策 略 研 究 被动再度买入电子，延续流出主要宽基 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——被动资金流动性周观察 本报告导读： 上周被动资金净流出继续收窄，成交占比下降，两融余额回落。科创 50/科创芯片/ 机器人等 ETF 净流入，沪深 300/上证 50/中证 500 等 ETF 净流出。行业层面，电子 时隔五周大幅净流出后，上周重启净流入且规模居首，此外计算机/机械也获净流入。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi020833@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | | 021-38038673 | | | tiankaixuan026724@gtjas.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 外资交易热度抬升，杠杆资金延续流入 2025.03.14 促进企业温室气体信息自愿披露 2025.03.12 沪深 300ETF 延续流出趋势 2025.03.09 银行业保险业绿色金融高质量发展 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.85 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Accumulate" [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that Ping An Bank's revenue growth for 2024 is in line with expectations, while the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders is slightly lower. The asset quality remains stable, and the peak risk pressure in retail has passed. The target price is maintained at 13.85 CNY, with an "Accumulate" rating [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 164,699 million CNY - 2024A: 146,695 million CNY (down 8.4%) - 2025E: 140,552 million CNY (down 10.9%) - 2026E: 143,905 million CNY (down 4.2%) - 2027E: 150,694 million CNY (up 2.4%) [5] - **Net Profit (attributable to shareholders)**: - 2023A: 46,455 million CNY - 2024A: 44,508 million CNY (down 4.2%) - 2025E: 44,645 million CNY (up 0.3%) - 2026E: 46,557 million CNY (up 4.3%) - 2027E: 49,408 million CNY (up 6.1%) [5] - **Net Asset Value per Share**: - 2023A: 20.74 CNY - 2024A: 21.89 CNY - 2025E: 23.46 CNY - 2026E: 25.15 CNY - 2027E: 26.97 CNY [5] - **Return on Equity**: - 2023A: 11.4% - 2024A: 10.1% - 2025E: 9.6% - 2026E: 9.3% - 2027E: 9.3% [5] Market Data - **Current Price**: 11.97 CNY - **Market Capitalization**: 232,289 million CNY - **52-week Price Range**: 9.65 - 12.88 CNY [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of Q4 is 1.06%, consistent with the three-stage ratio. The attention rate and overdue rate have decreased slightly, indicating a stabilization in asset quality [18][19].

收购星鑫航天，拓展上游航天新材料布局 华菱线缆(001208) [Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 目标价格： | | 14.07 | | | 上次预测: | 11.36 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 10.88 | 本报告导读： 公司计划收购上游星鑫航天新材料控股权，借助星鑫航天技术、渠道优势，拓展上 游高附加值耐高温防热材料领域布局。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 3,015 | 3,470 | 3,997 | 4,620 | 5,295 | | (+/-)% | 18.6% | 15.1% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 14.6% | | 净利润（归母） | 110 | 87 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Increase" for the stock of Hongjing Optoelectronics, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [45]. Core Viewpoints - Hongjing Optoelectronics (301479.SZ) is a leading global supplier of optical lenses and camera modules, with a strong market position in automotive cameras and emerging consumer sectors [3][7]. - The company achieved revenues and net profits of 773 million and 116 million RMB respectively in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 75.24% and 176.24% from 2021 to 2023 [9][13]. - The global optical lens market reached 68.28 billion RMB in 2023, with significant growth driven by advancements in smart vehicles and smart home applications [24][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hongjing Optoelectronics specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, and sales of optical lenses and camera modules, with a focus on automotive and emerging consumer markets [3][7]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major automotive brands and has a notable market share in the global automotive optical lens market, ranking sixth with a 3.70% share [7][30]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 251.72 million RMB in 2021, 446.50 million RMB in 2022, and 773.02 million RMB in 2023, with a projected revenue of 450.25 million RMB for the first half of 2024 [9][13]. - The net profit figures for the same years were 15.26 million RMB, 56.45 million RMB, and 116.43 million RMB, with a forecast of 68.52 million RMB for 2024H1 [9][13]. Market Dynamics - The global optical lens market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the integration of digital technologies such as 5G, AI, and IoT, with a projected CAGR of approximately 18% from 2015 to 2023 [24][25]. - The automotive sector is anticipated to see a surge in demand for optical lenses, with the penetration rate of smart connected systems in vehicles expected to reach 83% by 2025 [25][27]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies key competitors in the optical lens market, including Sunny Optical Technology, Yutong Optical, and others, highlighting the competitive nature of the industry [31]. - Hongjing Optoelectronics has a competitive edge due to its established relationships with Tier 1 automotive suppliers and its innovative product offerings in the smart home sector [30][31]. IPO and Fundraising - The company plans to issue 15.89 million shares, raising approximately 488 million RMB to enhance production capabilities and R&D efforts [32][33]. - The funds will be allocated to capacity expansion projects, the establishment of a research center, and working capital [33][34].

宏观研究 / 2025.03.17 平稳开局后,关注政策落地与外部风险 -2025年1-2月经济数据点评 本报告导读: 2025年1-2月经济数据整体平稳开局,1-2月月度 GDP 拟合结果为5.3%,消费和投 资均有改善的积极信号。下一阶段将进入两会部署的各项扩内需政策的验证期,二 李度经济内外都面临更大的不确定性,可能小幅走弱但预计不会明显失速。后续终 端服务价格将是判断居民部门预期是否改善的重要标准。 投资要点: 资增速回升的主导因素是土地购置费的回落和竣工回暖,延续了 12月以来土地购置对地产投资的扰动,地产市场的回暖仍需谨慎 判断;广义基建增速提升,延续2024年四季度以来中央主导的水 利投资增速高,而地方主导的交运、公共设施低的特征,表明甚建 投资增量仍主要由中央财政支出支撑;设备购置投资增速延续 12 月的回升趋势,增量两新资金的落地使用将持续支撑投资。 信贷弱并非降息的充分条件 2025.03.16 通胀降温或为暂时,仍需警惕"滞胀交易" 2025.03.13 春节错位并非通胀回落的主因 2025.03.09 关税并非出口回落主因 2025.03.08 "五个统筹"下的七大亮点 2025.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 30.80 CNY per share, up from the previous forecast of 28.61 CNY [2][15]. Core Views - The report highlights that active trading in the fourth quarter has driven the company's performance growth, with a continued optimistic outlook for the company's earnings due to high market trading volumes and the integration of AI capabilities to enhance competitiveness [3][15]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 11,081 million CNY, which is expected to increase to 11,604 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.7%. By 2025, revenue is projected to reach 13,743 million CNY, marking an 18.4% increase [6][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 8,193 million CNY, anticipated to rise to 9,610 million CNY in 2024, representing a 17.3% growth. By 2025, net profit is expected to reach 12,213 million CNY, a 27.1% increase [6][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.52 CNY in 2023 to 0.61 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.77 CNY in 2025 [6][16]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is reported at 385,641 million CNY, with a current share price of 24.43 CNY [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 9.96 CNY to 30.00 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Investment Drivers - The report identifies active trading in the capital markets and a sustained demand for wealth management among residents as key catalysts for growth [5][15]. - The company’s commission income is expected to increase by 23.07% to 61.13 million CNY in 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the active trading environment will continue to support the company's performance, with daily average stock trading volumes reaching 1.56 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80% [15]. - The integration of the "Miaoxiang" financial AI model is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and open up new growth opportunities [15].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 海洋通信龙头，新时代铸深海科技利器 亨通光电(600487) ——公司更新报告 电信运营 [Table_Industry] /信息技术 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 23.06 | | | 上次预测: | 23.06 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | | 16.90 | 本报告导读： 政府报告提及深海科技，公司作为海洋通信龙头打破寡头垄断； 海底信息观测持 续发展，公司具备全产业链产品能力。海洋通信能力或被市场低估。 投资要点： [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 11.87-19.17 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 41,688 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 2,467/2,445 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | ...

策 略 研 究 生育补贴加速落地，内需与科技轮动前行 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ---主题风向标 3 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 热点主题仍呈现轮动特征，顺周期方向在当下具备更小交易阻力，看好政策催化密 集的内需消费和涨价周期品。推荐：人口战略/AI 智能体/自主可控/并购重组。 投资要点： 主题三：自主可控。政府工作报告指出，推进高水平科技自立自强， 强化关键核心技术攻关和前沿性、颠覆性技术研发。国家创业投资 引导基金设立在即，引导金融资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技， 有望带动地方资金、社会资本近 1 万亿元，将聚焦人工智能、量子 科技、氢能储能等前沿领域。推荐：1、受益政企端 AI 资本开支提 升拉动的服务器电源/液冷等领域国产化；2、受益自主化水平提升 和关键技术突破的先进半导体、军工装备和前沿新材料。 主题四：并购重组。上交所提出完善适应科技型企业特点的再融资、 并购重组、股权激励、股份减持等配套制度。发改委主任郑栅洁指 出，完善并购重组、份额转让等政策，鼓励发展并购基金，畅通创 业投资退出渠道，实现技术链、产业链、供应链的市场化重构。并 购重组有望推动资本市场行业结构升级，引 ...

需关注 2 月社融的两面：数据本身和政策导向 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 利率策略周报 本报告导读： 2 月社融数据显示实体融资需求仍有待提振，但央行货币政策表态相对谨慎，这在 短期中可能导致 3 月债市持续承压，但二季度"择机降准降息"落地可期，引导债 市新一轮下行行情。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.16 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao026130@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(研究助理) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue028687@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123070142 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 再论网格策略：加仓节奏和止损线设置 | | --- | | 2025.03.10 | | 降息从不确定到谨慎，3-4 月降准更可期待 | | 2025.03.10 | | 一季度末，配置力量可能偏好止盈大于支撑 | | 2025.03.09 | ...

| [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 樊夏俐(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38031654 | 021-38031025 | 021-38676666 | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090006 | 各地积极发布育儿补贴细则，政策超出预期 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 ——家电行业 2025W11 周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 投资要点： 家用电器业《平台费率正优化，小家电利润率有 望改善》2025.03.12 家用电器业《3000 亿特别国债支持以旧换新，楼 市回稳奠基》2025.03.09 家用电器业《楼市健康发展奠基，国补拉动内销 稳增》2025.03.06 家用电器业《厨电告别成长股模式，转型价值股 新征程》2025.03.04 家用电器 ...