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啤酒高端化稳步向前,白酒重塑成效显著
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-08 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 41.3, representing a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HKD 33.9 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance in FY23 with a revenue of RMB 38.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The EBIT recorded was RMB 6.96 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 33% due to a low base effect [1][3]. - The beer business is focused on premiumization, with a revenue of RMB 36.87 billion in FY23, up 5% year-on-year. The average selling price increased by 4% to RMB 3,306 per thousand liters, driven by product mix upgrades [1][3]. - The white liquor business has successfully undergone a transformation, achieving a revenue of RMB 2.07 billion in FY23, with an EBIT of RMB 130 million. The company has effectively reduced inventory levels and improved pricing strategies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue reached RMB 36.87 billion, with a stable volume of 11.15 million kiloliters sold. The sales of premium and above products grew by 18.9%, accounting for 22.4% of total sales [1][2]. - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 40.2%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with EBIT and net profit contributions of RMB 7.03 billion and RMB 5.25 billion, respectively [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated RMB 2.07 billion in revenue, with an EBIT of RMB 130 million. After adjusting for intangible asset amortization from the acquisition of Guizhou Jinsha, the EBIT would be RMB 797 million, reflecting a robust EBIT margin of 38.6% [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory by approximately RMB 800 million, achieving a significant improvement in pricing for key products [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of RMB 60.7 billion, RMB 70.2 billion, and RMB 80.3 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a target price based on a 20x PE ratio for FY24 earnings [3][4].
业绩符合预期,铜金产量大幅提升,铜金价格持续走高,未来产量增长空间巨大
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-08 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.67 HKD, representing a potential upside of 23.2% from the current price of 16.78 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with significant increases in copper and gold production, and rising prices for these metals, indicating substantial future growth potential [1]. - The company achieved total revenue of 293.4 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.12 billion RMB, up 5.38% year-on-year, marking historical highs for both metrics [1]. - The report highlights the expected production plans for 2024, projecting copper production at 1.11 million tons and gold production at 73.5 tons, among other minerals, indicating a sustained growth trajectory [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 293.4 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 9% compared to 2022 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 21.12 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the previous year [5]. - The average selling price for copper concentrate was 49,406 RMB per ton, up 3.95% year-on-year, while the average selling price for gold bars was 433 RMB per gram, an increase of 12.28% [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 15.81%, slightly improved from the previous year, while the mineral product gross margin was 49.09%, down approximately 5 percentage points [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued price increases for copper and gold due to tightening supply and recovering demand, which will support the company's profitability [1]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 328.41 billion RMB, with net profit expected to reach 27.75 billion RMB, indicating a growth rate of 31.4% [5][6].
23年股东权益同比增长6.2%,毛利率仍在下行
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-07 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 30.9, indicating a potential upside of 51.8% from the current price of HKD 20.35 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 596.57 billion for 2023, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth. The net profit increased by 4.6% to RMB 15.01 billion, with shareholder equity rising by 6.2% to RMB 9.05 billion [2][3]. - The overall gross margin has declined by 0.5 percentage points to 8.1%, while the company has effectively controlled expenses, leading to a decrease in distribution and administrative expense ratios [2][3]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated RMB 441.05 billion in revenue, up 8.5%, while the medical device segment grew by 7.8% to RMB 130.21 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from RMB 639.73 billion in 2024E to RMB 724.44 billion in 2026E, with annual growth rates ranging from 6.3% to 8.0% [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 9.50 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.79 billion in 2026E, with a consistent growth trajectory [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 3.05 in 2024E to RMB 3.46 in 2026E, reflecting a positive outlook for shareholder returns [5]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment remains the largest contributor, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, while the medical device and retail segments contribute 21.1% and 5.8%, respectively [2][3]. - The medical device segment is expected to gain traction with new partnerships and product launches, including a joint venture with GE Healthcare [3]. - The retail pharmacy segment has shown improvement, with a 0.73 percentage point increase in operating profit margin to 3.21% and an increase in the number of retail outlets [3].
基本面企稳向好,有望继续受益于民航业复苏
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-02 16:00
中国民航信息网络(696) 更新报告 买入 2024年4月3日 基本面企稳向好,有望继续 受益于民航业复苏 罗凡环 公司业绩符合预期,派息分红有待提高:23 年公司收入 69.8 亿元人民币 852-25321962 (YoY+34%),归属于母公司股东净利润 13.99 亿元(YoY+123%),符合公司 之前的盈利预告(预计 23 年录得净利润约为 12.5-14.5 亿元)。公司每股 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 盈利为人民币 0.48 元,董事会建议派发 23 年年度以现金支付的末期股息 李京霖 0.16元,全年派息比率33%,去年同期为25%,23年来自经营活动现金流入 净额为1.37亿元,公司的现金及现金等价物为72.8亿元,财务状况健康, 852-25321957 公司也通过提升派息比率回馈股东。 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 公司 23 年基础业务显著恢复,系统集成业务有所拖累:随着疫情放开, 中国民航业呈现有序恢复的局面。2023 年公司航空信息服务技术收入达 主要数据 38.5 亿元(YoY+149%),全年系统处理 ...
宏观经济评论
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-02 16:00
BKNG 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 瑞银最近也开始上调了标普 500 指数的目标价至 5400 点,年内还有低个位数的上 涨空间。华尔街资深分析师 Yardeni 的评论最近也开始转牛,认为标普 500 指数有 可能在两年内突破 6500 点,还有 30%的涨幅,但是也提醒避免股市过热导致的崩 溃,尤其是围绕 AI 的炒作。总之现在华尔街都开始撕报告了,改变年初对美股的 保守预测,都开始大幅多次上调。 但也有不好的消息,美国商业地产法拍数量有所增加,有可能影响中小银行的股价 从而间接导致市场情绪连带下跌。 季报大超预期,对整个科技股乃至整个指数都有很强有力的支撑作用,现在英伟达 的市值也接近 2 万亿美元。但市场有少数声音还是对英伟达表现出了一些忧虑,主 要是担心四大云客户在 2025 年之后,在下游应用创收没有达到预期的情况下,可 能会缩减支出,这样会影响英伟达的增速。德意志银行和瑞银都表达了对英伟达未 来收入增速放缓的担忧。 用户640989118于2024-02-28日下载,仅供本人内部使用,不可传播与转载 最近有个好消息,要取代 Walgreens 进入道琼斯指数成分股 ...
23年业绩略有下跌,声学有望升规升配,结构件业务增势强劲
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
瑞声科技(2018) 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 23年业绩略有下跌,声学有望升规升配,结构件业务增势强劲 陈晓霞 23 年业绩略有下跌:公司 2023 年全年实现收入 204.2 亿元(人民币,下 852-25321956 同),同比下降 1.0%。毛利率为 16.9%,同比下滑 1.4 个百分点。净利 润 7.4 亿,同比下降 9.9%,基本符合预期,主要是因为全球智能手机恢 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 复不及预期,消费需求疲软。展望 24 年,智能手机市场微复苏,公司 主要数据 IoT、AR/VR 及车载领域均获成果,尤其车载领域取得定点项目和收购 PSS公司,将助力公司全球汽车行业渗透。 行业 TMT 光学业务稳健增长,声学有望升规升配:光学业务实现收入 36.3 亿,同 股价 26.25港元 比增长12.7%,得益于塑胶镜头和光学模组业务产品升级进展顺利以及在 目标价 29.04港元 中高端机型份额的提升,公司全年塑胶镜头和 WLG 镜头出货量同比分别 (+10.6%) 提升 20%和 22%。毛利率为-13%,同比持平。公司去库存进展良好,预计 今年一 ...
轨道交通回暖,新型装备高速增长
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CRRC Times Electric (3898) with a target price of HKD 38.1, indicating a potential upside of 53.6% from the current price [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in rail transit and rapid growth in new equipment, with a net profit growth of 21.5% in 2023, driven by a revenue increase of 20.9% to RMB 21.8 billion [2]. - The rail transit business is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in national railway passenger volume, which rose by 128.8% year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2]. - The emerging equipment business is experiencing high growth rates, particularly in power semiconductor devices and new energy vehicle components, with some segments growing over 69% [2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 21.8 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.19 [2][7]. - The revenue breakdown shows rail transit business revenue at RMB 12.9 billion (up 2%) and emerging equipment business revenue at RMB 8.7 billion (up 69.6%) [2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 projects revenues of RMB 24.5 billion, RMB 27.8 billion, and RMB 30.6 billion, with respective growth rates of 12.4%, 13.6%, and 10.0% [2][7]. Business Segments - The rail transit business is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for locomotive and train replacements, with a total of 22,400 locomotives and 4,427 standard train sets in operation by the end of 2023 [2]. - The emerging equipment segment focuses on two main areas: transportation and energy, with significant investments in research and development, amounting to RMB 2.02 billion in 2023, representing 9.3% of total revenue [2]. - The company has secured new orders for photovoltaic inverters totaling 18.6 GW, ranking among the top three in the industry [2].
完成收购捷普,汽车电子迎高质发展,不断拓宽业务边界
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
比亚迪电子(0285) 更新报告 买入 2024年04月02日 陈晓霞 完成收购捷普,汽车电子迎高质发展,不断拓宽业务边界 852-25321956 2023 年净利润增长 118%:比亚迪电子2023年收入1300亿元, xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 增长 21%;净利润 40.4 亿元,增长 118%;每股盈利 1.79 元人民 币,增长 118%。从收入结构看,消费电子零部件 136 亿,下滑 主要数据 3.7%;组装 837.8 亿,增长 23%;新型智能产品 184 亿,增长 21.3%;新能源汽车业务141亿,增长52%。 行业 TMT 完成捷普收购,提升消费电子竞争力:2023 年全球智能手机出 股价 28.85港元 货量下滑3.2%至11.7亿部。根据TechInsight的预测,2024年智 目标价 45港元 能手机出货量将恢复低单位数的增长。公司以158亿元人民币的代 价收购捷普位于成都、无锡的制造业务,于 2023 年 12 月 29 日完 (+54.6%) 成交割,这将增强公司在核心客户 A 的合作深度,增厚 2024 年的 股票代码 0285 收入 ...
物管+商管双赛道高品质发展,提升股东回报
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
华润万象生活(1209) 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 物管+商管双赛道高质量发 展,提升股东回报 2023年核心净利润同比增长31.2%:2024年公司收入录得147.7亿元,同比 罗凡环 增长22.9%。整体毛利率为31.8%,同比提升1.7个ppt。核心净利润同比增 852-25321962 长 31.2%至 29.2 亿元,核心净利润率提升 1.3 个 ppt 至 19.8%。全年股息每 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 股 0.704 元,同比增长 60.4%,派息率 55.0%。截止 2023 年底,公司总合约 面积约4.4亿方,总在管面积约3.8亿方,在管面积中第三方占比由2022年 主要资料 底的56.3%提升至2023年底的59.2%。 行业 物业管理 商管毛利率大幅提升,领导地位更加稳固:期内商管航道收入为51.7亿元, 股价 24.75港元 同比增长 22.6%。毛利率提升 7.7 个ppt 至 58.4%。零售额同比增长 43.3%至 1812 亿元,同店可比增长 30.9%,零售额增速大幅优于社会消费品零售总额 目标价 43.20港元 增速。 ...
2023年净利润符合预期,产能利用率已恢复到100%
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-01 16:00
Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 98.09, implying a 32.4% upside from the current price of HKD 74.10 [1][3] Core Views - 2023 net profit of RMB 4.56 billion met expectations, with capacity utilization recovering to 100% [1] - Revenue declined 10.1% YoY to RMB 24.97 billion due to weak global consumer demand and customer destocking [1] - Gross margin improved 2.2ppt to 24.3%, driven by higher capacity utilization and overseas factory efficiency [1] - Effective tax rate dropped to 8.8% due to higher overseas profit contribution [1] - Final dividend of HKD 1.08 declared, representing a payout ratio of 60.3% [1] - Double-digit revenue growth expected in 2024 as destocking progresses and capacity utilization remains at 100% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown by product: sportswear -13.6%, casualwear -1.4%, underwear +30.2%, others -41.6% [2] - Revenue breakdown by region: Europe -19.1%, US -20.4%, Japan -6.4%, other regions -7.6%, China +0.7% [2] - Key customer growth: Nike -10.8%, Adidas -24.1%, Uniqlo +2.9%, Puma -28.1% [2] - Domestic brands' share increased to 11%, while Lululemon accounted for 2% of sales [2] - 2H23 revenue declined 5.5% YoY, with Q4 returning to positive growth [3] - 2H23 gross margin improved 3.1ppt QoQ to 25.8% [3] Forecasts - 2024 revenue forecast at RMB 28.15 billion, +12.8% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast at RMB 5.37 billion, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 EPS forecast at RMB 3.57, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 dividend forecast at HKD 2.41, with payout ratio maintained at 60% [4] - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR forecast at 13.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net profit CAGR forecast at 17.8% [4] Industry and Company Positioning - The company operates in the apparel and textile industry [2] - It benefits from vertical integration, balanced domestic and overseas presence, and strong management execution [3] - The company is well-positioned as an industry leader with innovative product capabilities [3]