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携程:国内业务彰显韧性,出境及海外延续高增

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-04 08:48
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $61.52, indicating a potential upside of 30.0% from the current stock price of $47.33 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in its domestic business while continuing to experience high growth in outbound and overseas markets. In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue and adjusted net profit of RMB 127.9 billion and RMB 49.9 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 45.2% [1]. - The company’s domestic travel segment showed steady performance, with significant growth in accommodation bookings and travel management services. The international OTA platform also saw a revenue increase of approximately 70% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [1][2]. - The company’s profitability improved significantly, with an adjusted net profit margin of 39.0%, up 8.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost optimization and increased income from joint ventures [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported revenues of RMB 247.1 billion and adjusted net profits of RMB 90.4 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.7% and 64.4%, respectively [1]. - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue and adjusted net profit were RMB 127.9 billion and RMB 49.9 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 45.2% [1]. Business Segments - In H1 2024, revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation packages, business travel management, and other services were RMB 96.3 billion, RMB 98.7 billion, RMB 19.1 billion, RMB 11.4 billion, and RMB 21.5 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 10.0%, 72.2%, 11.2%, and 34.5% [1]. - The company’s international OTA platform continued to expand rapidly, with Q2 2024 revenue growth of approximately 70% year-on-year [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q2 2024 was 81.8%, with R&D, sales, and management expense ratios of 23.4%, 22.2%, and 8.4%, respectively [1]. - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 39.0%, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [1].
协鑫科技:颗粒硅成本及品质优势有望进一步体现
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-04 08:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1.54, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of the year decreased by 57.7% year-on-year to RMB 8.86 billion, with a gross loss of RMB 550 million, primarily due to a 68% drop in silicon material prices and an inventory impairment of RMB 820 million [2]. - The company sold 126,000 tons of granular silicon in the first half, a 25% increase year-on-year, with silicon material revenue of RMB 4.86 billion and an average price of RMB 40.3 per kilogram [2]. - The company is expected to further reduce costs, with cash costs for granular silicon projected to fall below RMB 30 per kilogram after the completion of upgrades at its four major bases [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was RMB 35.93 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 17.00 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 31.15 billion in 2026 [5][6]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to be negative RMB 2.25 billion in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 2.71 billion in 2026 [5][6]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve from -18% in 2024 to 10% in 2026 [6]. Production and Quality Improvement - The company has achieved significant improvements in the quality of granular silicon, with 95% of products meeting the stringent impurity standards [2]. - The company’s major clients accounted for 62.2% of total shipments in the first half, indicating strong demand and potential for increased market share [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the silicon material prices will stabilize, and the company is expected to recover cash profitability ahead of the industry [2]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's ability to enhance production capacity and maintain a competitive edge in the low-carbon segment [2].
华润万象生活:持续高质量发展,派息率逐年提升

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-04 07:09
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company demonstrates continuous high-quality development with an increasing dividend payout ratio year by year [1]. - The company is positioned among the top tier in the property management industry, leveraging strong operational capabilities and resilience in performance [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue growth of 17.1%, with core net profit increasing by 24.2% to 1.77 billion RMB [1]. - The overall gross profit margin improved to 25.1%, with a dividend per share of 0.279 RMB, reflecting a payout ratio of 38.0% [1]. - The total contracted area managed by the company reached approximately 4.1 billion square meters, with a third-party management ratio increasing from 59.2% to 60.7% [1]. Business Segment Performance - The commercial management segment's revenue grew by 23.4% to 2.85 billion RMB, with a gross margin increase of 2.4 percentage points to 60.9% [1]. - The rental income from shopping centers increased by 19.7% to 12.6 billion RMB, with a net operating income (NOI) margin rising to 67.8% [1]. - The number of shopping centers in operation reached 108, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 96.7% [1]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.78 billion RMB, 4.33 billion RMB, and 4.93 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [1]. - The target price for the company's shares is set at 36.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 51.6% from the current price of 23.90 HKD [1].
小米集团-W:规模与利润并重,汽车毛利率超预期

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-04 07:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 22.58, indicating an upside potential of 18.47% from the current price of HKD 19.06 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of RMB 888.9 billion for Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%, exceeding market expectations of RMB 867.5 billion. The overall gross margin was 20.7%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but above the expected 19.6% [1]. - The net profit reached RMB 50.7 billion, up 38.3% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was RMB 61.8 billion, reflecting a 20.1% increase [1]. - Cash reserves stood at RMB 141 billion, a 24.5% increase year-on-year, with a total of 248 million shares repurchased for HKD 3.68 billion as of July 19, 2024 [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The mobile and AIoT segment generated revenue of RMB 825.2 billion, a 22.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.1%, up 0.1 percentage points [1]. - Smartphone revenue was RMB 465.2 billion, growing 27.1% year-on-year, driven by a 28.1% increase in smartphone shipments to 42.2 million units [1]. - IoT business revenue reached a record high of RMB 267.6 billion, up 20.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.7%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points [1]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment reported revenue of RMB 63.7 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 62.4 billion. The average selling price (ASP) was RMB 229,000, with Q2 deliveries reaching 27,307 units [1]. - The gross margin for the automotive business was 15.4%, significantly exceeding market expectations, attributed to strong supply chain negotiation capabilities and high sales volumes [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 3390.9 billion, RMB 3967.0 billion, and RMB 4317.9 billion, respectively. Net profit projections for the same years are RMB 170.3 billion, RMB 216.0 billion, and RMB 271.1 billion [1][2].
理想汽车-W:智能驾驶进展顺利,新纯电车型将于25年上半年发布

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-03 05:09
理想汽车(LI.O/2015.HK) 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|------------------------------|--------------------------|---------|-------------------------------------------|---------------|---------------|---------------------------------------| | | | 买入 | | | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 3 日 | | | 智 ...
中国民航信息网络:受益于民航业需求回暖,业绩恢复增长
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-03 04:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.0, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the last closing price of HKD 9.4 [1]. Core Insights - The company is benefiting from the recovery in civil aviation demand, leading to a growth in performance. In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue reached RMB 4.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.37 billion, up 13.9% year-on-year [1]. - The core business revenue is recovering, with aviation information service technology revenue at RMB 2.27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8%. The total system processing volume increased by 24% compared to the previous year, surpassing the levels seen in 2019 [1]. - The company is positioned as a high-quality supplier in the aviation tourism information technology service industry, expected to benefit from the continuous improvement in aviation demand [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of RMB 1.29 billion, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 9.56 billion, indicating a solid financial position [1]. - The total operating costs for the first half of 2024 were RMB 2.54 billion, an increase of 16.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a 31.7% rise in labor costs and a 14.1% increase in depreciation and amortization [1]. - The company anticipates that the domestic passenger transport volume will exceed that of the same period in 2019, with international passenger volume recovering to 80% of 2019 levels [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The settlement and clearing service revenue saw a significant increase of 50% to RMB 280 million, with approximately 610 million transactions processed, a 36% year-on-year growth [1]. - System integration service revenue improved significantly to RMB 680 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111.9%, attributed to the progress in project construction and acceptance [1]. - Data network revenue was RMB 220 million, up 7.3% year-on-year, driven by an increase in distribution information technology service volume [1].
英伟达:Blackwell出货推迟至10月,软件ARR快速增长
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-03 01:16
Investment Rating - Target price set at $145 with a "Buy" rating [24][48] Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30 billion, a year-over-year increase of 122.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $28.8 billion [30] - GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.67, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $0.61 [30] - The company generated free cash flow of $13.5 billion in the quarter, significantly up from $6 billion in the same period last year [9] Revenue and Profitability - Operating profit for the quarter was $18.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 174.1%, with an operating margin of 62.1% [8] - Non-GAAP operating profit was $19.9 billion, up 156.4% year-over-year [8] - The company expects Q2 FY2025 revenue to grow by 79% year-over-year, with a midpoint guidance of $32.5 billion [10] Business Segments - Data center revenue reached $26.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 154%, driven by a 162% increase in computing GPU revenue [12] - Gaming revenue for Q2 FY2025 was $2.9 billion, a 16% increase, supported by sales of the RTX 40 series [17] - Professional visualization revenue was $450 million, up 20% year-over-year, primarily due to AI and graphics use case demand [42] Strategic Developments - The company launched the new Blackwell platform, emphasizing enhanced AI computing capabilities [16] - The software business is expected to see significant growth, with annualized revenue nearing $2 billion, mainly from NVIDIA AI Enterprise [16] - The automotive segment's revenue increased to $350 million, a 37% year-over-year growth, with a total order value rising from $11 billion to $14 billion [20][43]
安踏体育:2024年上半年归母净利润同比增长62.6%,宣布100亿元回购计划

First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-03 01:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 102.0 HKD, representing a potential upside of 32.8% from the current price of 76.8 HKD [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 62.6%, reaching 7.72 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, alongside a robust revenue growth of 13.8% to 33.74 billion RMB [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 64.1%, driven by the performance of the Anta main brand and Fila [1]. - The company announced a share repurchase plan of 10 billion RMB over the next 18 months to enhance market confidence [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company achieved a revenue of 33.74 billion RMB in H1 2024, up 13.8% year-on-year [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 62.6% to 7.72 billion RMB, with core net profit rising 17.0% to 6.16 billion RMB [1]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin rose to 64.1%, reflecting a 0.8 percentage point increase [1]. - **Operating Profit**: Operating profit grew by 13.6% to 8.66 billion RMB, maintaining an operating margin of 25.7% [1]. - **Free Cash Flow**: The company generated free cash flow of 7.62 billion RMB [1]. - **Net Cash Position**: The net cash position increased significantly to 32.39 billion RMB [1]. Brand Performance - **Anta Main Brand**: Revenue for the Anta main brand grew by 13.5% to 16.1 billion RMB, benefiting from strong e-commerce growth and product effectiveness [1]. - **FILA Brand**: Revenue for the FILA brand increased by 6.8% to 13.01 billion RMB, with growth driven primarily by bulk sales [1]. - **Other Brands**: Other brands saw a revenue increase of 41.8% to 4.6 billion RMB, with DESCENTE and KOLON leading the growth [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects double-digit growth for the Anta brand in 2024, while the FILA brand's growth forecast has been adjusted to high single digits [1]. - The operating profit margins for the Anta and FILA brands are projected to be around 20% and 25%, respectively [1].
比亚迪电子:消费电子、汽车电子稳定向好,服务器等新业务前景可观
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-03 01:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics, with a target price of HKD 44, indicating a potential upside of 53.3% from the current price of HKD 28.7 [2]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics has shown stable growth in consumer electronics and automotive electronics, with promising prospects in new businesses such as servers [2]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 1.518 billion for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 78.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [2]. - The acquisition of Jabil's Chengdu and Wuxi factories has positively impacted the consumer electronics segment, which generated RMB 63.3 billion in revenue, up 54.22% year-on-year [2]. - The automotive business continues to expand, with revenue of RMB 7.757 billion, reflecting a growth of 26.48% [2]. - The report anticipates revenue growth of 31%, 9.7%, and 10.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected to grow by 13%, 31.7%, and 18% during the same period [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, was RMB 107.19 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 206.85 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.4% [4]. - Net profit for 2022 was RMB 1.86 billion, expected to rise to RMB 7.10 billion by 2026, indicating a significant growth trajectory [4]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross margin to 6.85% due to changes in product mix and increased financial costs from acquisitions [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.82 in 2022 to RMB 3.15 by 2026 [4]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to stabilize around 30% from 2024 onwards, with dividends per share increasing from RMB 0.165 in 2022 to RMB 0.945 by 2026 [4].
海天国际:订单景气度快速恢复,份额有望持续提升
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-08-29 07:52
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 30 for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a good order growth in the second half of the year, with annual performance projected to approach the peak levels seen in 2021. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains, particularly as domestic manufacturing capacity shifts overseas [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 8.02 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. The gross margin slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points to 32.3%. Operating profit reached RMB 1.75 billion, up 28.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.52 billion, a 23.5% increase. Basic earnings per share stood at RMB 0.95, with a solid financial position reflected in net cash of RMB 10.65 billion [1]. Sales and Market Trends - Sales trends across all models are improving, with significant growth in demand from downstream consumer goods, certain home appliances, and the 3C industry. The main Mars series saw sales of 24,115 units and revenue of RMB 5.17 billion, marking year-on-year increases of 45.5% and 34%, respectively. The Jupiter series achieved sales of 840 units and revenue of RMB 1.46 billion, with year-on-year growth of 14.9% and 6.5%. The Chang Fei Ya series also rebounded with sales of 1,955 units and revenue of RMB 1.02 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 34.5% and 25.7% [1]. Domestic and International Market Outlook - Domestic revenue grew by 33.7% to RMB 5.18 billion, driven by a recovery in demand from the consumer goods sector. International revenue increased by 13.2% to RMB 2.84 billion, with strong demand from emerging markets such as Vietnam, Brazil, and Mexico. The company anticipates improved overseas revenue recognition in the second half of the year as shipping schedules stabilize [1]. Future Revenue and Profit Projections - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to RMB 15.9 billion, RMB 18.99 billion, and RMB 22.3 billion, respectively. Net profit projections for the same years are RMB 3 billion, RMB 3.53 billion, and RMB 4.1 billion, respectively. The report maintains a target price of HKD 30, corresponding to forecasted price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for 2024 to 2026 [2].