 20-40%, driven by demand from AI, datacentres, and decarbonization efforts, with limited supply growth expected [18][33][37]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary, Price Forecasts, and Conviction Ideas - Gold's investment demand is at an all-time high, with spending at ~0.5% of global GDP, but is expected to decline as growth sentiment improves [23][24]. - EUAs are forecasted to potentially reach €95/t by year-end, indicating a nearly 30% upside from current prices [18]. Global Macroeconomic Outlook - The US economy is facing high interest rates, which have constrained growth, but upcoming fiscal measures could stimulate economic activity [15][49]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Iran/Israel conflict, poses risks to oil prices but is not expected to significantly impact the base case scenario [55]. Precious Metals and PGMs - Gold prices are projected to fall by 20-25% by late 2025 and into 2026 as investment demand wanes [26][29]. - The report suggests that gold producers should hedge against potential price declines below $3,600-$3,700/oz [26]. Energy - The report anticipates a 25% Section 232 tariff on copper, which could lead to a premium for Comex copper over LME prices [18][41]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60-65/bbl by the second half of 2025, despite geopolitical tensions [55]. Industrial and Battery Metals - Aluminium is highlighted as a key growth area, with demand expected to outpace supply, leading to potential deficits [33][37]. - Copper is also expected to see significant demand growth, although it may experience short-term weakness due to tariff impacts [18][41]. Agriculture - The report does not provide specific insights on agriculture commodities in this section. Bulks - The report does not provide specific insights on bulks in this section. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a mixed outlook for various commodities, with bullish sentiments for aluminium and copper, while forecasting a decline in gold prices as global growth sentiment improves [18][26][33].

Investment Rating - The report provides a base case target for the S&P 500 at 6300 by year-end 2025, with a bull case target of 7000 and a bear case target of 5200 [5][14]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a volatile bull market in 2025, with a flattish first half followed by a stronger second half as macroeconomic factors stabilize [5][7]. - Earnings growth is expected to converge, benefiting small and mid-cap stocks as well as value sectors, while mega-cap growth continues to drive S&P 500 returns [9][50]. - The Federal Reserve's new normal of higher interest rates is not expected to be detrimental to US equities, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [10][11]. - The focus on productivity and leverage is critical for earnings growth, with an emphasis on operational efficiency [11][12]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The initial outlook for 2025 was for a flat first half, but tariff risks have led to a downgrade in earnings expectations, with a revised full-year index earnings estimate of $261 [5][6]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in earnings as tariff impacts diminish, leading to a modestly higher terminal multiple [5][17]. Sector Recommendations - Overweight sectors include Information Technology, Health Care, Communication Services, and Financials, while underweight sectors include Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, and Industrials [18]. - Industry group recommendations favor Software & Services, Media & Entertainment, and Semiconductors, while underperforming groups include Food Beverage & Tobacco and Consumer Services [18]. Earnings Growth and Valuation - The report indicates that the Magnificent 7 stocks returned nearly 48% in 2024, significantly contributing to the S&P 500's overall gains [20][22]. - Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected at 7.5% for 2025, with sector-specific growth rates varying widely [54][61]. - The report emphasizes the importance of comparing market cap weights to earnings weights to understand valuation implications [62]. Sentiment and Fund Flows - The Levkovich Index indicates a normalization of sentiment, moving from euphoria to neutral territory, which historically aligns with average forward returns [71]. - Equity mutual funds and ETFs experienced significant outflows in 2022-2023, but the trend turned positive in early 2024, although recent changes suggest a potential deceleration [74]. Buyback Activity - Aggregate buybacks for the S&P 500 are projected at approximately $950 billion, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase, driven by corporate strategies to manage capital expenditures amid tariff concerns [78].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the PCB industry, particularly for companies involved in AI-related applications, with specific mentions of WUS and Victory Giant as potential investment opportunities [1][4]. Core Insights - Taiwan PCB makers have experienced 15 consecutive months of year-over-year revenue growth, with a year-to-date (YTD) revenue increase of 20% [1][2]. - Taiwan CCL makers reported a 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year revenue growth, achieving a YTD revenue growth of 43% [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to strong demand from AI server and switch markets, particularly for ASIC products [1][4]. - Investor interest has shifted towards companies with clear capital expenditure and capacity plans for 2025-2026, particularly in the AI-PCB segment [1][4]. Revenue Trends - Taiwan CCL companies reported a combined May revenue growth of 27% year-over-year, marking the 22nd consecutive month of growth [2]. - Taiwan PCB companies recorded a May revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, continuing their growth streak for the 15th month [2]. - Year-to-date revenue growth for Taiwan CCL and PCB companies stands at 43% and 20% respectively [2]. Cost Analysis - The LME copper spot price increased by 4.7% in May, reaching US$9,548 per ton, while copper foil processing costs remained stable [3]. - The mid-price of epoxy resin decreased by 3.2% year-to-date due to oversupply conditions [3]. - Prices for electronic yarn and fabric showed slight fluctuations, with CPIC G75 yarn price down by 1% in May but up 2.9% year-to-date [3]. Investor Sentiment - Recent investor feedback indicates heightened interest in US ASIC-exposed companies and networking-exposed names like WUS, with expectations for upward revisions in earnings estimates for 2026 [4]. - Domestic investors have significantly revised their earnings expectations for Victory Giant, reflecting optimism regarding its AI-HDI yield and gross profit margin [4]. - There is a growing interest among Asian investors in upstream beneficiaries of the PCB supply chain, anticipating price hikes due to material upgrades [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Hydraulic is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb85.0, indicating an expected share price return of 22.6% and an expected total return of 23.6% [4][13]. Core Insights - The commencement of operations at Hengli's Mexico plant is viewed positively, as it will help mitigate the impact of US reciprocal tariffs, despite the plant's revenue contribution being limited to Rmb200 million-300 million in 2025, which is only 2%-3% of the projected revenue [1][3]. - In May 2025, while the overall excavator shipment growth in China decreased to 2% YoY, Hengli's excavator cylinder production surged by 51% YoY, indicating strong demand and restocking from US customers [3]. - Management anticipates that Hengli's revenue growth in Q2 2025 could accelerate to double-digit YoY growth, up from 3% YoY in Q1 2025, driven by increased production guidance [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hengli hosted an opening ceremony for its Mexico plant on June 11, 2025, and plans to start production of excavator components for US clients [1]. Financial Projections - The revenue target for the Mexico plant is set at Rmb200 million-300 million for 2025, contributing minimally to the overall revenue forecast [1]. - The expected dividend yield is 1.0%, contributing to the total expected return of 23.6% [4]. Production and Market Trends - The production guidance for June 2025 is set at 55,000 units, which is 28% higher than the actual output of 34,200 units in June 2024 [3]. - The overall excavator shipment growth in China has slowed, but Hengli's production has significantly outperformed this trend, indicating a strong market position [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on oil prices, expecting Brent crude to decline to $60-65 per barrel in the coming months from current levels of $68-70 per barrel [1] Core Insights - Ongoing geopolitical tensions provide a selling and hedging opportunity for oil producers, particularly in light of potential military actions involving Iran [1] - The report suggests a 60% chance of a US/Iran nuclear deal, which could lead to increased oil supply and lower prices [1] - If substantial progress is made in the upcoming Oman meeting, Brent prices are expected to revert to the mid-$60s per barrel range [5][24] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Context - The geopolitical situation is currently contained, with scheduled meetings between the US and Iran, and discouragement of military action from the US [2][10] - Many Gulf states are now more supportive of engaging Iran compared to a decade ago, indicating a shift in regional dynamics [10] Price Projections - In the event of a nuclear deal, Brent prices could drop to around $60 per barrel or lower, with WTI potentially falling to the low-$50s per barrel [6][26] - Conversely, if military actions escalate, prices could temporarily surge to $75-80 per barrel [3][23] Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that similar geopolitical tensions have previously led to price increases of approximately $6-8 per barrel [4][11] - Managed money net length changes could also influence price movements, with potential for a price rise if positioning shifts occur [16][17] Supply Considerations - An increase in unsanctioned Iranian oil supply could further depress prices, especially if Iran raises production by an additional 0.5 million barrels per day [5][26] - OPEC+ may slow or pause its production return in response to falling prices, which could set the stage for a future price recovery [6][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the ADA 2025 meeting presentations [2]. Core Insights - The upcoming American Diabetes Association (ADA) meeting is expected to showcase significant presentations from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, particularly focusing on diabetes and obesity treatments [1][3]. - Innovent is anticipated to present data on its Phase 3 study of Mazdutide for Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) and preclinical data for a multi-target candidate involving GLP-1, GIP, GCG, and PCSK9 [1][3]. - There is a growing interest from large pharmaceutical companies in the obesity treatment space, suggesting potential for increased collaborations following the generation of more clinical data [1]. Summary by Sections Presentations at ADA 2025 - Innovent will present the DREAMS-1 Phase 3 study results for Mazdutide and preclinical data for a novel antibody-peptide conjugate targeting multiple receptors [3]. - Huadong will showcase a Phase I study of HDM1005, a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, focusing on safety and tolerability [3]. - Sciwind Biosciences is set to present data on Ecnoglutide, a GLP-1 analog for obesity, in a Phase 3 study [3]. - HighTide will present findings from a Phase 3 study of HTD1801, a berberine-based treatment for T2D [3]. - BrightGene Bio-Medical will discuss a Phase 2 trial of BGM0504, a GIPR/GLP-1R dual agonist for T2D [3]. Poster Sessions - Huadong will present a Phase 1b study of HDM1002 for obesity, targeting Activin Type II receptors [4]. - Laekna will showcase monoclonal antibodies LAE102, LAE103, and LAE123 as candidate therapeutics for muscle growth and fat reduction [4]. - Guanadona will present data on RAY1225, a GIPR/GLP-1R agonist, in studies for both obesity and T2D [4].

Investment Rating - The report has shifted its near-term investment pecking order to prioritize steel over other materials, indicating a positive outlook for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - Market expectations for a demand recovery in China remain cautious, with a focus on tracking high-frequency on-ground demand trends [1]. - Steel production in China has decreased by 2.4% week-over-week (WoW) and 4.3% year-over-year (YoY) for the week of June 6 to June 12, totaling 8.6 million tons [2]. - China's steel inventory as of June 12 was 13.5 million tons, down 0.7% WoW and 23.3% YoY, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Apparent steel consumption in China for the same week was 8.7 million tons, reflecting a decline of 1.6% WoW and 2.3% YoY [4]. Production Summary - Total steel production from the beginning of the year until now stands at 204.2 million tons, which is a decrease of 1.1% YoY [2]. - Specific production figures for rebar, hot-rolled coil (HRC), and cold-rolled coil (CRC) are 51 million tons, 76.5 million tons, and 20.7 million tons respectively, with varying YoY changes [2]. Inventory Summary - The inventory breakdown shows that steel mills hold 4.3 million tons and traders hold 9.3 million tons, with significant YoY reductions in both categories [3]. - The total inventory for rebar, HRC, and CRC is 5.6 million tons, 3.5 million tons, and 1.4 million tons respectively, with notable declines in rebar and CRC inventories YoY [3]. Consumption Summary - Year-to-date apparent consumption of steel in China is 201.6 million tons, which is a slight decrease of 0.3% YoY [4]. - The apparent consumption figures for rebar, HRC, and CRC year-to-date are 49.3 million tons, 76.2 million tons, and 20.8 million tons, showing mixed YoY performance [4].