Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the aviation industry is expected to see a year-on-year decline in profitability for Q3 2024, with cautious revenue strategies from airlines [5][6]. - The oil shipping sector is projected to experience a decline in VLCC profitability year-on-year, while MR profitability is expected to remain stable [6]. - The report suggests a contrarian investment strategy for both aviation and oil shipping sectors, anticipating recovery in demand and profitability in the medium term [6][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation Industry - For Q3 2024, the aviation sector's ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) is estimated to grow by 11% year-on-year, with a 4 percentage point increase in passenger load factor compared to the same period in 2019 [5]. - Despite the growth in capacity, passenger revenue is expected to decline by over 10% year-on-year, approaching levels seen in Q3 2019 [5]. - Fuel costs are projected to decrease slightly due to a drop in international oil prices, although they remain approximately 30% higher than in Q3 2019 [5]. - The report anticipates that the cautious revenue management strategies of airlines will lead to a year-on-year decline in industry profitability for Q3 2024, with some smaller airlines like Juneyao Airlines expected to perform better than the industry average [5][6]. Oil Shipping Industry - The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) sector is expected to see a significant year-on-year decline in profitability, with average TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rates for Q3 2024 estimated at $28,000, which is below the breakeven point [6]. - The MR (Medium Range) sector's profitability is expected to remain stable, with TCE rates for the Singapore-Australia route estimated at $24,000, showing little change year-on-year [6]. - The report emphasizes a contrarian investment approach for oil shipping, highlighting the robust demand growth driven by trade restructuring and refinery relocations, despite short-term geopolitical pressures [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining positions in key aviation stocks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [6][7]. - For the oil shipping sector, it suggests maintaining positions in China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and China Merchants Industry [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report provides an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2][65]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. September CPI exceeded expectations, which may limit the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, putting pressure on gold and silver prices. However, domestic policies are expected to boost demand, particularly in the industrial metals sector, which is currently in a traditional peak season [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - U.S. September CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 2.3% and 0.1%. Core CPI rose by 3.3%, also exceeding market expectations. The resilience of the U.S. job market suggests limited room for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to inflation concerns. In China, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have signaled significant policy support, which is expected to enhance domestic demand [5][8]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes that the industrial metals sector is likely to perform well due to strong domestic demand and the ongoing peak consumption season. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with additional beneficiaries listed [5][9]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices showed mixed trends, with LME prices down by 0.77% and SHFE prices up by 1.78%. The report indicates that supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material price increases and environmental inspections affecting domestic production [9][16]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to the U.S. inflation data, with SHFE gold at 597.38 CNY per gram and COMEX gold at 2,655.00 USD per ounce. Silver prices also declined, with SHFE silver at 7,686 CNY per kilogram [19][20]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, including the manufacturing PMI in China, which stood at 49.80% in September, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [26]. 5. Profit Forecast for Listed Companies - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rated as "Overweight" based on their projected performance [60].

Investment Rating - The report rates the machinery industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for engineering machinery and railway equipment, driven by fiscal policy initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [4][5] - It highlights the significant decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10% year-on-year from January to August 2024, marking a historical low [5] - The report suggests that infrastructure construction remains a key driver for engineering machinery demand, with earth-moving machinery performing relatively well [5] - It identifies three long-term industry trends: technology-driven sectors, globally competitive equipment manufacturing, and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in overcapacity industries [5] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The report notes that the central government's fiscal policies are expected to stimulate demand in key sectors such as railway equipment, power equipment, and engineering machinery [5] - It mentions that the Ministry of Finance plans to introduce targeted incremental policy measures to support the real estate market and stabilize its development [5] Engineering Machinery Sector - The report indicates that the domestic market for engineering machinery has reached a turning point, with growth driven by replacement demand [9] - It recommends focusing on companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and international market expansions [9] Long-term Industry Trends - The report identifies three major trends: 1. Digital and intelligent upgrades in manufacturing to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [5] 2. Global competitiveness in sectors like engineering machinery and railway equipment [5] 3. Potential for consolidation in industries facing overcapacity [5] Recommended Stocks - The report lists several companies as key recommendations, including: - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion [5] - Oilfield Equipment: Neway Valve, Jereh, and Dewei [5] - 3C Equipment: Optimas, Bozhong Precision, and Kuaike Intelligent [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [3][15]. Core Insights - Tesla's "We, Robot" event introduced new models including Cybercab and Robovan, with Cybercab expected to begin mass production in 2026. The operational cost is projected to be as low as $0.2 per mile, significantly lower than current public transport costs [4][5]. - The Cybercab features a unique design without a steering wheel or pedals, and it is anticipated to support wireless charging. The pricing is set between $0.3 to $0.4 per mile, with a unit price expected to be below $30,000 as production scales up [5]. - The report highlights the advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with plans for unsupervised FSD deployment in Texas and California by 2025, pending regulatory approval [5]. - The Robovan is designed for multi-passenger transport, with operational costs estimated between $0.05 to $0.1 per mile, catering to both passenger and cargo needs [5]. - The Optimus robot is projected to have a price drop to $20,000 to $30,000 as mass production begins, with capabilities for various tasks such as childcare and household chores [5]. Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: Tesla's event showcased the Cybercab and Robovan, emphasizing their cost efficiency and innovative designs [4][5]. - **Operational Costs**: Cybercab's operational cost is significantly lower than current public transport, while Robovan offers competitive pricing for multi-passenger transport [5]. - **Production Timeline**: Mass production of Cybercab is expected in 2026, with enhancements to existing models' FSD capabilities prior to that [5]. - **Technological Advancements**: The report discusses the AI 5 computing platform for Cybercab and the anticipated safety improvements over human drivers [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the machinery industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive impact of fiscal policy on the machinery sector, particularly in engineering machinery and railway equipment, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises. It emphasizes the need to focus on the incremental demand generated by central fiscal policies [4][5] - The report notes a significant decline in real estate investment, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% from January to August 2024, marking a historical low. This has led to a continued downturn in demand for concrete machinery, tower cranes, and hoists, which are heavily reliant on real estate investment [5] - Infrastructure construction is identified as a key driver for engineering machinery demand, with earth-moving machinery (excavators, loaders) showing relatively better performance. The stabilization of the real estate sector is expected to improve domestic demand for engineering machinery [5] - The report discusses historical price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the engineering machinery sector, noting that the current PE (TTM) stands at 22.5 times, which is considered reasonable compared to historical highs and lows [5] - Long-term trends in the industry are identified, including technology-driven sectors, global competitiveness in equipment manufacturing, and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in overcapacity industries [5] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The report emphasizes the central government's commitment to implementing targeted fiscal policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, particularly in the railway equipment and engineering machinery sectors [5] Real Estate Market - The report highlights the ongoing decline in real estate investment, which has negatively impacted the demand for construction-related machinery. The report suggests that the stabilization of the real estate market could lead to a rebound in machinery demand [5] Engineering Machinery Sector - The report forecasts a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector in the second half of 2024, driven by both domestic and international sales growth. It recommends key companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion for investment [9] Long-term Industry Trends - The report identifies three major long-term trends: the digital and intelligent upgrade of manufacturing, the global competitiveness of Chinese equipment manufacturing, and the potential for consolidation in overcapacity sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The export performance continues to show high growth, while there are expectations for domestic sales to improve due to various economic stimulus policies [4][12] - The Q3 export data indicates a significant increase, with appliance exports growing by +23.3% and +18.1% in July and August respectively, and export values increasing by +16.8% and +12.3% [12][19] - The report anticipates that the "old-for-new" policy, which began implementation in September, will significantly boost domestic sales in Q4, leading to a resonance between domestic and foreign sales [4][27] Summary by Sections 1. Overview - Q3 export performance outpaced domestic sales, but the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and economic stimulus measures since September are expected to enhance domestic sales in Q4 [4][19] 2. Company: Q3 Performance Forecast - Leading white goods companies are expected to maintain stable revenue and performance, while emerging categories like cleaning appliances show strong demand [9][19] - The growth certainty ranking for the sector is: white goods > cleaning appliances > components > black goods > electrical lighting > kitchen small appliances > personal care > kitchen appliances [9] 3. Industry: Continued High Growth in Exports, Domestic Sales Awaiting Policy Stimulus 3.1. Exports: Q3 Continues High Growth, Significant Overseas Driving Effects - Q3 appliance exports maintained high growth, driven by volume increases, with notable growth in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [12][19] - The export volume for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August saw increases of +40.1%, +20.7%, and +7.8% respectively [12][19] 3.2. Domestic Sales: Q3 Relatively Flat, Policy Stimulus to Aid Q4 Performance - Domestic sales in Q3 were relatively flat, with white goods showing stability and cleaning appliances performing well [19][22] - The report notes that the "old-for-new" policy has led to significant improvements in sales, particularly during the National Day holiday, with air conditioner sales increasing by +152% [25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Midea Group (2024 PE: 16.0x) and Hisense Home Appliances (12.5x) as they are expected to benefit directly from policy stimuli [27] - For the black goods sector, TCL Electronics (9.2x) and Hisense Visual (12.1x) are recommended, while kitchen appliances like Robam Appliances (12.7x) and Vatti Corporation (13.2x) are highlighted for their potential rebound [27]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price raised to 190.8 RMB [3][5] - The company is a leader in thin-film deposition equipment, benefiting from both advanced and mature process expansions [3][13] Core Views - The company is expected to see sustained high growth in orders due to its leading position in thin-film deposition equipment [1][3] - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2024-2026 revenue estimates of 37.47/52.89/72.08 billion RMB, representing YoY growth of 38.5%/41.1%/36.3% [3][14] - The company's net profit is expected to grow rapidly, with 2024-2026 net profit estimates of 821/1,296/1,910 million RMB, representing YoY growth of 23.9%/57.8%/47.4% [3][14] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 and 2023 was 1,706 and 2,705 million RMB, respectively, with YoY growth of 125.0% and 58.6% [2] - Net profit for 2022 and 2023 was 368 and 663 million RMB, respectively, with YoY growth of 438.0% and 79.8% [2] - EPS for 2022 and 2023 was 1.32 and 2.38 RMB, respectively, with ROE of 9.9% and 14.4% [2] Industry and Market Position - The company is the domestic leader in PECVD equipment, with a market share of over 33% in the thin-film deposition market [3][13] - The global thin-film deposition equipment market is expected to reach 296 billion USD by 2025, with PECVD being the largest segment at 33% [47][48] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of both advanced and mature processes, with PECVD usage in advanced processes increasing by 30-50% compared to mature processes [3][13] Product and Technology - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, including PECVD, ALD, SACVD, and HDPCVD, with PECVD being the core product [3][20] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in advanced processes, with SACVD being the only domestic company to achieve industrialization, and HDPCVD and ALD equipment passing verification in 2023 [3][20] - The company is also expanding into hybrid bonding equipment, which is expected to open up new growth opportunities in 3D NAND and HBM markets [3][13] Orders and Growth Prospects - The company had 64.23 billion RMB in hand orders at the end of 2023, a 39.57% YoY increase [3][13] - New orders in 2024 are expected to exceed 70 billion RMB, driven by downstream wafer fab expansions [3][13] - The company's revenue from thin-film deposition equipment is expected to grow to 36.0/50.4/68.0 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with hybrid bonding equipment revenue projected to reach 0.64/1.50/2.85 billion RMB [14][15] Valuation - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is estimated at 2.95/4.66/6.86 RMB, with a target price of 190.8 RMB based on PE and PS valuation methods [3][13] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 105.58 in 2022 to 20.37 in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for the real estate sector to stabilize and stop declining, with inflation being a primary focus for achieving this stabilization [4]. - The report suggests that the market logic will shift towards changes in inflation and risk-free returns, given the stabilization of housing prices [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the past performance of real estate can be understood through asset pricing principles, where rental yields and housing prices are interrelated [5]. - It highlights that while rental yields are improving, they are not yet at a high level, suggesting that adjustments in inflation and risk-free returns are still necessary [5]. - The report anticipates a shift in policy focus from price signals to credit tools, indicating a potential end to the negative feedback loop of deleveraging and price pressure [5]. Company Earnings Forecast - Key companies and their earnings forecasts are summarized as follows: - Vanke A (000002.SZ): 2023A EPS of 1.02, 2024E EPS of 0.74, 2025E EPS of 0.82, with a current price of 9.10 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - Poly Developments (600048.SH): 2023A EPS of 1.01, 2024E EPS of 0.95, 2025E EPS of 1.01, with a current price of 10.25 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ): 2023A EPS of 0.70, 2024E EPS of 0.79, 2025E EPS of 0.85, with a current price of 10.63 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - China New Group (601512.SH): 2023A EPS of 0.91, 2024E EPS of 0.92, 2025E EPS of 0.99, with a current price of 7.51 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7]. - Binjiang Group (002244.SZ): 2023A EPS of 0.81, 2024E EPS of 0.98, 2025E EPS of 1.10, with a current price of 9.92 and an investment rating of "Accumulate" [7].

[table_Authors] 谢皓宇(分析师) 白淑媛(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 010-83939826 021-38675923 010-83939815 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880518010002 S0880518010004 S0880123070129 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.12 拐点，加强信心的开端 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——对财政部新闻发布会的点评 本报告导读： 财政部召开新闻发布会，是继央行新闻发布会和政治局会议后，又一重要会议，在 此前态度转变的基础上进一步明确，有望创设更多的财政工具，再次提振信心。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 回顾 9 月 24 日央行新闻发 ...

10月11日，特斯拉举办"We，Robot"发布会，展示Robotaxi产品以及Optimus人形机器人。国君研究所多行业联合解读如下： 机械肖群稀：特斯拉机器人亮相特斯拉Robotaxi活动，动作流畅度提升明显，其中灵巧手单独展示设计，指关节动作更加丝滑。马斯克预计量产后的擎天柱 成本大概会降到2万-3万美金，产业链趋势确定性增强背景下，建议重点关注电机、减速器、丝杠、灵巧手关节模组等在内的机器人关键零部件供应商。 汽车吴晓飞：Robotaxi加速快跑，智能驾驶持续推进。无人驾驶出租车有助于提升消费者对智能驾驶的认知程度，里程积累也有助于技术方案完善和迭代； 其面临的潜在市场空间广阔，初期受制于成本和技术等因素，中期维度随着成本下降、技术迭代，智能驾驶渗透率有望逐步提升。 计算机团队：这次的发布会将再次引爆自动驾驶的行情，新的Robotaxi有望从自动驾驶的技术和无人驾驶出租的全新商业模式两方面形成产业突破。自动驾 驶行业重回市场聚光灯下，即将进入快速落地期。投资方向主要有三个。1、掌握自动驾驶技术的互联网公司；2、为互联网公司代工整车及零部件或IT服务 的产业链企业；3、自动驾驶基础设施车路云相关企业。 ...