持续关注钢铁板块的投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 16 周） 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 金价再创新高，积极关注黄金板块投资机 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 13 周） | | | 央行购金空间广阔，投资需求推动金价中 | 2025-03-27 | | 期上涨：——黄金系列报告之一 | | | 持续关注黄金与钢铁板块投资机会：—— | 2025-03-24 | | 有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 12 周） | | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 2025-03-12 有关分析师的申 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.24 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 24 times for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company's digital energy business is experiencing rapid growth, continuously acquiring new projects, which is expected to become a new growth driver [1][10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 1.26 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 2.02 CNY respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 12.70 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with a net profit of 784 million CNY, up 28.0% [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.28 billion CNY, 18.14 billion CNY, and 21.50 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 20.3%, 18.8%, and 18.5% [4][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 20.1% in 2024 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margins are projected to increase from 6.2% to 7.9% over the same period [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.94 CNY in 2024 to 2.02 CNY in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24.6 in 2024 to 11.4 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on a valuation of 167.2 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a projected revenue increase for 2025-2026 due to strong performance from new products [2][9]. - The company has demonstrated effective channel reuse for new products, leading to sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 3.92 CNY in 2023 to 13.79 CNY in 2027 [3][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][10]. Product and Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The company's flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 39 billion CNY in revenue, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink segment saw a remarkable growth of 261.5% [9]. - The company has effectively utilized its 4 million terminal points, leading to strong growth in its new product lines, including "Bup Shui La" and "Guo Zhi Cha" [9].

数字能源业务快速增长，持续获得新项目 定点 核心观点 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -4.97 | -22.23 | 13.5 | 27.1 | | 相对表现% | -5.56 | -16.36 | 14.54 | 21.42 | | 沪深 300% | 0.59 | -5.87 | -1.04 | 5.68 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，新增 2027 年预测，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.26、1.63、2.02 元（原 2025-2026 年为 1.39、1.77 元），可比公司 25 年 PE 平 均估值 24 倍，目标价 30.24 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 新能源车业务配套量低于预期、数字能源业务配套量低于预期、海外工厂盈利低于预 期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 321.47 CNY, based on an estimated equity value of 167.2 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit growth have exceeded expectations, with a forecasted revenue increase for 2025-2026 and projected earnings per share of 9.13, 11.85, and 13.79 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of new product channel reuse and sustained high growth in traditional market bases [1][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 11,263 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 30,570 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.3% [3][15]. - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 2,588 million CNY in 2023 to 8,975 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,040 million CNY in 2023 to 7,173 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 16.4% [3][15]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 43.1% in 2023 to 48.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 18.1% to 23.5% over the same period [3][15]. Product Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 48.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, with a net profit of 9.80 billion CNY, up 47.62% [9]. - The revenue from the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, was 39 billion CNY, growing by 25.7% year-on-year, while the electrolyte drink revenue surged by 261.5% [9]. Market Position and Growth - The company has demonstrated strong growth in various regions, with notable increases in revenue from the Southwest (61.78%) and North China (71.67%) [9]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust distribution network, with 4 million terminal points enhancing its market reach and product availability [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion yuan, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion yuan, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion yuan, down 25.9% year-on-year. The main reasons for the decline in performance are the significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, as well as in the petrochemical sector with MTBE and PVC. Although raw materials like pure benzene and LPG also saw price declines, the extent was smaller, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin. In Q4 2024, there was a significant improvement in the market conditions for MDI and other products, resulting in a quarterly increase in gross margin, but substantial asset impairment provisions and asset write-offs negatively affected net profit [5][10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its sales price, sales volume, and raw material price assumptions based on macroeconomic changes. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 4.37 yuan and 5.23 yuan respectively (previously 5.91 yuan and 6.83 yuan), with a new forecast for 2027 set at 6.40 yuan. The comparable company PE valuation for 2025 is set at 15 times, and due to the company's long-term ROE and historical growth being more prominent, a 15% valuation premium is applied, resulting in a target price of 74.29 yuan, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]. Key Financial Information - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 175.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 182.07 billion yuan, 210.05 billion yuan, 224.90 billion yuan, and 234.10 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.8%, 15.4%, 7.1%, and 4.1% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 16.82 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 13.03 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 13.73 billion yuan in 2025, and further growth to 16.43 billion yuan in 2026 and 20.09 billion yuan in 2027 [8]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2025, before recovering to 17.9% by 2027 [8]. Market Performance - The company's absolute performance over the past week, month, three months, and year has been -8.65%, -19.84%, -19.85%, and -35.27% respectively. In comparison, the relative performance has been -9.24%, -13.97%, -18.81%, and -40.95% against the CSI 300 index [2]. Capital Expenditure and Market Conditions - The capital expenditure intensity has decreased, with a fixed asset increase of 20 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The construction in progress has decreased from a peak of 69.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024 to 47.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a significant reduction in capital expenditure intensity [10]. - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly due to changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty, leading to further declines in oil prices and prices of most bulk chemical products. The impact of the Sino-US trade dispute may affect raw materials like ethane and LPG, although the company has long-term strategic partners in the Middle East to mitigate some of these pressures [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" due to a significant recovery in industry conditions and the company's position as a leading enterprise benefiting from this trend [2][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 21.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.87 billion yuan, a 117.0% increase compared to the previous year [4][8]. - The recovery in the vitamin industry, particularly for Vitamin A and E, has led to a notable increase in prices, which has positively impacted the company's gross margin, reaching 43.18%, an increase of 13.27 percentage points from 2023 [8]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the increasing domestic share of the vitamin market, which has risen to approximately 86% in 2024, as overseas production declines due to various factors [8]. - New projects, such as the methionine project in collaboration with Sinopec, are anticipated to drive sustained growth for the company [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 15,117 - 2024A: 21,610 - 2025E: 23,641 - 2026E: 24,826 - 2027E: 26,496 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2024: 43.0% - 2025: 9.4% - 2026: 5.0% - 2027: 6.7% [4][11] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 2,704 - 2024A: 5,869 - 2025E: 6,271 - 2026E: 6,295 - 2027E: 6,957 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2024: 117.0% - 2025: 6.9% - 2026: 0.4% - 2027: 10.5% [4][11] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.88 - 2024A: 1.91 - 2025E: 2.04 - 2026E: 2.05 - 2027E: 2.26 [4][11] - Target price is set at 28.56 yuan based on a 14x average PE ratio of comparable companies for 2025 [2][5].

金融工程 | 专题报告 时点风险模型 ——因子选股系列之一一三 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 研究动机 2024 年 9 月科技板块因政策变化引发的超预期反弹，暴露了传统指数增强模型在应对突 发性外部风险时的重大缺陷。此类事件驱动型风险具有瞬时性、高波动特征，而传统 Barra 类风险模型依赖缓慢衰减的风格因子进行风控，难以及时捕捉突发风险的短期集聚 效应，导致组合在极端市场环境下出现历史性回撤。基于此，本研究提出时点风险因 子，旨在解决突变型风险对组合的冲击问题。 时点风险因子 针对外部风险事件的突发性，我们创新性提出"时点风险因子"来刻画这种时点的风 险，风险具有集聚性，因此当天高风险的来源在未来短期内仍然是市场的高风险来源， 因此可以依靠这种风险的集聚效应去控制组合的时点风险从而起到对外部事件降波的作 用。 我们通过监测中证全指指数的振幅与成交额突破阈值（5 日均值+1 倍标准差）的突变时 点，以个股当日涨跌幅构建风险因子。当日个股涨跌幅是当日的隐式风险共同作用"定 价"后的结果，这一设计本质上是将政策冲击、流动性突 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 74.29 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by market conditions and asset impairment, with a reported revenue of 182 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion CNY, down 22.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 430.68 billion CNY, a decline of 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30.8 billion CNY, down 25.9% year-on-year. The decline is primarily due to significant price drops in key products such as pure MDI, TDI, and polyether, while raw material prices like pure benzene and LPG fell less sharply, leading to an overall decrease in gross margin [5][10] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported the following financial metrics: - 2023 Revenue: 175.36 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.9% - 2024 Revenue: 182.07 billion CNY, with a growth of 3.8% - 2025 Estimated Revenue: 210.05 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.4% - 2024 Net Profit: 13.03 billion CNY, down 22.5% - 2025 Estimated Net Profit: 13.73 billion CNY, with a growth of 5.3% - 2025 Estimated EPS: 4.37 CNY [8][6] Market Conditions and Strategic Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure intensity, with fixed assets increasing by 20 billion CNY in 2024 and a further increase of 18.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025, primarily from the Fujian base and Penglai project. The second phase of the ethylene project is expected to impact profits mainly in Q2 [10] - The company faces pressure from trade disputes, particularly from changes in US tariffs affecting global economic uncertainty and raw material prices. Despite having long-term strategic partners in the Middle East, short-term cost pressures are anticipated [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" due to the significant recovery in the vitamin industry and the company's strong performance as a leading enterprise in the sector [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a substantial increase in performance, with a revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.95%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 5.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.01%. This growth is primarily driven by the recovery in the vitamin A and E markets, which led to a notable increase in product prices and an improvement in the gross margin of the nutrition products segment to 43.18%, up 13.27 percentage points from 2023 [8]. - The vitamin production in China has been steadily increasing, accounting for approximately 86% of the total output by 2024. The decline in production from overseas companies due to various factors has contributed to the recovery of the vitamin industry, benefiting leading companies like this one [8]. - The company is pursuing new projects in collaboration with upstream petrochemical companies, such as the methionine project and nylon new materials project, which are expected to drive sustainable growth [8]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2023A: 15,117; 2024A: 21,610; 2025E: 23,641; 2026E: 24,826; 2027E: 26,496 [4] - Year-on-year growth in revenue: 2024A: 43.0%; 2025E: 9.4%; 2026E: 5.0%; 2027E: 6.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 2023A: 2,704; 2024A: 5,869; 2025E: 6,271; 2026E: 6,295; 2027E: 6,957 [4] - Earnings per share (yuan): 2023A: 0.88; 2024A: 1.91; 2025E: 2.04; 2026E: 2.05; 2027E: 2.26 [4] - Target price set at 28.56 yuan based on a 14x average PE ratio of comparable companies [2].