| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|-------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 买入 | | | | | | 2024 年 5 | 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **$211.80**, representing a **41% upside** from the current price of **$149.72** [2][3] Core Views - The domestic business is in a positive cycle, with strong growth in online retail and e-commerce sales in Q1, driven by low-price positioning and efficient operations [1] - The overseas business, particularly Temu, continues to grow, with global sales increasing sequentially and significant progress in reducing losses [9] - The company's advertising efficiency gives it an advantage over competitors, and the competitive landscape in the grocery business is easing, driving both average order value and profitability [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to reach **4,582/6,221/7,681 billion yuan**, with operating profits of **1,352/1,856/2,334 billion yuan** [2] - Non-GAAP EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at **96.2/131.8/165.3 yuan per ADS** [2] - Q1 2024 revenue reached **868.12 billion yuan**, a **131% YoY increase**, with online marketing services contributing **424.56 billion yuan** (+56% YoY) and transaction services contributing **443.56 billion yuan** (+327% YoY) [36] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was **259.75 billion yuan**, a **275% YoY increase**, with an operating margin of **29.9%** and an adjusted operating margin of **32.9%** [36] - Net profit for Q1 2024 was **279.98 billion yuan**, a **246% YoY increase**, with a net margin of **32.3%** [36] Operational Highlights - The company's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments stood at **2,421 billion yuan** at the end of Q1 2024, with **555.92 billion yuan** in cash and equivalents [36] - Operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was **210.67 billion yuan** [36] - Marketing expenses in Q1 2024 were **234.11 billion yuan**, accounting for **27.0%** of revenue, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive quarter [36] - R&D expenses in Q1 2024 were **29.10 billion yuan**, a **16% YoY increase**, accounting for **3.4%** of revenue [36] Industry and Competitive Position - The domestic e-commerce industry remains challenging due to intense competition and market saturation, but the company maintains a leading position in its core business [1] - The overseas business, particularly Temu, is showing strong growth, with efforts to optimize logistics and reduce costs, including increasing the proportion of sea freight [9] Valuation and Forecasts - The company's enterprise value is estimated at **3,034.806 billion yuan**, with a market capitalization of **3,152.170 billion yuan** [29] - The target price of **$211.80** is based on a **20% discount rate** and reflects strong growth prospects in both domestic and international markets [29]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for BYD (1211) with a target price of 276 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33.6% from the current price of 206.6 HKD [2][4][6]. Core Insights - BYD's Q1 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue reaching 124.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% [2][4]. - The gross profit margin slightly increased to 21.9%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point year-on-year growth, despite the impact of a new price war in the automotive industry [2][4]. - The company launched several lower-priced "Honor Edition" models to rapidly expand market share, which negatively affected profitability but helped maintain overall vehicle gross margins [2][4]. - BYD's total vehicle sales reached 30.2 million units in Q1, a 46% year-on-year increase, with plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles also showing significant growth [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 723.8 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 34.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.4% [6]. - The report highlights a decrease in average vehicle price, which is expected to stabilize as higher-priced models are introduced, leading to improved per-vehicle profit margins in subsequent quarters [2][4]. - The company anticipates achieving historical high sales of 3.6 million units for the year, driven by the launch of new models and increased international sales [2][4]. Market Position and Strategy - BYD's strategy includes enhancing its high-end brand presence and increasing the proportion of international sales, which is expected to contribute positively to net profit margins [2][4]. - The introduction of the DM5.0 platform is expected to optimize vehicle efficiency, with a fuel consumption reduction to 2.9L per 100 km and a maximum driving range of 2100 km [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming model launches in maintaining competitive advantage and driving future growth [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13, representing a potential upside of 32.9% from the current price of HKD 9.78 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and continues to benefit from a marginal recovery in the real estate sector. Revenue and profit are stable, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 4.1% to HKD 26.8 billion in 2023. The gross margin slightly decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 32.1% due to high costs in the first half of the year, but improved in the second half [2][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive earnings trend, with projected net profits of HKD 6.6 billion, HKD 7.3 billion, and HKD 7.8 billion for 2024-2026. The company has a stable dividend payout ratio of 49% and a low net debt-to-equity ratio of 13.3% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company's revenue from float glass, automotive glass, and architectural glass was HKD 17.5 billion, HKD 6 billion, and HKD 3.3 billion, respectively. The gross margins for these segments were 32.1%, 34.8%, and 34.8% [2][5]. - The company reported a net profit of HKD 5.4 billion for 2023, with a significant increase of 50% in the second half of the year [2][6]. - The company’s cash position is strong, with HKD 3.4 billion in cash on hand, supporting its high dividend capability [2][5]. Market Outlook - The supply-demand situation in the industry is expected to improve marginally, with a forecasted balance in the float glass market as new capacity additions slow down and maintenance activities increase. The report anticipates a stable recovery in glass prices driven by policy stimuli in the real estate sector [2][6]. - The report projects that the average price of float glass will see a slight increase in the first quarter of 2024, with expectations of stabilization and recovery in the second half of the year [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 8.69, based on a projected PE of 13.5x for 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of HKD 18.79 billion for FY2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The main revenue was HKD 18.41 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 39.4%, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 2.30 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2% [2]. - The company increased its store count in China by 765 to a total of 7,236 stores [2]. - The report highlights strong growth in the sofa segment, with sales volume increasing by 26.6% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million HKD) for the fiscal years is projected as follows: 2023: 17,789; 2024: 18,799; 2025: 20,396; 2026: 22,147; 2027: 23,967, with respective growth rates of -18.4%, 5.7%, 8.5%, 8.6%, and 8.2% [1]. - Net profit (in million HKD) is projected as follows: 2023: 1,915; 2024: 2,302; 2025: 2,524; 2026: 2,838; 2027: 3,124, with growth rates of -14.8%, 20.2%, 9.6%, 12.4%, and 10.1% [1]. - Earnings per share (in HKD) are projected to increase from 0.49 in 2023 to 0.80 in 2027 [1]. - The company’s dividend per share is expected to rise from HKD 0.25 in 2023 to HKD 0.40 in 2027, with a dividend yield increasing from 3.7% to 5.9% [1]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates stable growth in the Chinese market for FY2025, driven by consumer demand for quality living and an expected increase of 700-800 stores [2]. - The overseas market is projected to maintain double-digit growth, benefiting from the end of inventory destocking cycles and new customer acquisition [2]. - The report expects raw material and logistics costs to remain stable, allowing for a relatively stable gross margin [2].

露露乐蒙（LULU.O） 更新报告 买入 2024年5月28日 美国市场消费者支出疲软，中国市场持续高速增长 金煊  业绩简况：FY2023 第四季度，营收同比增长 15.6%至 32.1 亿美 元，净利润为 6.7 亿美元，同比增长 458.8%，营业利润率为 + 852-25321539 28.5%，较上财年增长 17.2pct，毛利率增长 4.3pct 至 59.4%。 FY2023 全年营收同比增长 18.6%至 96.2 亿美元，净利润为 15.5 Lexy.jin@firstshanghai.com.hk 亿美元，同比增长 81.4%，营业利润率为 22.2%，较上财年增长 5.8pct，毛利率增长 2.9pct 至 58.3%，毛利率的增长主要是由于 王柏俊 空运成本和关税的降低，摊薄 EPS 为 12.2 美元，同比增长 82.6%。 + 852-25321915  北美市场高端运动休闲品需求减弱，国际市场保持高增长：分地 区看，北美市场营收同比增长 11.9%至 76.3 亿美元，中国内地市 Patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com. hk 场营收同比增长 67.2% ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent release of ChatGPT 4o and Google's IO conference indicates a vibrant market, but caution is advised due to potential bubbles similar to the historical railroad industry in the U.S. [3] - There are reports of price reductions and inventory adjustments in the Chinese market, reflecting a necessary adaptation to changing conditions [4]. Group 2: Economic Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly exceeded expectations, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, slightly below the expected 0.4% [5]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth was 3.6%, aligning with expectations, and the recent inflation data has prompted a positive market reaction, leading to significant declines in interest rates and a rise in stock prices [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Global stock markets performed well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 40,000 points for the first time, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching new highs [5]. - Notable forecasts suggest that by 2030, the Dow Jones could reach 60,000 points and the S&P 500 could hit 8,000 points, indicating a potential 50% increase and approximately 7% annual compound growth rate [5]. - A shift in sentiment is observed as a prominent bear strategist has turned bullish, predicting a 2% increase in the S&P 500 over the next year [5]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Apple’s COO visited TSMC, speculated to secure the first batch of 2nm production capacity, potentially contributing NT$600 billion (approximately US$20 billion) in revenue [16]. - TSMC's cautious approach to capital expenditure is highlighted by its reluctance to invest in expensive new lithography machines from ASML, contrasting with Intel's aggressive spending [16]. - Microsoft is expected to launch several AI devices and software, likely utilizing Qualcomm's ARM architecture, which may benefit chip suppliers like Qualcomm, ARM, and NVIDIA [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $220.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.24% from the current stock price of $190.90 [2][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the iPhone 15 sales have been disappointing, with a revenue decline of 10.5% year-over-year, attributed to both a high base effect from the previous year and increased competition in the smartphone market [13][52]. - The integration of AI technology is seen as a crucial growth driver for the company, especially with upcoming product announcements expected at the 2024 WWDC [13][44]. - The company is experiencing a structural shift in its revenue, with service revenue growing by 14.2% year-over-year, while product revenue has declined [15][48]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, the company reported a net profit of $96.995 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.2, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [11][12]. - The total revenue for the quarter was $908 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year, but above Bloomberg consensus estimates [15][18]. - The gross margin for the quarter was reported at 46.6%, an increase of 230 basis points year-over-year, driven by growth in service revenue [15][18]. Shareholder Returns - The company has authorized an additional $110 billion stock buyback plan and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share [15][19]. - Over $270 billion has been returned to shareholders, including $235 billion in stock buybacks and $37 billion in dividends [15][19]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The report anticipates a low single-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the next quarter, with expectations for iPad revenue to see double-digit growth [33][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 4.3% and an EPS CAGR of 9.1% over the next three years, supported by a growing base of paid subscription users and a recovering consumer electronics market [19][64].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) [7] Core Views - Pinduoduo is expected to report strong Q1 2024 results with total revenue of RMB 76 4 billion, up 103% YoY [7] - Online marketing revenue is projected at RMB 37 5 billion, up 38% YoY, while transaction service revenue is expected to reach RMB 39 0 billion, up 275% YoY [7] - Operating expenses are forecasted at RMB 30 5 billion, up 56% YoY, with a cost ratio of 40% [7] - Operating profit is anticipated to be RMB 12 8 billion, up 85% YoY, with a profit margin of 16 7% [7] - Non GAAP operating profit is estimated at RMB 14 9 billion, up 76% YoY, with a profit margin of 19 5% [7] - Diluted EPS is projected at RMB 2 25, with ADS earnings of RMB 8 75 [7] Business Segments - Pinduoduo s main platform is expected to maintain a leading growth rate compared to peers, partly due to a low base in Q1 2023 [7] - Duoduo Maicai achieved profitability in Q1, driven by both average order value and profit margins [7] - Temu s global GMV continued to grow sequentially in Q1, with semi hosted services launched in mid March showing progress [7] - Overseas business costs are primarily driven by logistics and marketing expenses, with fulfillment costs increasing sequentially in Q1 [7] - Marketing expenses are expected to be controlled, as the company paused US market spending after the Super Bowl in February [7]

4 好未来（TAL） 更新报告 买入 2024年5月22日 FY24Q4 业绩超预期，新业务保持高速增长。 但玉翠  24 财年 4 季度业绩概览：公司 24 财年 4 季度（23 年 12 月-24 年 2 +852-25321539 月）收入为 4.3 亿美元，同比增长 59.7%（美元计，下同），GAAP Tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 归母净利润为 0.28 亿美元，去年同期为-0.39 亿美元；Non-GAAP 归 母净利润 0.48 亿美元，去年同期为-0.13 亿美元，同比扭亏。季度 主要数据 末公司现金+短期投资为 34.7 亿美元，无银行负债。此外，公司递 延收入为4.3亿，同比增长80%。 行业 教育  线下网点持续扩张，新业务高速增长：我们估算 24 财年 Q4 公司业 股价 12.6美元 务结构:（1）教育培训业务占比约 2/3，其中素质教育培训业务占比 目标价 16.0美元 超 40%，同比增长超 50%，高中教培业务占比约 20%，实现稳定增 长。海外教培及其他业务总体占比较小。预估其线下教学点增加至 （+29.7%） 300-350 间。（2）内 ...