2025 年 7 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 中国医药 理性看待创新药估值，寻找优秀公司的买点 MSCI中国医疗指数 2025年初至今累计上涨 41.4%，跑赢 MSCI 中国指数 25.2%。 短期来看，由于市场对于出海交易的频次和交易规模预期较高，创新药的估值持续 攀升，需理性看待股价上升空间。创新药属于高风险、长周期、高回报的行业。中 国创新药的研发实力具备全球竞争力，创新药出海趋势将长期持续。然而，由于创 新药的长周期特征，导致出海交易的达成往往需要较长时间的研发积累。 估值表 | | | | 市值 | 目标价 | 上行/ | P/E (x) | | P/B (x) | | ROE (%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司名称 | 股份代码 | 评级 | (百万美元) | | | | (LC) 下行空间 FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | | | | 三生制药 | 1530 HK | 买入 | ...

2025 年 7 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,888 | -0.76 | 40.13 | | 恒生国企 | 8,609 | -0.46 | 49.23 | | 恒生科技 | 5,230 | -0.08 | 38.93 | | 上证综指 | 3,473 | 0.35 | 16.75 | | 深证综指 | 2,074 | -0.49 | 12.87 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,130 | -1.57 | 12.63 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,406 | -0.94 | 17.82 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,230 | -0.79 | 30.61 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,413 | -0.92 | 35.98 | | 德国 DAX | 24,074 | 0.58 | 43.71 ...

百济神州 20250618 摘要 百济神州预计 2025 年实现经营利润和经营活动现金流为正，得益于泽 布替尼和替雷利珠单抗的销售放量，管理层预计全年销售收入将在 49 亿至 53 亿美元区间，业绩确定性强。 泽布替尼作为 BTK 抑制剂，头对头实验数据优于伊布替尼，巩固了其 best-in-class 地位，并能拓展 BTK 耐药后的治疗场景。预计 2024 年 销售收入超过 26 亿美元，同比翻倍增长，美国市场 CLL/SLL 适应症获 批后市场规模达 120-130 亿美元。 替雷利珠单抗 2024 年实现销售收入 6 亿美元，同比增长 16%，主要受 益于国内市场适应症扩大。其与泽布替尼共同决定了公司能否在 2025 年实现扭亏为盈。 百济神州海外市场收入占比超过 60%，美国市场同比增长 75%，欧洲 市场同比增长 80%。随着更多适应症获批及进入各国医保目录，未来海 外收入占比有望进一步提升。 2024 年公司整体收入 38 亿美元，同比增长 55%，主要推动因素包括 泽布替尼等产品。泽布替尼 2024 年销售额达到 26 亿美元，验证了公 司全球研发及商业化能力。 Q&A 百济神州在中国创新药领 ...

百济神州 20250608 摘要 百济神州目前市场关注的核心点包括：第一，公司指引今年（2025 年）在 GAAP 口径下实现经营利润转正，市场关心其盈利是否可持续及未来 3-5 年的 释放节奏。预期公司净利润率可达 10%以上。第二，泽布替尼作为公司核心销 售产品，其后续销售方案及分值变化备受关注。从获批上市以来，其预期从 20 亿美金逐步提升至 30 亿美金，再到 2023 年 1 月全线适应症获批后的 26 亿美 金。今年预计整体销售将达到 37 亿美金，同比增长 50%。第三，从竞争格局 看，Pirtobrutinib 对泽布替尼影响有限，新患者占比已超过 50%，预期未来 分值可达 75 亿美金。 泽布替尼未来发展前景如何？ 泽布替尼作为百济神州核心产品，其销售爬坡非常明确，今年（2025 年）预 计达到 37 亿美金，并保持 50%的增长率。从竞争格局看，新患占比已超过 50%，且随着 BTK 抑制剂大适应症 CLL/SLL 一线试用证在今年 Q1 入组完毕 并提交上市申请，我们相信其未来 3-5 年的销售放量前景良好。此外，公司还 计划启动两项三期临床试验，包括与礼来的非共价 BTK 抑制剂 P ...

Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Biotech Voyager as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access.My name is Bin He, from the startup company Binib Ltd. I got Ph.D. degree majoring in Engineering in 2007. I ever worked at several automotive companies to develop vehicle software for electric vehicles, including at GM as a software manage ...

特朗普宣称美国的处方药价格将会下降 30%—80% ，他要求美国患者必须有权获得 " 最惠国价格 " ，推 动药企建立直销渠道 Key takeaways: 美东时间5月12日，美国总统特朗普签署了旨在使药价下降的行政令。这项激进的政策如同一颗投入全球医 药市场的深水炸弹，引发资本市场震荡。尽管美股医药板块在政策细则公布后出现短暂反弹，但中国创新 药企的股价仍普遍承压，反映市场对于中国出海药企的盈利前景存在担忧。 根据行政令的核心内容，特朗普要求美国患者必须有权获得"最惠国价格"（Most-Favored-Nation Price，简 称"MFN"），即将美国药价限制在经合组织（OECD）国家中的最低水平，由美国卫生与公众服务部 以美国市场贡献一半以上收入的百济神州为例，其王牌产品BTK抑制剂泽布替尼在美国的定价为120粒 12,935美元（93,255元），这款产品在中国经医保谈判后的定价仅有64粒5,440元，算下来平均每粒药的价格 仅约为美国定价的一成。这种差异化的全球定价体系，意味着百济神州可能会直面MFN政策的冲击，一旦 药价大幅下调，很可能会影响其营收。 （HHS）推动药企建立直销渠道，绕过"中间 ...

Flash | | Price (07 May 25 16:00) | US$232.25 | | --- | --- | | Target price | US$345.00 | | Expected share price return | 48.5% | | Expected dividend yield | 0.0% | | Expected total return | 48.5% | | Market Cap | US$23,004M | Yigal Nochomovitz, Ph.D.AC +1-212-816-1441 yigal.nochomovitz@citi.com 07 May 2025 22:56:30 ET │ 10 pages BeiGene (ONC.O) Well-Positioned for The Long Game. Brukinsa Surpasses Calquence & Imbruvica in US Qtrly Sales, Reiterate Buy CITI'S TAKE The transformation to a global, Swiss-domi ...

Core Insights - BeiGene, Ltd. reported $1.12 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, marking a 48.6% year-over-year increase and an EPS of $1.22 compared to -$2.41 a year ago [1] - The revenue matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.12 billion, resulting in a slight surprise of -0.65%, while the EPS exceeded expectations with a surprise of +271.83% [1] Financial Performance - Product revenue totaled $1.11 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.12 billion by analysts [4] - Key product revenues included: - BRUKINSA (Zanubrutinib): $791.66 million vs. $820.07 million estimated - Tislelizumab: $171.16 million vs. $171.33 million estimated - XGEVA: $70.42 million vs. $56.55 million estimated - Other: $17.90 million vs. $14.28 million estimated - POBEVCY: $13.75 million vs. $16.11 million estimated - BLINCYTO: $23.91 million vs. $20.42 million estimated - KYPROLIS: $19.73 million vs. $16.51 million estimated - Collaboration revenue was $8.75 million, exceeding the $6.49 million estimate [4] Market Performance - BeiGene's shares have returned +15.4% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.6% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for the first quarter of 2025 increased by 48.6% to $1.117 billion, compared to $751.7 million in the same period of 2024[92] - BRUKINSA global sales reached $792 million, reflecting a 62% increase year-over-year, with U.S. sales growing by 60.2% to $563.2 million[96] - TEVIMBRA revenue increased by 17.8% to $171.2 million in the first quarter of 2025[97] - Gross margin on global product sales improved to 85.1% for the first quarter of 2025, up from 83.3% in the prior year[98] - The company achieved GAAP profitability in the first quarter of 2025, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of $251.2 million in the prior year[92] - GAAP net income improved to $1.3 million for the first quarter of 2025, compared to a loss of $251.2 million in the prior-year period[109] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the first quarter of 2025 were $0.00 and $0.01 per American Depositary Share, respectively, compared to a basic loss of $0.19 per share in the prior-year period[108] - Adjusted earnings per share - basic improved to $0.10 for the first quarter of 2025, compared to a loss of $0.11 in the prior-year period[110] Expenses and Costs - Operating expenses increased by 6% to $941.2 million, with research and development expenses rising by 4.6%[93] - Research and development expense increased by $21.2 million, or 4.6%, to $481.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $460.6 million for the same period in 2024[99] - External research and development expenses rose by $19.4 million, or 11.3%, to $190.8 million, driven by increased costs in development programs[99] - Selling, general and administrative expenses increased by $31.9 million, or 7.5%, to $459.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from $427.4 million in the prior-year period[104] Cash Flow and Debt - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaled $2.53 billion as of March 31, 2025, down from $2.64 billion at the end of 2024[111] - Total debt decreased to $923.6 million as of March 31, 2025, from $1.02 billion at the end of 2024, with $97.1 million paid down in the first quarter[111] - Cash provided by operating activities improved by $352.7 million in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, driven by significantly improved revenue and a $325.6 million increase in gross margin[114] - Net cash used in investing activities decreased to $121.9 million in Q1 2025 from $209.8 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a reduction in capital expenditures[115] - Financing activities used $33.8 million in cash in Q1 2025, a significant decrease from $162.3 million provided in Q1 2024, mainly due to a net reduction in short-term debt borrowings[116] - The company expects to repay approximately $763.5 million of loans in the next 12 months, with refinancing dependent on prevailing interest rates and credit spreads[117] - As of March 31, 2025, total debt obligations due in the next twelve months amount to $763.5 million, with long-term debt obligations at $160.2 million[124] Collaborations and Strategic Developments - Collaboration revenue rose by 84.8% to $8.7 million, primarily from agreements with Novartis and Amgen[94] - The company secured shareholder approval to rename itself to BeOne Medicines Ltd. and to redomicile to Switzerland[92] - The company has a remaining co-development funding commitment of $295.1 million under the Amgen collaboration for oncology pipeline assets[126] Market and Economic Factors - The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office invalidated claims of Pharmacyclics LLC's patent, benefiting the company's competitive position[89] - A 100-basis point increase in interest rates would increase annual pre-tax interest expense by approximately $6.2 million, given $624.9 million of outstanding floating rate debt[132] - The RMB appreciated approximately 0.6% against the U.S. dollar in Q1 2025, while it depreciated approximately 2.8% in the year ended December 31, 2024[133] Future Outlook - The company plans to host an Investor R&D Day on June 26, 2025, to discuss advancements in its late-stage hematology and solid tumor pipelines[92]

Financial Reporting - BeiGene, Ltd. filed its 2024 Annual Report with the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 28, 2025[5]. - The STAR Annual Report includes financial information for the year ended December 31, 2024, prepared in accordance with PRC GAAP[6]. - Financial information prepared under U.S. GAAP is also available, highlighting differences from PRC GAAP[6]. - The financial information includes production, sales, and inventory stock units for the reporting period[6]. Report Content - The report contains details on gross profit margin ratio and R&D expenses allocated by key products[6]. - The filing does not include any new product launches or market expansion strategies[8]. - No specific performance guidance or future outlook was provided in the report[8]. - The report was signed by Chan Lee, Senior Vice President and General Counsel[16]. Accessibility - The STAR Annual Report is publicly available in Chinese on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's website[7]. - The report is not deemed filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission[7].