行业景气度承压，期待拐点出现 ——中国巨石动态跟踪报告 核心观点 ⚫ 事件： 2024 年三季度 GDP 同比增速录得 4.6%，9 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.4%，8 月为 4.5%，23 年全年为 4.6%。作为与国民经济与工业息息相关的玻 纤行业，需求或将逐步迎来改善。 ⚫ 公司产销继续增长，价格下滑影响业绩。公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 77 亿 元，同减 1.2%；实现归母净利润 9.6 亿元，同减 53.4%；扣非归母净利润 6.3 亿 元，同减 50.5%。随着公司粗纱产能和电子纱产能的陆续投产，公司合计销售粗纱 及制品达到 152 万吨，同比增长 22.6%，销售电子布 4.6 亿米，同比增长 12.5%。 但由于玻纤价格下滑，公司业务收入并未明显增长，同时毛利率下降至 21.5%，同 降 7.9pct，从而导致利润出现下滑。 ⚫ 行业周期底部运行，期待改善拐点出现。随着近些年行业内产能的快速增加，导致 供给较为宽松，从而使得玻纤价格高位回落。不过在行业底部竞争也会加剧，中国 巨石受益于产品结构持续优化，预计产品整体价格跌幅将小于业内其他公司。中小 企业盈利压力更大，从而 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 86.57 yuan [1] Core Views - The company is a leading player in nucleic acid molecular diagnostics, with a strong focus on women's health and infectious disease testing [2] - The company has a robust R&D capability, with over 600 products and a significant presence in the molecular diagnostics market [2] - The company has successfully diversified its product portfolio, including POCT and overseas market expansion, which has helped it achieve a turnaround in profitability [2] - The company's core technology platforms, including multiplex fluorescent quantitative PCR, NGS, and POCT, provide a competitive edge in the IVD market [2] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 1.8 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, but its regular business grew by 2.0% after excluding the impact of COVID-19-related business [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 292.4 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 143%, marking a turnaround from losses [2] - The gross margin in H1 2024 reached 68.1%, and the net profit margin improved to 16.5% due to better cost control [2] Industry Outlook - The domestic IVD market is expected to grow from 716 billion yuan in 2019 to 1,332 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 13.2% [2] - The molecular diagnostics market is projected to reach 25.8 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the rapid development of PCR and NGS technologies [2] - The company is well-positioned in the molecular diagnostics segment, with a strong presence in PCR-based testing and a leading market share in vaginal microecology evaluation systems [2] Product Portfolio - The company's product portfolio includes nucleic acid molecular diagnostic reagents, nucleic acid purification reagents, and immunodiagnostic reagents, with diagnostic reagents accounting for 90.2% of revenue in H1 2024 [2] - The company has developed a comprehensive range of products for infectious disease testing, including respiratory, intestinal, and bloodborne pathogens [12] - In the women's health segment, the company offers HPV testing, vaginal microecology evaluation, and reproductive health products, with its HPV testing business growing rapidly since 2016 [54] Overseas Expansion - The company has established branches in Hong Kong, the UK, and the US, and its overseas revenue in H1 2024 reached 52.8 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [19] - The company has successfully launched products for emerging infectious diseases such as monkeypox and dengue fever, with several products receiving international certifications [64] Technological Advancements - The company has developed a multiplex fluorescent quantitative PCR platform, which allows for high-throughput and cost-effective detection of multiple targets [33] - The company's SIC-1000 fully automated dry immunoassay analyzer, launched in H1 2024, offers rapid and accurate detection of respiratory pathogens, with results available in 16 minutes [45] - The company's HPV 21 genotyping and quantitative detection system uses a unique mathematical model to quantify viral load, providing more accurate screening for cervical cancer [39]

行业景气度承压，期待拐点出现 ——中国巨石动态跟踪报告 核心观点 ⚫ 事件： 2024 年三季度 GDP 同比增速录得 4.6%，9 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.4%，8 月为 4.5%，23 年全年为 4.6%。作为与国民经济与工业息息相关的玻 纤行业，需求或将逐步迎来改善。 ⚫ 公司产销继续增长，价格下滑影响业绩。公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 77 亿 元，同减 1.2%；实现归母净利润 9.6 亿元，同减 53.4%；扣非归母净利润 6.3 亿 元，同减 50.5%。随着公司粗纱产能和电子纱产能的陆续投产，公司合计销售粗纱 及制品达到 152 万吨，同比增长 22.6%，销售电子布 4.6 亿米，同比增长 12.5%。 但由于玻纤价格下滑，公司业务收入并未明显增长，同时毛利率下降至 21.5%，同 降 7.9pct，从而导致利润出现下滑。 ⚫ 行业周期底部运行，期待改善拐点出现。随着近些年行业内产能的快速增加，导致 供给较为宽松，从而使得玻纤价格高位回落。不过在行业底部竞争也会加剧，中国 巨石受益于产品结构持续优化，预计产品整体价格跌幅将小于业内其他公司。中小 企业盈利压力更大，从而 ...

订单整体平稳，期待智能制造兑现 ——鸿路钢构动态跟踪报告 核心观点 ⚫ 事件：鸿路钢构发布 2024 前三季度经营数据情况，公司累计新签销售合同额人民币 约 219.3 亿元，较 2023 年同期减少 4.3%；其中单 Q3 为 75.7 亿元。钢结构产品产 量约 325.1 万吨，较 2023 年同期增长 0.58%，其中单 Q3 产品产量约 114.5 万吨。 ⚫ 钢材价格下降影响合同额，实际接单量或有上升。24Q1-Q3 公司订单合同额同比下 滑 4%，或因钢价同比下滑所致，由于钢结构商业模式，成本下降会导致产品售价的 下调。根据万得数据，24Q1-Q3， 我国工字钢平均价格为 3966 元/吨，同比下降 7%，若剔除价格因素，我们认为公司接单量整体可能仍然实现增长。此外，在公司 进行产线智能化改造过程中，或许一定程度上也影响了生产效率，在这一背景下公 司钢结构产量仍然小幅增长。 ⚫ 智能制造提升核心竞争力，研发费用影响当期利润。公司已专门成立了智能制造研 发团队，有力推进了平面激光切割机、坡口激光切割机等设备应用。目前主要专注 于将每个环节的管控得到进一步的优化，炼好内功，增强公司的核心竞争力。未来 ...

出海工程龙头，订单稳健增长 ——中材国际动态跟踪报告 核心观点 ⚫ 事件：中材国际发布 2024Q3 经营数据情况，公司 2024 年前三季度合计新签订单 528 亿元，同增 1%；单三季度新签订单 157 亿元，同增 35%。 ⚫ 工程技术服务和高端装备制造订单小幅下滑，运维订单仍然快速增长。2024 年 1-9 月，公司工程技术服务订单 336 亿元，同减 6%；高端装备制造订单为 50 亿元，同 减 7%；生产运营服务订单 131 亿元，同增 36%。工程技术服务订单下滑的原因， 主要源于23年海外需求的集中释放，导致基数较高，从而使得24年需求相对较少。 运维业务中，其中矿山运维订单为 82 亿元，同增 45%，水泥运维 21 亿元，同增 4%，矿山运维已成为重要发力点。 ⚫ 海外业务仍在增长，国内业务继续承压。2024 年 1-9 月，公司境外业务订单为 302 亿元，同增 6%；境内业务订单为 226 亿元，同减 5%。境内业务主要由于近两年国 内水泥行业景气度下行，相关新建和技改需要均较弱，使得公司订单饱和度下降。 海外业务要集中在发展中国家，当前仍处在城镇化建设进程中，需求持续释放，对 于公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.64 CNY per share, based on a 12X PE for 2024 [2][4][5] Core Views - The company has signed new orders totaling 52.8 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a 1% year-on-year increase, with a significant 35% increase in the third quarter alone [1] - The company's overseas business continues to grow, with foreign orders reaching 30.2 billion CNY, up 6% year-on-year, while domestic orders decreased by 5% to 22.6 billion CNY due to a downturn in the domestic cement industry [1] - The company has a solid financial foundation, with a backlog of contracts amounting to 62.1 billion CNY, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, and plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% over the next three years [1] Summary by Sections Order Growth - In the first nine months of 2024, the company’s engineering service orders were 33.6 billion CNY, down 6%, while high-end equipment manufacturing orders were 5 billion CNY, down 7%. However, operational service orders surged by 36% to 13.1 billion CNY [1] - The mining operation service orders increased by 45% to 8.2 billion CNY, indicating a strong growth area for the company [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.23 billion CNY, 3.56 billion CNY, and 3.83 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a positive growth trend [2][5] - Revenue is projected to grow from 45.8 billion CNY in 2023 to 50.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% [3][5] Valuation and Comparables - The report uses relative valuation methods, comparing the company with peers in the engineering construction sector, and notes that the average adjusted PE for comparable companies is 12X [5] - The company is positioned as a leading global provider of cement engineering services, benefiting from synergies with high-quality asset injections and the prospects of carbon neutrality and smart manufacturing [5]

回暖 三季度毛利率承压，期待下游消费需求的 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 24Q3 财报，前三季度实现营业收入 38.7 亿，同比增长 10.3%，实现归母 净利润 3.7 亿，同比增长 5.4%，单 Q3 来看，公司收入和归母净利润分别同比增长 10.5%和 7.8%，基本符合预期。 ⚫ 单 Q3 来看，公司归母净利率同比下滑 0.2pct 至 7.9%，主要原因包括：1）24Q3 毛 利率同比下滑 1.1pct 至 16.5%，我们推测主要系毛利率较低的羊绒业务销售快速增 长所致；2）24Q3 管理费用率同比增长 0.3pct 至 3%，推测是股权激励费用摊销和 增加所致。另外，受益于汇兑亏损的减少，公司的财务费用也有所下降，因此对 24Q3 的净利润有正面贡献。 ⚫ 三季报显示，公司经营现金流保持优良水平。单三季度实现经营活动净现金 2.03 亿 元，远超单季度盈利 1.04 亿元。 ⚫ 产能未来仍将保持稳步扩张态势。具体来看：1）公司总部"60,000 锭高档精纺生 态纱项目"二期所涉及的 15,000 锭设备陆续投产；2）子公司新澳越南"50,000 锭 高档精纺生态纱纺织染整项目" 按计划稳步推进，项目 ...

10 月前 2 周乘用车行业销量延续增长，关 注三季报业绩向上公司 ——汽车行业周报（1014-1020） 核心观点 ⚫ 10 月前 2 周乘用车零售销量实现延续增长，以旧换新政策效果持续释放。据乘联 会，10 月 1-13 日国内乘用车零售销量 82.3 万辆，同比增长 20%，环比增长 17%， 在报废更新及置换更新补贴带动下，国庆期间汽车消费表现亮眼。据商务部，截至 10 月 16 日 24 时，全国汽车报废更新补贴申请量已超过 142 万份，当日新增补贴申 请量首次突破 2 万份；报废更新补贴申请量呈现加速增长趋势，从第 10 万份申请到 第 50 万份申请，用时 45 天；从第 50 万份申请到第 100 万份申请，用时缩短至 38 天。随着汽车报废更新及置换更新政策效果持续释放，预计 10 月及四季度乘用车行 业销量仍有望继续向好。 ⚫ 部分汽车行业公司披露三季度业绩，福耀玻璃、华阳集团等公司表现较好。上周部 分汽车行业公司披露三季度报告或业绩预告，福耀玻璃三季度营收、归母净利润分 别同比增长 13.4%、53.5%，瑞鹄模具三季度营收、归母净利润分别同比增长 38.0%、41.6%；华阳集团三季 ...

科技(688676，买入)、正泰电器(601877，未评级)等。 电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | 看好 | （维持） | | | 9 月电新出口数据承压，静待后续需求复苏 | 国家 / 地区 | | 中国 | | | | 行业 | | 电力设备及新能源行业 | | | | 报告发布日期 | 202 ...

科技(688676，买入)、正泰电器(601877，未评级)等。 电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | 看好 | （维持） | | | 9 月电新出口数据承压，静待后续需求复苏 | 国家 / 地区 | | 中国 | | | | 行业 | | 电力设备及新能源行业 | | | | 报告发布日期 | 202 ...