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精锻科技(300258):新项目新品类持续拓展,布局机器人核心部件
Orient Securities· 2025-04-21 13:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.63 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 0.47, 0.57, and 0.68 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expanding its new projects and product categories, particularly focusing on the core components of robotics [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog and is accelerating its international expansion, with significant investments in new product development and production capacity [10]. - The establishment of a joint venture, Jiangsu Pacific Intelligent Joint Co., Ltd., aims to enhance the industrialization of core robotic components, leveraging partnerships with established technology firms [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,103 million CNY, with a projected decrease to 2,025 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,416 million CNY in 2025, and further growth to 2,862 million CNY in 2026 and 3,336 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 238 million CNY in 2023 to 160 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 240 million CNY in 2025, 293 million CNY in 2026, and 349 million CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 25.5% in 2023, decreasing to 24.4% in 2024, and stabilizing around 24.5%-24.9% in the following years [4][10]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 0.47, 0.57, and 0.68 CNY respectively, reflecting a more conservative outlook compared to previous estimates [2][10]. - The company’s operating profit is expected to recover significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 49.2% compared to 2024 [4][10]. Market Comparison - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 29 times, indicating a favorable valuation for the company relative to its peers [2][11].
东方战略周观察:对等关税冲击越南外向型经济
Orient Securities· 2025-04-21 07:51
宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 东方战略周观察:对等关税冲击越南外向 型经济 研究结论 战略动向复盘:美国对等关税冲击越南外向型经济。2024 年越南向美国出口的商品价值 1195 亿美元,占出口总额 29.5%,出口到美国的 16 类商品出口额达到 10 亿美元或以 上。2025 年 1-2 月,越南对美国的出口额达到 195.6 亿美元,占全国出口总额的 30%, 与去年同期相比增长 16.5%。特朗普对等关税对越南征收 46%关税,高于多数东南亚国 家,越南政府已降低对美关税并向美国企业开放新的行业:主动下调 23 类进口商品关税 (部分税率低于美国对越关税);推动采购 250 架波音客机、部分军用飞机及价值 60 亿 美元 LNG 等总计超 900 亿美元美国商品;为美国玉米、大豆、转基因饲料等 61 类农产 品开放市场。由副总理胡德福率领高级别代表团于 4 月 6 日至 14 日访问华盛顿,商谈关 税问题的回旋空间。 出口导向的越南经济受关税影响较大,由于国内货币宽松节奏较慢,仍存在一定降息空 间提升内需和投资的拉动效应,但需警惕外资流出和货币贬值压力。由于美方宣布豁免 智能手机、芯片等电子产品关税的规则, ...
固定收益市场周观察:再议供给压力及对资金面影响
Orient Securities· 2025-04-21 07:44
固定收益 | 动态跟踪 再议供给压力及对资金面影响 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期;货币政策变化超预期;经济基本面变化超预期;信用风险暴露超预 期;数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分,或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860523080003 | | 利率方向回归下行后,幅度取决于资金: | 2025-04-14 | | --- | --- | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期: ...
江苏银行24年年报点评:核心营收表现强势,个贷不良处置力度加大
Orient Securities· 2025-04-21 06:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core revenue performance is strong, supporting a continued recovery in profit growth. As of the end of 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown year-on-year growth rates of +2.6 percentage points, +0.5 percentage points, and +0.7 percentage points respectively. The increase in net interest income is supported by strong asset deployment and a slowdown in net interest margin contraction [9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, 6.9% in 2026, and 7.9% in 2027, with corresponding BVPS of 14.11, 15.59, and 17.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.70X, 0.63X, and 0.57X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported an operating income of 74,293 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The operating profit was 38,882 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 47.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 28,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,403,362 million yuan in 2023 to 4,940,555 million yuan by 2027, indicating a robust expansion strategy [12] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.89% as of the end of 2024, with a focus on improving asset quality through increased efforts in non-performing loan disposal [9] Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.57 yuan, representing a 20% premium over comparable companies, with a projected PB of 0.89 for 2025 [3][5] - The company’s average P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 5.84 in 2023 to 4.82 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation relative to its earnings growth [12]
江苏银行(600919):核心营收表现强势,个贷不良处置力度加大
Orient Securities· 2025-04-21 05:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core revenue performance is strong, supporting a continued recovery in profit growth. As of the end of 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown year-on-year growth rates of +2.6 percentage points, +0.5 percentage points, and +0.7 percentage points respectively. The increase in net interest income is supported by strong asset deployment and a slowdown in the narrowing of net interest margins [9] - The company is expected to see a net profit growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, 6.9% in 2026, and 7.9% in 2027, with corresponding BVPS of 14.11, 15.59, and 17.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.70X, 0.63X, and 0.57X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Given the strong credit demand in the region and significant dividend yield advantages, a 20% valuation premium is applied compared to peers, leading to a target price of 12.57 yuan per share [3][5] Financial Information Summary - For 2023A, the company reported operating income of 74,293 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The projected operating income for 2024A is 80,815 million yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 28,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. The forecast for 2024A is 31,843 million yuan, indicating a 10.8% increase [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,403,362 million yuan in 2023A to 4,940,555 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [12]
油价上涨,继续关注内需及国产替代新材料机会
Orient Securities· 2025-04-21 01:45
基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 油价上涨,继续关注内需及国产替代新材 料机会 核心观点 原油相关信息: ⚫ 原油及相关库存:2025 年 4 月 11 日美国原油商业库存 4.429 亿桶,周增加 50 桶; 汽油库存 2.340亿桶,周减少 200万桶;馏分油库存 1.092 亿桶,周减少 190万桶; 丙烷库存 0.44367 亿桶,周减少 128.4 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数:2025 年 4 月 11 日美国原油产量为 1346.2 万桶/天,周度增加 0.4 万桶/天,较一年前增加 36.2 万 桶/天。2025 年 4 月 17 日美国钻机数 585 台,周增加 2 台,年减少 34 台;加拿大 钻机数 134 台,周减少 4 台,年增加 7 台。其中美国采油钻机 481 台,周度增加 1 台,年度减少 30 台。 价格变化: 价差变化: 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期;需求不及预期;海外市场供需情况变化;油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 21 日 看好(维持) | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 ...
美好医疗(301363):2024年报点评:呼吸机业务良好,血糖管理快速拓展
Orient Securities· 2025-04-20 15:10
呼吸机业务良好,血糖管理快速拓展 ——美好医疗 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年报,我们下调收入预测,上调毛利率预测,我们预测公司 2024- 2026 年 EPS 分别为 1.09、1.37、1.68 元(原预测 25-26 年 EPS 为 1.23、1.51 元),由于公司家用呼吸机业务增势良好,同时公司产品管线持续丰富,新业务、 新客户不断开发,长期空间广阔。根据可比公司 2025 年平均估值,给予公司 2025 年 31 倍市盈率,对应目标价为 33.79 元,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 大客户依赖风险;下游库存积压风险;新业务拓展不及预期风险;汇率波动风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,338 | 1,594 | 1,937 | 2,355 | 2,878 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.5% | 19.2% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 22.2% | | 营业 ...
策略周报:缺乏稳定一致预期-20250420
Orient Securities· 2025-04-20 14:46
投资策略 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照:BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860515100002 | | | | | 市场或仍将保持高波动:——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | --- | --- | | 0414 | | | 关税风暴,关注国内政策对冲:——策略 | 2025-04-07 | | 周报 0407 | | | 从政策博弈到基本面 ...
东方证券ESG双周报第六十八期:加快建设农业强国,推进农业全面绿色转型-20250420
Orient Securities· 2025-04-20 14:15
ESG 研究 | 定期报告 加快建设农业强国,推进农业全面绿色转 型 ——东方证券 ESG 双周报第六十八期 ESG 指环境(Environment),社会(Social),治理(Governance)的英文首字母缩 写,是投资和评估企业的新理念新方法。在分析和投资的决策过程中,不仅要重视企业 的财务信息,也要重视 ESG 非财务信息。考虑 ESG 因素的投资也叫负责任投资,具有 受托人责任,旨在推动公司把社会环境等要求融入到企业业务中去,降低风险,实现价 值创造,产生长期回报。本系列主要从这一角度出发,针对国内外 ESG 相关的政策和热 点进行跟踪和梳理,为长期投资的方向和方法论提供参考。 研究结论 风险提示 卷首语 | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债 | 2025-04-13 | | --- | --- | | 券:——ESG 企业动态双周报第二十九期 | | | 美国证监会终止气候披露规则辩护,欧盟 | 2025-04-06 | | ESG披露推迟:——东方证券ESG双周报 | | | 第六十七期 | | | 顺丰启动航空碳中和计划,亚马逊推出碳 | 2025-03-29 | | 信用投资:——ES ...
有色钢铁行业周观点(2025年第16周):持续关注钢铁板块的投资机会-20250420
Orient Securities· 2025-04-20 14:15
持续关注钢铁板块的投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 16 周) 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓;美国通胀增速放缓;原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 看好(维持) 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照:BTB487 | 金价再创新高,积极关注黄金板块投资机 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 会:——有色钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 | | | 13 周) | | | 央行购金空间广阔,投资需求推动金价中 | 2025-03-27 | | 期上涨:——黄金系列报告之一 | | | 持续关注黄金与钢铁板块投资机会:—— | 2025-03-24 | | 有色钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 12 周) | | 铁矿石:供给格局或迎巨变,钢铁盈利有 望回流:——"中国定价"系列报告之一 2025-03-12 有关分析师的申 ...