Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The recent US non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000[10] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2022, indicating a weakening labor market[10] - The job vacancy rate has declined for two consecutive months, with the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals falling below 1, suggesting that demand is weakening faster than supply[1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates has increased, with market pricing indicating a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September[10][30] - Historical trends show that US stocks typically perform well during rate-cutting cycles, supporting a bullish outlook on the stock market[2] - Risks include a potential unexpected recovery in the job market and persistent inflation, which could delay the Fed's rate-cutting schedule[3][31] Group 3: Currency and Inflation Trends - Since April 2025, the US dollar index has weakened, but the difference between the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates has not significantly decreased, indicating potential appreciation expectations for the RMB[2] - Eurozone inflation is showing a steady decline, with the overall HICP year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.1% in August 2025, close to the inflation target[10]

发布时间：2025-09-08 1 1 证券研究报告 联创光电（600363.SH） 传统主业经营效益向好，高温超导和激光新业迈入快速成长期 股票投资评级：增持|首次覆盖 马强 中邮证券研究所 军工团队 中邮证券 投资要点 • 联创光电于1999年由江西省电子工业局整合旗下部分优质资产成立，2001年在上交所挂牌上市。公司布局大功率激 光器件及装备、高温超导磁体及应用、智能控制部件、背光源及应用、电线电缆等产业板块，在南昌、吉安、深圳 和厦门均设立了产业基地。公司先后获评"国家863计划成果产业化基地"、"国家知识产权优势企业"。 • 公司产业结构调整卓有成效，激光、高温超导等高科技壁垒产业逐步进入商业化落地阶段。2019年，公司提出"进 而有为，退而有序"主体战略，要求一切工作均围绕"效率"和"效益"开展，明晰产业升级方向，确定传统产业 发展路径，公司发展开创新局面。自2019年起，公司逐步对部分盈利能力较差的资产业务进行剥离，对LED、线缆 等传统产业进行转型升级，大力推动高温超导和激光产业等新兴产业发展。 • 高温超导：参股子公司联创超导承担高温超导业务，以高温超导磁体技术为核心，涵盖高温超导可控核聚变 ...

发布时间：2025-09-08 大盘指数 3000 4000 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《业绩之锚 3：定价困境反转的中报季》 - 2025.09.04 配置方面，个股α逻辑优于行业β逻辑，挖掘个股"困境反转" 逻辑。3 月以来持续调整的以 AI 应用、算力链、光模块为代表的 TMT 成长方向也将迎来估值修复的机会，结合当下出现的产业积极变化， 仍有进一步上行空间。在《业绩之锚 3：定价困境反转的中报季》指 出买中报"业绩超预期"并不能获得持续相对收益，"困境反转"是中 报季更有效的业绩挖掘策略，在行业层面 2025 年中报仍缺乏业绩验 证的主线机会，更应该重视自下而上的个股α机会。基于"跨报告季 业绩预期差"的筛选策略构建了 2025 年中报个股业绩超预期组合， 以致力于在 9-10 月中获取来自个股α的超额收益。 ⚫ 风险提示： 经济数据不及预期、中美摩擦加剧、地缘冲突 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-09-08 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《苹果推出 Xcode 26 Beta 7，英伟达 开源 Jet-Nemotron 高性能语言模型— — AI 动 态 汇 总 20250901 》 - 2025.09.03 《双创涨速明显提升，ETF 资金配置思 路偏补涨——行业轮动周报 20250831》 - 2025.09.01 《指数上行重返十年高位，涨幅超 10% 芯片相关 ETF 净流出较多——行业轮动 周报 20250824》 – 2025.08.25 《非银爆发虹吸红利防御资金，指数料 将保持上行趋势持续挑战新高——行 业轮动周报 20250817》 – 2025.08.18 《融资余额新高，创新药光通信调整， 指数预期仍将震荡上行挑战前高—— 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250810 》 – 2025.08.11 《ETF ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:金晓杰 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100010 Email:jinxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《苹果推出 Xcode 26 Beta 7，英伟达 开源 Jet-Nemotron 高性能语言模型— —AI 动态汇总 20250901》 - 2025.08.04 《小市值占优，低波反转显著——中邮 因子周报 20250727》 - 2025.07.28 《微盘股的流动性风险在哪？——微 盘 股 指 数 周 报 20250720 》 - 2025.07.21 《大金融表现居前助指数突破，GRU 行 业轮动调入非银行金融——行业轮动 周报 20250713》 - 2025.07.14 《低估值高盈利，基本面表现占优—— 中 邮 因 子 周 报 20250706 》 - 2025.07.07 《基于宏观经济状态划分的 BL 模型与 ETF 实践》 - 2025.07.01 金工周报 2025.09.03 《微盘股中报资金 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that gold has reached a new historical high, driven by inflation pressures and expectations of interest rate cuts, suggesting a positive outlook for precious metals [3] - Copper prices may rise if a soft landing is achieved due to interest rate cuts, despite recent fluctuations [4] - The cobalt market is experiencing a collective price increase for cobalt intermediates, indicating strong demand and a positive outlook for the sector [5] - Lithium prices are expected to improve as supply concerns ease and demand from energy storage continues to grow [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6548.93, with a weekly high of 6635.29 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper down by 1.48%, aluminum down by 0.72%, zinc down by 0.28%, lead down by 0.53%, and tin down by 1.41%. In contrast, COMEX gold rose by 1.12% [20][21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes include an increase of 22,871 tons in copper, 6,382 tons in aluminum, and 4,906 tons in nickel, while lead saw a decrease of 12,163 tons [28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and others for potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.234 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 806 million yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [7]. - Despite a decline in pesticide prices, the company's raw material sales volume increased, contributing to revenue growth. The raw material business generated 3.655 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.98% increase year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 13.43% [7]. - The company is recognized as a global leader in the pesticide industry, with continuous breakthroughs in research and development, significantly increasing its product range and market competitiveness [7]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.328 billion yuan, 1.576 billion yuan, and 1.774 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.28, 3.89, and 4.37 yuan [8]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 73.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 29.8 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 4.05 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.66 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 17.587 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.90% to 1.831 billion yuan [5]. - The company is accelerating its global expansion and increasing R&D investments, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green product upgrades [5]. - The company has established production bases in various locations, including China and overseas, with a planned annual production capacity of 31.55 million all-steel radial tires and 109 million semi-steel radial tires [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.76%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 792 million yuan, a decrease of 29.11% [5]. - The average price of self-produced tires increased by 5.85% year-on-year, while the overall procurement price of key raw materials rose by 0.82% [5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 4.206 billion yuan, 5.001 billion yuan, and 5.945 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.52, and 1.81 yuan [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production end heat declines overall, real - estate market improves marginally, price trends are differentiated, and shipping prices drop slightly with a decrease in aviation flights after the summer vacation. Short - term focus includes the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, real - estate market recovery, and overseas interest - rate cuts [2][30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production - Steel: In the week of September 5, the coke oven capacity utilization rate dropped 0.09 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased 2.8 pct, and the rebar output reduced by 1.88 tons. The inventory increased by 1.72 tons [3][9] - Petroleum asphalt: In the week of September 3, the operating rate decreased 1.2 pct [9] - Chemicals: On September 4, the PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate increased 1.64 pct [3][9] - Automobile tires: In the week of September 4, the full - steel tire operating rate dropped 4.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 5.3 pct [3][10] 3.2 Demand - Real estate: In the week of August 31, the commercial housing transaction area increased for two consecutive weeks, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, the land supply area reached the highest since February, and the residential land transaction premium rate rebounded [3][13] - Movie box office: In the week of August 31, the box office decreased by 112 million yuan compared with the previous week [13] - Automobiles: In the week of August 31, the average daily retail sales of manufacturers increased by 35,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 81,000 vehicles [3][15] - Shipping index: In the week of September 5, the SCFI decreased 0.04%, the CCFI continued to decline 0.62%, and the BDI decreased 2.27% [3][18] 3.3 Prices - Energy: On September 5, the Brent crude oil price decreased 3.85% to $65.5 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price dropped 2.51% to 1,127.5 yuan per ton [3][20] - Metals: On September 5, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.05%, - 0.63%, and + 1.55% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price rose 0.61% [3][21] - Agricultural products: The overall price continued to rise seasonally. The wholesale price index of agricultural products increased 0.91%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.50%, + 1.18%, + 3.85%, and + 1.31% respectively compared with the previous week [3][23] 3.4 Logistics - Subway passenger volume: On September 4, the subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased [26] - Flight volume: On September 5, the domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan), and international flight volumes decreased [27] - Urban traffic: On September 5, the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to decline [27] 3.5 Summary - The production end continues to decline, and the real - estate market improves marginally. High - frequency economic data focuses on the production end decline, real - estate market improvement, price differentiation, and shipping price and flight volume drops. Short - term focus includes anti - involution and incremental policies, real - estate market recovery, and overseas interest - rate cuts [30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in operating performance, with a revenue of 1.307 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 140 million yuan, up 64.36% year-on-year [5][6] - The company achieved a gross margin increase of 4.01 percentage points to 21.4% in H1 2025, while the expense ratio also saw an increase [7] - The company is actively expanding its global channels and has established a strong customer resource advantage, covering over a hundred countries and regions [7] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 669 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 83 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70.4% [6] - The company’s revenue from high-pressure cleaning machines and general power machinery grew by 36.24% and 17.73% respectively in H1 2025 [6] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.8 billion, 3.364 billion, and 4.001 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 276 million, 337 million, and 406 million yuan [8][10] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.00, 13.93, and 11.56 respectively [8][10] - The company’s market capitalization is 4.5 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 172 million shares [4]