兖煤澳大利亚（3668） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 产量逐季度恢复，公司业绩 符合预期  全年业绩符合预期，下半年产量回升：2023 年国际煤炭市场达到新的供需平 邹瀚逸 衡 ，煤炭价格回购理性，公司全年业绩同比下降。全年录得收入 77.8 亿澳元， 852-69539760 同比-26%。归母净利润为 18.2 亿澳元，同比-49%。主要受煤价下跌所至，公司 Robin.zou@firstshanghai.com.hk 全年动力煤均价为 211 澳元/吨，冶金煤为 356 澳元/吨，平均煤价为 232 澳元/ 吨，同比-39%。2023年公司积极恢复产能，H2煤炭产量恢复至历史高位。 陈晓霞  全年现金成本增长，下半年明显改善：由于公司产量减少原材料和用工成本 增长及公司额外增加机器和人员进行复产，公司全年现金成本为 96 澳元/吨， 852-25321956 同比增长 2%。其中中原材料基本持平为 33 澳元/吨；员工福利基本持平 22 澳 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 元/吨，同时运输费用及合约服务费分别上涨 1 澳元至 21 澳元/吨及 16 澳元/ 吨。虽然 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨， Teslascope 分享称，FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送， 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大，本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放，此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格，价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price adjusted to HKD 5.2, reflecting a 27% upside potential from the current stock price of HKD 4.1 [2][3]. Core Views - China Telecom has entered a high-quality development phase focused on improving efficiency and returns, with service revenue expected to maintain good growth over the next three years. The reduction in capital expenditure is anticipated to enhance operating cash flow [2][3]. - The company emphasizes precise cost management and structural optimization, projecting profit growth to outpace revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, China Telecom achieved revenue of CNY 513.6 billion (YoY +6.7%), with service revenue at CNY 465 billion (YoY +6.9%). EBITDA reached CNY 136.8 billion (YoY +5.0%), and net profit was CNY 30.4 billion (YoY +10.3%) [1][3]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 75% over the next three years, with a dividend of CNY 0.23 per share in 2023 (YoY +19%) [1][3]. Business Segments - Mobile communication service revenue was CNY 195.7 billion (YoY +2.4%), with a mobile ARPU of CNY 45.4 (YoY +0.4%). The number of mobile users reached 408 million, with a net increase of 16.59 million users [1][3]. - The digital industry segment saw revenue of CNY 138.9 billion (YoY +17.9%), with Tianyi Cloud revenue at CNY 97.2 billion (YoY +67.9%), indicating rapid growth and a focus on upgrading to intelligent cloud services [1][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the capital expenditure for 2024 will be CNY 96 billion, accounting for less than 20% of service revenue, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous year [1][3]. - The company is expected to focus more on the quality of revenue growth in its cloud services, transitioning into a phase of high-quality development [1][2].

中国海洋石油（883） 更新报告 买入 2024年3月28 日 桶油成本优势明显，资本支出预算上调 许尚青  业绩符合预期：公司 2023 年全年实现营业收入人民币 4166.09 亿 +852-25321539 元，同比下降 1.33%；实现归母净利润 1238.43 亿元，同比下降 tim.xu@firstshanghai.com.hk 12.60%。扣非净利润 1251.88 亿元，同比下降 10.74%。Q4 单季度 实现营业收入 1097.92 亿元，同比下降 1.16%，环比下降 4.32%。 陈晓霞 实现归母净利润 261.98 亿元，同比下降 20.45%，环比下降 + 852-25321956 22.68%。实现扣非净利润294.83亿元，同比下降10.57%，环比下 降 11.68%。业绩同比下降主要由于国际油价下降，价差缩窄影响 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 营收。派发 2023 年末期股息 0.66 港元/股（含税），全年股息 1.25港元/股（含税），股息支付率达43.6%。 主要数据  增储上产成绩明显：公司 2023 年油气净产量为 678 百万桶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 236.91 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 25.30% from the current price of 189.08 RMB [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 400.92 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%, and a net profit of approximately 44.12 billion RMB, up 43.58% from the previous year [1]. - The company holds a significant competitive advantage in the battery sector, with a global market share of 36.8% in power batteries and 40% in energy storage batteries, maintaining its position as a market leader [1]. - The company is expanding its international presence through partnerships, including a battery factory with Ford in Hungary, which is expected to have a capacity of 100 GWh [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 328,594 - 2023: 400,917 - 2024 (forecast): 428,773 - 2025 (forecast): 492,657 - 2026 (forecast): 538,627 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 22% - 2024: 7% - 2025: 15% [3][6] - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 30,729 - 2023: 44,121 - 2024 (forecast): 53,818 - 2025 (forecast): 61,034 - 2026 (forecast): 66,685 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 44% - 2024: 22% - 2025: 13% [3][6] - Gross Margin: - 2023: 22.91% - 2024 (forecast): 24.4% - 2025 (forecast): 24.5% [6] Cash Flow and Dividend - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of 928 billion RMB and cash reserves of 2,643 billion RMB at the end of the year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 220.6 billion RMB for 2023, which includes a regular cash dividend of 20.11 RMB and a special cash dividend of 30.17 RMB per share [1].

腾讯控股（700） 更新报告 金融科技与企业服务增速稳定：2023Q4 金融科技和企业服务收入录得 544 亿元人民币，同比增长 15%，增速上升主要得益于商业支付活动增加以及理 财服务及消费贷款收入增长。另外，企业服务收入同比约 20%增长得益于视 频号直播带货的技术服务收入以及云服务的稳定 增长。全年金融科技和企业 服务收入录得 2038 亿元人民币，同比增长 15%。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------|----------|----------|----------|-------|----------|-------|----------|----------------| | 盈利摘要 \n截至12月31日止财政年度 | | 22年实际 | 23年实际 | 24年预测 | | 25年预测 | | 26年预测 | 股价表现 \n450 | | 总营业收入（人民币百万元） | | 554,552 | 609,015 | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (3690) and sets a target price of HKD 130, reflecting a potential upside of 47% from the current price of HKD 88 [5][26]. Core Insights - Meituan's revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, driven by a strong recovery in local commerce and robust performance in core local business and new initiatives. In Q4 2023, revenue reached RMB 737 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, with a net profit of RMB 22 billion and a net profit margin of 3.0% [2][32]. - For the full year 2023, Meituan reported revenue of RMB 2,767 billion, up 25.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 139 billion and a net profit margin of 5.0% [2][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Meituan's core local business revenue was RMB 551 billion, up 26.8% year-on-year, with an operating profit of RMB 80 billion and an operating profit margin of 14.5% [10][12]. - For the full year 2023, core local business revenue was RMB 2,069 billion, a 28.7% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit of RMB 387 billion, reflecting a 31.2% year-on-year growth [10][12]. New Initiatives - New business revenue in Q4 2023 was RMB 186 billion, an 11.5% year-on-year increase, with operating losses narrowing to RMB 48 billion [21][31]. - For the full year 2023, new business revenue reached RMB 698 billion, up 18.0% year-on-year, with operating losses reduced to RMB 202 billion [21][31]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan's local commerce business is expected to maintain its leadership position, supported by its ecosystem and competitive pricing strategies. The report notes that if Douyin does not significantly enter the food delivery market, Meituan's food delivery business could retain a market share of 70% [25][26]. - The management plans to focus on improving core competencies and user experience rather than merely expanding market share, aiming to significantly reduce operational losses in the new business segment [15][31]. Cost Management - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 55.3% year-on-year to RMB 167 billion in Q4 2023, reflecting a strategic shift to capture market share and enhance user engagement [17][33]. - Research and development expenses remained stable at RMB 54 billion, while general and administrative expenses showed a slight decrease, indicating a focus on operational efficiency [17][24].

6 李宁（2331） 更新报告 买入 2024年03月26日 2023年全年业绩符合预期；库存周转和 零售折扣在改善 王柏俊  2023 年全年业绩概况：公司录得收入 276 亿元人民币（下同），同比 增 长 7% 。 自 营 零 售 / 批 发 / 电 商 / 海 外 业 务 分 别 增 长 852-25321915 29.6%/0.6%/0.9%/16.6%。品类来看：跑步增长最好+40% (三大核心IP patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 累计销量破 900 万双), 健身增长 25%, 篮球及运动生活都是持平。毛 主要数据 利率维持稳定在48.4%；线下直营店铺的折扣是有所改善，但电商渠道 毛利率随线上竞争环境的加剧被拉低。经营开支比率增加 4.9pct 到 行业 服装纺织 37.5%(主要受租金，直接销售人员工资奖金，广告宣传及赞助和研发 股价 20.20港元 开支增加，在高级市场布局和部分亏损店铺计提资产减值的影响)。经 营利润和股东应占净利润分别减少 27.2%和 21.6%%到 35.6 及 31.9 亿 目标价 25.28港元 元。经营利润率和股东应占净利润 ...

康方生物-B（9926） 更新报告 买入 20 24 年3月25日 研发管线高效推进，逐渐进入商业化收获期 但玉翠  23 年不考虑 BD 公司净亏损收窄 45%至 7.9 亿元：2023 年公司产品销售总收入 852-25321956 16.3 亿元，其中卡度尼利（PD-1/CTLA-4）销售收入 13.6 亿元，同比增加 149%； tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 派安普利单抗（PD-1）销售收入同比下降51%至2.7亿元。由于23年1月公司以总 价50亿美元授权summit公司AK112(PD-1/VEGF)海外发达国家的独家权益，目前5 高小迪 亿美元首付款已经到账，23 年计入 29.2 亿元产品及许可费销售额。扣除派安普利 分销成本后，公司23年录得收入同比增长440%至45.3亿元。公司23年毛利43.9 852 2532 1960 亿元，其中产品毛利 15.0 亿元，产品毛利率高达 91.8%。23 年公司研发开支下降 xiaodi.gao@firstshanghai.com.hk 5%至12.6亿元，销售费用增长61%至8.9亿元，产品销售费用率从去年的75% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Mobile [3] Core Views - China Mobile's revenue has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, achieving a record high in profit, with a revenue of 1,009.3 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [3] - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 75% within the next three years, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 71% for 2023 [3] - The report highlights the continuous optimization of revenue structure and strong growth in various segments, including personal market revenue and enterprise market revenue [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 937,259 million yuan, with a projected increase to 1,068,640 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.9% [7] - Net profit for 2022 was 125,459 million yuan, expected to rise to 141,007 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.0% [7] - The report forecasts an increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 6.35 yuan in 2022 to 7.14 yuan in 2024 [7] - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 is projected at 341.5 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 39.5% [3][11] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditure for 2023 is reported at 180.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [3] - Free cash flow is expected to improve, with a focus on returning value to shareholders through increased dividends [3] Market Position and Growth - China Mobile has a strong market presence with 990 million mobile users, including 180 million 5G subscribers [3] - The company is expanding its cloud services and digital content offerings, with significant growth in enterprise market revenue [3][11] Valuation - The report sets a target price of 80 Hong Kong dollars for China Mobile, maintaining a buy rating based on the company's strong governance and growth potential [3]