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2024前三季度IPO市场总结及全年展望:IPO市场温和回升,持续服务实体经济
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 08:23
Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the IPO market, with expectations of a relatively low-speed issuance in 2024, projecting a total of 70 to 100 new listings and a fundraising scale of around 60 billion yuan [3][6]. Core Insights - The IPO market has shown a mild recovery, with 69 companies listed and a total fundraising of 47.868 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, although this represents a decline compared to 2023 [2][3]. - The average first-day gain for newly listed stocks in 2024 reached 135.59%, with a notable performance in Q3 where the average first-day increase was 144.28% [2][3]. - The issuance valuation continues to decline, with the average PE ratio for new listings in Q3 2024 at 18.88, reflecting a historical low [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. "科创八条" Implementation and IPO Issuance - The implementation of the "科创八条" measures has led to a slight increase in IPO issuance speed, with 25 new listings in Q3 2024, an increase of 11 from Q2 [3][6]. - The new requirement for a minimum holding value of 6 million yuan for subscription to new shares on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been officially implemented [6][7]. 2. IPO Fundraising - The total fundraising amount for IPOs in the first three quarters of 2024 was 47.868 billion yuan, with a significant portion of new listings having a fundraising amount below 1 billion yuan [3][9]. - The average fundraising amount per IPO was 6.94 million yuan, indicating a trend towards smaller offerings [9]. 3. New Stock Performance - The first-day performance of new stocks has been strong, with only one instance of a stock breaking below its issue price in 2024, reflecting a high demand and low supply environment [3][12]. - The average first-day gain for new stocks on the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board was 82.25%, 211.64%, and 99.55% respectively [11][12]. 4. Participation and Subscription Strategies - The number of participating accounts for new stock subscriptions has decreased in 2024, with a notable drop in the number of offline inquiry accounts [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of subscription strategies, indicating that different institutional strategies have led to varied performance in new stock subscriptions [3][6]. 5. IPO Review and Approval Process - The report notes a slowdown in the IPO review process, with only 3 companies accepted for listing in the first three quarters of 2024, and a backlog of 335 projects awaiting approval [3][6]. - The average time from acceptance to listing has extended, particularly for innovative and entrepreneurial boards, now exceeding two years [3][6].
名创优品:海外持续发力,静待旺季表现

Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 07:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso [2] Core Views - The report anticipates that overseas agency growth will exceed expectations in Q3 2024, while domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. The continued expansion of overseas stores is expected to contribute positively in Q4 [2] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the company for 2024-2026 have been lowered to 2.751 billion, 3.342 billion, and 4.023 billion HKD respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.869 billion, 3.448 billion, and 4.132 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 47.40 HKD from 49.60 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The report estimates an overall revenue growth of approximately 18.3% for Q3 2024, translating to an expected revenue of about 4.484 billion HKD. Domestic revenue growth is projected at around 7.0%, while overseas direct and agency market growth rates are expected to be 55% and 28% respectively [2] - The contribution of high-margin overseas direct business is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Store Expansion - The company is expected to add over 100 new stores domestically and 150-200 stores overseas in Q3 2024, aligning with the annual store opening plan of 350-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores [2] - The launch of Harry Potter IP co-branded products is anticipated to drive sales in both domestic and overseas markets, enhancing the willingness of franchisees to open stores and agents to purchase products [2] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the overall gross margin is likely to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-margin products and the release of operational leverage as overseas direct business performance improves [2] - The expected sales and management expense ratio for Q3 2024 is projected at 26.10%, with an adjusted net profit margin of approximately 15.5%, leading to an adjusted net profit of about 694 million HKD [2]
依依股份2024年三季报点评:大客户订单驱动业绩超预期
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 06:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's strong operational capabilities and favorable factors in customer orders and production have led to better-than-expected performance, prompting an upward revision of profit expectations [3] - The company has seen a significant increase in customer orders, with revenue growth driven by major clients and improved capacity utilization [4] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to EPS of 1.01, 1.16, and 1.34 yuan respectively, up from previous estimates of 0.95, 1.09, and 1.26 yuan [4] Summary by Sections Earnings Expectations - The company’s earnings expectations have been raised due to high demand from major clients and positive contributions from capacity utilization and raw material prices [4] - The target price has been increased to 20.93 yuan from 18.59 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 20.8x for 2024 [4] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth is notable, with Walmart's revenue growth slightly below the company's overall performance, while Pets at Home has shown significant recovery [4] - New customer orders from Costco are expanding, contributing to sequential revenue growth [4] Profitability - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin and net margin were 20.7% and 11.1% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease attributed to exchange rate impacts [4] - After adjusting for exchange losses, the net profit for Q3 2024 is expected to increase by over 45% year-on-year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its domestic and international dual circulation strategy, with ongoing expansion of overseas clients and development of its own brand in the domestic market [4] - The high demand in the pet industry and seasonal stocking by channel clients are expected to sustain order growth into Q4 2024 [4]
中煤能源2024年三季报点评:经营稳健,国改排头兵


Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 04:09
股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读: 业绩符合市场预期,山西产量恢复及大海则放量,助力 Q3 产销双升,同时煤化工 经营稳定,毛利抬升。 投资要点: 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 经营稳健,国改排头兵 中煤能源(601898) [Table_Industry] 煤炭/能源 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 黄涛 ( 分析师 ) | 王楠瑀 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | | | | | 021-38674879 | 021-38032030 | | | | | | | | huangtao@gtjas.com | wangnanyu028176@gtjas.com | | | | | | | 登 ...
中国巨石2024年三季报点评:保持强出货能力和高端品定价力
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 02:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 11.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.81%, and a net profit of 1.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.81% [1][2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.27%, and a net profit of 528 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.18% [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain EPS of 0.55, 0.69, and 0.82 yuan for 2024-2026, with a target price of 12.22 yuan [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 20.192 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 15.748 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 6.610 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.215 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 27.2% [3][10]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 7.5% in 2024, increasing to 10.1% by 2026 [3][10]. Sales Performance - The company maintained strong differentiated sales capabilities in Q3, achieving a sales volume of 740,000 tons of yarn, a year-on-year increase of 24% [1][2]. - The sales volume of electronic cloth in Q3 was approximately 170 million meters, with a slight decline in production and sales compared to previous quarters [1][2]. Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slowdown in net new supply, with the company’s long-term cost and product capabilities being key competitive advantages [1][2]. - The report indicates that the company’s ability to maintain pricing power for high-end products remains strong, supported by differentiated product offerings [1][2].
恒玄科技业绩点评:Q3业绩稳步增长,AI端侧带来长期成长
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 01:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 300.00 CNY from the previous forecast of 222.60 CNY [3][9]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance shows steady growth, with revenue reaching 942 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 44.00% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.28%, marking a historical high for Q3. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 142 million CNY, up 106.57% year-on-year and 17.52% quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The growth is primarily driven by increasing demand in the smart wearable and smart home markets, with a gross margin of 34.69% in Q3, showing a sequential improvement [9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in AI edge computing, particularly in products like headphones, smartwatches, and AI glasses [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 942 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 44.00% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 142 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 106.57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.52% [9]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 3.18 CNY, 4.12 CNY, and 5.31 CNY respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 94.3 for 2024 [9][10]. Market Trends - The company is experiencing significant growth in the low-power path and edge AI development, with strong demand for headphones, smartwatches, and AI glasses contributing to rapid growth [9]. - The new generation of BES 2800 process technology, which integrates WiFi6, has led to increased production and sales in overseas markets, contributing significantly to Q3 revenue [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued improvement in gross margins and revenue growth driven by the increasing penetration of 6nm technology in headphones and the expansion of market share in smartwatches and AI glasses [9].
国电电力2024年三季报点评:电量保持增长,现金流持续好转
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 01:23
股 票 研 究 国电电力 2024 年三季报点评 电量保持增长,现金流持续好转 国电电力(600795) [Table_Industry] 电力/公用事业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------|-------|-------|----------------|----------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 于鸿光 ( 分析师 ) | 孙辉贤 ( | 分析师 ) | | | 汪 玥 ( | 研究助理 | ) | | | | | | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | | | | 021-38 ...
天味食品:2024年三季报点评:业绩超预期,结构优化趋势显著
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 01:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a significant trend of structural optimization [1] - The long-term excess returns are anticipated due to product structure improvements driving profitability [7] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 432 million yuan, up 34.96% [7] - The Q3 single-quarter revenue was 897 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.93%, with a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 64.79% [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved by 0.77 percentage points to 38.83%, while the net margin reached 21.19%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points [7] Product and Channel Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from hot pot base, Chinese cuisine seasonings, and sausage and cured meat seasonings grew by 1.1%, 18.1%, and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively [7] - Online channel revenue surged by 55.4% year-on-year, driven by the growth of the 2B brand "Shicui," while offline channels saw a 6% increase, indicating a recovery trend [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for 2024 has been raised to 0.55 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - The target price remains at 21.90 yuan, with adjustments made to the EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7] Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of the seasoning industry, with a focus on health-oriented and regional products for the consumer market [7]
国内“双碳”每周快讯:加快电力装备制造业数字化转型
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 00:38
Group 1: Digital Transformation in Power Equipment Manufacturing - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan on October 23, 2024, to accelerate the digital transformation of the power equipment manufacturing industry, emphasizing its importance for enhancing R&D and manufacturing quality[1] - The digital transformation is deemed essential for improving the operational efficiency of the industry chain and ensuring high-quality development in the power equipment sector[1] - Key tasks outlined in the plan include promoting digital transformation in R&D, production, quality management, and supply chain management[5] Group 2: ESG Bonds and Funds - As of October 20, 2024, there are 6,051 ESG bonds, with a total balance of 12.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.01% from the previous week[6] - The number of ESG investment funds remains at 548, with a total scale of 508 billion yuan, down by 0.11% from the previous week[6] - The Wind carbon neutrality and ESG concept funds have a total of 1,554 and 4,146 funds respectively, with total scales of 2.2 trillion yuan and 4.7 trillion yuan, showing increases of 0.12% and 4.76% respectively[6] Group 3: Renewable Energy Generation - In September 2024, total electricity generation reached 802.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%[9] - Among this, thermal power generation was 545.1 billion kWh, up 9.6% year-on-year, while green energy generation was 257.1 billion kWh, increasing by 3.5% year-on-year[9] - The growth in renewable energy generation is crucial for supporting the country's green and low-carbon transition[9] Group 4: Carbon Market Activity - From October 14 to October 18, 2024, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market was 3.455 million tons, a decrease of 4.3% from the previous week[11] - The cumulative transaction amount during this period was 350 million yuan, reflecting a 2.2% increase from the previous week[11] - The transaction price on October 18 was 101.0 yuan per ton, marking a 3.1% increase from October 11[11]
珀莱雅2024年三季报点评:业绩符合预期,淡季保持稳健增长
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-10-25 00:37
股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.25 ——珀莱雅 2024 年三季报点评 业绩符合预期,淡季保持稳健增长 珀莱雅(603605) 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|-------------------|----------------------| | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 杨柳 ( 分析师 ) | 闫清徽 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38038323 | 021-38031651 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yangliu@gtjas.com | yanqinghui@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880521120001 | S0880522120004 | 本报告导读: 24Q3 公司收入、利润均 20%+增长符合预期,近期双十一第一阶段珀莱雅 ...