电解铝：大浪淘沙，强者恒强。随着矿山开采年限变长，国内环保安全方面政策趋严，国内矿石资源相对紧缺，叠加 印尼矿出口被禁，几内亚矿山增产速度放缓且扰动频发，资源端话语权增大，同时上游较高的集中度，为产业链利润 向上转移创造了条件。2024年氧化铝和铝土矿利润增厚明显，电解铝盈利空间受到压缩，产业定价机制转变已然发 生。2025年矿端释放依旧难以及预期，作为供给刚性约束环节，价格将持续坚挺，也将为电解铝价格提供有力支撑。 铜：从预期走向现实，迎"通胀"立地开花。尽管25年主力铜矿规划增量80万吨，但考虑干扰率以及老化矿山的减 量，实际增量或不及预期，由于精炼铜产能大量投放，矿端偏紧仍为供给主基调；需求端考虑国网南网持续上调投资 额计划，预计25年电力需求有望维持接近3%的高增速。综合看供需平衡表，精炼铜虽有所过剩，但考虑矿端的偏 紧，以及贸易、加工环节，整体铜行业偏紧格局维持，全球库存或维持低位。 锂：潜龙伏渊，破晓在望。现阶段市场对于低价持续下，供应端将逐渐缓慢"出清"的观点较为一致，对价格预期的主 导权更多由下游需求掌控。而在强需求现实下，市场对需求未来中长期预期逐渐乐观；股价通常领先商品价格运行， 后续需求 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The public utilities sector is currently at historically low absolute valuations [1] Core Views - The government's priority for the power industry has shifted from "reducing electricity prices" to "ensuring supply security" and "low-carbon transition" [2] - Power companies need to ensure reasonable expected returns for thermal power projects to stimulate investment enthusiasm [2] - Increased capital expenditure on new energy is required to meet clean and low-carbon transition needs [2] - The power system reform is progressing, with new energy market entry accelerating and time-of-use pricing mechanisms being introduced in some provinces [3] - Thermal power is gradually transitioning from base-load power to regulating power due to the development of new energy [3] Investment Opportunities Thermal Power - Three non-cyclical factors (capacity electricity price support, reduced financing costs, long-term coal cost locking) are driving the weakening of industry cyclicality [4] - Overall profitability stability of thermal power has improved, but regional profit differentiation exists [4] Hydropower - High-quality large hydropower projects are recommended for reverse layout, regardless of water inflow pressure [4] Nuclear Power - Long-term implied return rates are worth attention [4] Wind and Solar Power - High-quality stocks with excellent locations and high wind power ratios should be selected [4] Gas - Focus on the improvement trend of free cash flow and the enhancement of dividend value [4]

Investment Recommendation - Overweight recommendation: Focus on companies with upward product momentum and high growth elasticity, strong brand momentum leaders, and those expected to bottom out and potentially rebound [1] Industry Trends - Post-2022 consumption pressure and 2023 consumer destocking, the beauty and personal care industry saw a recovery in 2024 with normalized purchasing cycles and improved industry sentiment, evidenced by double-digit growth in online beauty sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [2] - Intensified competition post-channel红利消退, with platform traffic and price competition heating up, leading to further brand differentiation [2] - The rise of new domestic brands in beauty and personal care, with strong performance from leading domestic brands due to organizational efficiency in product innovation and channel operations [2] Structural Opportunities - Personal care transformation: Content e-commerce creates new environments for product launches and marketing, with brands strong in product innovation and operations likely to break through [3] - Affordable consumption: Continued trend of cost-effectiveness driven by supply-demand resonance, benefiting brands with strong supply chains and superior operations [3] - Emotional consumption: Emotional value drives demand for culture, style, and experience, benefiting domestic makeup and fragrance personal care [3] - Ingredient innovation: Recombinant collagen supply-side ingredients and category evolution catalyze demand expansion, maintaining high popularity [3] Key Companies - Anticipated significant recovery in market risk appetite by 2025, with the beauty and personal care sector benefiting from numerous changes and the overall rise of domestic brands, showing clear growth attributes [4] - Intensified brand differentiation at the fundamental level, recommending bottom-up selection of companies with product and channel changes and elasticity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on AI-driven growth and domestic substitution opportunities [1][2] Core Views - Semiconductor autonomy and controllability remain a key theme in the tech sector, with a focus on advanced process platforms and CoWoS advanced packaging [1] - AI is driving an upward trend in the semiconductor industry, with advancements in PC, mobile, and server upgrades, leading to increased utilization rates in advanced processes [1] - AI Agents are accelerating the empowerment of hardware terminals, enhancing user experience across various devices [1] - Cloud providers continue to increase Capex, with domestic GPUs facing development opportunities and breakthroughs in advanced processes [2] Industry Analysis Semiconductor Industry - AI is leading the semiconductor industry's upward trend, with domestic manufacturers making progress in mature processes and mid-to-low-end products, gradually moving towards high-end segments [1] - The industry is benefiting from AI-driven upgrades in PCs, mobile devices, and servers, with growth in areas like HBM and 3D NAND [1] - Domestic substitution is expected to be a main theme in future tech upgrades, with a focus on advanced processes, advanced packaging, HBM, and equipment [2] AI and Hardware Integration - AI Agents are being commercialized, enhancing hardware terminals such as mobile phones, PCs, and wearable devices, leading to a significant improvement in user experience [1] - The integration of AI with hardware is driving a qualitative change in user experience, with the industry chain expected to benefit significantly [1] Cloud and GPU Development - Cloud providers like Microsoft and Google are maintaining or increasing their Capex, with strong demand for Nvidia GPUs [2] - Domestic GPUs, represented by Ascend, are facing development opportunities due to potential export restrictions on GPUs [2] - The domestic semiconductor industry is focusing on breakthroughs in advanced processes and packaging, with companies like SMIC leading the charge [2] Key Companies and Products - The report highlights companies involved in advanced process platforms, CoWoS advanced packaging, and AI-driven hardware integration [1] - New products like Phase 8L and the integration of AI with hardware terminals are mentioned as key areas of focus [1] - The report also notes the entry of new major clients such as Unisoc, Samsung, and Xiaomi [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the industry, particularly favoring leading brokerages with stronger institutional and retail client investment services [4] Core Views - The industry experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company of listed brokerages by 5.93% in the first three quarters of 2024, but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.09% in Q3 2024 [1] - The 924 New Policy has driven incremental funds into the market, leading to a marginal recovery in brokerages' proprietary trading businesses and contributing to the quarter-on-quarter profit improvement [2] - In 2025, capital market reforms are expected to take effect, boosting institutional clients' equity asset allocation and benefiting leading brokerages with stronger comprehensive service capabilities [3] - Retail business is anticipated to grow due to increased demand for equity asset allocation among residents, with ETFs and online customer acquisition expected to contribute to incremental growth [3] - The adjusted revenue of listed brokerages is projected to increase by 9.37% year-on-year in 2025, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to rise by 12.48% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in leading brokerages that have advantages in institutional and retail client investment services [4] - Brokerages with potential to enhance institutional service capabilities through mergers and acquisitions, as well as those with competitive advantages in retail services and financial technology, are also recommended [4]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 特朗普对中东地缘政策 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 及大宗品探讨 国泰君安有色 & 石化研究沙龙 ┣海 \| 12 目 6 日周五 13:30 P.M | | | 浦东新区中国金融信息中心 16 楼 - 国君旗舰店 张楚楚 特朗普对中东地缘政策 13:30-14:15 季先飞 铜的驱动逻辑及行情展望 14:30-15:15 15:30-16:30 蒋舒 黄金展望及逻辑梳理 张楚楚 复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the coal sector, emphasizing the stability of coal prices and the increasing profitability of leading companies [1] Core Views - The coal sector demonstrated resilience in 2024, with coal prices during off-seasons rising compared to 2023, reflecting a stable supply structure since 2016 and the impact of the "Coal Mine Safety Production Regulations" implemented on April 1 [1] - The sector's performance improved, with leading companies returning to positive growth in Q2 and increased mid-term dividends, reinforcing the dividend investment strategy [1] - For 2025, the report predicts a "steady state" for the industry, with coal prices expected to remain stable despite a slight weakening in marginal supply and demand [2] - Supply is projected to increase by approximately 70 million tons from Shanxi, but the actual impact on sales is expected to be less severe [2] - Demand for thermal coal is expected to grow by 2.5-3%, driven by a decline in contributions from hydropower and new energy, while non-thermal coal demand may decline but with a reduced marginal drag [2] - The coal market is expected to have a slight oversupply of 1.2% in 2025, compared to 0.9% in 2024, with coal prices likely to stabilize around 800 yuan/ton [2] Sector Analysis - The coal sector's supply-demand dynamics in 2024 were robust, with coal prices showing unexpected resilience despite downward pressure on downstream demand [1] - The sector benefited from a stable supply structure and increased electricity consumption, which is one of the most certain growth areas in the current macroeconomic environment [1] - In 2025, the sector is expected to maintain its stability, with coal prices having a clear floor and high certainty, making it a preferred choice for long-term investment [2] - Institutional holdings are at the lower end of the five-year median, reducing the risk of further declines, and the high-dividend logic remains attractive in a declining interest rate environment [2] - The sector's fundamentals are expected to remain among the most certain across all industries in 2025, even without policy stimulus [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the intensification of U.S. chip sanctions against China, along with large-scale debt reduction measures by local governments and the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, is expected to drive the innovative computing industry to exceed expectations [1]. Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce has introduced a new round of export control measures against China, marking the largest scale of sanctions to date, with 140 Chinese semiconductor-related companies added to the "entity list" [1]. - Four major industry associations in China have collectively stated that U.S. chips are no longer reliable or safe, urging Chinese companies to exercise caution in procurement [2]. - The Chinese government has established a reliable procurement system, which is expected to lead to an unexpected growth in the innovative computing industry starting from Q4 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Sanctions Impact - The new U.S. sanctions include advanced process semiconductor manufacturing equipment and software tools, as well as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) controls, significantly affecting the semiconductor supply chain [1]. Industry Response - Major Chinese industry associations have expressed a loss of trust in U.S. chip products, suggesting a shift in procurement strategies towards safer semiconductor suppliers, which may create opportunities for rapid development in the sector [2]. Government Initiatives - The Chinese government has initiated a security and reliability assessment system for procurement, which will be mandatory for government agencies, potentially boosting the innovative computing industry [3].

BIS新增制裁140家中国半导体企业，核心变化在制裁半导体设备。根据BIS文件，本次制裁名单涵盖绝大部分中国大陆主流的半导体设备企业，对企业的影 响是更难采购零部件，尤其是美系零部件。本次新增实体清单公司主要包括以下几类：（1）半导体设备厂商：北方华创、拓荆科技、盛美上海等。（2）半 导体制造商：ICRD、福建晋华、晟维旭等。（3）EDA厂商：华大九天及其子公司。实体清单主体不能从事的事项如下：美国受控硬件无法继续采购；美国 受控软件无法延期、更新、采购；美国原厂的服务无法提供。3家半导体公司被移除VEU，分别为中微公司、华虹半导体和华润微。7家晶圆厂被增加了脚注 5限制，禁止任何采用美国技术的公司（包括美系和非美系）向上述中国公司出口含有美国技术的产品，上述厂商采购含美技术的设备、零部件、材料等产品 将受限。 回溯历次制裁，美国的限令都集中在其能管控的地方。1）第一阶段：制裁华为。2019年5月，美国BIS将华为及其附属公司列入出口管制"实体清单"，限 制华为终端的上游芯片。2）第二阶段：通过限制美系半导体设备，制裁大陆先进制程能力。2020年12月，美国BIS宣布中芯国际被列入"实体清单"， 10nm及以 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of comprehensively promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [1] - Despite the complex international environment, the opportunities for BRI development outweigh the challenges [1] - The report highlights the need to deepen infrastructure "hard connectivity," rules and standards "soft connectivity," and people-to-people "heart connectivity" [1] - Significant achievements have been made in the BRI, including the operation of the 100,000th China-Europe freight train, connecting 25 European countries and 227 cities, as well as 11 Asian countries and over 100 cities [2] - From January to October, China's foreign contracted engineering business achieved a turnover of 8842 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with new contract amounts reaching 12629 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase [2] - Non-financial direct investment by Chinese enterprises in BRI countries reached 1894 billion yuan, a 4.3% increase, with new contracted engineering projects amounting to 10566 billion yuan, a 17.1% increase, and completed turnover of 7167 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Belt and Road Initiative Development - The BRI is being pushed towards high-quality development, with a focus on both large-scale projects and smaller, beneficial projects for local communities [1] - The initiative aims to create a more resilient and sustainable development space [1] Achievements and Metrics - The China-Europe freight train has reached a milestone of 100,000 trips, significantly enhancing connectivity between Asia and Europe [2] - China's foreign contracted engineering business has shown robust growth, with notable increases in both turnover and new contract amounts [2] - Chinese enterprises have made substantial investments in BRI countries, with significant growth in both direct investments and contracted engineering projects [2] International Cooperation - The 5th China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held in Chengdu, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to strengthen ties within the BRI framework [2]