股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.22 021-38674633 登记编号 S0880520100002 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 空档期价格承压，期待需求提振价格转暖 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [table_Authors] 王艳君(分析师) wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com 本报告导读： 生猪：中秋节后进入需求空档期，同时大体重猪加速出栏，生猪价格短期承压，预 期在国庆假期前备货，需求提振后预期价格有所好转。种业：四季度是政策密集出 台期，关注政策推动下种业机会。 投资要点： [生猪： Table_Summary] 空档期价格承压，国庆假期前备货预期价格好转。 猪价高位稳定。9 月 13 日~19 日生猪均价 19.07 元/Kg，环比上涨 0.68 元/kg。出栏体重整体稳定，根据涌益咨询数据，出栏体重 125.48kg，环比持平。 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_subIndustry] 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.21 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|----------------------------------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | [Table_Industry] 有色金属 \n增持 | | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | 降息众生相，预期摇摆依旧 ——有色及贵金属周报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿 ( 分析师 ) | 兰洋 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38031027 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | lanyang028684@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S088 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------------------------| | | 股票研究 /[ | Table_Date] 2024.09.20 \n[Table_Industry] 环保 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | 关注碳市场扩容带来的投资机会 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|--------------------|-----------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 徐强 ( 分析师 ) | 邵潇 ( 分析师 ) | 于歆 ( 分析师 ) | ...

[table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) 吴浩东(分析师) 王思玥(研究助理) 021-38676647 010-83939780 021-38031024 liuxinqi@gtjas.com wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880515050001 S0880524070001 S0880123070151 行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.20 股 票 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： 投资银行业与经纪业《新新国十条出台，头部险 企竞争优势有望强化》2024.09.17 投资银行业与经纪业《看好负债成本下降以及业 绩持续改善带来的非银配置机会》2024.09.08 投资银行业与经纪业《非银板块中报普遍超预 期》2024.09.01 投资银行业与经纪业《财报季，建议增持保险》 2024.08.25 投资银行业与经纪业《保险财报有望超预期，建 议增配》2024.08.18 新规优化对券商投资股票、做市等业务的风 ...

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 吴晓飞(分析师) 管正月(分析师) 周逸洲(研究助理) 0755-23976003 021-38032026 010-83939811 wuxiaofei@gtjas.com guanzhengyue@gtjas.com zhouyizhou028696@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880517080003 S0880521030003 S0880123070150 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.21 乘用车板块性行情不断强化 [Table_Industry] 汽车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——汽车行业周报（2024.9.16-2024.9.20） 本报告导读： 随着地方以旧换新等刺激政策持续推出，乘用车销量有望继续复苏，板块性机会将 不断强化；特斯拉有或在 10 月 10 号推出 Robotaxi，带动智能驾驶产业链的持续表 现。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 乘用车板块性行情不断强化。随着地方以旧换新等刺激政策持续推 出，乘用车销量有望继 ...

| --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.21 [Table_Industry]传播文化业 国庆档电影蓄势待发，8 月游戏市场表现优秀 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|---------------------|-------------------|-------|-------------------------|----------------------------------------|---------------| | | | ——传媒行业周报 | 2024 年 37 | 期 | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | | | [table_Authors] 陈筱 ( 分析师 ) | 陈俊希 ( 分析师 ) | 李芓漪 ( 分析师 ) | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.26 CNY [4][5]. Core Views - The company's core products are experiencing high turnover and increasing market share, with capacity expansion reinforcing the competitive advantage of its flagship product, Guoyuan. The de-stocking cycle highlights the company's competitive edge, and the logic of market share will continue to strengthen [4][14]. - The company has recently invested in 20,000 tons of new raw liquor capacity, bringing total raw liquor capacity close to 60,000 tons. This expansion is expected to significantly support product pricing and market share growth for the Guoyuan series [4][14]. - The demand for mid-range and lower-tier products remains relatively inelastic, with the Guoyuan series showing strong growth in core markets. The company is focusing on deepening channels in markets outside its home province [4][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 at 3.04 CNY, 3.67 CNY, and 4.26 CNY respectively [4][11]. - Revenue projections are set at 12,362 million CNY for 2024, 14,685 million CNY for 2025, and 17,023 million CNY for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 22.4%, 18.8%, and 15.9% respectively [11][14]. Market Position - The company is expected to benefit from a de-stocking cycle, with market share becoming a more significant indicator of brand influence than pricing. The focus will shift towards maintaining market share over product structure and profit margins [4][14]. - The Guoyuan series is currently in a product dividend period, aligning well with consumer trends, and its capacity advantages are anticipated to be gradually released [4][14]. Operational Insights - The company is observing a clear operational differentiation trend among enterprises, with the demand for mid-range products remaining robust. The Guoyuan series continues to lead in growth rates in both the northern and southern markets [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qiaqia Food with a target price of 32.59 CNY [3][4][11] Core Views - The company is expected to see improvements in both costs and revenues in Q3 2024, likely entering a recovery phase. Factors contributing to this include channel improvements, inventory replenishment, and demand recovery, particularly in the seeds and nuts segments [2][10] - The introduction of a stock incentive plan for 2024 is anticipated to enhance team motivation and accelerate improvements in the company's performance [3][11] - The snack food sector remains a stable performance area, with Qiaqia Food benefiting from channel reforms and product diversification, suggesting a high probability of sequential improvement in performance in the second half of 2024 [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7,631 million CNY, reflecting a 12.1% increase from 2023. Net profit is expected to reach 972 million CNY, a 21.1% increase from the previous year [4][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the upcoming years are 1.92 CNY for 2024, 2.47 CNY for 2025, and 2.81 CNY for 2026 [3][4][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve in Q3 2024 due to a decline in raw material costs [10][11] Market Data - The stock has a market capitalization of 13,836 million CNY, with a current price of 27.29 CNY, within a 52-week price range of 24.10 to 38.29 CNY [5][4] - The company has a net asset return rate of 14.5% for 2023, projected to rise to 15.3% in 2024 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) [4][6][19] Core Views - The company has announced a share repurchase plan with an investment of 3-6 billion RMB, following a previous commitment to a 75% dividend payout, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in achieving a 15% total revenue growth target for the year [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The company is responding positively to national policies and has planned a share repurchase of 3-6 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance market confidence. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected at 68.41 RMB, 78.82 RMB, and 90.11 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 2240.12 RMB based on a 33X price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 [4][6] - The share repurchase plan, announced on September 20, aims to buy back and cancel 1.67-3.34 million shares, representing 0.13%-0.27% of the total share capital, at a maximum price of 1795.78 RMB per share, which is a 42% premium over the closing price on that date [4][6] - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% over the next three years, indicating strong shareholder return policies [4][6] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 150.56 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected growth of 15.3% to 173.56 billion RMB in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 85.94 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 15% increase [12][14] - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a net profit margin of 52.7% in 2022, projected to remain stable in the coming years [12][14] Market Position - Guizhou Moutai is positioned as a leading player in the liquor industry, with a strong market presence and operational flexibility to adapt to market changes. The company has been actively managing product pricing and inventory to stabilize market conditions [4][12] - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a healthy inventory level and manage pricing effectively, which is crucial in the current market environment [4][12]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating with a target price adjustment to CNY 30.50 [3][4] Core Views - Performance meets expectations with strong growth in overseas markets and AI high-power power supply benefiting from demand from international leading companies [2][3] - Revenue and non-GAAP net profit show rapid growth: H1 2024 revenue reached CNY 4.011 billion, up 22.05% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 19.27% YoY to CNY 315 million [3] - Overseas business performance is outstanding: H1 2024 overseas revenue was CNY 1.394 billion, up 34.24% YoY, with a gross margin of 31.23%, 8.25 percentage points higher than domestic business [3] - AI server shipments are growing, with global AI server shipments reaching 1.18 million units in 2023, up 34.5% YoY, and expected to grow 41.5% in 2024 to 1.67 million units [3] Financial Highlights - Revenue forecast for 2024E is CNY 8.486 billion, up 25.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach CNY 777 million, up 23.5% YoY [8] - EPS for 2024E is projected at CNY 1.54, with a P/E ratio of 14.78x [8] - ROE is expected to increase from 14.2% in 2023A to 15.2% in 2024E [8] - Gross margin for 2024E is forecasted at 25.6%, slightly higher than 24.9% in 2023A [8] Overseas Market Expansion - The company has been expanding overseas for a decade, with R&D centers in the US and Europe, and representative offices covering North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia [3] - Manufacturing capabilities have been established in India and Thailand over the past five years [3] - Smart home appliance control products revenue in H1 2024 was CNY 2.006 billion, up 43.55% YoY, driven by overseas demand and domestic equipment renewal policies [3] AI and High-Power Power Supply - Power supply products revenue in H1 2024 was CNY 1.097 billion, up 13.05% YoY, accounting for 27.36% of total revenue [3] - The company is collaborating with a leading international company on AI server power supply needs, indicating significant future market potential [3] Valuation and Market Data - Current price is CNY 22.25, with a 52-week price range of CNY 18.92-31.15 [5] - Market capitalization is CNY 11.213 billion, with total shares outstanding of 504 million and A-shares of 416 million [5] - P/B ratio is 2.4x, with a net debt ratio of 10.78% [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 6.754 billion in 2023A to CNY 13.453 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21.9% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from CNY 629 million in 2023A to CNY 1.109 billion in 2026E [8] - ROE is forecasted to rise steadily from 14.2% in 2023A to 16.3% in 2026E [8]